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Jason

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Canfax Report:

CANFAX REPORT

© 2005 CANFAX a Division of the Canadian Cattlemen’s Association. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or by any means whatsoever, without acknowledging that CANFAX was the author of the publication and is the owner of the copyright. For further information contact CANFAX at (403) 275-5110.

2005 FEDERALLY INSPECTED KILL UNCHANGED

Canadian Federally Inspected slaughter for 2005 totaled 3.66 million head, unchanged from a year ago and 23% higher than 2003. Compared to 2002, total FI slaughter in 2005 was 11% larger. Approximately 75% of the annual FI slaughter took place in the West with Alberta comprising 88% of the western total.


Canadian fed cattle slaughter for 2005 represented 84% of the total slaughter with 1.81 million steers and 1.26 million heifers slaughtered through Federally Inspected facilities. Steer and heifer slaughter for the year were both down 5% from a year ago. Almost 80% of the fed cattle were slaughtered in the West during 2005, similar to the east/west breakdown in 2004. Alberta steer slaughter at 1.27 million head was down 3% from 2004, while Alberta heifer slaughter was down 5% at just under 999,000 head.



Canadian cow slaughter in 2005 was up 34% from 2004 at just over 545,000 head. Quebec and the Atlantic provinces combined slaughtered the most cows, representing 35% of the total FI cow kill. The second largest cow kill was in Saskatchewan/BC/ Manitoba combined, which slaughtered just under 140,000 cows representing 26% of the total cow kill. Canadian bull slaughter increased the most in 2005, up 42% from the year prior at 46,995 head through Federally Inspected facilities. Western bull kill accounted for 74% of total bull slaughter during 2005 of which Saskatchewan/BC/Manitoba contributed 78%.



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Before I break the numbers down for those not familiar with Alberta I will wait to see if others can see what the numbers prove.
 

Beefman

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Jason said:
I guess most are comfortable with not knowing what this proves.

I'd appreciate your thoughts on what you believe this proves.
thanks.
 

Jason

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First off, from the total Canadian federally inspected kill 66% is killed in Alberta.

This is based on 75% is killed in the West and of that 75%, 88% is killed in Alberta. (75 x 88% = 66%)

This number equates to 2.4156 million cattle.

Roperab and others have been under the impression we only have 3 packers in Alberta (Tyson/Lakeside, Cargill and XL) Others have been under the impression Tyson and Cargill control 80-85% of the kill in Canada.

Both impressions are wrong.

If we split the fed cattle numbers from the cows and bulls included above, the % changes slightly probably because Cargill in Alberta is strictly a fed cattle plant.

Alberta kills a combined 2.269 million fed cattle or 73.9% of the total FI fed cattle kill.

Cargill and Tyson are roughly similar in capacity at 3800 hd/day 5 days a week 50 weeks a year each could kill flat out 950,000 head, that allows for no hollidays, no break downs and no labor disruptions. Tyson had a 3 week strike and there is nearly 1 stat holliday per month.

XL can kill about 800 hd/day same number of days is 200,000 hd. Same deal, that allows for no hollidays, slowdowns etc.

This still leaves 2,415,600 - (950,000x2) - 200,000 = 315,600 head There has to be over 1200 head per day capacity in other plants to kill this amount.

Canada wide FI plants killed 590,000 head of cows and bulls. So much for 900,000 head of OTM cattle just standing around waiting to stampede the US.

Using the 950,000 hd number Tyson and Cargill control about 25.9% of the Canadian kill each, or 51.8% combined.

Cargill bought Better Beef and they are a smaller plant that XL, but using the same kill of 200,000 hd/yr that is 5% of the Canadian FI kill.

Market concentration huh?
 

rkaiser

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That took some work Jason.
One thing I think that you have wrong is that Cargill is now killing cows at their High River plant.

I guess the next question would be. Who is killing the other 50% federally?

Eskimos?

Sure have time to protect Cargill and Tyson from horrible folk like me. Do you have time to identify the other 50 or I guess with Better beef IN, 44%.
 

Jason

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Actually Randy it took all of 15 minutes, including typing, and the typing took me longer than the numbers.

Facts aren't that difficult.

There are several small FI plants about the province. Sunterra is the biggest of the small ones I think.

There is one farther North that does only cows, maybe 20 a day.

Bouvry has 2, the one in Fort Macleod is for Horses and Buffalo right now though. His plant in Edmonton was the one that burned and I haven't heard if he got it going again. It was downtown and the city wanted it gone, the costs to do an environmental assesment for one on the outskirts was more than refurbishing the old plant.

Add to the numbers all the provincially inspected plants, and the kill is really spread around. Lethbridge meats can kill 20 head per day, but only kills cattle 3 days a week I believe. They do hogs and don't kill anything Tuesdays. Pincher Creek can kill a similar number, but they only kill 1 or 2 days a week.

There is a pretty decent sized plant down by Medicine Hat, I don't know if they are FI or provincial, Cypress Packers.

All this doesn't even include the cattle shipped South for slaughter.

I had heard Cargill was testing on some cows, but didn't know if they continued. Their chain has to run slow for cows unless they upgraded it, they had a weight limit of 1500 pounds live, unless the just buy small cows.
 

rkaiser

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I found these numbers for weekly capacity as of the fall of 2005

Cargill 29000
Tyson 28200
BetterBeef Cargill 10000
Xcel Calgary 5000
Ryding Regency Ont. 1500
St. Helens Ont. 1500
Atlantic Beef - 500
Billette Que. 1000
Ranchers Alberta. 750

You can do the math yourself Jason. And please don't bring in all of the provincial plants much over the 1000 head max or you will really look like a Tyson\Cargill brown nose.
 

rkaiser

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So far Narurl Valley is Killing at XL in Moose Jaw are they not BMR?

