Cattle trade may resume soon

[Anonymous]

T: Mike Johanns quote..."If beef supplies don't increase and drive down prices, "American consumers will start choosing other sources of protein," he said. "The price of beef is getting very, very high per household."

FROM A CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE beef prices, RELATIVE TO PORK AND POULTRY were too high.

That's a fact!

Ask any retailer.

Johanns was not speaking from a PRODUCER PERSPECTIVE, he was speaking from a CONSUMER PERSPECTIVE (Johanns: "American consumers will start chosing....."). Johanns statement reflects the attiudes of most beef consumers.

Tommy, I asked my wife why we eat chicken so much instead of beef. You know what she said? THE PRICE OF BEEF IS TOO HIGH! She has been involved in ranching her entire life.

Maybe you should jump on her case for making that statement from a consumer's perspective.

Johanns simply told the truth FROM A CONSUMERS PERSPECTIVE.

I'm surprised you guys couldn't figure that one out on your own.



~SH~

 

[RobertMac]

SH, if the price of beef is too high, then consumers would stop eating it and the price would come down...supply and demand, right? :???: So why is the price staying up? Do you have a problem with an Ag. Sec. working to bring down the price of cattle???

 

[Anonymous]

RM: "SH, if the price of beef is too high, then consumers would stop eating it and the price would come down...supply and demand, right? So why is the price staying up?"

Retail beef prices have declined from their previous highs.

Where have you been?

Also remember demand is a price/quantity relationship.

RM: "Do you have a problem with an Ag. Sec. working to bring down the price of cattle???"

That is a bullsh*t statement!

How is Johanns working to lower cattle prices? By not agreeing with R-CULT's inconsistant lies about BSE?

There is not a USDA secretary that you R-CULTers won't bitch about.

To the contrary, Johanns is working to open our export markets which would raise the price of our cattle. Meanwhile, R-CULT is muddying those waters with their inconsistant stance on "high risk" Canadian live cattle vs. the U.S. having "the safest beef in the world" now that we both have had BSE in our native herds.

Normalized trade, which includes opening the Canadian border to live cattle and opening our Japanese and South Korean beef exports simultaneously would raise prices, not lower them.


~SH~

 

[RobertMac]

SH, watch as the price of live cattle come down...and I will certainly enjoy you razing me if I'm wrong...but, unfortunately, I doubt if I am.

 

[Tam]

RM: "SH, if the price of beef is too high, then consumers would stop eating it and the price would come down...supply and demand, right? So why is the price staying up?"

Retail beef prices have declined from their previous highs.

Where have you been?

Also remember demand is a price/quantity relationship.

RM: "Do you have a problem with an Ag. Sec. working to bring down the price of cattle???"

That is a bullsh*t statement!

How is Johanns working to lower cattle prices? By not agreeing with R-CULT's inconsistant lies about BSE?

There is not a USDA secretary that you R-CULTers won't bitch about.

To the contrary, Johanns is working to open our export markets which would raise the price of our cattle. Meanwhile, R-CULT is muddying those waters with their inconsistant stance on "high risk" Canadian live cattle vs. the U.S. having "the safest beef in the world" now that we both have had BSE in our native herds.

Normalized trade, which includes opening the Canadian border to live cattle and opening our Japanese and South Korean beef exports simultaneously would raise prices, not lower them.


~SH~

I have to laugh at your statement about "There is not a USDA secretary that you R-CULTers won't bitch about." As in January when Bush announced who was replacing Anne V. all we heard from these R-CALFers was how now we will get somewhere as He is from Nebraska and he knows the plight of the Cattle industry and he was a R-CALF man all the way. Looks like when he saw the big picture he must of seen something R-CALF wasn't telling him about. Maybe he saw the same thing the Three Court of Appeal Judges saw that Cebull didn't, THE TRUTH. By the way I thought Oldtimer or one of you R-CALFers said don't be so sure the Court of Appeal will over turn Cebull as one of the Appeal Judges was a Brother in Law of Cebulls. If true it looks like he can disagree with his Brother in Law about as mush as anyone else can.

 

[feeder]

Good morning, Yes you are right about many in the Midwest thought Johanns would be a great guy for agriculture. But the way things are run down here, if Johanns didn't push for Bush's agendas he most likely would not have the job. That is why I feel Johanns looks like a fish out of water when he tries to give a speech. It is like he doesn't believe in what he is saying.

 

[Anonymous]

RM: "SH, watch as the price of live cattle come down...and I will certainly enjoy you razing me if I'm wrong...but, unfortunately, I doubt if I am."

What's your point Robert Mac?

Are you going to blame Johanns for a decrease in consumer discretionary spending on beef due to higher fuel prices?

Are you going to blame Johanns for not agreeing to deceive Japanese consumers with the BSE tested beef deception ASSUMING THE JAPANESE GOVERNMENT WOULD HAVE EVEN ALLOWED IT?

Are you going to blame Johanns for poultry and pork prices (beefs real competition)?

