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Current cattle prices - sustainable?

Are current prices sustainable into next year?

  • Yes

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • No

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Unsure

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    0

Texan

Well-known member
I vote No. I just can't see $900 feeders and $1 COG working out for long. I don't think you can even make that breakeven on paper. And at some point, the consumer will just say no.

What say you?
 

redrobin

Well-known member
I said yes but since you say no, that is conclusive evidence that it's going higher and I'm more comfortable as a market antagonist. :lol:
 

Texan

Well-known member
redrobin said:
I said yes but since you say no, that is conclusive evidence that it's going higher and I'm more comfortable as a market antagonist. :lol:
LOL. I'm comfortable being short your longs.
 

Denny

Well-known member
As long as exports keep up I believe so our weak dollar and other countries taste for something more than rice and beans will drive all sectors of the meat industry.I read where the value of an exported fat is valued at $2.50 a lb live weight. If your a packer and can buy our steers for $1.10 live and sell for $2.50 thats a pretty good ticket.This figure was useing all the values of the animal from meat to offul value. Same article stated that fats will hit $1.25 by June 2011. $3.50 diesel and $6 corn we need these prices just to stay afloat.

Another note as our economy has been in the tank alot of other countries have been doing quite well and have the money to spend. Also we are one of the few countries with Grain Finished beef and others in the world are craveing it. Like it or not a Brazilian company JBS has seen the writeing on the wall they already suppley the grass finished from brazil now they will suppley and market the Grain Finished from North America. The Tide is changeing I think were in for a wild ride.Were poised to be Price makers not Price Takers.Better pull your hat down tight.
 

BlackCattleRancher

Well-known member
Everyone says feeder calves are in short supply but the typical seasonal feeder sales are full as ever with just as many calves.

Amazing how last year at this time there wasn't much enthusiasm to buy calves for feeding and feed was pert near half the cost it is today. Now today, everyone seems to want to feed calves and the margins look slimmer than ever with feed costs going up daily.
 

Trinity man

Well-known member
From everything I see in tracking these prices they have no choice but go up. Our cow numbers are dropping faster than they have in years now, because of the demand for beef in the US. Out of the two sale I report here in East Texas 67% of the 28,859 (19,444) have gone to Slaughter and from other reporters from around the state have been getting around the same number to. Plus with the droughts to south Texas very few cattle have been replace with most of the ranches going to high fences for wild game hunting. We had also have been getting more and more slaughter house from as far away has South Carolina to Minn. buying packer cows and bulls here. The crazy thing is the prices just keep get higher and higher. At one sale in here in Texas had a 2200 lb. bull bring .84 per lb. with cows hitting the .70's range for some of the high yielding cows. If you look at the hog market go to .80-.90 range and corn rising just as fast. The American people will need to really see what is more important to them a swim pool in the back yard or food on the table.


With these prices going the way they are we might need night guard for our cattle and crops. There have already been some stolen cattle reported in the east Texas area because of the prices we are getting. The bad thing is so many ranchers in the east Texas DO NOT BRAND their cattle here. It’s a must if you want to prove they are your cattle. I had one rancher ask me the other day if I seen a black white face heifer sale at any of the barns I report. I said yes about 1000 of them. I ask did she have a brand on her and he said no. I talked to our brand inspector on how many calls do they get like this and he said tons of them. So be aware and count your cattle daily and brand them.
 

Angus 62

Well-known member
It is an export made market which is always a news story away from reversal. Went to a couple of grocery stores the Monday morning after New Years. There wasn't a pound of hamburger to be found but a lot of steaks and roasts left.

The positive thing is in reality beef isn't very high priced compared to other items. Compare lean hamburger to a lot of produce and their isn't much difference. You can buy a chuck roast that will feed a family of four for $7-$8.
 

Lonecowboy

Well-known member
Global food prices have reached a nominal all-time high, surpassing the previous peak seen in 2007-08, when food riots rocked the poorer countries of the world. The consensus is that due to weather, demand and smaller inventories, the prices of the basic food commodities will surge even further. The cost of a barrel of Brent crude oil is approaching $100.00 and some estimates indicate it may hit as much as $120.00. All the futures prices of metals and other commodities vital to manufacturing are also nearing or exceeding all time highs.

The inflation rate in China is approaching double digit levels (annualized basis). In Europe the rate is rapidly exceeding the targets set by the central banks, and in the United States, the Federal Reserve continues to effectively print money while the government goes about its trillion dollar annual deficit spending spree. Since 2008 the U.S. monetary base (basic measure of money circulating in the economy) has increased over 200% from $800 Billion to $2.1 Trillion. This is unprecedented and is one of the underlying causes of inflation but more importantly as the unavoidable inflation picks up in the United States it could well be a catalyst for potential hyper-inflation reminiscent of the 1970's.
 

