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Economy- New Poll

Do You think the US Economy is Heading into or in a Recession--or a Depression?

  • No-the Economy is doing Fine

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Yes- a mild short Recession

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Yes- a prolonged Recession/Depression

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Economic Collapse

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    0
A

Anonymous

Guest
The poll I started back in Nov came up with 61% thinking the economy was in for a prolonged Recession/Depression or Economic Collapse-with the most (36%) feeling it will be a prolonged Recession/Depression-what are the feelings today....

Do You think the US Economy is Heading into or in a Recession--or a Depression?
No-the Economy is doing Fine
25% [ 13 ]
Yes- a mild short Recession
13% [ 7 ]
Yes- a prolonged Recession/Depression
36% [ 19 ]
Economic Collapse
25% [ 13 ]

Total Votes : 52

In macroeconomics, a Recession is a decline in any country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), or negative real economic growth, for two or more successive quarters of a year. However, this definition is not universally accepted. The American National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession more ambiguously as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months." A recession may involve simultaneous declines in coincident measures of overall economic activity such as employment, investment, and corporate profits. Recessions may be associated with falling prices (deflation), or, alternatively, sharply rising prices (inflation) in a process known as stagflation. A severe or long recession is referred to as an economic depression. A devastating breakdown of an economy is called economic collapse. Newspaper columnist Sidney J. Harris amusingly distinguished terms this way: a recession is when you lose your job; a depression is when I lose mine.
 

MoGal

Well-known member
Actually here's the solution to our problem, but until enough people wake up and pressure their congressional leaders into action they'll probably push the North American Union down our throat............

what one of the comments on Mish today and I agree:

The national debt is a myth. All this country (USA) would have to do to save us all would be to abolish the Fed, nationalize the treasury markets and use United States Notes. If inflation were a problem, just raise taxes in inflation prone sectors and spend the money in depressed sectors. If deflation or weak demand were a problem, just spend the "fiat" United States Notes on projects to build the infrastructure of the nation. No debt involved. The fact that the government pays "interest" on treasury bonds shows us who is running the show, namely the "bankers". Money is a concept. What gives cash "value"?...it's the fact that it is the only means to pay for your taxes. Although commodities have inherent "value", you still cannot eat a gold coin any more than you can a dollar bill. Right now we are seeing the destruction of billions of "on paper dollars". When the credit system stops functioning, liquidity or cash is king.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Rasmussen Consumer Index
58% of Adults Say U.S. Economy is in Recession
Sunday, March 16, 2008

The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures consumer confidence on a daily basis, held relatively steady at 76.5 on Sunday. The Index, which had never fallen below 80 a single time in its seven year history, has been below 80.0 for eleven days so far this month. Today's reading is up nearly three points from last week, but down eight points from last month and down twenty-three points from the beginning of this year.

Nationally, 58% of adults believe the U.S. economy is currently in a recession, while just 22% disagree. Men are slightly more pessimistic when it comes to the state of the U.S. economy. Sixty-one percent (61%) of men feel the economy is currently in a recession, 26% disagree. That's compared to 56% of women who think the economy is in recession and 19% who disagree. Meanwhile, 65% of Democrats feel the economy is in a recession, while just 48% of Republicans feel the same way.

The Rasmussen Investor Index fell for the third day in a row on Sunday to 85.9. That's down a little over three points from week ago, down sixteen points from a month ago and is twenty-seven points lower than its reading at the beginning of the year.

Among investors, 59% say the U.S. economy is currently in a recession, while 27% feel it is not.
 

Steve

Well-known member
MoGal
If inflation were a problem, just raise taxes in inflation prone sectors and spend the money in depressed sectors.

how would raising taxes help in inflation?

if a gallon of milk went to $6.00 how would increasing a tax on it to say $10% help?

increasing costs,.. (taxes are a cost or expense) increases inflation..
 

Steve

Well-known member
calling for a prolonged recession is a self fulfilling prophecy..

if you want to see misery, and be miserable you can easily find doom and gloom..

