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Don't Expect Beef Prices To Zoom

Mike

Well-known member
US cattle prices not expected to increase

Thursday, 29/06/2006

US Agriculture Department officials say it will take years to recover from Japan's mad cow-related ban on beef and producers there should not expect to see massive price rises.

US Agriculture Department livestock analyst Ron Gustafson says Japan's expected reopening of its market to US beef after it completes audits of US plants next month, will not bring a huge upswing in US cattle prices.

Mr Gustafson says it will take years to sell pre-mad cow amounts of US beef to Japan, which only buys certain cuts anyway.

"We don't sell whole carcasses to the Japanese or South Koreans, or anyone ... we sell cuts that, largely, we don't have the large demand for here in the US - short ribs, plates and so-forth - the fattier items," he said.

Beef trade is likely to come up in meetings in the US this week between President George W Bush and Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, since Japan has not yet set a specific date to resume imports.


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Sandhusker...........Isn't this contrary to what we have been told? :wink:
 
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Anonymous

Guest
Mike said:
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Sandhusker...........Isn't this contrary to what we have been told? :wink:

These USDA guys must be wrong- you know Agman would never purposely tell you a falsehood- or try to lead you astray by spouting the Packertalk...He and our missing buddy SuperHero deal only in FACTS :wink: :roll: :lol: :lol:

But still the USDA will not allow Creekstone to give the Japanese what they want- tested Beef.....
 

Sandhusker

Well-known member
Are you referring to this gem, "They want U.S beef and they will scramble to buy it as soon as it it made available."? Wonder which Fed. Economist provided that? :lol: :lol:

It's 100 here right now. About 30 degrees hotter than it needs to be.
 

Econ101

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
Mike said:
--------------------------------------------------

Sandhusker...........Isn't this contrary to what we have been told? :wink:

These USDA guys must be wrong- you know Agman would never purposely tell you a falsehood- or try to lead you astray by spouting the Packertalk...He and our missing buddy SuperHero deal only in FACTS :wink: :roll: :lol: :lol:

But still the USDA will not allow Creekstone to give the Japanese what they want- tested Beef.....

No one is allowed to exceed USDA's food safety program!!!!
 

agman

Well-known member
Sandhusker said:
Are you referring to this gem, "They want U.S beef and they will scramble to buy it as soon as it it made available."? Wonder which Fed. Economist provided that? :lol: :lol:

It's 100 here right now. About 30 degrees hotter than it needs to be.

How have you proven that statement wrong Sanhusker? I want to hear this one.

You must be upset that you are a junior loan officer at a small bank since you want to criticize Fed research which you have never seen nor have you ever presented any valid research on your own to refute their findings. Do you really believe you are more knowledgeable than the Economists that work for the Fed per the subjects I have referenced? You either are or you are not; which is it?
 

agman

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
Mike said:
--------------------------------------------------

Sandhusker...........Isn't this contrary to what we have been told? :wink:

These USDA guys must be wrong- you know Agman would never purposely tell you a falsehood- or try to lead you astray by spouting the Packertalk...He and our missing buddy SuperHero deal only in FACTS :wink: :roll: :lol: :lol:

But still the USDA will not allow Creekstone to give the Japanese what they want- tested Beef.....

What is the packer talk you allude to OT-another assumption you cannot back up. Creekstone wants to test but there is no evidence that the Japanese government demanded tested beef.

Some day you may realize this issue is all political and has little if anything to do with food safety. Have they demanded tested beef from Canada? They are taking untested Canadian beef in case you don't know. They will do the same with U.S. beef.

BTW, do you want some odds on the latest R-Calf lawsuit against Canada. What are your knowledgeable legal advisor's telling you or are you advising them?! That case is toast.
 

Sandhusker

Well-known member
agman said:
Sandhusker said:
Are you referring to this gem, "They want U.S beef and they will scramble to buy it as soon as it it made available."? Wonder which Fed. Economist provided that? :lol: :lol:

It's 100 here right now. About 30 degrees hotter than it needs to be.

How have you proven that statement wrong Sanhusker? I want to hear this one.

You must be upset that you are a junior loan officer at a small bank since you want to criticize Fed research which you have never seen nor have you ever presented any valid research on your own to refute their findings. Do you really believe you are more knowledgeable than the Economists that work for the Fed per the subjects I have referenced? You either are or you are not; which is it?

Guess we'll just wait and see if you're proven wrong or not, Agman, won't we? Don't worry, I'm not about to forget your quote.

