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Cattle outlook

Big Muddy rancher

Well-known member
Cattle Outlook
Glenn Grimes & Ron Plain,
University of Missouri - Columbia
February 22, 2008



Fed Cattle trade finally showed a negotiated sale of 140,459 head through
Friday. The weighted average price for the five-market area for live cattle
at $91.00 per cwt was up $0.85 per cwt from the price through Thursday but
was down $0.65 from a week earlier. The weighted average carcass price for
the five-market area at $145 per cwt for the full week was down $0.50 from
the price through Thursday and down $2.25 for the full week compared to a
week earlier.



Beef and veal exports for all of 2007 were up 25 percent from 2006. Beef
imports for last year were down 1.05 percent from a year earlier. Net beef
imports as a percent of production in 2007 at 6.13 percent down from 7.42
percent from 2006. The increase in beef exports along with population
growth is the major reason why live fed cattle demand was up more from a
year earlier in 2007 than consumer demand for beef.



Our beef exports in 2007 were up 208.7 percent to Japan, down 11.35 percent
to Mexico, up sharply to South Korea, up 41.9 percent to Canada, up 4.9
percent to Taiwan, up 155.1 percent to Hong Kong, up 303.4 percent to
Vietnam, down 23 percent to the Bahamas and up 28.1 percent to other
countries from twelve months earlier.



Live cattle imports from Mexico were down 13.3 percent but up 36.2 percent
from Canada. Total live cattle imports in 2007 were up 9 percent from 2006.



The January 1 cattle inventory in Canada showed the total number of cattle
and calves down 1.5 percent on January 1, 2008 from 2007. The total number
of cows and heifers that have calved on January 1 was down 0.7 percent from
12 months earlier.



Some trade observers were expecting a larger reduction in Canada's cattle
herd then stats Canada show. Therefore, these small reductions are a bit of
a disappointment.



USDA long term projections of beef consumption per capita in 2017 is for a
decline from 65 pounds last year to 60.1 pounds in 2017.Pork is projected
to decline from 50.5 pounds in 2007 to 48.8 pounds in 2017 and broilers are
projected to increase from 85.4 pounds in 2007 to 88.1 pounds per capita in
2017.



Assuming a continued growth in population of a little less than one percent
a year in the U.S., these projections would mean the broiler industry would
be 12 percent larger in 2017 than 2007. The pork industry would be five
percent larger in 2017 than 2007 and the beef industry would be the same
size in 2017 as 2007. The projected sizes of these industries also assumed
imports and exports continue at the 2007 level through 2017.



The trade estimate of the cattle on feed for February show the number of
cattle on feed up 2.3 percent, the percent on feed during January up 9.5
percent and the number of fed marketings during January up 1.7 percent from
2007.



Feeder steers 600-800 pounds were steady to $2 per cwt higher. Steers over
800 pounds and all feeder heifers steady to $2 per cwt lower, steer and
heifer calves steady to $2 per cwt lower than last week at Oklahoma City.



The range in prices for medium and large frame number 1 steers by weight
groups this week were: 450-500 pounds at $124-134 per cwt, 500-600 pounds
$115-128 per cwt, 600-700 pounds $108.75-118 per cwt, 700-800 pounds
$100.50-111.50 per cwt and 800-950 pounds $93-102.25 per cwt.



Wholesale beef priced had Choice beef at $148.38 per cwt Friday morning
down $1.07 per cwt from a week earlier. Select beef was at $146.44 per cwt,
down $1.43 per cwt from seven days earlier.



The fed cattle trade was very light through Thursday with only a little
over 6 thousand head in the negotiated trade. Live fed cattle prices
weighted average for the five-market area were at $89.90 per cwt down $0.25
from a week earlier. Weighted average carcass prices at $145.90, up $0.40
from seven days earlier for the five-market area.



Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was estimated at 620 thousand
head, down 2.5 percent from a year earlier.



The Cattle on Feed report came in a little more positive than the trade
estimate. The number on feed was expected to be up 2.3 percent, USDA
estimate showed a 2 percent increase. The trade estimate on the placement
on feed number during January showed a 9.5 percent increase USDA numbers
show an increase of 5.7 percent. Fed marketings during January showed a
increase of 0.9 percent. The trade estimate was for a 1.7 percent increase.




Looks like the US is riding Canada's shirt tails. :p
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
We need somewhere to ship those downer California cows and dairy beef...If someone gets sick up there 10 years down the line, it'll just be accepted as the inevitable happening anyway..... :wink:
 

Kato

Well-known member
There has been a mad rush by American cattle buyers to get as many Canadian feeders south of the border as they can before MCOOL kicks in. But they're not paying for them... they're getting them cheap cheap cheap. :shock: :shock: :shock:

They're still grabbing up as many as they can if they will be finished by summer, but they've gone real cold on the lighter ones. There are also Canadian owned cattle heading south to be fed because your cost of gain is more than 10 cents a pound less than ours.

To say our markets are uncertain right now is an understatement to say the least. No one knows what to do next.

And if what's happening in our province is any indication, they are way wrong on the size of the Canadian cow herd too. We are still having herd dispersal sales every week here, and this is not a normal time of year for this to be happening.
 

3words

Well-known member
And if what's happening in our province is any indication, they are way wrong on the size of the Canadian cow herd too. We are still having herd dispersal sales every week here, and this is not a normal time of year for this to be happening.[/quote]
I have to agree with you,they are way off on what they think the canadian cow herd is.In my area there is only 4 large cattle herds left,and a couple of small ones left,and it's just a matter of time before the small ones will be gone to.Most bred cow sales are still selling 500 cows or more,and a lot of those cows are going for slaughter.
 