If Americans looked at the low dollar as an opportunity to export more, the dollar held by foreigners used to buy our exports would in turn force the dollar value to slowly gain strength, the added benefit would be our trade imbalance shifting in our favor..

today is a great day to sell our products over-seas.. and exporting our products is great for creating American jobs..

I am not affected by the housing crunch.. and I would be willing to say that most every one on here is not effected by it either..

My house is worth just as much as I want it to be worth.. because it is my home.. not an investment in a market, but an investment in my family... for my family...
 

Steve

Well-known member
Had I noticed your poll earlier, I would have been able to convince a few of those who only read your gloomy outlook that it is not as bad as you think it is..



Wheat prices climbed in to record-high territory at $10 per bu. earlier this week as the USDA increased its oldcrop export demand forecast,

However, U.S. ethanol plant capacity utilization dropped another 1.7% to 101.8% during July, a similar drop to June, as ethanol prices began an early seasonal decline.

Wheat prices are high.. ethanol prices (and demands are slowing thus corn demand will be down slightly).. isn't that good news?

Every poll is biased, you led your poll out with only bad biased news... not giving any weight, nor time to any good news..

if even one person wanted to now amend their vote, it would show that your poll was biased,..


any one want to change their vote?
 

cutterone

Well-known member
Your house, just like anything else you have is only worth...
1. what you believe it's worth
2. what someone will give you or the market thinks it's worth

I hate to tell you but it's probably worth a lot less than you think, what it was worth a year ago, and what it means to you.
 

Steve

Well-known member
Cutterone
cutterone said:
Your house, just like anything else you have is only worth...
1. what you believe it's worth
2. what someone will give you or the market thinks it's worth

I hate to tell you but it's probably worth a lot less than you think, what it was worth a year ago, and what it means to you.
AS for cash value.. it is worth alot more then what I paid for it.. I have more equity in it then when I paid for it...I have no plans on selling it at any amount.. and if I came across extra cash. and owed anything on it.. I would now take the time to pay down that mortgage.. instead I might take the time now to fix up a few buildings..

Cutterone
I hate to tell you but it's probably worth a lot less than you think, what it was worth a year ago, and what it means to you.
NO, I looked around and my home seems pretty valuable to me.. and that means more then any amount of money..

Like I said, my home was not bought as an investment, it was bought to provide a home for myself and my Family.. and it does that well.. :wink:
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Steve said:
Had I noticed your poll earlier, I would have been able to convince a few of those who only read your gloomy outlook that it is not as bad as you think it is..



Wheat prices climbed in to record-high territory at $10 per bu. earlier this week as the USDA increased its oldcrop export demand forecast,

However, U.S. ethanol plant capacity utilization dropped another 1.7% to 101.8% during July, a similar drop to June, as ethanol prices began an early seasonal decline.

Wheat prices are high.. ethanol prices (and demands are slowing thus corn demand will be down slightly).. isn't that good news?

$5 Fuel- Fertilizer almost unaffordable- the dollar buying less and less daily...The Ag economists are now saying by fall that with the devalution of the dollar- and the inflation of prices even $15 wheat will bring in less income than what $4 wheat would a couple years ago :shock: And some wheat farmers are still locked into long term contracts at $5-6 bushel...

Apparently you didn't also figure in all the hay and barley land- that this year is being seeded to wheat- which will raise cattle production costs- lower cattle prices...Hay was running well over $100 ton in southern Montana a month ago already... Cattle prices across the board (except killer cows) is running below last year in a deflated dollar that lowers the value another 10%...


Every poll is biased, you led your poll out with only bad biased news... not giving any weight, nor time to any good news..

Tell me all the good news again-- many of the economists are talking 1930's recession/depression now...

"After days of denials that it had liquidity problems, Bear was forced into a JPMorgan-led, government-backed bailout on Friday. The arrangement, the first of its kind since the 1930s, resulted in Bear getting a 28-day loan from JPMorgan with the government's guarantee{who is the government??} that JPMorgan would not suffer any losses on the deal."

Have you talked to your banker about your operating loan lately-- money is tighter than a cats arse......

if even one person wanted to now amend their vote, it would show that your poll was biased,..


any one want to change their vote?
 

