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Ranchers.net

There has been much made of the so-called “untested theories” of Bob Taylor. These theories were what Taylor called the “causation mechanisms” of price manipulation.

There were six of them. They were:
1. Asymmetric information
2. Preferential deals for the “chosen ones” increases total supply thereby decreasing cash price
3. Base Price in marketing agreements is typically tied to a cash market price or an in-plant price
4. Packer control over timing of cash purchases combined with packer imposed narrow trading window
5. Exclusive arrangements preempt other buyers from accessing those cattle
6. Simple Logic: Slaughter decision by the captive feeder is made before price is discovered

When asked if he had tested each of these items Taylor truthfully said “no.” In point of fact, something the jury understood, none of these points has to be proven in order to show that Tyson manipulated the price. The proof for manipulation was in the economic numerical analysis.



Try this illustration. I want to prove that a car moved (or was moved) from point A to point B. I have 6 theories as to the causation mechanisms.

1. Somebody drove it
2. Somebody pushed it
3. It rolled downhill
4. It was taken apart and reassembled
5. Somebody carried it.
6. A space alien transported it

Have I tested any of these theories? No. Why not? It would only be an exercise in intellectual curiosity, because I have pictures of the car at point A at time A, and at point B at time B. The pictures include the serial number of the car. The actual causation mechanism could have been one, all, or none of the ones I have thought of. Maybe some squirrels carried it.

And because I don’t know positively how the car was moved, I’m nuts when I say it was moved.

The jury understood. Judge Strom did not.

If you were a member of the jury, would you?
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