I'm not upset about my position in the least. I'm doing what I want where I want. My kids are being raised in a safe environment surrounded by family and friends. I have plenty of wagon room. I drove 25 miles this morning and saw twice as many antelope as cars. That is worth something to me. It may come as a shocker to a sell-your-soul for a buck individual such as yourself, but I actually took a pretty severe pay cut to come back here. Soooo, you can kindly take your arrogant self-serving put-down and pack sand.

Contrary to you, I don't beleive everything an economist tells me, Fed. or otherwise. One once told me the reason God made economists was to make weather men look good. I've been in the financial business for running on 15 years and I've learned to take everything an economist says with a healthy pinch of salt. Wasn't it a Fed economist who predicted it would take 10 years for Brazil's poultry market to grow 25%, when it has done that the last two years already? Who told you Japan had no protocol? See what I mean?
 

Red Barn Angus

Well-known member
Excellent post Sandhusker, just excellent. You have truly found what is really important in life and made the necessary sacrifices to attain it. You are to be commended.

Reminds me of the old story that if you put all the economists in the world end to end they still couldn't reach a consensus.
 
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Anonymous

Guest
Some day you may realize this issue is all political and has little if anything to do with food safety. Have they demanded tested beef from Canada? They are taking untested Canadian beef in case you don't know. They will do the same with U.S. beef.

I will agree that a big part of this is political- the current US administration is not only untrusted around the world, but to an extent in their own country-- on the other hand it isn't all politics causing 70+% of Japanese to say they don't want US beef...USDA has mishandled BSE from day one, and thru many boondoggles have lost confidence and trust more than even the rest of the administration...This is the reason I believe it will take steps above the norm to regain outside markets- like allowing Creekstone and others to provide tested beef....

Japan is taking untested Canadian beef- but not much......Few more of these positive cows and they will be less........
 

agman

Well-known member
Sandhusker said:
agman said:
Sandhusker said:
Are you referring to this gem, "They want U.S beef and they will scramble to buy it as soon as it it made available."? Wonder which Fed. Economist provided that? :lol: :lol:

It's 100 here right now. About 30 degrees hotter than it needs to be.

How have you proven that statement wrong Sanhusker? I want to hear this one.

You must be upset that you are a junior loan officer at a small bank since you want to criticize Fed research which you have never seen nor have you ever presented any valid research on your own to refute their findings. Do you really believe you are more knowledgeable than the Economists that work for the Fed per the subjects I have referenced? You either are or you are not; which is it?

Guess we'll just wait and see if you're proven wrong or not, Agman, won't we? Don't worry, I'm not about to forget your quote.

I'm not upset about my position in the least. I'm doing what I want where I want. My kids are being raised in a safe environment surrounded by family and friends. I have plenty of wagon room. I drove 25 miles this morning and saw twice as many antelope as cars. That is worth something to me. It may come as a shocker to a sell-your-soul for a buck individual such as yourself, but I actually took a pretty severe pay cut to come back here. Soooo, you can kindly take your arrogant self-serving put-down and pack sand.

Contrary to you, I don't beleive everything an economist tells me, Fed. or otherwise. One once told me the reason God made economists was to make weather men look good. I've been in the financial business for running on 15 years and I've learned to take everything an economist says with a healthy pinch of salt. Wasn't it a Fed economist who predicted it would take 10 years for Brazil's poultry market to grow 25%, when it
has done that the last two years already? Who told you Japan had no protocol? See what I mean?

Yes, you can match your knowledge with that of Fed economists who are involved in research everyday. I will bet on them.

Japan is only developing a refined protocol now. they never issued a protocol for imports that insisted on BSE tested beef.

The estimates on chicken production were produced by a group of leading Ag economist not associated with the Fed. I am certain you would lose a debate with any of them. In case you have not noticed two years does not make a trend. Brazilian broiler production is being cut 25% at the present time. Maybe those economists know alot more than you do.

I can appreciate you being in Valentine. It is a great place with many great people. Your location is not the issue. It is your lack of knowledge of the TOTAL beef industry that is the issue.
 

Sandhusker

Well-known member
Agman, "Japan is only developing a refined protocol now. they never issued a protocol for imports that insisted on BSE tested beef."

The point I was making on protocol is you were throwing up a strawman to BS us. Yes, they didn't have a protocol, but they also didn't have one for accepting 20 month beef either. It doesn't take much to create a protocol as we've seen them just do. You were letting on that it was a huge road block.