Steve

Well-known member
OldTimer
Have you talked to your banker about your operating loan lately-- money is tighter than a cats arse......

well OT you either complain about lax lending or you complain about money being tight..... which bothers you more?..

I just increased my credit line.. the rate was good.. just over 5%,.

and I have 90 days to lock.. so with the fed talking of dropping another half point.. I'll be okey...

BTW we are not at $5 fuel ... it is closer to $3 then five.. $5..
 

Steve

Well-known member
OldTimer
Apparently you didn't also figure in all the hay and barley land- that this year is being seeded to wheat-

The price of wheat has more than tripled on international markets since last summer.

Mr Mubarak has ordered the government to use some foreign reserves to buy additional wheat from the international market,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7300899.stm

It could be looked at either way. but for several years you have been complaining about the trade deficit, and lack of export markets.. now we have an opportunity to build export markets and narrow the trade gap,,

Wheat prices will stabilize and bring the dollar up.. unless their buying American wheat with lead based chinese toy money..
:roll: :wink:

as the dollar slowly recovers, oil prices will lower.. and fast..
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Steve said:
OldTimer
Have you talked to your banker about your operating loan lately-- money is tighter than a cats arse......

well oT you either complain about lax lending or you complain about money being tight..... which bothers you more?..

I just increased my credit line.. the rate was good.. just over 5%,.

and I have 90 days to lock.. so with the fed talking of dropping another half point.. I'll be okey...

BTW we are not at $5 fuel ... it is closer to $3 then five.. $5..

Not complaining- as I don't have to rely on operating notes anymore--but it sure has been tight for many that may go under if they can't get the funding to stock- and produce...Which will just keep the domino fall going.....

Diesel Fuel is right at $4 dollars here the other day- some areas of the country as high as $4.20- with the predictions it will be over $5 by the summer.....Oh thats right-you and your "der Furhrer" don't follow fuel prices... :wink: :lol: :p

Gas, Diesel Rocket to Record Highs
By JOHN WILEN – 2 days ago

NEW YORK (AP) — The rally in energy prices gained momentum Friday, with retail gas prices rising further into record territory and diesel and heating oil futures setting records of their own amid concerns about strong global demand and tight supplies.

Crude oil prices fell modestly as a sharp downturn in the stock market and worries about the economy prompted some profit-taking. But with the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates again next week, analysts expect the dollar to weaken further, propelling crude to new records.

At the pump, gas prices set records for the fourth straight day, rising 1.3 cents Friday to a national average price of $3.28 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Average prices are nearing $4 in some parts of Hawaii.

Diesel, meanwhile, rose 2.9 cents to a new record national average of $3.938 a gallon. Heating oil, a fellow distillate and close cousin of diesel, jumped to new records on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Apparently our Stock Market investors didn't buy this as much of a fix either-- as of noon the Dow is down 155 and the NASDAQ and S&P funds are down 2 1/2% :shock: ...

Continued road to economic implosion-will just lead to more inflation, more deflation of the dollars value now-Too little actions, way too late- but you can't expect much more from a President that can't even say the "r" word- or never heard predictions of $5 gas :roll: :wink: :( :( :mad:

Fed Makes Rare Weekend Cut From Emergency Lending Rate

MoneyNews
Monday, March 17, 2008


WASHINGTON -- Worry about the damage a growing credit crisis is inflicting on an ailing U.S. economy led the Federal Reserve to make a rare weekend move, lowering a key lending rate before Wall Street opened Monday.

The central bank approved a cut in its emergency lending rate to financial institutions to 3.25 percent from 3.50 percent, effective immediately, and created a lending facility for big investment banks to secure short-term loans. The new lending facility will be available to Wall Street firms on Monday.

"These steps will provide financial institutions with greater assurance of access to funds," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told reporters in a brief conference call Sunday evening.

The Fed acted just after JPMorgan Chase & Co. agreed to buy rival Bear Stearns Cos. for $236.2 million in a deal that represents a stunning collapse for one of the world's largest and most venerable investment banks. Just on Friday the Fed had raced to provide emergency financing to cash-strapped Bear Stearns through JPMorgan. Days earlier the Fed announced a set of other unconventional steps to thaw out a credit market in danger of freezing shut.

