Monday morning polling shows Obama on shaky ground
Published by: Robert Laurie on Monday October 1st, 2012
By ROBERT LAURIE - Statistical tie favors Romney as debates loom
Yesterday, during an appearance on Meet the Press, senior White House advisor David Plouffe had this to say:
"There's gonna be ups or downs. We know the media is anxious to write the Romney recovery and comeback story. We understand that, first of all, we're not going to win battleground states by 10 or 12 points. This race is gonna tighten. We built the presidential campaign with the belief that it's gonna come down to a few votes in a few states. So this race is gonna tighten. We do have an edge right now in a lot of battleground states."
We'll forgo the usual carping about how anyone who thinks the media is excited to write a "Romney comeback story" is clearly short a few marbles. Instead, we'll just - and yes it hurts to say this - agree with Plouffe. Obama does have a slight edge at the moment, and he's right. Races usually tighten as we get closer to Election Day.
The problem faced by Plouffe and his left-wing pals is just how narrow their "edge" really is. This morning, two new polls were released that illustrate this.
First up, is a Washington Post-ABC News poll which affords Obama only a two point lead nationally - 49% Obama, 47% Romney. The poll's margin of error is 3.5%
Next is the POLITICO/George Washington University poll, which shows the same 2 point spread, again, 49% to 47%. This is one point narrower than it was a week ago and within the 3.1% margin of error.
Both of these polls come on the heels of a Rasmussen poll Sunday, which showed the same two point gap, but included one interesting metric not found elsewhere. According to the Rasmussen numbers, a full 15% are open to changing their minds before Election Day.
So, if Plouffe is right, things are going to tighten from a two point Obama lead, which is already within the margin of error, and 15% of the electorate is still convincible. If you're the President, these numbers must make you very, very, nervous.
Obama is now on extremely shaky ground. His advisors are telling him the race is about to get tougher, he can’t tout his record, and he's heading into a series of debates where he'll face an unfamiliar level of challenge and public scrutiny.
A strong Romney performance in the first debate could place him in the lead. If he can do well in all three, and Ryan follows suit, Obama will be hard-pressed to eke out the win.