What is the Bradley Effect?
By Matthew J. McKnight | TheRoot.com
With two weeks left until Election Day, many people are having trouble believing the polls that say Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) is leading and may be running away with the election. Many of these doubts—a borderline conspiratorial uneasiness—have to do with race, and whether white voters who have no intention of voting for a black man tell pollsters that they will. The instant comparison is to the 1982 gubernatorial race in California, which produced a phenomenon now known as the Bradley effect. In that election, the former mayor of Los Angeles, Democrat Tom Bradley, an African American, ran against Republican and white George Deukmejian.
Surveys leading up to the election and exit polls in this '82 election showed that Bradley was well on his way to winning the race. A poll conducted by pollster Mervin Field several weeks out showed Bradley with a 14-point edge. By Election Day that margin was down to six, but as U.S. News and World Report declared: "Tom Bradley of Los Angeles has seen his lead over GOP Atty. Gen. George Deukmejian shrink, but analysts still expect Bradley to become the first elected black governor in U.S. history."
But Bradley lost narrowly, igniting a generation of speculation about whether white voters were lying to pollsters...............................
http://www.theroot.com/id/48509?GT1=38002
By Matthew J. McKnight | TheRoot.com
With two weeks left until Election Day, many people are having trouble believing the polls that say Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) is leading and may be running away with the election. Many of these doubts—a borderline conspiratorial uneasiness—have to do with race, and whether white voters who have no intention of voting for a black man tell pollsters that they will. The instant comparison is to the 1982 gubernatorial race in California, which produced a phenomenon now known as the Bradley effect. In that election, the former mayor of Los Angeles, Democrat Tom Bradley, an African American, ran against Republican and white George Deukmejian.
Surveys leading up to the election and exit polls in this '82 election showed that Bradley was well on his way to winning the race. A poll conducted by pollster Mervin Field several weeks out showed Bradley with a 14-point edge. By Election Day that margin was down to six, but as U.S. News and World Report declared: "Tom Bradley of Los Angeles has seen his lead over GOP Atty. Gen. George Deukmejian shrink, but analysts still expect Bradley to become the first elected black governor in U.S. history."
But Bradley lost narrowly, igniting a generation of speculation about whether white voters were lying to pollsters...............................
http://www.theroot.com/id/48509?GT1=38002