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Long Term Effects of Blood Bath in Fed Cattle

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Denny
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Re: Long Term Effects of Blood Bath in Fed Cattle

Postby Denny » Fri Jun 17, 2016 2:34 pm

550# Calves for fall delivery on Superior had a tough time getting to $850 a head yesterday
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Re: Long Term Effects of Blood Bath in Fed Cattle

Postby redrobin » Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:23 am

Yesterdays close made me vomit in my hands. It looked like the rope broke in Aug feeders. The real bloodbath may have just begun. You knock the Dow down a couple thousand and corn go to 6 and it will be ugly.

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Re: Long Term Effects of Blood Bath in Fed Cattle

Postby Brad S » Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:33 pm

WB wrote:The equity being lost in the feedlot sector currently will be reflected in the future prices of feeder cattle. Bankers are going to be more than a little gun shy going forward. If you are a cattle feeder and have been able to avoid taking a bullet in the last 12-15 months you are in the minority but there will be better days ahead. At least that is what I keep telling myself.



Explains a lot. Corn price cost feeders $15 so far. I don't know why Feds are down so low, but I think the record high prices of the last 3 years have hurt beef demand (lower prices should be moving beef). This trouble is being accutely felt by the cowman - this is what wb was noting.

This would be a good place for the check off to really get busy, but a suitable response would cost hard cash. The check off has performed extremely well with diminishing real dollars. Now the check off needs to remind people the entertainment value of sharing a nice meal in "hard times" (be very subtle noting hard times but damn sure don't say it)

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Re: Long Term Effects of Blood Bath in Fed Cattle

Postby PPRM » Sun Jun 19, 2016 7:17 am

Brad S wrote:"As far as hedging, we have a pretty good source of cheap feed and with the direct marketing, I haven't figured out a good hedge. Had a group look at it for me and they couldn't either."

You have that right - low cost of gain is the best hedge. Makes me wonder why more feeding hasn't moved back to the cornbelt. Obviously excellent climate down in the panhandle, nothing else down there serves feeding cattle. Well, cheap labor.

As for sorting fats, do you ever work with breathour's people? Sure take the guessing out of the stick. For me, after the third critter, they start to all look alike - I used to be an expert running the in and by gate arguing with my dad about his sorts.

If you got out of this winter wreck ok then you must be Houdini. I think we're already seeing calves that will come close to working -been 2 years at least since I've seen that. I've heard many bankers want a confirmed exit strategy before lending money. I had my first "all mine" cattle in the feedlot when the dairy buy out hit in "86" - talk about knowledge bumps. They were steins at home & dad talked me off the ledge. With cheap cog, I gave away some labor - well, traded labor for education.

We'll know it's safe to get back in the water again when there's money in the upgrade cattle.



I tend to see cattle feeding in areas where by product feeds are viable long term. Education is expensive no matter where you get it.

Never heard of breather's principle. My eyes tend to work pretty well. I look for and sort differently for my direct marketing. They aren't as much fans of fat as Tyson.
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Re: Long Term Effects of Blood Bath in Fed Cattle

Postby Brad S » Sun Jun 19, 2016 9:16 pm

Dr brethour designed an ultrasound program to predict carcass traits with astonishing accuracy. You know the saying "every hand is a winner, every hand's a loser" ? If you know how long to feed them and which grid to submit them, it really helps. Doc is gone now, but his people still offer the ultrasound. Doc won Denver dressed cattle pen so many times they should have changed the name of the award.

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Re: Long Term Effects of Blood Bath in Fed Cattle

Postby DejaVu » Mon Jun 20, 2016 7:58 pm

http://beefmagazine.com/americancowman/ ... ultrasound

a BEEF article about Dr. Brethour and carcass ultrasound

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Re: Long Term Effects of Blood Bath in Fed Cattle

Postby Brad S » Tue Jun 21, 2016 4:15 pm

What a difference s couple days makes: over mon and tues, corn is off $.40
I think this sell off is overdone too - some of the knowed up guys think the acreage report in a week is bullish corn. Off $.40 will sure help some calves.

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Re: Long Term Effects of Blood Bath in Fed Cattle

Postby PPRM » Tue Jun 21, 2016 10:56 pm

Well, then No, I don't use the Brethour Method.

When I was strictly selling to Tyson on the grid, I consistently hit 85 percent choice. The national average is somewhere around 60 percent. So, I think I did ok.

With direct marketing, I am doing a quite a bit leaner target and sending those I don't have a home for to Tyson after feeding them out a bit more.
The difference between a rut and a grave is the depth



PPRM

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Re: Long Term Effects of Blood Bath in Fed Cattle

Postby redrobin » Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:01 pm

Nasty day. Fed cattle aren't the only class of cattle on a blood bath. Calves selling now are fetching 500 less than last year.

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Re: Long Term Effects of Blood Bath in Fed Cattle

Postby Brad S » Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:16 pm

That's a fact rr. Pprm or Denny mentioned that lenders will pull in the feeders and make them only pay what will hedge

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Re: Long Term Effects of Blood Bath in Fed Cattle

Postby Faster horses » Fri Jun 24, 2016 11:19 pm

http://www.northernlivestockvideo.com/c ... saleid=983

A video of some customers calves that will sell on Northern Video on Monday. What a set of cows and calves! They do a really good job managing their cowherd. Will be interesting to see what they bring. The guy who bought them last year has expressed interest in them again. These calves are the ultimate in healthy.
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Re: Long Term Effects of Blood Bath in Fed Cattle

Postby Big Muddy rancher » Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:49 am

Faster horses wrote:http://www.northernlivestockvideo.com/catalog/?lot=26067&saleid=983

A video of some customers calves that will sell on Northern Video on Monday. What a set of cows and calves! They do a really good job managing their cowherd. Will be interesting to see what they bring. The guy who bought them last year has expressed interest in them again. These calves are the ultimate in healthy.


I like those cows. :D :D
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