Are you going to blame Johanns for not supporting R-CULT's lies about the safety of Canadian beef?

Are you going to blame Johanns for increased carcass weights in the feedlot?

Only a complete idiot would look at a single factor affecting live cattle prices and disregard all others.

Of course prices will fall with the opening of the boarder IF ALL OTHER MARKET FACTORS REMAIN THE SAME. How much? As a general rule of thumb, every 1% change in production affects cattle prices about 1.5%.

If we gain back our export markets at the same time and ALL OTHER MARKET FACTORS REMAIN THE SAME, we will see an increase in fat cattle prices? Shouldn't that be the ultimate goal.

Bet you won't credit Johanns for that will you?



~SH~

 

[Faster horses]

Good morning, Scott. I have enjoyed your posts on the ruling of the court yesterday.

My radical R-calf friend in Red Lodge called me last night wanting to know if I was happy now. I said, "well, I expected it to happen~for sure."
He said the board was down the limit yesterday, but he also told me the Dow was down 150 and he was really wrong about that. (It was up 71.50). I don't listen to the radio much, so didn't know if he was right about the futures market. I told him that I had expected it would have a physicological effect on the market. He said we are going to get more cattle from Canada that we have ever gotten.
I told him Canada doesn't have enough cattle to really worry about and then he told me that since 2002 Canada had increased their cattle herd from 9 million to 15 million head. Do you know if that is accurate at all? I haven't seen this addressed anyplace, but I told my friend I would find out the TRUTH and get back to him.

One more thing, he said they are going to allow cattle in that are over 30 months of age. I was sure they aren't going to do that. So what do you know about that?

There really isn't much reasoning with these guys. You are so right in that they believe they are being conspired against CONSTANTLY.


What is happening, is that they are being DECEIVED constantly and they must like it. They keep paying for it.

It just has been so interesting to me how this has played out, after I caught on to what was really happening. Thanks mostly to you.

 

[redriver]

Faster, your friend from Red Lodge is wrong on all counts. Is that really what r-cult is telling their members? If so, they are even more dangerous than anyone thought. When you're willing to lie blatantly to the people who pay your wages, then lying to the public is easy.
I hope that he didn't just make up those lies in his own head, cause that would be pathetic.

 

[Sandhusker]

Your friend is misinformed, but he didn't get that information from R-CALF. I get everything he should be getting and what he is claiming did NOT come from Billings.

 

[RobertMac]

SH: "Of course prices will fall with the opening of the boarder IF ALL OTHER MARKET FACTORS REMAIN THE SAME."

Market factors never remain the same. Canadian fats will come down and replace USA fats on the hook and the USA fats will stay in the feed lots...and we know what happens to fats when they don't stay current...carcass weights go up and we have even more increase in supply. Retail prices will lag behind the drop in cattle prices, so domestic usage will at best remain the same. Net increase in supply.

SH: "If we gain back our export markets at the same time and ALL OTHER MARKET FACTORS REMAIN THE SAME, we will see an increase in fat cattle prices? Shouldn't that be the ultimate goal."

Do you honestly believe Japan and S.K. are going to open their markets to us in the next few days? So your 'same time' idea is just wishful thinking...at best! I've already shot down your 'ALL OTHER MARKET FACTORS REMAIN THE SAME' dreaming. If Japan and S.K. are boycotting our beef because of BSE, why will importing beef from another country with BSE change their minds?????

Like I said, I hope you are right on this, but the purpose of opening the border was to bring down the price of ground beef from $2.55 to $1.85 and that will happen with a drop in live cattle prices. An increase in fat cattle prices is not what AMI and the packers want...it's a shame so many produces don't see that!!!!!

 

[redriver]

RM
Importing Canadian prime beef isn't going to bring down the price of hamburger. You aren't even a cattleman, are you? If you were, you wouldn't be making such ridiculous staements.

 

[rancher]

RM
Importing Canadian prime beef isn't going to bring down the price of hamburger. You aren't even a cattleman, are you? If you were, you wouldn't be making such ridiculous staements.

On that college education you was talking about...... well maybe they will have a recall and you can get your money back.

 

[RobertMac]

RM
Importing Canadian prime beef isn't going to bring down the price of hamburger. You aren't even a cattleman, are you? If you were, you wouldn't be making such ridiculous staements.

Show us that IQ...just how much of a hanging carcass is prime beef????
Oh, I forgot, all of a Canadian carcass is tenderloin and steaks

 

[Mike]

RM
Importing Canadian prime beef isn't going to bring down the price of hamburger. You aren't even a cattleman, are you? If you were, you wouldn't be making such ridiculous staements.

On that college education you was talking about...... well maybe they will have a recall and you can get your money back.

Might be hard to get a refund on something with no value. :wink:

 

[Anonymous]

Oh for crying out loud Robert Mac!

I never said ALL OTHER MARKET FACTORS WILL REMAIN THE SAME.