3words

Well-known member
Prices are still to low,if you compare to how everything else has gone up.I remember selling calves off the cow in the ninty's and getting over $900 for some of the calves,and i know in the nintys things were a LOT cheaper to buy.In 1998 new haybine was $18,000,this year they are $53000.New round baler in 2003 $31000,last year a new baler was $60000.Was gas $5 a gallon,and diesel $3.70 in the ninetys?Not even close.So this year my steers off of the cows averaged me $894 and the heifers averaged $832,did i make anymore money then i did in the ninetys off of my cows?No i lost money,so no calf prices are NOT where they belong,and i'm getting tired of them feeding us all the crumb's!
 

burnt

Well-known member
3words said:
Prices are still to low,if you compare to how everything else has gone up.I remember selling calves off the cow in the ninty's and getting over $900 for some of the calves,and i know in the nintys things were a LOT cheaper to buy.In 1998 new haybine was $18,000,this year they are $53000.New round baler in 2003 $31000,last year a new baler was $60000.Was gas $5 a gallon,and diesel $3.70 in the ninetys?Not even close.So this year my steers off of the cows averaged me $894 and the heifers averaged $832,did i make anymore money then i did in the ninetys off of my cows?No i lost money,so no calf prices are NOT where they belong,and i'm getting tired of them feeding us all the crumb's!

Yup. :agree:
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Denny said:
As long as exports keep up I believe so our weak dollar and other countries taste for something more than rice and beans will drive all sectors of the meat industry.I read where the value of an exported fat is valued at $2.50 a lb live weight. If your a packer and can buy our steers for $1.10 live and sell for $2.50 thats a pretty good ticket.This figure was useing all the values of the animal from meat to offul value. Same article stated that fats will hit $1.25 by June 2011. $3.50 diesel and $6 corn we need these prices just to stay afloat.

Another note as our economy has been in the tank alot of other countries have been doing quite well and have the money to spend. Also we are one of the few countries with Grain Finished beef and others in the world are craveing it. Like it or not a Brazilian company JBS has seen the writeing on the wall they already suppley the grass finished from brazil now they will suppley and market the Grain Finished from North America. The Tide is changeing I think were in for a wild ride.Were poised to be Price makers not Price Takers.Better pull your hat down tight.

I agree- thats what I've been hearing too...
Korea is now in a pickle with FMD- and several other countries are having enviroment problems.... I think the next year will be strong--and I also think that just like the record prices set during the border closure created a new guideline price for cattle/beef-- this will create a new guideline also...
 

redrobin

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
Denny said:
As long as exports keep up I believe so our weak dollar and other countries taste for something more than rice and beans will drive all sectors of the meat industry.I read where the value of an exported fat is valued at $2.50 a lb live weight. If your a packer and can buy our steers for $1.10 live and sell for $2.50 thats a pretty good ticket.This figure was useing all the values of the animal from meat to offul value. Same article stated that fats will hit $1.25 by June 2011. $3.50 diesel and $6 corn we need these prices just to stay afloat.

Another note as our economy has been in the tank alot of other countries have been doing quite well and have the money to spend. Also we are one of the few countries with Grain Finished beef and others in the world are craveing it. Like it or not a Brazilian company JBS has seen the writeing on the wall they already suppley the grass finished from brazil now they will suppley and market the Grain Finished from North America. The Tide is changeing I think were in for a wild ride.Were poised to be Price makers not Price Takers.Better pull your hat down tight.

I agree- thats what I've been hearing too...
Korea is now in a pickle with FMD- and several other countries are having enviroment problems.... I think the next year will be strong--and I also think that just like the record prices set during the border closure created a new guideline price for cattle/beef-- this will create a new guideline also...
The hair in the soup is the very thing you're so fond of. If we happen to have a case of BSE or FMD and our market is based on exports and given the situation where our own population , because of inflation, can't afford any more expense to their grocery budget, prices would plummet.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
redrobin said:
Oldtimer said:
Denny said:
As long as exports keep up I believe so our weak dollar and other countries taste for something more than rice and beans will drive all sectors of the meat industry.I read where the value of an exported fat is valued at $2.50 a lb live weight. If your a packer and can buy our steers for $1.10 live and sell for $2.50 thats a pretty good ticket.This figure was useing all the values of the animal from meat to offul value. Same article stated that fats will hit $1.25 by June 2011. $3.50 diesel and $6 corn we need these prices just to stay afloat.

Another note as our economy has been in the tank alot of other countries have been doing quite well and have the money to spend. Also we are one of the few countries with Grain Finished beef and others in the world are craveing it. Like it or not a Brazilian company JBS has seen the writeing on the wall they already suppley the grass finished from brazil now they will suppley and market the Grain Finished from North America. The Tide is changeing I think were in for a wild ride.Were poised to be Price makers not Price Takers.Better pull your hat down tight.

I agree- thats what I've been hearing too...
Korea is now in a pickle with FMD- and several other countries are having enviroment problems.... I think the next year will be strong--and I also think that just like the record prices set during the border closure created a new guideline price for cattle/beef-- this will create a new guideline also...
The hair in the soup is the very thing you're so fond of. If we happen to have a case of BSE or FMD and our market is based on exports and given the situation where our own population , because of inflation, can't afford any more expense to their grocery budget, prices would plummet.

Yep-- it wouldn't be good...But that may be the reason the OIE and the worlds trade folks are now working to change/changing the rules to allow "regionalization" in quarantines... ex- if FMD were found in southern California- it wouldn't quarantine cattle from all the US- just California or that part of California they could isolate it in....Sounds like the world food shortages- and predicted shortages from all the current enviromental situations are pushing it....

I saw an article the other day- where some of the Koreans are accusing their government of "causing" their FMD problem- and a beef shortage- just so they could get the FTA thru with the US, which has been holding out because they couldn't resolve the beef issue... :???:
 

allen57

Well-known member
Put me in the colume of "they better be". If the current price isn't the "new bottom" My piddling herd will be sombody elses.
 

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