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Economy- New Poll

Do You think the US Economy is Heading into or in a Recession--or a Depression?

  • No-the Economy is doing Fine

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Yes- a mild short Recession

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Yes- a prolonged Recession/Depression

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Economic Collapse

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    0

fff

Well-known member
Mike said:
You're still not making any sense. When you bail out a publicly traded investment institution, YOU ARE bailing out the little guy who has his investments tied up in the institution.

Or would you rather have him lose his house AND savings?

I don't think you understand the ripple effect either............. :roll:

The "little guy" is still losing his shirt. Bear Stearns stock that traded on Friday at $38 a share was priced at $2 on Monday after the "agreement" between the Fed and JP Morgan. Hundred of employees had their savings and retirements tied up in Bear Stearns stock that's virtually worthless now. But JPMorgan got with a building that's worth more than they paid for the whole company! Then they opened government the vault to every other bank that's in the same trouble. Will there be any sort of criteria to judge who gets how much money? Or will the managers of these welfare banks continue to draw their million$$ bonuses while the tax payers bail them out? Cut back on Medicade for the poor, cap Medicare costs, no health insurance for poor kids, thousands of Iraqi war vets are waiting in line for medical treatment, but, by God, those bankers will have their bonuses. :mad:
 

Mike

Well-known member
fff said:
Mike said:
You're still not making any sense. When you bail out a publicly traded investment institution, YOU ARE bailing out the little guy who has his investments tied up in the institution.

Or would you rather have him lose his house AND savings?

I don't think you understand the ripple effect either............. :roll:

The "little guy" is still losing his shirt. Bear Stearns stock that traded on Friday at $38 a share was priced at $2 on Monday after the "agreement" between the Fed and JP Morgan. Hundred of employees had their savings and retirements tied up in Bear Stearns stock that's virtually worthless now. But JPMorgan got with a building that's worth more than they paid for the whole company! Then they opened government the vault to every other bank that's in the same trouble. Will there be any sort of criteria to judge who gets how much money? Or will the managers of these welfare banks continue to draw their million$$ bonuses while the tax payers bail them out? Cut back on Medicade for the poor, cap Medicare costs, no health insurance for poor kids, thousands of Iraqi war vets are waiting in line for medical treatment, but, by God, those bankers will have their bonuses. :mad:


It's not a cash deal at $2.00 a share. It's in fact a stock-for-stock deal that pegged $2.00 to the J.P. Morgan stock on an exchange ratio of just over .054 shares of JPM for each share of Bear. So Bear shareholders will continue to ride up or down depending on the markets' reactions generally.

The building is a separate deal. JP Morgan has an option to buy it for $1.1 Billion.

Many want it to bankrupt. (Bondholders) Some shareholders want to hold out for another bid but the Fed won't agree to allow to a foreign takeover because of various reasons.

It's definitely a conundrum but Bear has had troubles as late as last year when a couple of hedge funds went sour.

Many are still tying it to Greenspans' ineptitude.
 

MoGal

Well-known member
This news is so wonderful ........... I think they pulled the story because now I can't get the link to work.......... can we say bank run on Monday???? (this is part of the last half of article)

Behind Bear Stearns: Cliff Notes on Financial Maelstrom
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article4076.html

[quote 1/2]Mar 20, 2008 - The financial condition of institutions within the US banking system has gone critical, with core assets gone negative. Total deposits held, free of borrowed US Fed reserves, have vanished.

US banks have burned through their entire capital core, melted down from disastrous mortgage portfolios, their bonds, and related CDO leveraged bond derivatives. They must now rely upon borrowed reserves from the US Fed in order to continue to function as lending institutions. They have turned heavily to the US Fed Term Auction Facility and now the Term Security Lending Facility for resupplied capital. . . .

The US banks by early December 2007 had about $43 billion in total reserves. The current statement by the Federal Reserve offers a daily average ‘Non-Borrowed Reserves' at MINUS $20 billion. Worse, the Fed Reserve estimates by early April that amount will be MINUS $60 billion.

The US banks are living off borrowed money, and time. Be prepared for some high profile bank failures, a process already begun. Home loan defaults have combined with falling home collateral valuation to destroy mortgage bonds and related securities to the extent that banks have lost their entire capital.

The only way to recover from this situation is for banks to find a way to make a lot of money really fast. The time has grown urgent to inflate rapidly, or else face an unstoppable chain reaction of bond failures followed by bank failures. Big banks do not have adequate loan loss reserves set aside.[end 1/2]
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Bank of America May Face $6.5Bil Loan Loss

MoneyNews
Monday, March 24, 2008


NEW YORK -- Bank of America Corp, the largest U.S. retail bank, may set aside a record $6.5 billion in the first quarter to cover possible future loan losses, including in its mortgage and home equity portfolios, according to a banking analyst.

Richard Bove of Punk Ziegel & Co also slashed his earnings forecasts for the bank through 2010, though he still expects a first-quarter profit.

He said actual losses in the portfolios should be "somewhat less" than the amount he expects set aside, suggesting the bank would be conservative in its forecast of future credit trends.
http://moneynews.newsmax.com/scripts/money/printer.pl?page=http://moneynews.newsmax.com/money/archives/articles/2008/3/24/081552.cfm
 

cutterone

Well-known member
Where's the bailout for Main Street?
This By Jim Jubak
There's no question that Wall Street needs help -- and it's getting it. But for the folks who are hurting most, this is no way to fight a recession.

Who's going to rescue the real economy? You know, the world of jobs and paychecks and grocery and doctor bills and filling up your car?

I see Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson scrambling to prevent the financial markets from imploding.

I see bankers and government officials meeting round the clock and on weekends to cobble together a deal to prevent a fire sale of Bear Stearns' (BSC, news, msgs) portfolio of mortgage-backed securities.