I isolated two factors (the Canadian border and our export markets) in two seperate statements to discuss their impact on our cattle markets by stating "IF ALL OTHER MARKET FACTORS REMAIN THE SAME.

How else can anyone accurately speak of one factor's affects on the market without the disclaimer "all other factors remaining the same"?

If all other market factors would remain the same, WHICH I KNOW THEY WON'T ROBERT MAC, Canadian live cattle imports will negatively impact our cattle prices by about 7.5%.

If all other market factors would remain the same, WHICH I KNOW THEY WON'T ROBERT MAC, and if our export markets resumed at the same time the Canadian border opened, WHICH THEY PROBABLY WON'T ROBERT MAC, we would see an increase in our cattle prices.

Did that help to explain my point any better????

Do you honestly think you need to point out the various market factors to me when I am the one who repeatedly states all these various factors that play on the market while the R-CULTers like you are trying to isolate one factor and give it credit?

I have to believe you are toying with me again because nobody could be that dense!



~SH~

 

[Anonymous]

THANKS TO NCBA FOR HELPING OUT THE PRODUCER :???: .........

-------------------------------------------
CATTLE:

Trend: Short Term Down, Long Term Down



Sentiment: More Supply means lower prices. Regardless of your political leanings, you have to realize that higher supplies mean lower prices. So whether you are a happy member of the NCBA or an upset member of R-CALF, guess what? Your cattle are worth less than they were yesterday. Since slaughter capacity has increased in Canada we will be getting fewer cattle than we did before the border was closed, but that just means we are getting more beef than we were before. That is one of the reasons that boxed beef prices have trended lower for 11 weeks.



I haven't been bullish cattle for a while anyway, and this just makes it harder for me to be. Feeder cattle will take the biggest hit, partly because they were too high in the first place and partly because feeder cattle will come into the US in greater numbers than live cattle at least in the beginning.



There is still a $12/cwt spread between US and Canadian live cattle prices, but that should narrow as time goes by. I suspect it will be because our price goes down and theirs goes up.



Action: You have to be short until something changes. This is especially true in the FC. Any of my recent recommendations would be working great right now. LC shouldn't be under as much pressure, but I still don't like the outlook. Do you realize that Oct 2003 LC futures were at about $72.50 before the border was closed? A conservative approach would be to buy August LC and sell Oct LC.





Schwieterman Marketing, L.L.C.

1616 Kansas Avenue

Garden City, KS 67846

 

[Anonymous]

The alternative was for Canada to absorb that same portion of our export markets. Canadian live cattle and beef will not disappear from the world market.

The other fact that these guys need to realize is that the net between normal imports and normal exports is $40 more per head for our cattle.

Why should Japan and South Korea take our beef if we are unwilling to take Canadian live cattle.


Why doesn't he just say, I'm mad because the courts wouldn't believe R-CULT's lies about the safety of Canadian beef.


~SH~

 

[Anonymous]

FH: "I told him Canada doesn't have enough cattle to really worry about and then he told me that since 2002 Canada had increased their cattle herd from 9 million to 15 million head. Do you know if that is accurate at all? I haven't seen this addressed anyplace, but I told my friend I would find out the TRUTH and get back to him."

Perhaps the Canadian producers on this board could shine some light on that for you but let's just look at the obvious. Why on earth would the Canadian cattle industry expand when they are losing money?

That doesn't even equate!

FH: "One more thing, he said they are going to allow cattle in that are over 30 months of age. I was sure they aren't going to do that. So what do you know about that?"

I hadn't heard that!


Sorry, I'm not much help with either question without doing some reasearch which I don't have time for right now.



~SH~

 

[agman]

FH: "I told him Canada doesn't have enough cattle to really worry about and then he told me that since 2002 Canada had increased their cattle herd from 9 million to 15 million head. Do you know if that is accurate at all? I haven't seen this addressed anyplace, but I told my friend I would find out the TRUTH and get back to him."

Perhaps the Canadian producers on this board could shine some light on that for you but let's just look at the obvious. Why on earth would the Canadian cattle industry expand when they are losing money?

That doesn't even equate!

FH: "One more thing, he said they are going to allow cattle in that are over 30 months of age. I was sure they aren't going to do that. So what do you know about that?"

I hadn't heard that!


Sorry, I'm not much help with either question without doing some reasearch which I don't have time for right now.



~SH~

On the first point the Canadian herd has expanded. By default, those cattle not exported remain in the domestic herd and have caused an increase in Canadian cattle inventories. On the second point, cattle over thirty months of age are NOT allowed into the U.S. from Canada.

Three loads of fed cattle crossed the border today from Canada. Ironically, one of my customers shipped two loads of fed cattle into Canada today. Cargill will double-shift the Better Beef plant which will require more cattle from the U.S. - how ironic. For those who do not know the Better Beef plant is in eastern Canada. It is much closer to ship cattle from the U.S than shipping cattle from Alberta or western Canada. Net, Cargill's purchase of the Better Beef plant should help increase demand for U.S. fed cattle in the upper mid-west. So goes the world of trade.