The XL plant would be considered a cow plant, and my little list is more inclined toward young cattle.

It's the same old, on this thread. Jason going to one extreme and Randy the other.

55% is a joke, just like the $3.88 packer profit thing, but the facts are always on the other side of Randy's opinion. :roll: :lol:
 

Jason

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I posted my sources and the math.

Your numbers Randy, would mean a Canadian kill of 3.8725 million head just with those plants listed.

Your over Can-fax numbers by 217,250 head already, and you haven't allowed for Bouvry, Sunterra, Intercity, and that's just in Alberta.

Breaking them down to a daily kill (5 day week)

Cargill 29000 /------------- 5800/day
Tyson 28200 /---------------5640/day
BetterBeef Cargill 10000 /- 2000/day
Xcel Calgary 5000 /---------1000/day
Ryding Regency Ont. 1500 /-300/day
St. Helens Ont. 1500 /--------300/day
Atlantic Beef - 500 /----------100/day
Billette Que. 1000 /-----------200/day
Ranchers Alberta. 750 /------150/day

We all know Tyson and Cargill can't put through 5800 head per day. Better Beef's own web site said they process 750 head per day.

Either your numbers are wrong, or Can-fax is wrong.
 

Manitoba_Rancher

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Randy,

I sure agree with you on the packers making a heck of alot more than $3.88 per head. Anyone who bellieves that bull hasnt looked in the meat counter at the store. One roast can run $25.00 and that wont feed four people for 2 meals. They are stealing the fat cattle and turning big profits on them. Guess who wins in the end?
 

Maple Leaf Angus

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Jason said:
I posted my sources and the math.

Your numbers Randy, would mean a Canadian kill of 3.8725 million head just with those plants listed.

Your over Can-fax numbers by 217,250 head already, and you haven't allowed for Bouvry, Sunterra, Intercity, and that's just in Alberta.

Breaking them down to a daily kill (5 day week)

Cargill 29000 /------------- 5800/day
Tyson 28200 /---------------5640/day
BetterBeef Cargill 10000 /- 2000/day
Xcel Calgary 5000 /---------1000/day
Ryding Regency Ont. 1500 /-300/day
St. Helens Ont. 1500 /--------300/day
Atlantic Beef - 500 /----------100/day
Billette Que. 1000 /-----------200/day
Ranchers Alberta. 750 /------150/day

We all know Tyson and Cargill can't put through 5800 head per day. Better Beef's own web site said they process 750 head per day.

Either your numbers are wrong, or Can-fax is wrong.


Knowing the way that Better Beef historically conducted it's business would make me very cautious about believing anything they say on their website.

They killed 1700 head per day before Cargill bought them and I can't see why the plant would be down-sizing by 50%.

It is also very interesting and gratifying for the beef producers to have read in a published article that Cargill let one of the more visible people from the former company go because, as they said, he just wasn't good for the company's relations with the farmers.

Oh, but they're all good guys and our best friends, right Jason?
 

rkaiser

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I realise that arguing with you will go no where Jason. Cargill and Tyson are simply trying to help the ranchers after all????

Ranchers Beef in Alberta is the Sunterra Plant Bud, and they have never come close to killing 150 a day since they started up at the old Innisfail plant. In fact they have stopped and killed mostly hogs on more than one occasion this fall.

Claude has been killing mostly horses and Bison at his "Bouvry" plant, you'll have to update me on Intercity???

All of the numbers are capacity. What each plant kills is information that neither you or I have.

Whatever numbers work to support your Cargill and Tyson are ONLY good for Canadian Ranchers theory Jason.

I personally see a need for more than two plants with the power and control that they have and use.
 

rkaiser

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Go for it BMR. Maybe SSGA could do it. They probably have more cordial cordiers. Sask government already tried didn't they?
 

Jason

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The numbers I posted were direct from Can-fax.

Intercity is a 3 city packer Edmonton, Vancouver and Toronto. I have no idea on their capacity.

Bouvry has a second plant in Edmonton, I said that before. It is the old Burns hog plant. He was killing cows there.

The numbers just show there are options other than Cargill and Tyson. As I have said numerous times I don't sell fats to either of them.

I just think it is fair to know where the beef is going. If we were to add exported fats and provincial kills it would be fair to say the influence Cargill and Tyson have is even less.

Tyson has a 26% market share in the US, why is it so hard to believe the number is similar in Canada? Because it doesn't fit a preconceived bias.

Every processor on the lists in this thread are looking out for themselves. None of them care if Randy or Jason stay in business. However none of them can stop us from making wise business descisions either.

I appreciate the new info from different sources. Maple Leaf supports a higher capacity for Better Beef, ok I can buy that. I can also buy that they were having PR trouble with feeders. If they were sailing along making millions they wouldn't have sold.

Manitoba, take that $25 roast and see what a roast beef dinner for 4 at a restaruant costs. Is it all profit when you sold the fat steer at $1, so logically the roast should be $5? Remember the shrink, carcass loss from hide etc, labor to cut transport and package the roast. More transport to the store, more labor to load and unload trucks and stock the meat case. Plus all the utilities involved in the slaughter and the retail store.

If you want the $25 for that roast, take it. Kill the fats, process them and sell them. No one is stopping you. Just remember to let us know what your real profit is after all the expenses are paid.
 

Big Muddy rancher

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Yea they did. Guess Swift didn't think there was that much money in the packing industry up here. Just thought since you guys had so much support that you could swing it.
 

Econ101

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Jason it seems that if the packers would open their books to a substantive govt. audit, you wouldn't have to guess and make up a lot of assumptions to come up with correct information. Is the Canadian IRS equivalent this hamstrung when it comes to figuring things out or do they just take the word of the packers like you?
 

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