Not Good

Things that come up in the daily operation of a ranch.
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Not Good

Post by Big Muddy rancher » Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:21 am

https://www.drovers.com/article/updated ... ZUoxIn0%3D

I'm sure this will affect the market or at the least be used to affect the market. :cowboy:


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Re: Not Good

Post by Faster horses » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:01 pm

:(
Glad there doesn't appear to be any injuries.
I hope they can take cattle at other facilities.
I also hope it doesn't affect the market....but it seems everything does. :(
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Re: Not Good

Post by Haytrucker » Mon Aug 12, 2019 11:54 pm

My guess is limit down 3 days, then a 40 second uptick on Thursday to cover the short sales. Friday down 2 dollars. Long term this isn't good. See last Friday's Feeder Flash. No room in not enough plants. Add in the freight on the local captive supply to harvest elsewhere. There goes 5 bucks or more, not counting the loss of 4 percent of the "competition".
Glad I don't own any 1.60 big yearlings

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Re: Not Good

Post by Traveler » Tue Aug 13, 2019 6:09 am

Got quite a few yearlings to be sold in a couple of weeks. Impeccable timing.

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Re: Not Good

Post by graybull » Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:25 am

A Somali became chilled?

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Re: Not Good

Post by Big Muddy rancher » Tue Aug 13, 2019 8:06 pm

On August 7 we could buy livestock price insurance for the week of November 4th 750# at $178 for $4.24/100#
Today for the week of November4th 750# at$162 for $6.52/100#

Today they weren't even selling fat cattle insurance.

It's a pretty handy program. sort of Hedging for dummies. we pay a premium and they lock in dollar and hedge the cattle. supposed to be fully supported by the premiums. Usually the market is better then what you can protect but when stuff like this happens it does set a floor price. Lots of people not using it and I haven't every year but it is pretty good sleep insurance. Earlier this spring you could insure calves for a pretty good price.
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Re: Not Good

Post by Texan » Wed Aug 14, 2019 4:01 am

Well, the boards are predictably wrecked. What a freakin' mess. Hope everybody has enough grass to ride it out for a while with the feeders you don't have sold/protected, but it's drying up quick in a lot of the country.

Here's the gloomy outlook from Cassie Fish's column yesterday for those of you who don't read her. I included the direct link to her column at the bottom so you can check her daily updates.

====================

Perspective

In Cattle Markets by The Beef & Cassandra Fish 08/13/2019

By Cassie Fish

When BSE was found in U.S. in late 2003, the future market priced the worst in 5 days. BSE instantly increased U.S. beef supplies by 10%, much more bearish than the loss of the Finney County plant. This begs the question, is one more day down tomorrow enough? Most active Oct LC has dropped $11.35 from last week’s high and $13.12 under last week’s cash price.

Of course, in 2003, there was no such thing as computer-generated orders determined by an algorithm, so perhaps it is not a fair or accurate comparison. Still, futures must still attempt to fulfill their role of price discovery.

Boxed beef prices are on fire, thanks to the huge loss in immediate beef supplies, resulting in a mad scramble by end users. Cutout prices were already stronger than a year ago and stronger than ever before at this level of production all because of power domestic demand. Look for sharply higher beef prices for weeks to come.

The packer has every incentive to kill as many Saturdays as possible, pulling out all stops to do so, in order to fill orders and capture sales realizations at expanding margins. Look for Saturday fed kills of 60k head, something that occurred during the week ended May 11 this year during a non-holiday week. The Saturday fed kill Memorial Day weekend was 81k head.

A circumstance such as this is a call to pull out all the stops operationally. A weekly fed kill of 510k to 515k head is achievable.

The fed cattle auction in Yankton, S.D. today saw cattle bring $100 to 107.75. There was a rumored bid of $170 dressed in Kansas but that has not been confirmed. It will be interesting to see how packers conduct themselves during this difficult time for cattle feeders. Lower prices are justified due to less demand. The obvious unanswered question is, how much lower.

Northern feedyards are still massively current and cattle are even greener than they’ve been, according to the latest grading data from USDA. Of course, Nebraska plants will likely be hauling many Kansas cattle north, which will slow down the pull-through of cattle in the upper plains and Midwest.

Tensions and anxiety continue to run very high. Yesterday’s downright bizarre USDA corn report hasn’t helped matters, though to cattle feeder, lower feed costs will help (if they actually materialize down the road).

Copyright © 2019 the Beef Read. All rights reserved.

The Beef is published by Consolidated Beef Producers.


https://www.thebeefread.com/

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Re: Not Good

Post by Angus 62 » Wed Aug 14, 2019 9:33 am

Corbitt Wall's commentary today on Feeder Flash needs to be listened to by every producer in the cattle industry. There is only one organization that is actually trying to stand up to the disgrace that has become that packing industry.

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Re: Not Good

Post by Big Muddy rancher » Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:32 am

What did I say in the first post?
"I'm sure this will affect the market or at the least be used to affect the market"

They killed 6000 HD/day and the kill is only down 2-3000/day but by the markets you'd think they lost half the kill plants in the USA. Box beef is sky high, reverse Psychology.
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Re: Not Good

Post by Angus 62 » Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:50 am

The loss of equity that has happened in rural America because of this will be staggering. Packer profits are $500-$600 a head, doubling almost overnight between the drop in fed cattle prices and lying to retailers that there will be some sort of "shortage" making boxed beef prices skyrocket. I don't know how long producers will keep their heads buried in the sand. Continuing to support organizations that are as much at fault by opposing every attempt to curtail the stranglehold the corrupt packing industry has. But the next time you drive through you rural towns and see all the empty buildings you don't have to wonder how that happened. Just look in the mirror.

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Re: Not Good

Post by Traveler » Tue Aug 20, 2019 6:01 am


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Re: Not Good

Post by jodywy » Tue Aug 20, 2019 9:27 am

sheep producers formed Mountain States Coop, yeah they contract with a packer , but have some of their own breakers. All my R calf neighbors complain, I tell form a coop and do your own packing.
"Every once in a while, I’m overwhelmed by the feeling that I’ve done something REALLY STUPID." -Hank (Hank the Cow Dog ,John R. Erickson)

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