Agman, "The estimates on chicken production were produced by a group of leading Ag economist not associated with the Fed. I am certain you would lose a debate with any of them. In case you have not noticed two years does not make a trend."

Fine, 10 years does make a trend. What was that trend?

Agman, "I can appreciate you being in Valentine. It is a great place with many great people. Your location is not the issue. It is your lack of knowledge of the TOTAL beef industry that is the issue."

My issue with you is your habitual attempts to BS with frequent use of strawmen while claiming superior contacts - generally in defense of producers getting the shaft. The way I see it, if you are so well connected, you would have no need to BS or use strawmen in your debates. You and I are on opposite sides of the fence. I'm for the success of producers, you're for the success of big business even if it is at the expense of producers. Your lumber analogy confirms this, so I would appreaciate no more BS trying to tell us otherwise.

I can see where the TOTAL beef industry is going, and it's not going in the direction of benefitting my customers or community.
 

agman

Well-known member
Sandhusker said:
Agman, "Japan is only developing a refined protocol now. they never issued a protocol for imports that insisted on BSE tested beef."

The point I was making on protocol is you were throwing up a strawman to BS us. Yes, they didn't have a protocol, but they also didn't have one for accepting 20 month beef either. It doesn't take much to create a protocol as we've seen them just do. You were letting on that it was a huge road block.

Agman, "The estimates on chicken production were produced by a group of leading Ag economist not associated with the Fed. I am certain you would lose a debate with any of them. In case you have not noticed two years does not make a trend."

Fine, 10 years does make a trend. What was that trend?

Agman, "I can appreciate you being in Valentine. It is a great place with many great people. Your location is not the issue. It is your lack of knowledge of the TOTAL beef industry that is the issue."

My issue with you is your habitual attempts to BS with frequent use of strawmen while claiming superior contacts - generally in defense of producers getting the shaft. The way I see it, if you are so well connected, you would have no need to BS or use strawmen in your debates. You and I are on opposite sides of the fence. I'm for the success of producers, you're for the success of big business even if it is at the expense of producers. Your lumber analogy confirms this, so I would appreaciate no more BS trying to tell us otherwise.

I can see where the TOTAL beef industry is going, and it's not going in the direction of benefitting my customers or community.

Why did they develop a protocol for under 20 months and not BSE testing if testing was an absolute requirement.? CHECKMATE

It is precisely because of your limited knowledge of the industry that you don't know where it is heading. Producers a hell of alot smarter than you or I are at the forefront and the likes of blamers such as you and R-Calf will not turn the industry back in time.

If you knew a much as you think you know about the industry you would know the misinformation R-Calf spews. Instead, your lack of that knowledge has you following them.

If you think I BS then point out the discrepancies if you wish. One is not BS ing or bragging if he can back it up. If my lumber analogy of the benefits of trade was over your head than admit to it. Don't try to hide behind an accurate explanation on my part.
 

Econ101

Well-known member
Agman:
Why did they develop a protocol for under 20 months and not BSE testing if testing was an absolute requirement.? CHECKMATE

It is precisely because of your limited knowledge of the industry that you don't know where it is heading. Producers a hell of alot smarter than you or I are at the forefront and the likes of blamers such as you and R-Calf will not turn the industry back in time.

If you knew a much as you think you know about the industry you would know the misinformation R-Calf spews. Instead, your lack of that knowledge has you following them.

If you think I BS then point out the discrepancies if you wish. One is not BS ing or bragging if he can back it up. If my lumber analogy of the benefits of trade was over your head than admit to it. Don't try to hide behind an accurate explanation on my part.


Here is a question or two for you, agman:

Are you a producer?

Did the data pass the "hauseman" MIT tyson expert witness test for causality, Agman? Please let us see the math and the actual computations. Did Hauseman prove with his little "test" that the factors were not casual, both within the limits of the data and in the broader scope? Was this presented at trial? Where is the analysis, agman? Why can't we see it? Scared of the "truth"?

I want to know how the Demand Determinates by Schroeder fit within Hauseman's "test" Agman. You seemed to have claimed some input in that paper by Schroeder. Was that "test" performed? Does the limits of the data have any affect on the validity of the "hauseman tests for causality?"

If you can not answer these simple questions, agman, we will all know who is the one who is lying and decieving.
 

Sandhusker

Well-known member
Agman, "Why did they develop a protocol for under 20 months and not BSE testing if testing was an absolute requirement.? CHECKMATE "

And yet another strawman! Not having a protocol wasn't much of a problem, was it? What was your purpose of bringing up lack of protocol in the first place?

