Market Takes Off

[Oldtimer]

Cattle Market Comments - Ann Barnhardt

Today 3/9/2005 1:30:00 PM


Low-Carb Market Wrap



What a day in the cattle market. The futures opened modestly higher, and gradually strengthened throughout the session. April Cattle did touch limit-up at $92.25, but finishing at $91.45 as the Goldman Roll suppressed April and pushed June into new highs at the close. Cash trade was seen mid-morning at $150 and $92, but feedyards quickly began passing as the futures continued their steady climb. As of this writing, $94 is trading in the North, and we await trade in the South. It will take at least $93, and probably $94 to move cattle this week.



Today's Cattle Kill = 119,000
Week Ago = 118,000
Year Ago = 119,000
Week to Date = 357,000
Same Period Last Week = 356,000



A.M. Boxed Beef
Choice $153.59 up $2.33
Select $147.90 up $1.33
240 Loads Fab
109 Loads Trim & Grind



Source: Ann Barnhardt, Commodity Broker, Risk Management & Marketing Consultant, www.Barnhardt.biz

[Oldtimer]

Hot Cattle Market: Dressed Sales Way Up

Today 3/9/2005 12:33:00 PM


Hot Cattle Market: Dressed Sales Way Up



Trading moderate to active in Nebraska at mid-day on very good demand. Compared to last week, live sales are trending 3.00 to 4.00 higher at mostly 93.00 with dressed sales selling 7.00 to 8.00 higher at 150.00. Light trading in Colorado earlier Wednesday morning with dressed sales trending 5.00 to 6.00 higher than last week at mostly 148.00. Trading remains inactive in the Southern Plains with buyer inquiry fairly light.

Note: prices are based on net weights FOB the feedlot after a 3-4% shrink unless otherwise noted. Dressed prices based on hot carcass weights delivered to the plant.



Today’s Reported Sales Volume: 11,000


PRICES PAID TODAY:

LIVE DRESSED DRESSED
STEER/HEIFER STEER/HEIFER STEER/HEIFER
(CASH) (CASH) (GRID BASE)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

TX/OK/NM NONE NONE NONE

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS NONE NONE NONE

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Select and Choice Select and Choice
NEBRASKA 93.00 150.00 NONE

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Select and Choice
COLORADO NONE 148.00 NONE

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Tommy]

I wonder why?

[Oldtimer]

In The Cattle Markets: No Cattle Could Cross Border In 2005

by James Mintert, KSU Today 3/9/2005 2:24:00 PM


In The Cattle Markets: No Cattle Could Cross Border In 2005



Judge Cebull’s decision last week to grant a preliminary injunction in favor of R-CALF USA means that no fed or feeder cattle will cross the border from Canada to the U.S. this week, and possibly not for a long time. Perhaps in response, fed and feeder cattle futures prices rose sharply last week. Nearby live cattle futures rose nearly $3/cwt. and nearby feeder cattle futures jumped over $4/cwt. From a marketing perspective, producers have to decide if the response to last week’s news is transitory or likely to be long lasting?



If this case proceeds to trial, it could take a long time before a decision is reached. Although a specific time line has not been released for this trial, there is a good chance preparation for trial will be quite lengthy. If that holds true, it could be 2006 before a final decision is reached. And that implies no cattle will cross the border from Canada to the U.S. in 2005.



If you now assume that the U.S. will not import cattle from Canada during 2005, and that the markets prior to last week anticipated cattle being imported during 2005, how does it change price expectations? The answer of course depends in part on how many cattle were going to be imported during 2005.



Although there were many forecasts regarding how many cattle might be imported from Canada to the U.S., several forecasts suggested that annual imports would range from about 800,000 to 900,000 head, if Canada continued to export boxed beef near the level observed last year. Cattle imports at this level would likely lead to a price change of about 2 to 3%, which is in line with the change in live cattle futures prices observed last week. So, it looks like last week’s increase in futures prices was near the expected long term reaction to an ongoing ban on imports of Canadian cattle.



