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China?

MsSage

Well-known member
Is this the next shoe to fall?

http://www.reuters.com/article/hotStocksNews/idUSTRE56T3EA20090831

Jitters about the Chinese economy, the world's second largest oil consumer, also weighed on other Asian stock markets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=acmjEkW2.Yjc

Sept. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The Shanghai Composite Index, the world’s worst performer in August, may fall another 25 percent as China’s economic recovery isn’t “sustainable,” former Morgan Stanley Asian economist Andy Xie said.
 

hypocritexposer

Well-known member
The Chinese are getting tired of the US/Fed toxic assets (Deriavitives), and are getting rid of USD's by buying up tangible resources and working towards a new Global reserve currency, backed by resources.

They know dang well that the US cannot ever repay the debt. The perception is that the Obama administration is transferring the wealth US citizen's (through Bank Bailouts etc), before the USD is worthless.

The estimate on the losses that China will incur, for dumping USD, is about 40% of value. By taking on further debt (say about 100%) and then dumping it, you will have approx. the same value you started with.

Are the Banks using TARP funds for the same goal?

How's the price of GOLD?

The New York Times, Oct 8th 2008: “The derivatives market is $531 trillion, up from $106 trillion in 2002″. This market is setup with odds similar to a racetrack. Trillions are won and lost (transferred) every second. But unlike a racetrack the big players have ultimate control. Their trillions can make stocks move. A 4% up swing in a stock can cause a derivative bet to rise more than 100% in value or vice versa. A low performing stock that rises only 6% a year could actually have many 3, 6 or 9 percent swings weekly or monthly (some stocks daily). There are billions to be made over and over again by the people that control billions and trillions thus the markets. A grand game approved by the top.

Following the 2009 G20 summit, plans were announced for implementing the creation of a new global currency to replace the US dollar’s role as the world reserve currency. Point 19 of the communiqué released by the G20 at the end of the Summit stated, “We have agreed to support a general SDR allocation which will inject $250bn (£170bn) into the world economy and increase global liquidity.” SDRs, or Special Drawing Rights, are “a synthetic paper currency issued by the International Monetary Fund.” As the Telegraph reported, “the G20 leaders have activated the IMF's power to create money and begin global "quantitative easing". In doing so, they are putting a de facto world currency into play. It is outside the control of any sovereign body. Conspiracy theorists will love it.”[1]


The article continued in stating that, “There is now a world currency in waiting. In time, SDRs are likely to evolve into a parking place for the foreign holdings of central banks, led by the People's Bank of China.” Further, “The creation of a Financial Stability Board looks like the first step towards a global financial regulator,” or, in other words, a global central bank.

Looks like China will own 20% of the new SDR's


China to buy first IMF bonds for 50 billion dollars

By Veronica Smith (AFP) – 1 day ago

WASHINGTON — China has agreed to buy the first International Monetary Fund bonds for about 50 billion dollars, the IMF said Wednesday.

IMF managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn and the deputy governor of the People?s Bank of China, Yi Gang, signed the agreement Wednesday at IMF headquarters in Washington, the multilateral institution said.

Under the agreement, the Chinese central bank "would purchase up to SDR 32 billion (around 50 billion dollars) in IMF notes," it said.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5jTgJWsIAIcE5WSNnXoX6o-Ewo7bw


Sep 3, 2009, 5:52 a.m. EST
DJ Hong Kong Recalls Gold Reserves, Says It Can Store It At Home

Sep 03, 2009 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- By Chris Oliver

MarketWatch

HONG KONG (MarketWatch)--Hong Kong is pulling all its physical gold holdings from depositories in London, transferring it to a newly-built high-security depository at the city's airport, in a move that won praise from local traders Thursday.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/dj-hong-kong-recalls-gold-reserves-says-it-can-store-it-at-home-2009-09-03

China signs up to $50b gas deal

By China correspondent Stephen McDonell for AM

Posted Tue Aug 18, 2009 8:06pm AEST
Updated Wed Aug 19, 2009 10:53am AEST
Shipping out: $50 billion worth of liquefied natural gas will head to China

Shipping out: $50 billion worth of liquefied natural gas will head to China (AAP: Kerry Edwards/Pool/The West Australian)

Relations between China and Australia may be at their lowest point for years on many fronts, but that hasn't stopped the signing of a massive deal last night which is the biggest single investment ever seen in Australia.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/08/18/2659831.htm
 

hypocritexposer

Well-known member
It turns out that there is also “advertising” for gold and silver in China, too. The big difference here is that it is China's government which is advertising the “opportunities” in gold and silver and it is urging the Chinese people to buy gold and silver.