Agman, "It is precisely because of your limited knowledge of the industry that you don't know where it is heading. Producers a hell of alot smarter than you or I are at the forefront and the likes of blamers such as you and R-Calf will not turn the industry back in time."

Why don't you tell us where the industry is heading, Agman? Explain where the role of the US producer is going.

Agman, "If you think I BS then point out the discrepancies if you wish. One is not BS ing or bragging if he can back it up. If my lumber analogy of the benefits of trade was over your head than admit to it. Don't try to hide behind an accurate explanation on my part."

Let's talk about your lumber analogy. For those that don't remember, Agman used lumber in place of beef to explain the benefits of international trade. He explained how WE benefit when WE can buy cheaper trees abroad instead of locally to make lumber and make more money. He then said that WE can make even more money by turning that lumber derived of foreign trees into boards. Now, Agman, please bring this back to the beef industry and tell me who "WE" are and who the local tree seller is and what is going to happen to them.
 

agman

Well-known member
Sandhusker said:
Agman, "Why did they develop a protocol for under 20 months and not BSE testing if testing was an absolute requirement.? CHECKMATE "

And yet another strawman! Not having a protocol wasn't much of a problem, was it? What was your purpose of bringing up lack of protocol in the first place?

Agman, "It is precisely because of your limited knowledge of the industry that you don't know where it is heading. Producers a hell of alot smarter than you or I are at the forefront and the likes of blamers such as you and R-Calf will not turn the industry back in time."

Why don't you tell us where the industry is heading, Agman? Explain where the role of the US producer is going.

Agman, "If you think I BS then point out the discrepancies if you wish. One is not BS ing or bragging if he can back it up. If my lumber analogy of the benefits of trade was over your head than admit to it. Don't try to hide behind an accurate explanation on my part."

Let's talk about your lumber analogy. For those that don't remember, Agman used lumber in place of beef to explain the benefits of international trade. He explained how WE benefit when WE can buy cheaper trees abroad instead of locally to make lumber and make more money. He then said that WE can make even more money by turning that lumber derived of foreign trees into boards. Now, Agman, please bring this back to the beef industry and tell me who "WE" are and who the local tree seller is and what is going to happen to them.

Without a defined protocol all other comments are pure rhetoric.

First of all your explanation of the lumber analogy is quite deficient. What I addressed was the benefit of trade and specialization. That is precisely why trade works to the benefit of the parties. Obviously that is over you head.

Regarding imports from Canada.... We had a net benefit by importing the raw material, cattle, and adding value to the product in processed form and exporting that valued added product. This is not even a debatable issue. The facts overwhelming support that conclusion.

This industry is headed toward more vertical cooperation. You, yours and all the associated BS from you will not derail the process. Vertical coopeartion benefits those producers who are willing to provide a superior product that adds value to the finished product. The benefits may not be derived in more quantity being sold initially but generating more value for that which is sold. I believe ultimately both quantity and the derived value will gain as the quality bar is not a constant. It will continue to raise creating more value for consumers. "Value" is what consumers seek in every purchasing decision they make. The real opportunity for broad producer participation is that "value" means many different things to many different people. That creates many opportunities for market segmentation which broadens the base for producer participation and producer benefit. It is not very complicated once you get beyond the conspiracy theories and blame game.

I can readily understand why your customers who listen to your skewed view of the beef industry may not benefit. Fortunately there are many more who recognize the positive change and are willing to participate and are getting paid handsomely for that. That group is in the majority and getting bigger everyday. That is a good thing for the beef industry. Your thinking is an impediment to progress but fortunately fewer producers each day take your approach and demagoguery seriously.
 

Sandhusker

Well-known member
"Verticle cooperation". Verticle cooperation. :shock: Interesting wording there, Agman. Verticle integration made independent chicken and hog producers virtually extinct, so now it's called "cooperation". You almost got that one by me. Doesn't stir up the same feelings that "indegration" does. After all "cooperation" has such a friendly conotation, doesn't it? It even sounds fun and give you a warm fuzzy. "Lets all cooperate". I remember hearing that on Sesame Street when I was a youngster. So now it's called "verticle cooperation". Seems to me the same as "ethnic cleansing". Didn't Hitler say he was going to "resettle" the Jews? "Verticle cooperation" my arse. You reveal yourself again. Are your AMI dues current?

I asked you a question that you avoided. Here it is again; Now, Agman, please bring this back to the beef industry and tell me who "WE" are and who the local tree seller is and what is going to happen to them.
 
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