Beef supply/ demand and other questions.

[Gomez]

It seems everywhere I look I see information about the size of the N.A. cow "numbers" and its low level and continued decline. Its great to see the impact of these news headlines on prices, but I wonder if this is the whole story.

Is cow numbers the best predictor of pounds of beef supply? Haven't our cows and calves got bigger overtime and aren't we finishing them faster? Does size matter?..... (out of the gutter) that is, of the calves and is this even a factor that would materially effect supply?

As well, what has happened to the consumer demand for beef? Up or down or sideways? The "protien" diets like Atkins had an impact on demand is that still a driver of demand? Let alone the impact the economy has has on the cuts.

Just questions. Any thoughts?

 

[nortexsook]

Good questions. I believe we are on the verge of a tipping point where lowered supplies kicks us to a higher plateau. Perhaps where $1.50 calves are what the old $1 calves were.

I don't like this rocket ride we are on. I would rather see a slow steady increase in prices.

Regardless, population keeps growing. Urban sprawl reduces pasture land, high crop prices reduce pasture land, all point to a solid underpinning of prices going forward.

I am pretty bullish about the future of the cattle business.

The big thing lately that I do not like is the stealthy passing of S. 501. This is just Big Agribiz (think Monsanto) getting it's nose under the tent in the name of "food safety".