"It seems as if Bernanke & Co. are pulling out all the stops to avoid a serious financial market meltdown,"
Richard Yamarone, an economist at Argus Research, said Sunday evening.


However on world financial markets, Asian stocks plunged Monday after the JPMorgan and Fed announcements. Markets in Australia and New Zealand were also off and European stocks fell in early trading.

Oil prices hit a record in Asian trading as the value of the dollar continued its free fall and U.S. stock index futures were down sharply, suggesting Wall Street would open lower after sinking Friday.
 

Mike

Well-known member
I thought you were AGAINST the big corporations? :roll:

They make up the DOW you know! :lol: :lol:

You're talking out of both sides of your mouth again............
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Mike said:
I thought you were AGAINST the big corporations? :roll:

They make up the DOW you know! :lol: :lol:

You're talking out of both sides of your mouth again............

Doesn't matter if I like big corporations or not-- that is a major portion of the US's overall wealth that is just disappearing into thin air....

And a lot of the investment money that has disappeared is the working mans that was counting on their portfolios for their retirement.... :( :(

Luckily some folks smarter than him stopped Dumya from putting all the countries retirement investment into the market....
 

Steve

Well-known member
OldTimer
Apparently our Stock Market investors didn't buy this as much of a fix either-- as of noon the Dow is down 155

After reading my post they decided it wasn't as bad as you said, and ended the day in the positive. and up +21.16, guess the rest should have stopped back.. :wink:
 

Steve

Well-known member
OldTimer
Diesel Fuel is right at $4 dollars here the other day- some areas of the country as high as $4.20- with the predictions it will be over $5 by the summer.....Oh thats right-you and your "der Furhrer" don't follow fuel prices...

today at the pump gas was $2.97

diesel is 3.89 but I could drive across town and pay 4.25..

your disdain for Bush clouds your judgement. your comment was -- $5 Fuel- not $5 fuel predicted this summer..

making a broad comment and saying I don't know what fuel prices are is like saying Bush didn't know gas was at $4

he shouldn't have know that, because gas wasn't at $4 bucks...

and still isn't in most areas.. highest price was in san fran at 3.66
http://www.eia.doe.gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_home_page.html

but feel free to follow the link and look at the facts.. seems the one not following prices is you....
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Steve said:
Had I noticed your poll earlier, I would have been able to convince a few of those who only read your gloomy outlook that it is not as bad as you think it is..

Steve--Thank you, thank you, thank you- I never realized I had so much influence over the folks on this site :wink: :lol: :lol:

But unlike the propoganda put out by this Administration (that politically won't even allow his staff to use the words "inflation" or "recession", I have tryed to put out what the conservative folks in the know (that years ago predicted what GW's globalist neocon warmongering/nation building policy would do the country).

I don't think most have to see what I post to see whats happening around them- as most have the same experiences as I do with my local store that handled my Vigortone mineral foreclosed on 2 months ago- and my local Feedstore that has been here for as long as I can remember (50+ years) closing April 1- sending a letter saying they can't afford Cheney's gas profiteering anymore- and that if we need feed supplies we will have to travel 150 miles to haul it.... :shock: :( :( :mad:
 

Faster horses

Well-known member
The store that "handled my Vigortone mineral" was a NAPA store, OT.
They kept some on hand for convenience.

Just wanted to clear that up. It was not a Vigortone retail store or warehouse.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Faster horses said:
The store that "handled my Vigortone mineral" was a NAPA store, OT.
They kept some on hand for convenience.

Just wanted to clear that up. It was not a Vigortone retail store or warehouse.

Don't know if they were a dealer or not- but the entire back of the store (over 1/2 the space) was used for storage of it- and its where many got their mineral-- unless you had the home storage and got truckloads at a time (which I don't) , and/or could be available to convenience the delivery date...When they wouldn't even acknowledge or admit to honor the bad stuff I got- I switched to Ultramin 12-12- which will probably sell a whole lot more-because the Feed Store that closed was the local dealer for Right Now mineral.....

You have to have the product "conveniently" available to sell it.. :?
 
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