An article from mining web-site, Mineweb quotes a program which appears on China's largest (state-owned) television company, promoting bullion-buying in general, but stressing that silver is currently the best value for investors (no surprise to regular readers):

China has introduced its first ever investment opportunity for silver bullion. The bars are available in 500g, 1kg, 2kg and 5kg with a purity of 99.9%. Figures show that gold was fifty times more expensive in 2007 but now that figure has reached over seventy times. Analysts say that silver has been undervalued in recent years. They add that the metal is the right investment for individual investors and could be a good way to cash in.

It is also clear that China is literally “putting its money where its mouth is.” China has devoted an enormous amount of resources building up its domestic gold mining industry, soaring to #1 in the world this decade, and it recently stunned the world with the announcement of a huge increase in its official, national holdings (see “China now has 5th largest gold reserves”).



China's gold reserves jumped by 76% from its last announcement in 2002 – up to 1,054 tons. Given that official government purchases on the open market are recorded and announced, this means that rather than buying all that gold openly on the market (which would have driven up the price while they were buying) China has been accumulating gold surreptitiously, through buying up its domestic production – strongly suggesting that ramping-up its gold production was part of a long-term strategic plan to become one of the world's largest (if not the largest) holder of gold among governments.



As I have written previously, there appears to be two, related goals in this strategy. Most-obviously, the Chinese government is now spending its U.S. dollar-holdings faster than it is accumulating them. This is no surprise, given the increasing rhetoric (and increasing intensity) expressing concern about the reckless fiscal policies of the U.S. government – and its worries over the future value of its vast accumulation of U.S. dollar-based debt.



The second goal which the Chinese government appears to be moving toward is having its own currency, the renminbi, replace the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency. There have simply been too many actions on this front to list them all, however some of the more significant initiatives are bilateral trade agreements (which exclude the use of the U.S. dollar), currency swaps with its trading partner (which substitute the renminbi in bilateral trade), and authorizing its principal, coastal exporting cities to begin conducting most or all of their trade using renminbi.



These initiatives are entirely separate from the buying-spree the Chinese government has been engaging in, dumping U.S. dollars for a vast assortment of “hard assets” - primarily commodities and commodity-producers.



As I wrote a week ago, in “Gold Wars, Part II: The Empire Strikes Back”, both the move by China to replace the U.S. dollar and its big push to accumulate large gold reserves are clearly an economic threat to the United States. It is only the reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar which has kept its value grossly inflated relative to its actual worth and kept U.S. borrowing costs artificially low.



A plunge by the U.S. dollar to its real value (somewhere not far above zero) would unleash crippling inflation in the U.S. (if not actual hyperinflation), while a rise in borrowing costs would strangle its crippled economy. Given that suppressing the price of gold has been a principle strategy by Western bankers to keep the dollar artificially propped up, China's zeal for gold (and silver) is also strongly against U.S. interests.



Whether the official urging by the Chinese government for its citizens to buy precious metals is merely prudent, “fatherly” advise to its citizens, or part of a somewhat more sinister campaign the result will be the same: soaring precious metals prices indefinitely into the future.



With gold and silver having just broken-out above their summer trading ranges (the weakest season of the year for the precious metals market), precious metals appear poised for spectacular runs this fall, as I suggested a month ago (see “Two short-term scenarios for Gold Market”). Those who have continued waiting for cheaper prices have been shut out of this market (notably the price-conscious buyers in India), and the window for buying at current, bargain prices appears to be closing quickly.

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/407380-jeff-nielson/26063-china-urges-citizens-to-buy-gold-silver
 

hypocritexposer

Well-known member
Thursday, September 3, 2009
CHINA AND THE BUZZ OF A PENDING BANK DEFAULT

Let’s put the pieces together here. Just this past weekend China announced that State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) will be allowed to default on commodity derivative contracts. Think of that. China has given the green light and authorized the defaulting on commodity derivative contracts.

This story broke over the weekend but has not gotten much mainstream media attention on this side of the pond. (North America). The only inference to it was the talk or “buzz” on the Wall Street floor that another bank was rumored to be close to defaulting. As Art Cashin of UBS Securities indicated in the video clip I posted earlier, normally when a market sells off on a rumor and the rumor turns out to be false, the market will tend to correct itself. IT DIDN’T.

The Reuters report cited 6 foreign banks that received letters indicating that the Chinese State Owned Enterprises would be given the green light to default on their derivatives.

