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Lonecowboy

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steve, soapweed, anyone ?

Concerns about subversion grow after Republican strategist says GOP establishment will not allow Ron Paul to win

Paul Joseph Watson
Infowars.com
Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Tonight’s final vote tally for the Iowa caucuses will take place at a secret undisclosed location, an announcement that has stoked fears of vote fraud amongst Ron Paul supporters, concerns that were heightened following a Republican insider’s claim that the GOP establishment will not allow Paul to win.




The final Iowa vote count normally takes place at state party headquarters in Des Moines, but following dubious “security concerns” about Occupy protesters disrupting the tabulation process, the Republican Party of Iowa announced that it would be moving the final vote count to a secret undisclosed location.

The move occurred despite Occupy protest leaders confirming there were no plans to disrupt the caucuses themselves.

“Votes in each of the 1,774 precincts will still be counted on location, and observers from the campaigns will be able to watch that process. That precinct information will then be conveyed to the state party’s tabulation center,” reports CNN.

WatchtheVote2012.com warns that not only Paul, but also Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum are “in grave danger of being cheated on Iowa caucus night 2012 by the Iowa State GOP and the 5 big TV networks.”

“The Iowa STATE Republican Party has a long history of rigging both the Iowa Straw Poll and the Iowa Caucus against populist, constitutionalist candidates like Ron Paul,” states the website, which is asking for observers to visit the voting precincts to help ensure a fair tabulation process.






“The RHINO GOP establishment also hates Presidential candidates like Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum, even though these two are acceptable to the RHINOS in foreign policy matters. But, since Bachmann and Santorum ACTUALLY believe in their domestic and social issue agendas for the USA, they are also in danger of being cheated out of votes received at the state level. This is not an accusation against the Gingrich or Romney or Perry campaigns — but against the Iowa STATE GOP, and whichever groups they are in alliance with to “count” the votes at the state level.”

As the Brad Blog documents, the potential for the Iowa primary result to be manipulated by using saboteurs to flood vote for one candidate is considerable.

“No Photo ID is necessary for any voter in the Republican Iowa caucuses. No Photo ID is necessary to register as a Republican at the caucus site, even if you’re not already a registered voter. You may then cast your vote at the caucus on the same day you’ve registered (without a Photo ID).”



Concerns about vote fraud, subversion and undue influence on behalf of the Republican establishment that could serve to steal the Iowa caucuses from Ron Paul have gone viral today in the aftermath of Republican strategist Dee Dee Benkie telling a radio show last night that GOP insiders have resolved to prevent Ron Paul from winning tonight’s primary.

“They’re not going to want him to get number one, it’s very bad for Iowa, it’s terrible,” said Benkie, confirming the host’s claim that Iowa District Chairmen are organizing voting blocks to sabotage Paul’s chances by offering them sweetheart deals in return for voting against Paul.
http://www.infowars.com/tonights-iowa-vote-count-to-take-place-at-secret-location/
 

okfarmer

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Only defense necessary. Either: Alex Jones or Infowars.com. Your choice.

I could use the words of the article itself: "WatchtheVote2012.com warns that not only Paul, but also Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum are “in grave danger of being cheated on Iowa caucus night 2012 by the Iowa State GOP and the 5 big TV networks.”

Who won Iowa? One of the individuals in grave danger of being cheated.... yet Paul was the only one cheated???

That kind of paranoid thinking is not healthy for you. I always keep one eye open as well, but when it takes over your entire outlook, it is just not healthy.
 

Steve

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steve, soapweed, anyone ?

if you look at the numbers... even if it was split fairly.. as it should be in my opinion... Paul earned no more then 7 even if the others dropped out... if he was able to claim all the others voters... at most he would be able to claim was 7 by the current Iowa State party rules.. he now has 20 Paul supporters as Iowa delegates..

not delegates bound to or earned by Paul,.. but Paul supporters who took (or stole) delegate positions.. and are ignoring state rules and intent... and Iowa is not the only state his supporters are trying to steal..

Iowa numbers

Delegates
Santorum ... 7
Romney ... 6
Gingrich ... 0
Paul ... 1

Popular
Santorum ... 29805
Romney ... 29839
Paul ... 26036
Gingrich ... 16163

WASHINGTON -- A prominent Iowa Republican, and a major supporter of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, did not hesitate to answer when asked recently how many of the Hawkeye State's 28 delegates he expects Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) to have heading into the national convention in Tampa this August.

"Twenty," he said.

Conversations with numerous Iowa Republicans confirms the same thing: The state party establishment is dreading a Paul rout on June 15 and 16 at the two-day congressional district/state convention in Des Moines.

"Paul is costing the state a lot of credibility,"

Another Republican operative who works for a statewide official sounded an even more despondent note.

"It does not sound encouraging. The Paul people are in a position to control the delegates, and the result would be chaotic for the Republican Party of Iowa and bring it to a screeching halt, rendering it completely irrelevant

the prospect of a third candidate winning the state is causing ulcer-level heartburn, especially since Paul came in third in the popular vote. But that isn't stopping Paul's supporters -- known among other things as Paulites, Paulinistas and to their most critical detractors, Paulbots -- from moving forward with their plan to try to win more delegates in Iowa and other states than was reflected in the popular vote.

Paul is estimated to have won only one delegate thus far in Iowa by most estimates. But the caucus system is essentially a series of rounds of voting, or "delegates electing delegates electing delegates," as a top Paul campaign official put it (click here for a full run down of how the Iowa process works). And Paul supporters are the most engaged with this process.

the RNC appears to fear Paul supporters "taking Mitt Romney slots and then not abiding by GOP rules to vote for the presumptive nominee on the first ballot in Tampa."

