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U.S. Cowherd expanding

Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2017 11:58 am
by Brad S
Vigorous expansion + low cow culling rate + high rate of heifer retention and for breeding stock. Artificially reduced slaughter tonnages that will increase substantially when cow slaughter increases to normal and heifer retention decreases to normal.






The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Cattle Inventory report counted 93.6 million cattle and calves on Jan. 1 of this year, 2% more than a year ago. Beef cow numbers totaled 31.2 million head, a 3.5% increase from 2016, and 6% more than just two years ago. The beef cow herd is now 2.1 million head larger than the low point of
29 million head in 2014, and the largest since 2010.

Re: U.S. Cowherd expanding

Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2017 12:31 pm
by PPRM
Costco in Korea just announced switching from Australian to US Beef.

6% from two years ago is pretty big. We need a little weaker dollar and a lot more exports and it is still a pretty tall order.

Re: U.S. Cowherd expanding

Posted: Tue Mar 14, 2017 6:02 pm
by Brad S
That sale to Costco represents reopening of Korea which is great news eventhough beef is mostly fungible. The exchange rate is frustrating and the Dollar doesn't seem to have any vulnerability. I quit holding my breath for exchange correction a long time ago.

Re: U.S. Cowherd expanding

Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 5:05 pm
by 4Diamond
When will this cause the board to implode? I like the direction it's heading, heard $132 bid on some fats.

Re: U.S. Cowherd expanding

Posted: Thu Mar 16, 2017 9:22 pm
by PPRM
4Diamond wrote:When will this cause the board to implode? I like the direction it's heading, heard $132 bid on some fats.


I heard the same. Traditionally, Cash Fats have been very strong in April. We kind of set our Fall Calving based on that principle. I'd look at it as a seasonal rise rather than a trend. Do remember what you paid me for that analysis though.

Re: U.S. Cowherd expanding

Posted: Fri Mar 17, 2017 9:15 pm
by Brad S
good call, $1.30 is so much better than $1 or whatever. PPRM is right calling this a grilling season rally, but I think it's more than that also. It could be partly Trump. Also the $1 market was over done.

4 diamond is doing the right thing - tracking the market so he knows when he is looking at the better prices. We may not be quite there, but we're looking at the part of the cycle where a lot of pressure is negative. Cheap corn will keep weights up too.

Re: U.S. Cowherd expanding

Posted: Sat Mar 18, 2017 8:28 am
by DaneG
http://www.cattlerange.com/A-CattleIndustryNews.html

Here is some good reports ,market views and trends.once on the page scroll down.