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Key economic indicators

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Larrry
Rancher
Rancher

Joined: 23 Jul 2007
Posts: 5560
Location: The good ole USA

Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 7:49 am Post subject: Key economic indicators

If the price of calves reach 1.60 in remote MT If you see an oil rig driving down the road in remote MT If welfare and food stamps are available in remote MT If these key indicators are met then the economy must be good

Lonecowboy
Rancher
Rancher

Joined: 10 Feb 2006
Posts: 1880
Location: eastern Montana

Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 9:28 am Post subject:

you know larry I live in remote MT- I see $4.00 fuel- groceries higher, higher- price of everything higher- I'm going to a bull sale this afternoon- last year their pass out price was $1500- this year I'm guessing it will be over $2000.00 are the bulls worth any more- I think not- our money is just worth less because of inflation. there are consequences to keeping the printing presses running. the only thing we have here are jobs- most of us 2 or 3 jobs , somewhat to make ends meet but mostly to get things done that need done. there is nobody else to do the work.

Larrry
Rancher
Rancher

Joined: 23 Jul 2007
Posts: 5560
Location: The good ole USA

Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 11:54 am Post subject:

Lonecowboy wrote:

you know larry I live in remote MT-

I see $4.00 fuel-
groceries higher, higher-
price of everything higher-

I'm going to a bull sale this afternoon- last year their pass out price was $1500- this year I'm guessing it will be over $2000.00 are the bulls worth any more- I think not- our money is just worth less because of inflation. there are consequences to keeping the printing presses running.

the only thing we have here are jobs- most of us 2 or 3 jobs , somewhat to make ends meet but mostly to get things done that need done. there is nobody else to do the work.

Yes agriculture prices look good on the surface, but add in the input costs and you get a drasticaly different picture. All I have to do is look at my taxes and deductions and how they have skyrocketed.
We better get those prices for cattle or we are in trouble in the ag community. Printing money and the inflation it brings is going to bite us in the rear bigtime in the future.

Oldtimer
Rancher
Rancher

Joined: 10 Feb 2005
Posts: 24735
Location: Northeast Montana

Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 12:41 pm Post subject:

Lonecowboy wrote:

Well Lonecowboy- you know you don't have to go out and buy a 5-10K bull--there are still a lot of places that are selling bulls for $2000 or less...Often the same breeding or type- as good or better bulls, but without all the emotion and commotion high dollar promotion- and a high dollar prefix before the bulls name...

Now for me when I look back- I would have to say I'm better off than the Bush days...Altho we had record prices on cattle when the Canadian border was closed- GW's folks quickly went against their own scientific policy and got that reopened so the Packers could get to their captive supply of cheap cattle...
Now we have record cattle prices- good wheat and grain prices (last few years $8-10)-- a forecast of the cattle prices to stay good for several years- cheap feed (hay is $55 Ton around here)...And yes while gas is high- it was $4 when GW was President- and just the last couple of months its dropped under $3 in parts of Montana...But we didn't have the good cattle/grain prices to pay for it like now....And anybody that wants a good job can easily get one.....

And I made some bad decisions...With the forecast for another tough winter I sold all the steer calves and bulls last fall-- and could have gotten much higher prices if I had held onto them thru the new year...But I'm not upset- I came out good with the prices I got- and I'm low input- not one of those that spends the winter in Aruba- or going around to every cattle show- or needs a new pickup/tractors every year-- financing it off the backs of the high prices they then need to get from their neighbors for their bulls ...

No all in all- even with the costs of the tough winter and the flooding - and the loss of wheat production I had last year- this will be a better year than I ever had when GW was in there.. Altho sometimes I think maybe he is the one to thank- since his low cattle prices drove many out of business and gave us the smallest cattle herd in 50 years- and he was the father of the Bush Bust- which devalued our dollar and set up the sales of beef and grain overseas to markets we never had before... Wink

Like Pat Goggins has long said- a good old depression/recession can be good for the cattle market....