Romney's home state of Massachusetts is a special case. Because Romney won the popular vote in the state's March 6 primary, all 38 delegates are bound by party rules to support him on the first ballot at the national convention. But in the congressional district conventions this past weekend, Paul supporters captured 16 delegate spots out of 27 that were elected

two wrongs still doesn't make a right...

never has never will....




while I despise using the post as a reference,.. they have about the most complete article on what Paul and his supporters are pulling..

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/03/ron-paul-delegates_n_1473035.html
 

Lonecowboy

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you are right Steve- two wrongs never make it right- and the media has things so twisted that we probably can not find the truth of this matter and find who made the first wrong. but I think we can probably all agree the Ron Paul did not get a fair shot from either the media or the republican party "eliets"

My whole point of all of these posts was to point out the "inaccuracy" of those saying it was all over and romney was the winner and we should all support him. (Thank You that has stopped for now)
At this point I don't see how anybody can be assured who will win untill the delegate votes are counted. :shock: and even then only if the delegate votes are counted openly and fairly and the true vote recorded.
I'm too lazy to look back for it right now, but as I recall I read Ronald Reagan was an underdog heading into the National Convention but after several rounds of voting emerged the winner. It could happen! :D
 

katrina

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1976 REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES
Needed to nominate:1,130 delegates
The primaries of the 1970s and 1980s were significantly more "back-loaded" than in recent years, making it
difficult for candidates to get enough traction to mathematically eliminate their opponents, regardless of other
circumstances. Case in point: the 1976 GOP contest between Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan -- the first twocandidate
race of the modern era. Despite a string of six consecutive (and surprising) victories for Ford early
on, there were far too many unallocated delegates to write off Reagan's chances. And when Reagan responded
with several victories of his own, starting in North Carolina, he could not knock Ford out of the race despite
taking a brief lead in delegates in May. The final primary showdowns in June -- in which Ford matched a
Reagan victory in California with strong showings in Ohio and New Jersey, finally gave the party a presumptive
nominee. Although the Reagan forces scrapped for every delegate in the post-primary season, Ford dealt from a
position of strength due to his delegate lead and his strong finish in the final primaries. True, the 1976 GOP
conclave was the last convention (to date) where floor votes mattered, but all political observers agree that Ford
had essentially locked up the nomination well before the convention was gaveled to order, reducing the Reagan
camp's options to a series of Hail-Mary passes (such as his pre-emptive naming of a running mate, Pennsylvania
Senator Richard Schweiker).
MOST RECENT PRIMARIES DELEGATE COUNT
DELEGATE
STRENGTH
Feb. 26
IA: Ford 45%, Reagan 43%
N.H. Ford 49%, Reagan 48%
Ford 17
Reagan 4 2,198 REMAINING
Uncomm 39
FORD: 0.03
March 4
MA: Ford 61%, Reagan 34%
VT: Ford 84%
Ford 53
Reagan 18 2,149 REMAINING
Uncomm 38
FORD: 0.3
March 11 FL: Ford 53%, Reagan 47%
Ford 96
Reagan 41 2,083 REMAINING
Uncomm 38
FORD: 0.8
March 25
IL: Ford 59%, Reagan 40%
NC: Reagan 52%, Ford 46%
Ford 206
Reagan 81 1,919 REMAINING
Uncomm 52
FORD: 4.0
April 26 WI: Ford 55%, Reagan 44%
Ford 290
Reagan 135 1,641 REMAINING
Uncomm 192
FORD: 8.1
May 13
GA: Reagan 68%, Ford 32%
IN: Reagan 51%, Ford 49%
NE: Reagan 55%, Ford 45%
WV: Ford 57%, Reagan 43%
Reagan 417
