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Larrry
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 01, 2010 4:17 pm    Post subject: Russian weather Reply with quote
Has the Russian weather scare run its course or will we see another hot market Monday?
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Steve
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 01, 2010 4:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Quote:
Temperatures will top 100 degrees (38 Celsius) during the next 10 days in Russia

Wheat rose to a 13-month high, while corn and soybeans extended gains, as hot, dry weather damaged crops from Russia to France, boosting demand for supplies from the U.S.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-07-29/wheat-rises-to-13-month-high-on-hot-dry-weather-in-russia-corn-soy-gain.html


Quote:
The heat wave gripping Russia has led to the worst drought in more than 100 years. Huge areas of crops have been wiped out,

Hot summers are not unusual even in northern Russia, but this year temperatures have soared to record levels, withering crops and causing health hazards.

Even before the wildfires, many farmers in European Russia were facing bankruptcy as the drought parched grain crops and pasture lands. SovEcon, the Moscow-based agriculture consultancy, warned last week that Russia’s grain harvest would drop by at least 20 per cent this year to 70m-75m tons, barely enough to cover the nation’s needs. Many small farmers are slaughtering livestock, unable to afford the surging cost of animal feed.

US wheat futures rose more than 5 per cent on Friday after warnings that Russia, one of the world’s top grain exporters, could halve supplies to world markets this year.


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Oldtimer
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 01, 2010 4:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
$10-15 bushel wheat would be about what it should be in comparison to what production costs have gone up..Could shoot the hell out of fall calf prices- but make the cost effective cattle that need the least grain to finish worth more....

Remember, the last time they had a severe drought in Russia- Nixon was in office and Earl Butz was the Sec of Agriculture- and negotiated a big wheat deal with Russia. Changed grain markets, land values, and livestock markets.

When I think of Earl Butz's name it reminds me of all the beautiful grassland that should have never been torn up- and never was or will be worth that much as cropland...

But his "Plant fence row to fence row," preachings and big Ag policies had folks out ripping up prairie- and the dust a flying...Lot of it ended up in CRP because it was so worthless as cropland- but lots of great short grass grassland will never be the same..

He was the start of the ending to the family farm when his policies caused overproduction and bottomed out prices in the 80's with the farm depression and tens of thousands of family farms went under- and the beginning of major corporate Ag with his "Get big or get out" preachings...
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Larrry
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 01, 2010 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Just a good example of Gov screwing up anything it touches. Still happening and people are still looking for the gov to solve their problems. Will they ever learn.

Ot, I'll sell you as much wheat as you want for 9.00 and then when it gets to ten or fifteen you can reap the profit.
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Steve
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 01, 2010 5:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Quote:
Nixon was in office and Earl Butz was the Sec of Agriculture- and negotiated a big wheat deal with Russia. Changed grain markets, land values, and livestock markets.


and then just as things were really looking up....
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Oldtimer
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Joined: 10 Feb 2005
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Location: Northeast Montana
PostPosted: Sun Aug 01, 2010 5:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Larrry wrote:
Just a good example of Gov screwing up anything it touches. Still happening and people are still looking for the gov to solve their problems. Will they ever learn.

Ot, I'll sell you as much wheat as you want for 9.00 and then when it gets to ten or fifteen you can reap the profit.


Actually thats the number I was thinking would be a good sell number without getting too greedy and holding out for something that might not be there.... That was my magic number 2 years ago- and it worked out great- sold just above $9 before it started its downhill spiral....

Also just got a phone call from the north place and the wheat there is just filling- and got a nice .65 inch of rain in a little storm that went thru an hour ago... Very Happy Very Happy
The next two weeks forecast is for above 90 degree days- which should help make sure there is some protein too..Some of these river bottom fields may make 70-80 bushel and acre... Very Happy
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Larrry
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Joined: 23 Jul 2007
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 01, 2010 5:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Good luck on the wheat. I am getting a little spooked on the price. I can live with the price right now, don't want to be too greedy. I'll probably leave that last dime for some other brave soul
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Oldtimer
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 01, 2010 6:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Larrry wrote:
Good luck on the wheat. I am getting a little spooked on the price. I can live with the price right now, don't want to be too greedy. I'll probably leave that last dime for some other brave soul


I'll not get too greedy....Not locked in anywhere so I can play around a little... I've seen too many folks that had bin full after bin full of $9-10 wheat that they were holding out for $12- that was now worth $4... Wink Razz

First have to get the wheat in the bin before the white reaper thats been getting so many up here....This storm we got today had hail in parts of it...We just lucked out it wasn't at our place...

I'm wondering how much all this will effect the cattle tho...I can't believe how the demand for old cow and bull meat has stayed up-- and all predictions are that this year will have the lowest calf numbers in years (decades ?)..

Also some of the oriental markets are opening up a little more (finally)- and Canada has a deal to start marketing in China- so that should lower supply too..
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Oldtimer
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Location: Northeast Montana
PostPosted: Mon Aug 02, 2010 11:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote
This was on PB- but since PB has very few ranch involved folks on there- I thought I'd move it up here to see if we could get some more ideas/theories on what this Russian drought will do...

Its about the hottest topic on the Ag blogs....
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Oldtimer
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 02, 2010 12:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
Wheat up this morning- then back down a little on what they are calling profittaking....

Heres a tidbit I picked off the internet this morning:

Quote:
Gulke learned long ago that you can’t argue with the technicals—the charts often tell you something is going on in the markets that you can’t readily appreciate in the fundamentals. The charts for wheat, corn, soybeans, bean oil and maybe bean meal all are now long on both a weekly and monthly basis, he says. “This generally means we will see an upward bias for the next 12 to 18 months.”

“It could be we are in about the same situation we were in 2008,” says Gulke. “Now, we need something catastrophic to happen to not be in a bull market.”



And some of the blogs I'm reading believe cattle prices will end up going up right along with the grain... More demand than supply.... Smile
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Larrry
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Joined: 23 Jul 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Aug 02, 2010 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
About all I can see other than the weather in Russia is that the market is feeding of itself and no one wants to miss the top like they did a couple years ago. The dollar has been weaker though.

???????????
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Mike
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Joined: 10 Feb 2005
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Location: Montgomery, Al
PostPosted: Mon Aug 02, 2010 4:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote
OT wrote:

Quote:
Remember, the last time they had a severe drought in Russia- Nixon was in office and Earl Butz was the Sec of Agriculture- and negotiated a big wheat deal with Russia. Changed grain markets, land values, and livestock markets.


Don't forget Jimmah Cahtahs famous "Grain Embargo".
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