In The Markets

Slaughter cattle prices last week were higher in both Kansas and Nebraska. Slaughter steer prices in Kansas improved to $90/cwt. last week, 3.6% higher than the previous week and 5.9% higher than a year ago. Dressed steer prices in Nebraska averaged $142.35/cwt. (dressed weight), 4% above the previous week’s average and 5.2% higher than last year. Boxed beef prices also improved last week, although the increase was more modest than the rise in cattle prices. USDA’s weekly average Choice boxed beef cutout value increased to $141.74/cwt. compared to $139.24/cwt. the prior week. Feeder cattle prices increased last week in both Nebraska and Kansas. Prices for 700-800 lb. feeder steers reached $104.76/cwt. in Kansas, $2 higher than the prior week. Nebraska prices for the same weight steers averaged $106.48/cwt., $1 higher than a week earlier.






Last Week
Previous Week
Last Year

Kansas Fed Steer Price, live weight
$90.00
$86.88
$84.98

Nebraska Fed Steer Price, dressed weight
$142.35
$136.88
$135.33

700-800 lb. Feeder Steer Price, KS 3 market average
$104.62
$102.59
$91.28

500-600 lb. Feeder Steer Price, KS 3 market average
$127.67
$126.81
$108.73

700-800 lb. Feeder Steer Price, NE 7 market average
$106.48
$105.40
$94.01

500-600 lb. Feeder Steer Price, NE 7 market average
$131.78
$131.24
$115.81

Choice Boxed Beef Price, 600-900 lb. carcass
$141.74
$139.24
$138.36

Choice-Select Spread, 600-900 lb. carcass
$2.44
$2.46
$6.91

[Manitoba_Rancher]

OT

You should keep gloating about these big prices by keeping the border closed. Keep it up and you will loose consumer interest in the US. You should face it you will never get into the Japanese market again!

[Kate/wy]

Our markets will come back down and fill that gap way down below, I do believe, so not to worry.

[Bull Burger]

OT, was the market coming up before the injunction? Does the live market trend up this time of year normally?

[Oldtimer]

[Bull Burger]

[Bull Burger]

Oldtimer, you still haven't commented on the poll that showed 77% of producers don't want or don't care about MCOOL. What's up?


If MCOOL means added costs to the producer:

I'm still in favor even if it means less money for my calves. 22% [ 2 ]

I'm not in favor even if those phony surveys say it'll work. 55% [ 5 ]

I don't care about MCOOL, period. 22% [ 2 ]

Total Votes : 9

[Kato]

Alberta Cattle Industry Market Report
March 9, 2005


REPLACEMENT TRADE
Information provided on this report is supplied by various auction markets throughout Alberta. In reference to the following prices, producers are reminded to check with individual markets on current prices and trends. Prices quoted include top quality cattle only.

Feeder and stocker prices in Northern Alberta yesterday:




Steers U.S. $ Heifers

900+ 78.00-87.50 (64- 72.2) 70.00-80.00

800-900 82.00-93.50 (67.66 - 77.16) 73.00-83.50

700-800 90.00-100.25 ( 74.25 - 82.72) 80.00-93.00

600-700 98.00-108.50 (80.86- 89.53) 90.00-100.00

500-600 107.00-119.00 ( 88.29 - 98.2) 94.00-105.00

400-500 110.00-122.00 98.00-107.00

300-400 100.00-111.00 97.00-106.00



In the cow and bull trade in Northern Alberta yesterday:

D1, D2 cows D3 cows Bulls

22.00-28.00 16.00-22.00 26.00-37.50

U.S. $ 18 - 23 U.S. $ 13-18 U.S. $ 25- 31

The Canadian Dollar at 8:00am was trading at 82.52,

[Kato]

That didn't come out so clear. The prices in brackets are after conversion to U.S. money.