Ford 323 1,137 REMAINING
Uncomm 381
REAGAN: 7.9
May 23
MD: Ford 58%, Reagan 42%
MI: Ford 65%, Reagan 34%
Ford 561
Reagan 540 877 REMAINING
Uncomm 280
FORD: 4.0
May 27
AR: Reagan 63%, Ford 35%
ID: Reagan 74%, Ford 23%
KY: Ford 51%, Reagan 47%
NV: Reagan 66%, Ford 29%
OR: Ford 50%, Reagan 46%
TN: Ford 50%, Reagan 49%
Ford 777
Reagan 644 696 REMAINING
Uncomm 141
FORD: 43.8
June 3
MT: Reagan 63%, Ford 35%
RI: Ford 65%, Reagan 31%
SD: Reagan 51%, Ford 44%
Ford 799
Reagan 653 654 REMAINING
Uncomm 152
FORD: 52.6
June 10
CA: Reagan 66%, Ford 35%
OH: Ford 55%, Reagan 45%
Ford 965
Reagan 862 282 REMAINING
Uncomm 149
FORD: 104.0
1980 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
Needed to nominate:1,657 delegates
Another two-candidate race, another contentious convention -- but this one did not go down to the wire. By
early May, the delegate count just didn't add up in Ted Kennedy's favor. March and April saw Carter and
Kennedy trade victories, but a string of Carter victories in early May convinced all but the Kennedy faithful that
the incumbent would again be the Democratic nominee. The math backed that conclusion: Carter's three-state
sweep on May 7 left Kennedy the impossible task of capturing more than three-quarters of the remaining
delegates. Much like the Reagan forces in 1976, Kennedy's campaign was left with little except procedural
challenges to pin their hopes on when the convention rolled around.
MOST RECENT PRIMARIES DELEGATE COUNT
DELEGATE
STRENGTH
March 8
IA: Carter 59%, Kennedy 31%
NH: Carter 47%, Kennedy 37%
MA: Kennedy 65%, Carter 29%
VT: Carter 73%, Kennedy 26%
Kennedy 113
Carter 89 3,110 REMAINING
KENNEDY: 0.1
March 12
AL: Carter 82%, Kennedy 13%
FL: Carter 61%, Kennedy 23%
GA: Carter 88%
Carter 283
Kennedy 145 2,883 REMAINING
Uncomm 1
CARTER: 2.7
March 19 IL: Carter 65%, Kennedy 30%
Carter 478.3
Kennedy 182.1 2,649 REMAINING
Uncomm 2.6
CARTER: 10.8
March 28
CT: Kennedy 47%, Carter 42%
NY: Kennedy 59%, Carter 41%
Carter 746
Kennedy 385 2,151 REMAINING
Uncomm 29.6
CARTER: 25.2
April 2
KS: Carter 57%, Kennedy 32%
WI: Carter 56%, Kennedy 30%
Carter 852
Kennedy 427 2,003 REMAINING
Uncomm 29.6
CARTER: 36.4
April 22 PA: Kennedy 46%, Carter 45%
Carter 947.3
Kennedy 475.1 1,860 REMAINING
Uncomm 29.6
CARTER: 48.4
May 5 TX: Carter 56%, Kennedy 23%
Carter 1,147
Kennedy 657 1,478 REMAINING
Uncomm 29.6
CARTER: 76.5
May 7
IN: Carter 68%, Kennedy 32%
NC: Carter 70%, Kennedy 18%
TN: Carter 75%, Kennedy 18%
Carter 1,306
Kennedy 721 1,255 REMAINING
Uncomm 29.6
CARTER: 122.4
May 14
MD: Carter 48%, Kennedy 38%
NE: Carter 47%, Kennedy 38%
Carter: 1,365
Kennedy 770 1,147 REMAINING
Uncomm 29.6
CARTER: 142.3
May 21 OR: Carter 57%, Kennedy 31%
Carter: 1,391
Kennedy 782 1,083 REMAINING
Uncomm 56.2`
CARTER: 157.3
June 3
AR: Carter 60%, Kennedy 18%
ID: Carter 62%, Kennedy 22%
KY: Carter 67%, Kennedy 23%
NV: Carter 38%, Kennedy 29%
Carter: 1,583.6
Kennedy 844.8 800 REMAINING
Uncomm: 83.6
CARTER: 294.1
June 5
CA: Kennedy 45%, Carter 38%
MT: Carter 52%, Kennedy 37%
NJ: Kennedy 56%, Carter 38%
NM: Kennedy 46%, Carter 42%
OH: Carter 51%, Kennedy 44%
RI: Kennedy 68%, Carter 26%
SD: Kennedy 49%, Carter 45%
WV: Carter 62%, Kennedy 38%
Carter 1,948.6
Kennedy 1,221.8 47 REMAINING
Uncomm 94.6
CARTER: 6,059
1980 REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES
Needed to nominate: 996 delegates
As in previous primary seasons, the frontrunner in the 1980 Republican contests built up a nice cushion of
delegates over his challenger by April, but it was not until May that the math made his victory inevitable. In
April, Ronald Reagan had more than four times as many delegates as George H. Bush and seemed all but
assured of the nomination. But Bush refused to throw in the towel because Reagan at that point still needed
roughly half of the remaining delegates to win the nomination, and had not cracked the 50% mark in a
competitive primary in more than a month. After three convincing victories on May 8, however, there was no
