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Border to Stay Closed At Least Another 18 months?

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Anonymous

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I heard a market report on the radio mention that the up futures market and high feeder prices were because of USDA officials speculation that the Canadian border could be closed for another 18 months or longer-- Has anyone seen anything on this?..

Market is definitely up- Feeders are $21.50 higher than this date last year- cull cows are $16 higher.......
 

Murgen

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Hope you're right OT, that's just enough time to get everything rolling up North! Canada should be up about 35% in packing capacity by then! :D
 

Manitoba_Rancher

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OT,

Heard you R-calfers are just wannabe ranchers!!!!!!!! I hope all the packers in the US close there doors and move North! WE ve got open arms for them! Then we'll call the shots! :lol:
 

rancher

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Manitoba_Rancher said:
OT,

Heard you R-calfers are just wannabe ranchers!!!!!!!! I hope all the packers in the US close there doors and move North! WE ve got open arms for them! Then we'll call the shots! :lol:


Where most of the cattle are is where most of the packers will be, in my opinion.
 

Murgen

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I thought you guys only thought the packers were out for profit, if it's cheaper to process here, they'll be here and mark it up when it is exported to the US.
 

rancher

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It is cheaper to buy cattle up there. Price of gas going both ways will set how much goes both ways. Price of feed, and amount of feed must be in the process too as to how many cattle go in the feedlot. So just saying they will have all the packers in Canada won't happen unless all others factor in and make in cheaper to do business this way. It makes more sense to me to have packers where the cattle are. I think you will get enough packers to process what you produce, but doubt if much USA beef goes that way unless it is closer to the border. Just my opinion.
 

Manitoba_Rancher

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The packers will be where they can make the most money and that could just be Canada. You R-calf members are really shooting yourself in the foot!
 

Murgen

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So just saying they will have all the packers in Canada

Nobody said all packers will be in Canada!

The sensible forward looking business might just be though.

Let's look at 4 items that are posted regularly on Ranchers:

1) BSE safeguards
2) Captive supplies
3) vCOOL or mCOOL
4) input costs


1) Logically we all know that the safeguards in place in both countries are the same, at present.

So these costs to the packer will be the same no matter what country they operate in. Consumer confidence will only be hurt in the US if R-calf continues on their tangent of health issues! Contrary to their mandate of trade issues.

2) If R-calf and their followers get their way, Captive supplies will be illegal in the US(right Sandhusker). It's not in Canada, so where will the large packers have the most influence on the market? Where will they be able to take the most advantage of market manipulation as some would call it? And where will there be more competition for cattle come from? An increase in packer capacity!

3)COOL, it's not going to effect food service or Restaurants. And at 7% of the US market, where are the packers going to market their product to reduce costs of labelling etc? Isn't this where the value added also comes in? Further processing? Canada can easily supply the food service industry and export those cuts that sell well in other countries.

4) Input costs are lower in Canada because we don't have the demand on these resources from other domestic industries. We export more than we use. If Canada was to process raw resources for domestic consumption and export the surplus raw resouces we would be laughing. Are we doing this at present, no, we export raw, and import finished, but trade disputes have a way of motivating the voting public to demand this kind of action.

So, I would welcome and analysis of these four points, but I would also say:

BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR
 
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Anonymous

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I was just reading and Purcell says that the $107 price on Aug feeders is a record high.....

--------------------------------------

Feeder Cattle Futures Pit-Traded prices as of 03/29/05 04:00 pm (cst)

MTH/ --- SESSION --- PT EST ---- PRIOR DAY ----
STRIKE OPEN HIGH LOW LAST SETT CHGE VOL SETT VOL INT

APR05 106.850 107.000 106.450 106.850 106.900 +750 1194 106.150 1443 4545
MAY05 105.400 105.800 105.250 105.500 105.500 +575 1611 104.925 2246 13251
AUG05 107.100 107.550 107.050 107.350 107.375 +525 916 106.850 1037 5721
SEP05 105.900 106.300 105.700A 106.000B106.000 +375 70 105.625 130 981
OCT05 105.000 105.600 105.000 105.250 105.225 +250 36 104.975 113 913
NOV05 104.000 104.250 103.800 104.250 104.250 +300 22 103.950 35 361
JAN06 100.500 100.500 100.500 100.500 100.500 -100 1 100.600 42 59
TOTAL EST. VOL VOL OPEN INT.
TOTAL 3850 5046 25831
 

Mike

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I stopped by the salebarn here for a few minutes today and it was awesome! Saw a 250 lb calf bring $2.25/lb. Several 600 to 700 lb calves brought $1.25 to $1.40/lb. Bulls for kill brought as high as .85 cents.
Cows for kill were bringing .65 to .75 cents/lb
 

Manitoba_Rancher

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For a 250 lb calf here we would be lucky to get .50 per pound. I ve seen it for my own eyes. Bulls are around .30 and real good kill cows are around .25 talked to a buyer in Nebraska today and he said he is quite sure the USDA will prevail with a court order to open the border. Hes not expecting prices in the US to change much. Figures most live cattle heading to the US will just be slaughter steers/hiefers. Hope he's right.
 
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Anonymous

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Mike said:
I stopped by the salebarn here for a few minutes today and it was awesome! Saw a 250 lb calf bring $2.25/lb. Several 600 to 700 lb calves brought $1.25 to $1.40/lb. Bulls for kill brought as high as .85 cents.
Cows for kill were bringing .65 to .75 cents/lb

Mike- newborn baby calves have been bringing as much as $350-$400...
 

Manitoba_Rancher

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OT,

I think you boys are setting yourselves up for the "perfect storm". Only a god damn fool would pay $400 for a newborn calf. If your group R-sult keeps it up and you have a few more cases of BSE then beef demand in your own country will fall and yours prices will crash. If they don't well when the border opens I may be smiling :)
 
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Manitoba_Rancher said:
OT,

I think you boys are setting yourselves up for the "perfect storm". Only a god damn fool would pay $400 for a newborn calf. If your group R-sult keeps it up and you have a few more cases of BSE then beef demand in your own country will fall and yours prices will crash. If they don't well when the border opens I may be smiling :)

I was questioning some peoples sanity this same time last year when they were paying almost that much for babies then--But after they grafted the calf -- they sold that calf in the fall for $700-800 and were able to keep a breeder in the herd that would have cost them $1200-1300 to replace- I can see their thinking......
 

Denny

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Manitoba_Rancher said:
OT,

I think you boys are setting yourselves up for the "perfect storm". Only a god damn fool would pay $400 for a newborn calf. If your group R-sult keeps it up and you have a few more cases of BSE then beef demand in your own country will fall and yours prices will crash. If they don't well when the border opens I may be smiling :)

I seen a newborn hereford dairy cross calf sell last week for $313.00 short term bred cows sold for $1210 to $1250 a head and they weighed 1060#s they were 2 weeks from calving
 

cdncowboy

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Well boys don't be foolish, sounds like your market is exactly where ours was 2 years ago this time. Enjoy the prices, put some aside for a rainy day, cause if you think the BSE storm will just go around you your wrong. Ask any Canadian beef producer.
 

Silver

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rancher said:
Manitoba_Rancher said:
OT,

Heard you R-calfers are just wannabe ranchers!!!!!!!! I hope all the packers in the US close there doors and move North! WE ve got open arms for them! Then we'll call the shots! :lol:


Where most of the cattle are is where most of the packers will be, in my opinion.

We only need enough packing capacity for our own production. We have always been able to produce a superior product at a better price than the Americans. The best thing that could happen to us is to be in direct competition, as opposed to this silly 'one North American Industry' idea.
 

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