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Cattle On Grass - Agman

PPRM

Well-known member
Agman,


I see the COF as running 7-8% above last year. I read where a lot of it is due to the lack of winter grazing in the Oklahoma/Texas area this winter. I thought it would be interesting to compare a Cattle on Grass number to the prior year for Feb, March and April. Any idea what the Cattle on winter grazing was this year compared to last? Would the COG maybe be 5% less than last year?


PPRM
 

PORKER

Well-known member
With two of the larger cattle states with no grass ,hay, and wheat grazing non to nill the cattle on feed had to rise and with the 7000-10000 imports from the frozen north ,the price will or could drop into the upper $60's
 

agman

Well-known member
PPRM said:
Agman,


I see the COF as running 7-8% above last year. I read where a lot of it is due to the lack of winter grazing in the Oklahoma/Texas area this winter. I thought it would be interesting to compare a Cattle on Grass number to the prior year for Feb, March and April. Any idea what the Cattle on winter grazing was this year compared to last? Would the COG maybe be 5% less than last year?


PPRM

Placements have been up due to severe drought conditions in the winter wheat grazing areas of the south plains. That said you will not get the usual run of May wheat pasture cattle as many of those cattle are already on feed. May-June placements should decline below year ago levels.

As a result of successive months of large placements feeders outside of feedyards were down 2.5% on April 1. Feeder prices will be dictated more by the health or lack thereof in the fed cattle sector than the supply of feeders. Fed cattle are losing from $60-$180 per head at the present time-remember those high priced feeders.

I do not believe fed cattle prices will trade below $72 this summer/fall provided producers market in a timely manner. The lower prices at the present time are beginning to buy ad space for beef features which will allow the market to absorb the higher production levels expected in the coming months.

Calf prices may give some ground but the biggest pressure on calves will be deferred until the fall movement begins following months of sustained losses in the fed sector. Have a cool one.
 

agman

Well-known member
PORKER said:
Agman, It all depends on IMPORTS !

You can pay attention to imports and I will pay attention the factors that are most dominant. That is domestic supply and demand trends that determine the price of products.
 

PORKER

Well-known member
Agman,you and I both know that as more imports of beef and cattle from other countrys are brought into the US. ,this decreases the US ranch price of cattle. Yes our COF numbers are higher and should be ,but our domestic supply does not cover US consumption of beef.One thing is the the world poultry meat supply is backed up ,becauase no one is wanting to eat chicken from the BIRD FLU areas,Only Beef is consumed and pork is consumed.
Your comment,provided producers market in a timely manner as a rule never Happens
 

Big Muddy rancher

Well-known member
PORKER said:
Agman,you and I both know that as more imports of beef and cattle from other countrys are brought into the US. ,this decreases the US ranch price of cattle. Yes our COF numbers are higher and should be ,but our domestic supply does not cover US consumption of beef.One thing is the the world poultry meat supply is backed up ,becauase no one is wanting to eat chicken from the BIRD FLU areas,Only Beef is consumed and pork is consumed.
Your comment,provided producers market in a timely manner as a rule never Happens

I am not going to get in the "Numbers " fight but porker the carcass weights in Canada have come down about 25 lbs. Reports are we are very current with our marketings.
 

agman

Well-known member
PORKER said:
Agman,you and I both know that as more imports of beef and cattle from other countrys are brought into the US. ,this decreases the US ranch price of cattle. Yes our COF numbers are higher and should be ,but our domestic supply does not cover US consumption of beef.One thing is the the world poultry meat supply is backed up ,becauase no one is wanting to eat chicken from the BIRD FLU areas,Only Beef is consumed and pork is consumed.
Your comment,provided producers market in a timely manner as a rule never Happens

Would we have a higher market today if imports were reduced until our exports are resumed? The answer is yes. That does not dismiss the fact that the main reason domestic prices are lower is because of our own domestic supply of beef and total meat. That is the dominant issue. If you focus on the dominate factors it is not difficult to understand why the market is where it is or where it is going. The market is acting very much like similar analog years that experienced similar domestic supplies.

You are dead wrong to conclude all imports are negative.
 

PPRM

Well-known member
Agman,

Thanks for the reply. I have been nervous about how healthy a $90.00 Fat Cattle market truly is for our industry. My perspectiv goes back to the 70's as a kid and graduating from College in the late 80's. I was trying to find a place in this industry. I saw people stop buying/eating beef. It became a habit to buy other things and I think a lot of people grew up withou the knowledge of cooking beef.

Luckily, it seems barbeque has come back as has culinary entertainment. I have a friend that does a lot of this. He started doing a lot more Pork recently. So I always tend to worry that people will make similar choices and get out of the Beef Habit.

I have always thought, "If you can't make it on a $70.00 Fat Market, maybe you better do something else."

Anyway, I do appreciate your reply, I have found understanding the why behind cattle numbers has been a great help.

PPRM
 

mrj

Well-known member
Good info on the thread!