question in anyone's mind who the GOP nominee would be.
MOST RECENT PRIMARIES DELEGATE COUNT
DELEGATE
STRENGTH
Feb. 27
IA: Bush 32%, Reagan 30%
NH: Reagan 50%, Bush 23%
Reagan 21
Bush 20
Others 9 1,935 REMAINING
Uncomm 5
REAGAN: 0.0
March 8
MA: Bush 31%, Reagan 30%
VT: Reagan 30%, Anderson 29%
Reagan 62
Bush 36
Others 23 1,862 REMAINING
Uncomm 7
REAGAN: 0.3
March 12
SC: Reagan 55%, Connally 30%
AL: Reagan 70%, Bush 26%
FL: Reagan 56%, Bush 30%
GA: Reagan 73%, Bush 13%
Reagan 167
Bush 45
Others 23 1,748 REMAINING
Uncomm 7
REAGAN: 3.9
March 19 IL: Reagan 48%, Anderson 37%
Reagan 206
Bush 47
Others 43 1,660 REMAINING
Uncomm 34
REAGAN: 6.6
March 28 CT: Bush 39%, Reagan 34%
Reagan 295
Bush 68
Others 49 1,508 REMAINING
Uncomm 70
REAGAN: 14.9
April 2
KS: Reagan 63%, Anderson 18%
WI: Reagan 40%, Bush 30%
Reagan 343
Bush 72
Others 60 1,445 REMAINING
Uncomm 70
REAGAN: 21.5
April 22 PA: Bush 51%, Reagan 43%
Reagan 411
Bush 96
Others 57 1,344 REMAINING
Uncomm 82
REAGAN: 32.2
May 6 TX: Reagan 51%, Bush 47%
Reagan 636
Bush 138
Others 57 1,077 REMAINING
Uncomm 82
REAGAN: 98.4
May 8
IN: Reagan 74%, Bush 16%
NC: Reagan 67%, Bush 22%
TN: Reagan 74%, Bush 18%
Reagan 744
Bush 170
Others 57 937 REMAINING
Uncomm 82
REAGAN: 152.5
May 14
MD: Reagan 48%, Bush 41%
NE: Reagan 76%, Bush 15%
Reagan 821
Bush 186
Others 57 844 REMAINING
Uncomm 82
REAGAN: 206.7
May 21
MI: Bush 58%, Reagan 32%
OR: Reagan 54%, Bush 35%
Reagan 888
Bush 256
Others 56 678 REMAINING
REAGAN: 277.0
June 3
ID: Reagan 83%
KY: Reagan 82%
NV: Reagan 83%
Reagan 1,068
Bush 199
Others 23 554 REMAINING
REAGAN: 560.7
1984 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
Needed to nominate: 1,962 delegates
Walter Mondale stumbled early and often in 1984 but Gary Hart could never land a knock-out punch. Lateseason
victories by Jesse Jackson helped keep Hart's delegate totals low, and by mid-May the Colorado Senator
needed to win 130% of the remaining delegates (an impossibility, of course) in order to get the nomination.
Mondale, meanwhile, kept steadily adding to his delegate score and by May most observers bowed to the
inevitability of the math and -- unlike March or April -- began to treat Mondale as the presumptive nominee.
MOST RECENT PRIMARIES DELEGATE COUNT
DELEGATE
STRENGTH
Feb. 28
IA: Mondale 45%, Hart 15%
Mondale 18
Hart 7
Jackson 7 3,809 REMAINING
Others 35
Uncomm 47
MONDALE: 0.01
March 11
NH: Hart 37%, Mondale 28%
VT: Hart 70%, Mondale 20%
Hart 211
Mondale 126
Jackson 10 3,492 REMAINING
Others 17
Uncomm 67
HART: 0.5
March 15
AL: Mondale 35%, Glenn 21%
FL: Hart 39%, Mondale 33%
GA: Mondale 31%, Hart 27%
MA: Hart 39%, Mondale 26%
RI: Hart 45%, Mondale 35%
Mondale 312
Hart 207
Jackson 37 3,214 REMAINING
Others 51
Uncomm 102
MONDALE: 1.7
March 22 IL: Mondale 40%, Hart 35%
Mondale 640
Hart 358
Jackson 72 2,547 REMAINING
Others 35
Uncomm 271
MONDALE: 12.0
April 7
NY: Mondale 45%, Hart 27%
WI: Hart 44%, Mondale 41%
Mondale 900
Hart 520
Jackson 147 1,966 REMAINING
Others 35
Uncomm 355
MONDALE: 29.5
April 12 PA: Mondale 45%, Hart 33%
Mondale 1,047
Hart 571
Jackson 152 1,764 REMAINING
Others 58
Uncomm 331
MONDALE: 48.0
May 15
DC Jackson 67%, Mondale 26%
TN: Mondale 41%, Hart 29%
LA: Jackson 43%, Hart 25%
IN Hart 42%, Mondale 41%
MD: Mondale 43%, Jackson 26%
NC Mondale 36%, Hart 30%
OH: Hart 42%, Mondale 40%
Mondale 1,532
Hart 886
Jackson 305 812 REMAINING
Others 58
Uncomm 330
MONDALE: 206.9
May 17
ID: Hart 58%, Mondale 30%
NE: Hart 58%, Mondale 27%
OR: Hart 59%, Mondale 28%
Mondale 1,564
Hart 941
Jackson 291 715 REMAINING
Others 58
Uncomm 354
MONDALE: 231.4
June 7
CA: Hart 39%, Mondale 35%
NJ: Mondale 45%, Hart 30%
NM: Hart 51%, Mondale 39%
SD: Hart 51%, Mondale 39%
WV: Mondale 54%, Hart 37%
Mondale 1,969
Hart 1,212
Jackson 367 98 REMAINING
Others 58
Uncomm 219
MONDALE: 2,582
1988 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
Needed to nominate: 2,082 delegates
This was the first year that a real "Super Tuesday" was held (although the term had been used in previous