Hereford76
Member
Member

Joined: 13 Dec 2005
Posts: 814
Location: North Central Montana

Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 1:11 pm Post subject:

Oldtimer wrote:

Lonecowboy wrote:

Like Pat Goggins has long said- a good old depression/recession can be good for the cattle market....

wow... most of the time its just fun to listen to you guys banter back and forth - but this had to be the biggest load of bs i've ever read.

see how blindly following a forecast can cost you - same goes for the political forecast you adhere to also.

pat goggins - for the love of god! reading your comments to me are like one big oxymoron when you talk about conservation within your cattle. i agree with about everything you talk about with your cows - but it contradicts anything you say politically.

the best days this place will have ever known where before bse and the rcalfers helped close the border - and you think thats why we saw higher prices. now i work with a 10 cent freight disparity going south instead of a free backhaul going 100 miles north.

Oldtimer
Rancher
Rancher

Joined: 10 Feb 2005
Posts: 24735
Location: Northeast Montana

Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 1:18 pm Post subject:

Hereford76 wrote:

the best days this place will have ever known where before bse and the rcalfers helped close the border - and you think thats why we saw higher prices. now i work with a 10 cent freight disparity going south instead of a free backhaul going 100 miles north.

And see- in our area we only had about two years (2000-2001 ?) that any cattle went north....Vold boys bought a bunch on the video auction....Otherwise every Canadian truck came south loaded and went back north empty....

It got a little sad to watch rancher after rancher being foreclosed on look out at the highway and watch all the semis hauling cheap Canadian cows south....

Hereford76
Member
Member

Joined: 13 Dec 2005
Posts: 814
Location: North Central Montana

Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 2:11 pm Post subject:

Oldtimer wrote:

Hereford76 wrote:

ya those american calves coming back fat broke everyone! you must be referring to the canadian outfits that were foreclosed on - didn't know you had any sympathy for the canadians. pat got his in the end.

Oldtimer
Rancher
Rancher

Joined: 10 Feb 2005
Posts: 24735
Location: Northeast Montana

Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 10:40 pm Post subject:

Hereford76 wrote:

Oldtimer wrote:

Hereford76 wrote:

Nope Hereford-- I was sold into the idea back years ago by the future President of the NCBA that NAFTA was a good thing- and for that reason I supported it... As he put it to me- when it goes thru- we can take our calves north to the feedlots- or as he and his ranch planned- take calves north to all the unused grazing lands- and then in the fall move them into the feedlots with all the barley they have---A WIN-WIN FOR ALL----
BUT
After NAFTA came to be-- the Canadian ranchers made sure they put so many health rules and restrictions and ownership rules and restrictions on US cattle going north- that 99% of that never came to be....And all we in this part of the country saw was bullhaulers headed south- taking away the livelihoods of many farmer/ranchers- some of which were 2nd/3rd generation..... Sad

That is the reason R-CALF came into existence- and the reason you will find so many from the prairie regions of this country and eastern MT that supported it.....
And the reason that same NCBA President became against the reopening of the border- and almost got strung up by his lifelong friends when he jokingly mentioned going to the NCBA convention and supporting opening the border at a going away party for one of the Northern Ag broadcasters....

Maybe you had better dealings with Alberta- but over here with SK they pretty much told us (US) to shove it- with their rules that no one could operate in Canada without having a Canadian partner that you gave 51% ownership to...

NAFTA was the biggest screwup of the past 50 years for costing Americans jobs and losing the US business's..... If folks want to trade than it has to be FAIR trade with the rules the same going both directions....

Hereford76
Member
Member

Joined: 13 Dec 2005
Posts: 814
Location: North Central Montana

Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 11:39 pm Post subject:

Oldtimer wrote:

Hereford76 wrote:

Oldtimer wrote:

Hereford76 wrote:

well i wasn't sold into anything. one politician pushing policy for a win win situation for himself until it turns around to bite him in the ass. then another political group pushing policy for a win win for goggins and every calf that didn't go north. my opinion of why rcalf came into existance is different from yours. we sent calves up there every year til it closed. no freight figured in, no shrink, slide both ways, and goggins didn't get his cut. its pretty easy to sidestep him anymore.

Lonecowboy
Rancher
Rancher

Joined: 10 Feb 2006
Posts: 1880
Location: eastern Montana

Posted: Thu Feb 02, 2012 11:51 pm Post subject:

Oldtimer wrote:

Lonecowboy wrote:

Like Pat Goggins has long said- a good old depression/recession can be good for the cattle market....

oldtimer it's not the ammount of dollars in your hand it's what you can buy with those dollars! the price of almost everything is up! if you can't see that you are a fool. Shocked

and you decieve yourself, but hardly anyone else.

by the way- the bulls averaged 3950!

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