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Some reports claim President Barack Obama greatly improved his standing among Cuban-Americans and won their vote in Florida’s Miami-Dade County in the recent election.
But a new analysis shows that Mitt Romney actually won that vote — by a hefty 16 percentage points.
Obama won just 36 percent of the Cuban-American vote in Miami-Dade in 2008. This year, Obama campaign officials claimed that Romney’s pick of Paul Ryan as his running mate would hurt the GOP ticket among those voters, citing his past support for lifting sanctions against the Cuban dictatorship.
“While Congressman Ryan’s position on Cuba policy had evolved years before the election, it certainly created suspicion among some Cuban-American voters,” said Mauricio Claver-Carone, executive director of Cuba Democracy Public Advocacy.
“The Obama campaign took full advantage of the opening created by the Ryan pick.”
Obama won Miami-Dade County in 2012 by 68,884 more votes than in 2008, according to Claver-Carone.
The Obama campaign and several exit polls (Fox News and Pew) claimed that he improved his showing in Miami-Dade by winning the Cuban-American vote by a margin of 49 percent to 47 percent.
Bendixen & Amandi International, a Democratic polling firm that has worked for Obama, found that Obama had won among those voters by 52 percent to 48 percent.
However, Claver-Carone’s organization analyzed the vote in large Cuban precincts in Miami-Dade County and found that Romney actually won the Cuban-American vote there by a margin of 58 percent to 42 percent.
More than 50,000 absentee ballots submitted by Cuban-Americans in the county over age 60 were not captured by Fox News and Pew exit polling.
This demographic, Claver-Carone points out, is traditionally the most Republican demographic in Miami-Dade.
The conclusion: There was a significant reduction in Cuban-American support for the Republican candidate, but not as dramatic as the exit polls found.
Some reports claim President Barack Obama greatly improved his standing among Cuban-Americans and won their vote in Florida’s Miami-Dade County in the recent election.
But a new analysis shows that Mitt Romney actually won that vote — by a hefty 16 percentage points.
Obama won just 36 percent of the Cuban-American vote in Miami-Dade in 2008. This year, Obama campaign officials claimed that Romney’s pick of Paul Ryan as his running mate would hurt the GOP ticket among those voters, citing his past support for lifting sanctions against the Cuban dictatorship.
“While Congressman Ryan’s position on Cuba policy had evolved years before the election, it certainly created suspicion among some Cuban-American voters,” said Mauricio Claver-Carone, executive director of Cuba Democracy Public Advocacy.
“The Obama campaign took full advantage of the opening created by the Ryan pick.”
Obama won Miami-Dade County in 2012 by 68,884 more votes than in 2008, according to Claver-Carone.
The Obama campaign and several exit polls (Fox News and Pew) claimed that he improved his showing in Miami-Dade by winning the Cuban-American vote by a margin of 49 percent to 47 percent.
Bendixen & Amandi International, a Democratic polling firm that has worked for Obama, found that Obama had won among those voters by 52 percent to 48 percent.
However, Claver-Carone’s organization analyzed the vote in large Cuban precincts in Miami-Dade County and found that Romney actually won the Cuban-American vote there by a margin of 58 percent to 42 percent.
More than 50,000 absentee ballots submitted by Cuban-Americans in the county over age 60 were not captured by Fox News and Pew exit polling.
This demographic, Claver-Carone points out, is traditionally the most Republican demographic in Miami-Dade.
The conclusion: There was a significant reduction in Cuban-American support for the Republican candidate, but not as dramatic as the exit polls found.