What is the amount of increase in tonnage of our domestic beef to date this year?

I've got the idea it is equivalent to about 25,000 ADDITIONAL head of cattle marketed. How far off am I on that? Please be kind.....this is an area of the cattle industry that just isn't as interesting to me as others! Not that I don't believe it vitally important....other things are more fun,,...even the variations in color and the shape of horns on different cattle. We have been driving by our seven "retired" older Longhorn steers lately. Wish we could have them more visible more of the time. It is fun to look at them.

MRJ
 

agman

Well-known member
MRJ said:
Good info on the thread!

What is the amount of increase in tonnage of our domestic beef to date this year?

I've got the idea it is equivalent to about 25,000 ADDITIONAL head of cattle marketed. How far off am I on that? Please be kind.....this is an area of the cattle industry that just isn't as interesting to me as others! Not that I don't believe it vitally important....other things are more fun,,...even the variations in color and the shape of horns on different cattle. We have been driving by our seven "retired" older Longhorn steers lately. Wish we could have them more visible more of the time. It is fun to look at them.

MRJ

Depending upon what week you compare the added weight gain has been the equivalent of adding 13,000-25,000 head per week to the kill. Each one pound gain in carcass weight versus the previous year is equivalent to adding 1,000 head per week to the kill. The point is the added carcass weight is adding more to production than cattle imports.

Did you get my PM?
 

agman

Well-known member
Big Muddy rancher said:
PORKER said:
Agman,you and I both know that as more imports of beef and cattle from other countrys are brought into the US. ,this decreases the US ranch price of cattle. Yes our COF numbers are higher and should be ,but our domestic supply does not cover US consumption of beef.One thing is the the world poultry meat supply is backed up ,becauase no one is wanting to eat chicken from the BIRD FLU areas,Only Beef is consumed and pork is consumed.
Your comment,provided producers market in a timely manner as a rule never Happens

I am not going to get in the "Numbers " fight but porker the carcass weights in Canada have come down about 25 lbs. Reports are we are very current with our marketings.

I am quite certain the decline in carcass weights you experienced is very seasonal. What you need to examine is whether they declined faster or slower than normal to determine what front-end fed cattle supplies are doing.

In the U.S carcass weights normally trend lower from January into late April or early May. Then they turn up into the September-October period.
Carcass weights in the U.S. are likely beginning to turn up now after declining much less than their seasonal norm from January-April.
 

RobertMac

Well-known member
PPRM said:
My perspectiv goes back to the 70's as a kid and graduating from College in the late 80's. I was trying to find a place in this industry. I saw people stop buying/eating beef. It became a habit to buy other things and I think a lot of people grew up withou the knowledge of cooking beef.

PPRM

Very perceptive for a young kid. :wink: :D
I was about ten years ahead of you and noticed the anti-beef attitude of the 'vocal' public that HAS influenced the general public with wrong information...and had no connection to the beef industry at that time. I won't hesitate to say the vast majority of BAD eating experiences with beef can be attributed to UNKNOWLEDGEABLE COOKING! :( Convincing the public that beef is the most nutritious and healthy food they can eat is vital to our survival and will drive the market instead of these numbers.

Have y'all noticed the references to trans-fats being linked to health problems(trans-fat levels are to be required on food labels). Trans-fats are even starting to be linked to hydrogenated vegetable oils(duh...trans-fats are a product of hydrogenation). Why is this important?...because saturated animal fats were demonized to promote these cheap, unhealthy vegetable oils(margarine for butter; crisco for beef tallow and lard). Convince the public(with the truth) that saturated animals fats are part of a healthy diet and beef demand goes through the roof as ground beef becomes a health food!!!!!! :D
 

Econ101

Well-known member
RobertMac said:
PPRM said:
My perspectiv goes back to the 70's as a kid and graduating from College in the late 80's. I was trying to find a place in this industry. I saw people stop buying/eating beef. It became a habit to buy other things and I think a lot of people grew up withou the knowledge of cooking beef.

PPRM

Very perceptive for a young kid. :wink: :D
I was about ten years ahead of you and noticed the anti-beef attitude of the 'vocal' public that HAS influenced the general public with wrong information...and had no connection to the beef industry at that time. I won't hesitate to say the vast majority of BAD eating experiences with beef can be attributed to UNKNOWLEDGEABLE COOKING! :( Convincing the public that beef is the most nutritious and healthy food they can eat is vital to our survival and will drive the market instead of these numbers.

Have y'all noticed the references to trans-fats being linked to health problems(trans-fat levels are to be required on food labels). Trans-fats are even starting to be linked to hydrogenated vegetable oils(duh...trans-fats are a product of hydrogenation). Why is this important?...because saturated animal fats were demonized to promote these cheap, unhealthy vegetable oils(margarine for butter; crisco for beef tallow and lard). Convince the public(with the truth) that saturated animals fats are part of a healthy diet and beef demand goes through the roof as ground beef becomes a health food!!!!!! :D

Robert Mac, the mechanics behind how this happened are of interest to me. Do you have any resources in that direction?