years), but the result was a muddle rather than the quick coronation of a Democratic nominee. Michael
Dukakis' successful strategy was to outlast his opponents as the pool of remaining delegates dwindled.
Throughout March, it looked like Al Gore or Jesse Jackson could overtaken Dukakis' consistent (if sometimes
tiny) delegate lead. But Jackson lost steam after the primaries moved away from states with large black
populations, and a third-place finish in New York in late April buried Gore's chances. It took Dukakis a few
more victories to convince skeptics that he really was the winner, but resounding victories in Pennsylvania and
three states on May 5 put that skepticism to bed.
MOST RECENT PRIMARIES DELEGATE COUNT
DELEGATE
STRENGTH
March 3
IA: Gephardt 27%, Simon 24%
NH: Dukakis 36%, Gephardt 20%
SD: Gephardt 43%, Dukakis 31%
VT: Dukakis 56%, Jackson 26%
Dukakis 63.5
Gephardt 47 3,713 REMAINING
Simon 35.5
Jackson 27.6
DUKAKIS: 0.1
March 10
AL: Jackson 44%, Gore 37%
AR: Gore 37%, Dukakis 19%
FL: Dukakis 41%, Jackson 20%
GA: Jackson 40%, Gore 33%
KY: Gore 46%, Dukakis 19%
LA: Jackson 36%, Gore 28%
MA: Dukakis 59%, Jackson 19%
MD: Dukakis 46%, Jackson 29%
MO: Gephardt 58%, Jackson 21%
MS: Jackson 45%, Gore 34%
NC: Gore 35%, Jackson 33%
OK: Gore 41%, Gephardt 21%
RI: Dukakis 69%, Jackson 15%
TN: Gore 72%, Jackson 21%
TX: Dukakis 33%, Jackson 25%
VA: Jackson 45%, Gore 22%
Dukakis 466
Jackson 389 2,513 REMAINING
Gore 344
Gephardt 159
DUKAKIS:2.3
March 30
IL: Simon 42%, Jackson 32%
CT: Dukakis 58%, Jackson 28%
Dukakis 607
Jackson 598 1,955 REMAINING
Gore 369
DUKAKIS: 0.5
April 20
WI: Dukakis 48%, Jackson 28%
NY: Dukakis 51%, Jackson 37%
Dukakis 900
Jackson 769 1,261 REMAINING
Gore 419
DUKAKIS: 15.0
April 27 PA: Dukakis 67%, Jackson 27%
Dukakis 1,129
Jackson 780 1,059 REMAINING
Gore 410
DUKAKIS: 59.5
May 5
DC: Jackson 80%, Dukakis 18%
IN: Dukakis 70%, Jackson 23%
OH: Dukakis 63%, Jackson 27%
Dukakis 1,320
Jackson 854 821 REMAINING
Gore 408
DUKAKIS: 120.0
May 18
NE: Dukakis 63%, Jackson 26%
WV: Dukakis 75%, Jackson 14%
OR: Dukakis 57%, Jackson 38%
Dukakis 1,585
Jackson 924 590 REMAINING
Gore 400
DUKAKIS: 284.2
June 8
ID: Dukakis 73%, Jackson 16%
CA: Dukakis 61%, Jackson 35%
MT: Dukakis 69%, Jackson 22%
NJ: Dukakis 63%, Jackson 33%
NM: Dukakis 61%, Jackson 28%
Dukakis 2,167
Jackson 1,054 37 REMAINING
Gore 399
DUKAKIS: 10,424
1988 REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES
Needed to nominate: 1,139 delegates
On the Republican side, Super Tuesday worked as planned, with George Bush the elder running the table on
March 8 and piling up a more than four-to-one advantage over Bob Dole in the delegate count. For the GOP in
1988, the delegate math was not driven by the number of delegates remaining but instead the huge lead that
Bush had piled up, allowing him to clinch the nomination earlier than any previous candidate in the modern
primary era. Even after Super Tuesday, some observers were not convinced (Dole, for example, did not drop
out until March 29), but a solid Bush win in Illinois left no doubt. After Dole withdrew, news organizations
simply stopped counting delegates.
MOST RECENT PRIMARIES DELEGATE COUNT
DELEGATE
STRENGTH
March 3
IA: Dole 37%, Robertson 25%
NH: Bush 38%, Dole 28%
SD: Dole 55%, Robertson 20%
VT: Bush 49%, Dole 39%
Bush 85
Dole 61 2,077 REMAINING
Kemp 35
Robertson 8
BUSH: 0.3
March 10
SC: Bush 49%, Dole 21%
AL: Bush 65%, Dole 16%
AR: Bush 47%, Dole 26%
FL: Bush 62%, Dole 21%
GA: Bush 54%, Dole 24%
KY: Bush 59%, Dole 23%
LA: Bush 59%, Robertson 18%
MA: Bush 59%, Dole 26%
MD: Bush 53%, Dole 33%
MO: Bush 42%, Dole 41%
MS: Bush 66%, Dole 17%
NC: Bush 45%, Dole 39%
OK: Bush 37%, Dole 35%
RI: Bush 65%, Dole 23%
TN: Bush 60%, Dole 22%
TX: Bush 64%, Robertson 15%
VA: Bush 54%, Dole 26%
Bush 700
Dole 164 1,304 REMAINING
Robertson 37
BUSH: 84.2
March 16 IL: Bush 55%, Dole 36%
Bush 769
Dole 177 1,222 REMAINING
Robertson 37
BUSH: 109.0
March 30 CT: Bush 71%, Dole 20%
Bush 837
Dole 177 996 REMAINING
Robertson 37
BUSH: 162.2
 