A look at what a derivative actually is may be useful here. A Derivative is a financial instrument that is derived from some other underlying asset, index, event, value or condition. Rather than trade or exchange the underlying itself, derivative traders enter into an agreement to exchange cash or assets over time based on the underlying. A simple example is a futures contract: an agreement to exchange the underlying asset at a future date. Commercial and investment banks make up the foundation of the over the counter (OTC) derivatives market. Investors use derivatives to protect against risks, such as sudden changes in price or value of the underlying asset. Others tap derivatives to take on extra risk, in the hope of extra gains.

Well China owns billions of these products and it has finally come to light they have had enough of having the value of their derivatives manipulated by the manipulation of the price of the underlying asset. They have finally woken up to the fact that these derivatives have been bundled together like junk in a manner that resembles the mortgage backed derivatives that brought down the world markets last year.

Back to Reuters. Some of the State Owned Enterprises that stated their potential intentions to default were Air China. China Eastern and Cosco. Mainly in part because they took major derivatives losses over the past year but also, concerns are arising that the derivatives that they were sold by these foreign institutions are garbage, underwater and may never see the light of day. So why continue to pay for them? So the concern in the financial world is that holders of these losing products may just walk away, not unlike a home owner with a $600,000 mortgage on a home valued at $475,000 deciding to just hand in their keys. However, read on...this has nothing to do with morgtgage backed products. This time, the concern may be over Oil.

They (Reuters) cited 6 foreign banks.Where the story gets really intriguing is that among the major derivatives providers according to Reuters but also widely known in the industry, are Goldman Sachs, UBS and JP Morgan.

Here is the looming problem. These products are worth billions. One report that a good friend of mine did showed that if Goldman Sachs for example were to take this one up the rear, they could stand to lose 15 billion dollars. (This number is by no means confirmed)

An important history lesson is needed here. “Potential default” was the concern that sparked and prompted the most recent economic crisis. These intricately weaved products along with highly speculative CDOs and CDSs began to fall apart when the bubble that was in large part significantly contributed to and created by the financial institutions that were packaging this junk started to fall apart.

Imagine the impact for a brief moment if you will, on the impact to the financial landscape if China were to say “we are walking away” from those products. I would imagine that China, being the biggest purchaser of US debt, could surely collapse the US institutions that were at one point deemed too big to fail if they decide to go ahead with this plan.

This is why I don’t take tonight’s news that China purchased 50 billion dollars of IMF bonds lightly. In fact, I take it very seriously. This is why I take the buzz on the floor over the past two days very seriously as well as I do the incredible spike in Gold today. Most importantly, I do not take lightly the recent 25% correction we have seen in the Chinese Stock Market. Can all these events be interconnected some how? Is the Chinese stock collapse giving us a hint?

The Reuters story came out on Mon Aug 31, 2009 at 7:42am EDT. I find it quite interesting that the mainstream media did not take this more seriously. Reuters reported that the above noted Chinese companies have already issued letters to the banks. The Reuters article cites 4 clear points.

• State-owned firms may default on commodity hedges - report

• Bankers dismayed, confused by report; seek more details

• Lawyers question legality of the move

• Traders suspect lurking losses may have prompted warning (Adds analysts comments)

Analysts are fearing that if these three big companies came out and spelled out their losses and dismay at these products then this might prompt other large Chinese corporations to do the same.

Let’s take a closer look at the companies that have been mentioned in these news articles out of China. They are Air China, China Eastern and Cosco. If you ask me, this conundrum might have to do with oil. I deduce from this that if there is a problem brewing it has everything to do with their Oil Derivatives business.

Here’s a brief overview of what might happen should these companies, and others, default. The banks, namely Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and from other accounts possibly Deutsche Bank will find themselves LONG on oil futures with no customers on the short side of the derivatives. This will most likely lead the banks to sell the excess oil futures without a care for the price. This is no different than what happened when Bear Stearns was forced to sell off their gold futures in March of 2008 which then resulted in a sharp downturn in the price of Gold.

Reuters stated:

Spokespersons at Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and UBS (UBSN.VX) declined comment, and media officials at Morgan Stanley (MS.N) and JPMorgan (JPM.N) were not immediately available for comment. All are major global providers of commodity risk management.

We have yet to hear their commentary. A Chinese statesperson was quoted as saying “"If we were among the banks receiving that letter, we would be very angry.” You bet your bottom dollar. You don’t think the firms listed above are angry, or, are they frightened that if the Chinese State Owned entities start taking affirmative action it could theoretically bring down some of the biggest remaining names on Wall Street?

