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AP Poll - All Even..............

Mike

Well-known member
AP presidential poll: All even in the homestretch

Oct 22 01:23 PM US/Eastern
By LIZ SIDOTI
Associated Press Writer



WASHINGTON (AP) - The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

Three weeks ago, an AP-GfK survey found that Obama had surged to a seven-point lead over McCain, lifted by voters who thought the Democrat was better suited to lead the nation through its sudden economic crisis.

The contest is still volatile, and the split among voters is apparent less than two weeks before Election Day.

"I trust McCain more, and I do feel that he has more experience in government than Obama. I don't think Obama has been around long enough," said Angela Decker, 44, of La Porte, Ind.

More.....................
 

TexasBred

Well-known member
The straw poll on my browser shows:

McCain 55% and 97,789 votes
Obama 43% and 75,363 votes

ACORN doesn't know yet but you can only vote once on this poll.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
I think you're fantasizing again :roll:- or a bad batch of rotgut whiskey :wink: :lol:

RCP Average 10/15 - 10/21 -- -- 50.6 43.0 Obama +7.6

Rasmussen Reports 10/19 - 10/21 3000 LV 2.0 51 45 Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/19 - 10/21 1208 LV 2.9 52 42 Obama +10
Hotline/FD 10/19 - 10/21 782 LV 3.5 47 42 Obama +5
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/18 - 10/20 2384 LV 2.0 51 44 Obama +7
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/18 - 10/20 2299 LV 2.0 52 42 Obama +10
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 10/17 - 10/20 1159 RV 2.9 52 42 Obama +10
ABC News/Wash Post 10/17 - 10/20 1324 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9
GWU/Battleground 10/15 - 10/21 1000 LV 3.1 49 47 Obama +2
Ipsos/McClatchy 10/16 - 10/20 773 LV 3.5 50 42 Obama +8
IBD/TIPP 10/16 - 10/20 1088 LV 3.0 47 41 Obama +6
CNN/Opinion Research 10/17 - 10/19 764 LV 3.5 51 46 Obama +5
Pew Research 10/16 - 10/19 2382 LV 2.5 53 39 Obama +14

Intrade Market Prices for General Election: McCain vs. Obama
Obama 86.7 McCain 13.0

Electoral Polls by State
Obama 364 McCain 171 Ties 3
 
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Anonymous

Guest
RobertMac said:
Stick a cork in your propaganda, OT...the closer it get to election day, the closer all the polls will get.

Actually the RealClear average of polls is widening out the last few days- 2 or 3 points since the Powell endorsement alone...

I actually thought it would be closer by now- especially since these polls don't count the cell phone count- which is mainly young and educated people supporting Obama- and thought to give him another 3-5 point advantage...I thought it would be more like 3 or 4 for an average....
 

RobertMac

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
RobertMac said:
Stick a cork in your propaganda, OT...the closer it get to election day, the closer all the polls will get.

Actually the RealClear average of polls is widening out the last few days- 2 or 3 points since the Powell endorsement alone...

I actually thought it would be closer by now- especially since these polls don't count the cell phone count- which is mainly young and educated people supporting Obama- and thought to give him another 3-5 point advantage...I thought it would be more like 3 or 4 for an average....
At this point, if these polls aren't showing Obama with a double digit lead AND over 50%...IT'S A DEAD HEAT!!!!!!!!!!!! Look at history!!!
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
RobertMac said:
Oldtimer said:
RobertMac said:
Stick a cork in your propaganda, OT...the closer it get to election day, the closer all the polls will get.

Actually the RealClear average of polls is widening out the last few days- 2 or 3 points since the Powell endorsement alone...

I actually thought it would be closer by now- especially since these polls don't count the cell phone count- which is mainly young and educated people supporting Obama- and thought to give him another 3-5 point advantage...I thought it would be more like 3 or 4 for an average....
At this point, if these polls aren't showing Obama with a double digit lead AND over 50%...IT'S A DEAD HEAT!!!!!!!!!!!! Look at history!!!

Looks to me like 9 of the 12 are over 50%- including the average of all...
:wink:
 

hopalong

Well-known member
RobertMac said:
Oldtimer said:
RobertMac said:
Stick a cork in your propaganda, OT...the closer it get to election day, the closer all the polls will get.

Actually the RealClear average of polls is widening out the last few days- 2 or 3 points since the Powell endorsement alone...

I actually thought it would be closer by now- especially since these polls don't count the cell phone count- which is mainly young and educated people supporting Obama- and thought to give him another 3-5 point advantage...I thought it would be more like 3 or 4 for an average....
At this point, if these polls aren't showing Obama with a double digit lead AND over 50%...IT'S A DEAD HEAT!!!!!!!!!!!! Look at history!!!

forget oldtimer to check anything, he cant add or count so it has to be written in one of theos blogs he has read to him every day so he can tell someone which ones to post!!!
 

RobertMac

Well-known member
OT, heard this morning the AP poll was done on "likely voters" without weighting and included a large number of cell phone users...in other words, a true snap shot of voters...or as true as a poll can be. This race is still a toss up..as much as the liberal, drive-by, mainstream media wants voters to think other wise!!!
 
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Anonymous

Guest
October 23, 2008
ABOUT THAT AP POLL.... A few credible national polls have been released over the last couple of days, and most of them offered similar results. NBC/WSJ shows Obama up by 10; Fox News has him leading by nine; ABC/WaPo puts Obama's lead at 11; and Gallup shows an eight-point lead. Nothing especially shocking.