katrina

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Joined
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Messages
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Location
East north east of Soapweed
1976 REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES
Needed to nominate:1,130 delegates
The primaries of the 1970s and 1980s were significantly more "back-loaded" than in recent years, making it
difficult for candidates to get enough traction to mathematically eliminate their opponents, regardless of other
circumstances. Case in point: the 1976 GOP contest between Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan -- the first twocandidate
race of the modern era. Despite a string of six consecutive (and surprising) victories for Ford early
on, there were far too many unallocated delegates to write off Reagan's chances. And when Reagan responded
with several victories of his own, starting in North Carolina, he could not knock Ford out of the race despite
taking a brief lead in delegates in May. The final primary showdowns in June -- in which Ford matched a
Reagan victory in California with strong showings in Ohio and New Jersey, finally gave the party a presumptive
nominee. Although the Reagan forces scrapped for every delegate in the post-primary season, Ford dealt from a
position of strength due to his delegate lead and his strong finish in the final primaries. True, the 1976 GOP
conclave was the last convention (to date) where floor votes mattered, but all political observers agree that Ford
had essentially locked up the nomination well before the convention was gaveled to order, reducing the Reagan
camp's options to a series of Hail-Mary passes (such as his pre-emptive naming of a running mate, Pennsylvania
Senator Richard Schweiker).
MOST RECENT PRIMARIES DELEGATE COUNT
DELEGATE
STRENGTH
Feb. 26
IA: Ford 45%, Reagan 43%
N.H. Ford 49%, Reagan 48%
Ford 17
Reagan 4 2,198 REMAINING
Uncomm 39
FORD: 0.03
March 4
MA: Ford 61%, Reagan 34%
VT: Ford 84%
Ford 53
Reagan 18 2,149 REMAINING
Uncomm 38
FORD: 0.3
March 11 FL: Ford 53%, Reagan 47%
Ford 96
Reagan 41 2,083 REMAINING
Uncomm 38
FORD: 0.8
March 25
IL: Ford 59%, Reagan 40%
NC: Reagan 52%, Ford 46%
Ford 206
Reagan 81 1,919 REMAINING
Uncomm 52
FORD: 4.0
April 26 WI: Ford 55%, Reagan 44%
Ford 290
Reagan 135 1,641 REMAINING
Uncomm 192
FORD: 8.1
May 13
GA: Reagan 68%, Ford 32%
IN: Reagan 51%, Ford 49%
NE: Reagan 55%, Ford 45%
WV: Ford 57%, Reagan 43%
Reagan 417
Ford 323 1,137 REMAINING
Uncomm 381
REAGAN: 7.9
May 23
MD: Ford 58%, Reagan 42%
MI: Ford 65%, Reagan 34%
Ford 561
Reagan 540 877 REMAINING
Uncomm 280
FORD: 4.0
May 27
AR: Reagan 63%, Ford 35%
ID: Reagan 74%, Ford 23%
KY: Ford 51%, Reagan 47%
NV: Reagan 66%, Ford 29%
OR: Ford 50%, Reagan 46%
TN: Ford 50%, Reagan 49%
Ford 777
Reagan 644 696 REMAINING
Uncomm 141
FORD: 43.8
June 3
MT: Reagan 63%, Ford 35%
RI: Ford 65%, Reagan 31%
SD: Reagan 51%, Ford 44%
Ford 799
Reagan 653 654 REMAINING
Uncomm 152
FORD: 52.6
June 10
CA: Reagan 66%, Ford 35%
OH: Ford 55%, Reagan 45%
Ford 965
Reagan 862 282 REMAINING
Uncomm 149
FORD: 104.0
1980 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
Needed to nominate:1,657 delegates
Another two-candidate race, another contentious convention -- but this one did not go down to the wire. By
early May, the delegate count just didn't add up in Ted Kennedy's favor. March and April saw Carter and
Kennedy trade victories, but a string of Carter victories in early May convinced all but the Kennedy faithful that
the incumbent would again be the Democratic nominee. The math backed that conclusion: Carter's three-state
sweep on May 7 left Kennedy the impossible task of capturing more than three-quarters of the remaining
delegates. Much like the Reagan forces in 1976, Kennedy's campaign was left with little except procedural
challenges to pin their hopes on when the convention rolled around.
MOST RECENT PRIMARIES DELEGATE COUNT
DELEGATE
STRENGTH
March 8
IA: Carter 59%, Kennedy 31%
NH: Carter 47%, Kennedy 37%
MA: Kennedy 65%, Carter 29%
VT: Carter 73%, Kennedy 26%
Kennedy 113
Carter 89 3,110 REMAINING
KENNEDY: 0.1
March 12
AL: Carter 82%, Kennedy 13%
FL: Carter 61%, Kennedy 23%
GA: Carter 88%
Carter 283
Kennedy 145 2,883 REMAINING
Uncomm 1
CARTER: 2.7
March 19 IL: Carter 65%, Kennedy 30%
Carter 478.3
Kennedy 182.1 2,649 REMAINING
Uncomm 2.6
CARTER: 10.8
March 28
CT: Kennedy 47%, Carter 42%
NY: Kennedy 59%, Carter 41%
Carter 746
Kennedy 385 2,151 REMAINING
Uncomm 29.6
CARTER: 25.2
April 2
KS: Carter 57%, Kennedy 32%
WI: Carter 56%, Kennedy 30%
Carter 852
Kennedy 427 2,003 REMAINING
Uncomm 29.6
CARTER: 36.4
April 22 PA: Kennedy 46%, Carter 45%
Carter 947.3
Kennedy 475.1 1,860 REMAINING
Uncomm 29.6
CARTER: 48.4
May 5 TX: Carter 56%, Kennedy 23%
Carter 1,147
Kennedy 657 1,478 REMAINING
Uncomm 29.6