Remember Reuters initial story was titled Beijing's derivative default stance rattles market. Read it thoroughly for more information.

Then, read the story that broke last Saturday to get a clearer perspective before the political and corporate spin started to enter the story. China warns banks on OTC hedge defaults –report.

“BEIJING, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) may unilaterally terminate derivative contracts with six foreign banks that provide over-the-counter commodity hedging services, a leading financial magazine said.

China's SOE regulator, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), had told the financial institutions that SOEs reserved the right to default on contracts, Caijing magazine quoted an unnamed industry source as saying.”

On September 1, 2009 Reuters said that the Banks, not the commodities would be at risk if China followed through.

Yes, legal battles would ensue should this happen and we can also expect to have Chinese political figures downplay the story in an effort to avert panic. However, if they can prove that these derivatives or the underlying asset was manipulated in a manner to profit the bank that issued the product then that may even do more damage than the default themselves.

Perhaps the “buzz” on the floor is indeed true. Perhaps we are going to see action that could annihilate one of the biggest Wall Street firms ever.

If there is one thing I have learned of late is that when the Chinese speak, we must listen. Their list of allies is ever growing and they are simply fed up of having to swallow the US garbage that has turned out to be toxic and dangerous to their highly controlled and coveted state owned enterprises.

I leave you with these thoughts that I alluded to above. The Chinese market has corrected 25%. This news broke this past weekend. New York saw a sharp sell-off on Monday. Buzz of a bank default hit the floor. The rumor did not abate and the selling intensified. The selling carried over into Tuesday. Gold, a classic hedge against troubled times has broken out to the upside, China has purchased 50 billion in IMF bonds and has been questioning the US dollar now for upwards of a year. China was up 5% overnight and Gold has continued to climb this morning.

Where there is smoke there is often fire.

http://thefundamentalview.blogspot.com/2009/09/china-and-buzz-of-pending-bank-default_03.html
 

hypocritexposer

Well-known member
Derivatives contracts in China

Our loss, your problem
Sep 3rd 2009 | HONG KONG
From The Economist print edition


China considers bailing out of costly futures contracts

GIVEN its vast reserves and seemingly healthy economy, a default by China’s government or one of its tentacles should be one of the lesser concerns for international markets. This perception was jolted on August 28th by reports that the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) might endorse a move by large state-controlled enterprises under its umbrella to break derivatives contracts that were purchased last year from international banks to protect them from rising commodity prices.

Details, inevitably, are fuzzy. There is no official comment; terrified international bankers are silent. But reports in the local press and some elaboration by participants suggest that efforts by the country’s large shippers, airlines and power companies to cope with high oil prices by taking out futures contracts produced steep losses as the market reversed and prices fell.

That apparently prompted SASAC to launch an investigation, in part to find out if its wards were engaged in outright speculation, rather than hedging, but also to determine if a bail-out could be arranged. The bluntest remedy would be to break the contracts entirely; another, to force contracts to be rewritten and losses reduced. Either outcome would be costly for the foreign banks, in the short run through lost profits and in the long run because a growing business in derivatives would be badly undermined.

For China, too, the consequences would hurt. Counterparties would presumably charge more in future to offset the risk of being stiffed. There would be legal fallout as well. If the contracts were arranged outside China through subsidiaries in Hong Kong, Singapore or London, which is common, then they were almost certainly done under non-Chinese laws that are unlikely to be sympathetic to deliberate deadbeats. Given the direct ties these companies have to the state, a default could in theory trigger a sovereign credit failure and the legitimate seizure of state-owned assets (though it is a stretch to believe that any bank with interests in China would push a case that far). If the contracts were arranged inside China, the companies might claim to have lacked the authority to have engaged in them, but that would undermine their ability to do business abroad.

One theory is that Beijing is trying to squeeze foreign banks out of the derivatives business. That would accord with rules recently put into effect that restrict the ability of foreign firms to develop derivatives. China, it is said, would like its own banks to gain expertise and, if profits must be made, have them benefit. If so, independent pricing of risk, which is what derivatives are meant to be about, would be the real casualty.
 

MoGal

Well-known member
Here's another link you might find interesting:

sounds to me like a commodities bubble is going to unwind. Note they say US, European and domestic demand is faltering. The MSM over here would have you believe China's domestic demand is booming.

http://www.asianews.it/index.php?l=en&art=16115

Has anybody read anything about China buying up all the copper???
 
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