And then, there was that AP/GFK poll released yesterday, which threw a curveball at the political world
.

The presidential race tightened after the final debate, with John McCain gaining among whites and people earning less than $50,000, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll that shows McCain and Barack Obama essentially running even among likely voters in the election homestretch.

The poll, which found Obama at 44 percent and McCain at 43 percent, supports what some Republicans and Democrats privately have said in recent days: that the race narrowed after the third debate as GOP-leaning voters drifted home to their party and McCain's "Joe the plumber" analogy struck a chord.

These results conflicted with all of the other data we've seen of late. That doesn't make it wrong, of course, but it does give one pause.

There may be a temptation on the part of some to believe polls that offer favorable results, and ignore polls that don't. It's not an intellectually honest way of watching a campaign, but it's not uncommon. As such, there were more than a few conservatives who quickly seized on the AP poll as a very significant campaign development.

Are they right? There's reason for skepticism. As Ambinder and Subday noted, 44% of those in the poll's voter sample were self-identified evangelical Christians, who tend to be conservative Republicans. In the last presidential race, evangelicals constituted 23% of voters -- about half the number used in the AP poll.

It's possible, I suppose, that evangelical turnout will be higher this year, but a jump from 23% to 44%? It's very unlikely. In fact, it's practically impossible, and rather foolish to assume as part of the basis for a national campaign poll.

Anyone getting too excited (or too depressed) based on this AP poll is probably making a mistake.

http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2008_10/015323.php
 
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Anonymous

Guest
All polls started after Powells endorsement puts Obama over 50%...

RCP Average 10/16 - 10/23 -- -- 50.4 42.5 Obama +7.9

Newsweek 10/22 - 10/23 882 LV 4.0 53 41 Obama +12
Rasmussen Reports 10/21 - 10/23 3000 LV 2.0 52 45 Obama +7
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/21 - 10/23 2406 LV 2.0 50 45 Obama +5
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/21 - 10/23 2365 LV 2.0 51 44 Obama +7
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/21 - 10/23 1203 LV 2.9 51 41 Obama +10
Hotline/FD 10/21 - 10/23 766 LV 3.5 50 43 Obama +7
ABC News/Wash Post 10/20 - 10/23 1321 LV 2.5 53 44 Obama +9
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
RCP Average 10/16 - 10/24 -- -- 50.4 42.4 Obama +8.0

Rasmussen Reports 10/22 - 10/24 3000 LV 2.0 52 44 Obama +8
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/22 - 10/24 2413 LV 2.0 51 44 Obama +7
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/22 - 10/24 2358 LV 2.0 51 43 Obama +8
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/22 - 10/24 1203 LV 2.9 51 42 Obama +9
Hotline/FD 10/22 - 10/24 869 LV 3.3 50 43 Obama +7
Newsweek 10/22 - 10/23 882 LV 4.0 53 41 Obama +12
 
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Anonymous

Guest
Obama's National Lead Now Averages 8.1%
In the seven national polls today, Obama's lead is roughly stable. He is now ahead by 8.1%.

- Diageo (Obama +7)
- Gallup expanded (Obama +8)
- IBD (Obama +4)
- Rasmussen (Obama +8)
- Research 2000 (Obama +12)
- WaPo/ABC (Obama +9)
- Zogby (Obama +9)


Rundown on all the States
CQ Politics has a rundown of all 50 states discussing the state of play there. Various factors are discussed, including, but not exclusively, the polling data. Here is the conclusion:

Safe Obama California, Delaware, D.C., Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont

Obama Favored Connecticut, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Washington, Wisconsin

Leans Obama Colorado, Maine, New Mexico, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia


Tossup Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota


Leans McCain Arkansas, West Virginia

McCain Favored Arizona, Georgia, Louisiana, Tennessee

Safe McCain Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Kentucky, Mississippi, Nebraska, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wyoming


http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/10/latest-statebystate-general-el-86.html
 

VanC

Well-known member
Here's how Rasmussen has it as of this morning:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/
 
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Anonymous

Guest
RCP Average 10/19 - 10/26 -- -- 50.5 43.2 Obama +7.3

Rasmussen Reports 10/24 - 10/26 3000 LV 2.0 51 46 Obama +5
Gallup (Traditional)* 10/24 - 10/26 2448 LV 2.0 50 45 Obama +5
Gallup (Expanded)* 10/24 - 10/26 2343 LV 2.0 53 43 Obama +10
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby 10/24 - 10/26 1203 LV 2.9 50 45 Obama +5
Diageo/Hotline 10/24 - 10/26 879 LV 3.6 50 42 Obama +8
ABC News/Wash Post 10/23 - 10/26 1314 LV 2.5 52 45 Obama +7
IBD/TIPP 10/22 - 10/26 886 LV 3.0 47 44 Obama +3
Newsweek 10/22 - 10/23 882 LV 4.0 53 41 Obama +12
GWU/Battleground 10/20 - 10/26 1000 LV 3.1 49 46 Obama +3
CBS News/NY Times 10/19 - 10/22 771 LV -- 52 39 Obama +13
FOX News 10/20 - 10/21 936 LV 3.0 49 40 Obama +9


Intrade Market Prices for General Election: McCain vs. Obama

Intrade Real Time Quotes
Obama 87.7
McCain 12.2

Electoral Votes
Obama 375 McCain 157 Ties 6

Senate
Dem 59 GOP 41
**Note this prediction came out prior to Stevens conviction- and they are now talking Stevens seat giving the Dems 60 seats (counting Lieberman)

House
Dem 252 GOP 182 Ties 1
 
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