CARTER: 76.5
May 7
IN: Carter 68%, Kennedy 32%
NC: Carter 70%, Kennedy 18%
TN: Carter 75%, Kennedy 18%
Carter 1,306
Kennedy 721 1,255 REMAINING
Uncomm 29.6
CARTER: 122.4
May 14
MD: Carter 48%, Kennedy 38%
NE: Carter 47%, Kennedy 38%
Carter: 1,365
Kennedy 770 1,147 REMAINING
Uncomm 29.6
CARTER: 142.3
May 21 OR: Carter 57%, Kennedy 31%
Carter: 1,391
Kennedy 782 1,083 REMAINING
Uncomm 56.2`
CARTER: 157.3
June 3
AR: Carter 60%, Kennedy 18%
ID: Carter 62%, Kennedy 22%
KY: Carter 67%, Kennedy 23%
NV: Carter 38%, Kennedy 29%
Carter: 1,583.6
Kennedy 844.8 800 REMAINING
Uncomm: 83.6
CARTER: 294.1
June 5
CA: Kennedy 45%, Carter 38%
MT: Carter 52%, Kennedy 37%
NJ: Kennedy 56%, Carter 38%
NM: Kennedy 46%, Carter 42%
OH: Carter 51%, Kennedy 44%
RI: Kennedy 68%, Carter 26%
SD: Kennedy 49%, Carter 45%
WV: Carter 62%, Kennedy 38%
Carter 1,948.6
Kennedy 1,221.8 47 REMAINING
Uncomm 94.6
CARTER: 6,059
1980 REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES
Needed to nominate: 996 delegates
As in previous primary seasons, the frontrunner in the 1980 Republican contests built up a nice cushion of
delegates over his challenger by April, but it was not until May that the math made his victory inevitable. In
April, Ronald Reagan had more than four times as many delegates as George H. Bush and seemed all but
assured of the nomination. But Bush refused to throw in the towel because Reagan at that point still needed
roughly half of the remaining delegates to win the nomination, and had not cracked the 50% mark in a
competitive primary in more than a month. After three convincing victories on May 8, however, there was no
question in anyone's mind who the GOP nominee would be.
MOST RECENT PRIMARIES DELEGATE COUNT
DELEGATE
STRENGTH
Feb. 27
IA: Bush 32%, Reagan 30%
NH: Reagan 50%, Bush 23%
Reagan 21
Bush 20
Others 9 1,935 REMAINING
Uncomm 5
REAGAN: 0.0
March 8
MA: Bush 31%, Reagan 30%
VT: Reagan 30%, Anderson 29%
Reagan 62
Bush 36
Others 23 1,862 REMAINING
Uncomm 7
REAGAN: 0.3
March 12
SC: Reagan 55%, Connally 30%
AL: Reagan 70%, Bush 26%
FL: Reagan 56%, Bush 30%
GA: Reagan 73%, Bush 13%
Reagan 167
Bush 45
Others 23 1,748 REMAINING
Uncomm 7
REAGAN: 3.9
March 19 IL: Reagan 48%, Anderson 37%
Reagan 206
Bush 47
Others 43 1,660 REMAINING
Uncomm 34
REAGAN: 6.6
March 28 CT: Bush 39%, Reagan 34%
Reagan 295
Bush 68
Others 49 1,508 REMAINING
Uncomm 70
REAGAN: 14.9
April 2
KS: Reagan 63%, Anderson 18%
WI: Reagan 40%, Bush 30%
Reagan 343
Bush 72
Others 60 1,445 REMAINING
Uncomm 70
REAGAN: 21.5
April 22 PA: Bush 51%, Reagan 43%
Reagan 411
Bush 96
Others 57 1,344 REMAINING
Uncomm 82
REAGAN: 32.2
May 6 TX: Reagan 51%, Bush 47%
Reagan 636
Bush 138
Others 57 1,077 REMAINING
Uncomm 82
REAGAN: 98.4
May 8
IN: Reagan 74%, Bush 16%
NC: Reagan 67%, Bush 22%
TN: Reagan 74%, Bush 18%
Reagan 744
Bush 170
Others 57 937 REMAINING
Uncomm 82
REAGAN: 152.5
May 14
MD: Reagan 48%, Bush 41%
NE: Reagan 76%, Bush 15%
Reagan 821
Bush 186
Others 57 844 REMAINING
Uncomm 82
REAGAN: 206.7
May 21
MI: Bush 58%, Reagan 32%
OR: Reagan 54%, Bush 35%
Reagan 888
Bush 256
Others 56 678 REMAINING
REAGAN: 277.0
June 3
ID: Reagan 83%
KY: Reagan 82%
NV: Reagan 83%
Reagan 1,068
Bush 199
Others 23 554 REMAINING
REAGAN: 560.7
1984 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
Needed to nominate: 1,962 delegates
Walter Mondale stumbled early and often in 1984 but Gary Hart could never land a knock-out punch. Lateseason
victories by Jesse Jackson helped keep Hart's delegate totals low, and by mid-May the Colorado Senator
needed to win 130% of the remaining delegates (an impossibility, of course) in order to get the nomination.
Mondale, meanwhile, kept steadily adding to his delegate score and by May most observers bowed to the
inevitability of the math and -- unlike March or April -- began to treat Mondale as the presumptive nominee.
MOST RECENT PRIMARIES DELEGATE COUNT
DELEGATE
STRENGTH
Feb. 28
IA: Mondale 45%, Hart 15%
Mondale 18
Hart 7
Jackson 7 3,809 REMAINING
Others 35
Uncomm 47
MONDALE: 0.01
March 11
NH: Hart 37%, Mondale 28%
VT: Hart 70%, Mondale 20%
Hart 211
Mondale 126
Jackson 10 3,492 REMAINING
Others 17
Uncomm 67
HART: 0.5
March 15
AL: Mondale 35%, Glenn 21%
FL: Hart 39%, Mondale 33%
GA: Mondale 31%, Hart 27%
MA: Hart 39%, Mondale 26%
RI: Hart 45%, Mondale 35%
Mondale 312
Hart 207
Jackson 37 3,214 REMAINING
Others 51
Uncomm 102
MONDALE: 1.7
March 22 IL: Mondale 40%, Hart 35%
Mondale 640
Hart 358
Jackson 72 2,547 REMAINING
Others 35
Uncomm 271
MONDALE: 12.0
April 7
NY: Mondale 45%, Hart 27%
WI: Hart 44%, Mondale 41%
Mondale 900
Hart 520
Jackson 147 1,966 REMAINING
Others 35
Uncomm 355
MONDALE: 29.5
April 12 PA: Mondale 45%, Hart 33%
Mondale 1,047
Hart 571
Jackson 152 1,764 REMAINING
Others 58
Uncomm 331
MONDALE: 48.0
May 15
DC Jackson 67%, Mondale 26%
TN: Mondale 41%, Hart 29%
LA: Jackson 43%, Hart 25%
