Jason said:Your numbers don't add up right Robert. Maybe it was a typo.
Let's look at the big picture...
The USA consumes over 12.5M metric tons(carcass weight equivalent) of beef yearly. Add in Canada, 13.5M[13,500,000 metric tons]. Japans total beef consumption approaches 1.2M and the amount supplied by the USA/Canadian beef cartel would be a very small percentage of that. But, what effect would opening the Asian markets have on the price of live cattle? I think most would say that it would help maintain high prices...yes?
Now answer me this...if you were in the business of selling beef, would you want to open a very small market that would have the effect of raising your cost of procurement for a very large market??? Opening the Asian markets would be good for the producer...but what is good for the producer, is bad for the processor!!!! Do you really have to wonder why a backbone showed up in a beef shipment to Japan? Until the supply of cattle exceeds demand to the point of reducing the price of live cattle in the USA, don't look for any significant exports!
For the US to consume 12.5 MMT , that's about 40 pounds per person per year. Pretty close, but the US only produces 11.46 MMT and traditionally exports 10% of that.
Canada only produces 1.07 MMT as total production. We eat about 51 pounds per person or about 0.7 MMT
Total world exports are only 7.1 MMT and Japan has to import nearly all their consumption, so 1.2 MMT is significant in that light.
Put it in a different light, the US consumes 10 times what Japan does, but Japan consumes more than Canada's entire production.
Since Japan is a market that yields better prices for beef than domestic markets, how does it follow that processors don't want the market opened? Even if it means higher prices for cattle, it means more dollars in revenue, good for producers and processors.
Jason,
You'll have to take up your numbers argument with Agman's source...the USDA. But I'll check the numbers.
You're right, the USA market is over ten times larger than the Japanese market. Japan and Canada are roughly the same. The question is...will the added income from a small fraction of the Japanese market make up the difference for the increased cost in the USA market? Remember, the USA market is ten times the TOTAL JAPANESE MARKET...so we are talking an exponential comparison.