Maybe the beef checkoff should take notice.
 

Big Muddy rancher

Well-known member
agman said:
Big Muddy rancher said:
PORKER said:
Agman,you and I both know that as more imports of beef and cattle from other countrys are brought into the US. ,this decreases the US ranch price of cattle. Yes our COF numbers are higher and should be ,but our domestic supply does not cover US consumption of beef.One thing is the the world poultry meat supply is backed up ,becauase no one is wanting to eat chicken from the BIRD FLU areas,Only Beef is consumed and pork is consumed.
Your comment,provided producers market in a timely manner as a rule never Happens

I am not going to get in the "Numbers " fight but porker the carcass weights in Canada have come down about 25 lbs. Reports are we are very current with our marketings.

I am quite certain the decline in carcass weights you experienced is very seasonal. What you need to examine is whether they declined faster or slower than normal to determine what front-end fed cattle supplies are doing.

In the U.S carcass weights normally trend lower from January into late April or early May. Then they turn up into the September-October period.
Carcass weights in the U.S. are likely beginning to turn up now after declining much less than their seasonal norm from January-April.

You are probably right Agman as we have switched from yearlings to fed calves as the major portion of the kill. Anne at Canfax still says that we are current in our marketings so at least we aren't shooting our selves in the foot.
 

RobertMac

Well-known member
Econ101 said:
Robert Mac, the mechanics behind how this happened are of interest to me. Do you have any resources in that direction?

Maybe the beef checkoff should take notice.

Someone should get the CBB a computer and teach them how to do a google search, then contact some of the researchers they find for more info. This "having to do the research before they can promote something" is a load of BS...or just a way to funnel money through NCBA...or an excuse to delay aggressive promotion of beef (that may end up taking some market share from poultry). Frankly, I don't know what CBB's problem is, but the fact is that they are NOT accomplishing their job of regaining market share for beef...USA or any beef!

http://www.westonaprice.org/knowyourfats/oiling.html
 

mrj

Well-known member
Econ101 said:
RobertMac said:
PPRM said:
My perspectiv goes back to the 70's as a kid and graduating from College in the late 80's. I was trying to find a place in this industry. I saw people stop buying/eating beef. It became a habit to buy other things and I think a lot of people grew up withou the knowledge of cooking beef.

PPRM

Very perceptive for a young kid. :wink: :D
I was about ten years ahead of you and noticed the anti-beef attitude of the 'vocal' public that HAS influenced the general public with wrong information...and had no connection to the beef industry at that time. I won't hesitate to say the vast majority of BAD eating experiences with beef can be attributed to UNKNOWLEDGEABLE COOKING! :( Convincing the public that beef is the most nutritious and healthy food they can eat is vital to our survival and will drive the market instead of these numbers.

Have y'all noticed the references to trans-fats being linked to health problems(trans-fat levels are to be required on food labels). Trans-fats are even starting to be linked to hydrogenated vegetable oils(duh...trans-fats are a product of hydrogenation). Why is this important?...because saturated animal fats were demonized to promote these cheap, unhealthy vegetable oils(margarine for butter; crisco for beef tallow and lard). Convince the public(with the truth) that saturated animals fats are part of a healthy diet and beef demand goes through the roof as ground beef becomes a health food!!!!!! :D

Robert Mac, the mechanics behind how this happened are of interest to me. Do you have any resources in that direction?

Maybe the beef checkoff should take notice.

Econ, the Beef Checkoff leaders did so......long ago. The research they are coordinating to PROVE the facts is about ready. The next logical step will be to convince the government that the right thing to do is allow health labels to give the details about healthful beef fats to consumers.

MRJ
 

RobertMac

Well-known member
MRJ said:
Econ, the Beef Checkoff leaders did so......long ago. The research they are coordinating to PROVE the facts is about ready. The next logical step will be to convince the government that the right thing to do is allow health labels to give the details about healthful beef fats to consumers.

MRJ

The proof of the details of healthful beef fats started coming out in the mid-80s...why the rush??????????????
 

Econ101

Well-known member
RobertMac said:
MRJ said:
Econ, the Beef Checkoff leaders did so......long ago. The research they are coordinating to PROVE the facts is about ready. The next logical step will be to convince the government that the right thing to do is allow health labels to give the details about healthful beef fats to consumers.

MRJ

The proof of the details of healthful beef fats started coming out in the mid-80s...why the rush??????????????

By mechanics, I mean the advertising/propaganda campaign that brought about these changes. I remember the "health" studies at that time that obviously were paid propaganda that made the news. A little quip here, a little quip there. Soon it became the accepted "reality".

MRJ, Beef checkoff did not stop the tide. It failed miserably and we have the results to show it. Stop claiming they did ANYTHING short of making it look as if something was being done.
 
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