Denny

Well-known member
Kato said:
There has been a mad rush by American cattle buyers to get as many Canadian feeders south of the border as they can before MCOOL kicks in. But they're not paying for them... they're getting them cheap cheap cheap. :shock: :shock: :shock:

They're still grabbing up as many as they can if they will be finished by summer, but they've gone real cold on the lighter ones. There are also Canadian owned cattle heading south to be fed because your cost of gain is more than 10 cents a pound less than ours.

To say our markets are uncertain right now is an understatement to say the least. No one knows what to do next.

And if what's happening in our province is any indication, they are way wrong on the size of the Canadian cow herd too. We are still having herd dispersal sales every week here, and this is not a normal time of year for this to be happening.

Are all the cows in the herd dispersals going to slaughter???

If not their still produceing just at a new address.We have had several dispersal's here also but there is alway's a line of people willing to fill the pasture's and make the hay.The junk cows will go to slaughter at any sale as they should..We have lot's of cows here that are plenty good but they sell for slaughter anyhow.This business is'nt any easier on the south side of the line.Just different obstical's.Here in Mn they keep finding more cases of TB so our TB status is about to drop another notch by fall we will have to TB test all of our feeder calves for them to leave the state.more time and expense..
 

Big Muddy rancher

Well-known member
Denny said:
Kato said:
There has been a mad rush by American cattle buyers to get as many Canadian feeders south of the border as they can before MCOOL kicks in. But they're not paying for them... they're getting them cheap cheap cheap. :shock: :shock: :shock:

They're still grabbing up as many as they can if they will be finished by summer, but they've gone real cold on the lighter ones. There are also Canadian owned cattle heading south to be fed because your cost of gain is more than 10 cents a pound less than ours.

To say our markets are uncertain right now is an understatement to say the least. No one knows what to do next.

And if what's happening in our province is any indication, they are way wrong on the size of the Canadian cow herd too. We are still having herd dispersal sales every week here, and this is not a normal time of year for this to be happening.

Are all the cows in the herd dispersals going to slaughter???

If not their still produceing just at a new address.We have had several dispersal's here also but there is alway's a line of people willing to fill the pasture's and make the hay.The junk cows will go to slaughter at any sale as they should..We have lot's of cows here that are plenty good but they sell for slaughter anyhow.This business is'nt any easier on the south side of the line.Just different obstical's.Here in Mn they keep finding more cases of TB so our TB status is about to drop another notch by fall we will have to TB test all of our feeder calves for them to leave the state.more time and expense..


Your right Denny. The cow business is no bed of roses either side of the line. Lots of dispersals but the cow numbers don't seem to be dropping like they should or need to.
In the cattle outlook posted above i was just trying to point out that trade is a two way street. Let economics work.Those Great lakes are a long way around going north.
 

Kato

Well-known member
In the past three years we've bought 80 bred cows. They all replaced heifers that have gone to market instead, so they didn't go toward making the herd bigger.

I know what you're going through Denny. Just north of us there was a couple of herds that showed positive for TB a few years ago, and it caused a whole lot of trouble for a lot of people. It was in the elk in Riding Mountain National Park, and all the land around the park was zoned as a higher risk. They still go out and monitor herds regularly. It causes a lot of problems for the producers to have to run their entire herd through the chute a couple of times for testing, but what do you do? It's got to be done. They built a lot of fences around feed yards, and also have regulations against leaving hay in the field too long after it's baled. It seems to have worked though, because they haven't found any for a long while now. Hunters all turn in lungs to the conservation offices too, so they can monitor the elk. Hopefully they can get a handle on it for you guys too.

A question.... Does anyone here, on either side of the border know anyone who is getting into the cattle business? I can't think of a single person around here who is, just people getting out.
 

Sandhusker

Well-known member
There's a few younger guys who are more or less just taking over the family place, but that's about it. I think people are looking at the return on net assets that you can expect from a ranch and the work that goes into it and it just isn't appealing at all. You figure all the money you have invested in land, cattle, and equipment and what you're going to make on that investment and compare with putting that money into a CD or government bond and you find the CD is safer, provides a higher return, and no effort.
 

Denny

Well-known member
I have one friend who is selling his cows,tearing out the fences and putting up pivot's.

A few young guys here are but more so just 10 or 20 head for a hobby...
I had one friend who sold out last fall he was grain farming,he called a month ago wondering how many cows it takes to make a living from.I replied I don't know I have 250 and still work out.He thought 60 cows would make him a living I advised him otherwise..
 

PORKER

Well-known member
Tough times for feedlot cattle down under in Australia
// 26 feb 2008

The feedlot cattle industry in Australia is facing a crisis, with stocking rates at unprecedented lows. It is a disturbing situation according to the recently-retired vice-president of the Australian Lot Feeders Association, Kevin Roberts.


"The feedlot industry is now down to less than 50% capacity. There's a capacity of 1.2 million head and the last survey has shown we are less than 50% cattle on feed.

"The factors are very compounding. There's a high cost of feeder cattle, high cost of grain and a poor result when you sell the stock into the export market, so it's very challenging at the moment." Feedlots are usually heavily-stocked as the cattle are hand-fed to fatten them before sale.
 

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