IN Hart 42%, Mondale 41%
MD: Mondale 43%, Jackson 26%
NC Mondale 36%, Hart 30%
OH: Hart 42%, Mondale 40%
Mondale 1,532
Hart 886
Jackson 305 812 REMAINING
Others 58
Uncomm 330
MONDALE: 206.9
May 17
ID: Hart 58%, Mondale 30%
NE: Hart 58%, Mondale 27%
OR: Hart 59%, Mondale 28%
Mondale 1,564
Hart 941
Jackson 291 715 REMAINING
Others 58
Uncomm 354
MONDALE: 231.4
June 7
CA: Hart 39%, Mondale 35%
NJ: Mondale 45%, Hart 30%
NM: Hart 51%, Mondale 39%
SD: Hart 51%, Mondale 39%
WV: Mondale 54%, Hart 37%
Mondale 1,969
Hart 1,212
Jackson 367 98 REMAINING
Others 58
Uncomm 219
MONDALE: 2,582
1988 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARIES
Needed to nominate: 2,082 delegates
This was the first year that a real "Super Tuesday" was held (although the term had been used in previous
years), but the result was a muddle rather than the quick coronation of a Democratic nominee. Michael
Dukakis' successful strategy was to outlast his opponents as the pool of remaining delegates dwindled.
Throughout March, it looked like Al Gore or Jesse Jackson could overtaken Dukakis' consistent (if sometimes
tiny) delegate lead. But Jackson lost steam after the primaries moved away from states with large black
populations, and a third-place finish in New York in late April buried Gore's chances. It took Dukakis a few
more victories to convince skeptics that he really was the winner, but resounding victories in Pennsylvania and
three states on May 5 put that skepticism to bed.
MOST RECENT PRIMARIES DELEGATE COUNT
DELEGATE
STRENGTH
March 3
IA: Gephardt 27%, Simon 24%
NH: Dukakis 36%, Gephardt 20%
SD: Gephardt 43%, Dukakis 31%
VT: Dukakis 56%, Jackson 26%
Dukakis 63.5
Gephardt 47 3,713 REMAINING
Simon 35.5
Jackson 27.6
DUKAKIS: 0.1
March 10
AL: Jackson 44%, Gore 37%
AR: Gore 37%, Dukakis 19%
FL: Dukakis 41%, Jackson 20%
GA: Jackson 40%, Gore 33%
KY: Gore 46%, Dukakis 19%
LA: Jackson 36%, Gore 28%
MA: Dukakis 59%, Jackson 19%
MD: Dukakis 46%, Jackson 29%
MO: Gephardt 58%, Jackson 21%
MS: Jackson 45%, Gore 34%
NC: Gore 35%, Jackson 33%
OK: Gore 41%, Gephardt 21%
RI: Dukakis 69%, Jackson 15%
TN: Gore 72%, Jackson 21%
TX: Dukakis 33%, Jackson 25%
VA: Jackson 45%, Gore 22%
Dukakis 466
Jackson 389 2,513 REMAINING
Gore 344
Gephardt 159
DUKAKIS:2.3
March 30
IL: Simon 42%, Jackson 32%
CT: Dukakis 58%, Jackson 28%
Dukakis 607
Jackson 598 1,955 REMAINING
Gore 369
DUKAKIS: 0.5
April 20
WI: Dukakis 48%, Jackson 28%
NY: Dukakis 51%, Jackson 37%
Dukakis 900
Jackson 769 1,261 REMAINING
Gore 419
DUKAKIS: 15.0
April 27 PA: Dukakis 67%, Jackson 27%
Dukakis 1,129
Jackson 780 1,059 REMAINING
Gore 410
DUKAKIS: 59.5
May 5
DC: Jackson 80%, Dukakis 18%
IN: Dukakis 70%, Jackson 23%
OH: Dukakis 63%, Jackson 27%
Dukakis 1,320
Jackson 854 821 REMAINING
Gore 408
DUKAKIS: 120.0
May 18
NE: Dukakis 63%, Jackson 26%
WV: Dukakis 75%, Jackson 14%
OR: Dukakis 57%, Jackson 38%
Dukakis 1,585
Jackson 924 590 REMAINING
Gore 400
DUKAKIS: 284.2
June 8
ID: Dukakis 73%, Jackson 16%
CA: Dukakis 61%, Jackson 35%
MT: Dukakis 69%, Jackson 22%
NJ: Dukakis 63%, Jackson 33%
NM: Dukakis 61%, Jackson 28%
Dukakis 2,167
Jackson 1,054 37 REMAINING
Gore 399
DUKAKIS: 10,424
1988 REPUBLICAN PRIMARIES
Needed to nominate: 1,139 delegates
On the Republican side, Super Tuesday worked as planned, with George Bush the elder running the table on
March 8 and piling up a more than four-to-one advantage over Bob Dole in the delegate count. For the GOP in
1988, the delegate math was not driven by the number of delegates remaining but instead the huge lead that
Bush had piled up, allowing him to clinch the nomination earlier than any previous candidate in the modern
primary era. Even after Super Tuesday, some observers were not convinced (Dole, for example, did not drop
out until March 29), but a solid Bush win in Illinois left no doubt. After Dole withdrew, news organizations
simply stopped counting delegates.
MOST RECENT PRIMARIES DELEGATE COUNT
DELEGATE
STRENGTH
March 3
IA: Dole 37%, Robertson 25%
NH: Bush 38%, Dole 28%
SD: Dole 55%, Robertson 20%
VT: Bush 49%, Dole 39%
Bush 85
Dole 61 2,077 REMAINING
Kemp 35
Robertson 8
BUSH: 0.3
March 10
SC: Bush 49%, Dole 21%
AL: Bush 65%, Dole 16%
AR: Bush 47%, Dole 26%
FL: Bush 62%, Dole 21%
GA: Bush 54%, Dole 24%
KY: Bush 59%, Dole 23%
LA: Bush 59%, Robertson 18%
MA: Bush 59%, Dole 26%
MD: Bush 53%, Dole 33%
MO: Bush 42%, Dole 41%
MS: Bush 66%, Dole 17%
NC: Bush 45%, Dole 39%
OK: Bush 37%, Dole 35%
RI: Bush 65%, Dole 23%
TN: Bush 60%, Dole 22%
TX: Bush 64%, Robertson 15%
VA: Bush 54%, Dole 26%
Bush 700
Dole 164 1,304 REMAINING
Robertson 37
BUSH: 84.2
March 16 IL: Bush 55%, Dole 36%
Bush 769
Dole 177 1,222 REMAINING
Robertson 37
BUSH: 109.0
March 30 CT: Bush 71%, Dole 20%
Bush 837
Dole 177 996 REMAINING
Robertson 37
BUSH: 162.2
 

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