I see rate cuts on top of rate cuts and $200 billion credit lines on top of $200 billion credit lines that make it absolutely clear that Washington is determined to fix this financial crisis if it can.

But when it comes to the real economy, where people are struggling to make ends meet, where the work week keeps shrinking and where grocery bills keep expanding, all I see is a single $600 check -- $1,200 per family.

What exactly is that supposed to fix?

Hey, doesn't anybody know there's a recession going on?

Real pain in the real world
It would be hilarious that economists are still debating whether or not the economy has fallen into a recession if so many people weren't hurting so badly. If you live in the real world, you know there's a recession going on.

From January 2006 through January 2007, employment grew by 2%; over the next 12 months, through January 2008, employment grew by just 0.2% And the pain is worse than those numbers indicate. As employment growth slowed, so did wage growth, while at the same time inflation took a bigger bite out of paychecks. The rate of annual change in real wages -- pay adjusted for inflation -- turned negative in October. By January 2008, real wages were declining at an annual rate of 1%, according to the Economic Policy Institute.

So if you think your paycheck isn't keeping up with the price of milk, bread, medicine and gasoline, you're absolutely right.

And for many American families, this isn't a recent phenomenon. The median hourly real wage has been falling for the last three and a half years. So a family in the middle of the U.S. economic pyramid knows there's a recession going on; for some the recession has been going on for three years.

And, of course, that median family isn't among the worst off. Think of this the next time that anyone, myself included, tells you that the national unemployment rate is just 4.9% and that 4.9% isn't high enough to make this a real recession: Unemployment in Michigan was running at 7.6% at the end of 2007. It's one of seven states with unemployment rates above 6%.

Why isn't anybody helping?
What's puzzling to me, looking at these numbers and trying to imagine them not as digits but as people, is why we aren't doing more. Or, more exactly, why we aren't doing much of anything.

The last time we had a recession, the rather mild one that ushered in the current decade, Congress acted to extend unemployment benefits beyond the basic 26 weeks in March 2002. By that point in the recession, 1.3 million workers had exhausted their basic benefits.

Why's unemployment so low?

The unemployment rate is below 5%, low for such a seemingly weak economy. There are two possible reasons, says MSN Money's Jim Jubak: A lag in the official numbers and changes to traditional ways we work full-time and part-time jobs.

This time around, in the frantic effort to get any kind of stimulus package past both parties in Congress and past the White House, Congress refused to extend unemployment benefits for workers who had exhausted their basic benefits. Out of work for 27 weeks? Tough luck, we're cutting you off. You know, we're not really in a recession yet. It's just a slowdown. All you have to do is wait for those $600 checks to jump-start the economy
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Who's going to rescue the real economy? You know, the world of jobs and paychecks and grocery and doctor bills and filling up your car?

I see Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson scrambling to prevent the financial markets from imploding.

I see bankers and government officials meeting round the clock and on weekends to cobble together a deal to prevent a fire sale of Bear Stearns' (BSC, news, msgs) portfolio of mortgage-backed securities.

I see rate cuts on top of rate cuts and $200 billion credit lines on top of $200 billion credit lines that make it absolutely clear that Washington is determined to fix this financial crisis if it can.

But when it comes to the real economy, where people are struggling to make ends meet, where the work week keeps shrinking and where grocery bills keep expanding, all I see is a single $600 check -- $1,200 per family.

What exactly is that supposed to fix?

Hey, doesn't anybody know there's a recession going on?

AMEN-- but what can you expect from a neocon Administration, Treasury Secretary, and a Fed that for the past 7 years couldn't care a damn about what the middle class or working man is doing while they helped themselves and their elitist rich buddies fill their pockets.... :( :mad:
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
As GW still trys to learn how to spell R-E-C-E-S-S-I-O-N :roll: :wink: :lol: :( :(

Employers Cut 80,000 Jobs in March
Unemployment Rate Jumps to 5.1 Percent


By Neil Irwin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, April 4, 2008; 12:30 PM

Joblessness soared and employers shed jobs in March, the government said today in a report that offers strong evidence that the nation is in recession.

The unemployment rate rose to 5.1 percent, from 4.8 percent, the Labor Department said. Employers reduced their payrolls by 80,000 jobs in March, the steepest loss in five years and the third straight month of decline. And the department revised the previous two months employment levels down by another 67,000 positions.

The numbers are far worse than economists were forecasting, and they solidify the case that a serious economic downturn is underway.

"This paints a clear picture that we entered a recession in January
," said Dana Johnson, chief economist of Comerica Bank. "This is an economy that is contracting."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/04/AR2008040401345.html?referrer=email
 

Mike

Well-known member
Clinton's euphoric, but news causes stocks to plunge
July 5, 1996
Web posted at: 5:50 p.m. EDT

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Economists didn't expect June's unemployment rate to be much different from May's, which was an already-low 5.6 percent. But in fact, it did fall -- to 5.3 percent. The unemployment rate hasn't been that low since June 1990.
 

aplusmnt

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
As GW still trys to learn how to spell R-E-C-E-S-S-I-O-N :roll: :wink: :lol: :( :(

Employers Cut 80,000 Jobs in March
Unemployment Rate Jumps to 5.1 Percent


By Neil Irwin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, April 4, 2008; 12:30 PM

Joblessness soared and employers shed jobs in March, the government said today in a report that offers strong evidence that the nation is in recession.

The unemployment rate rose to 5.1 percent, from 4.8 percent, the Labor Department said. Employers reduced their payrolls by 80,000 jobs in March, the steepest loss in five years and the third straight month of decline. And the department revised the previous two months employment levels down by another 67,000 positions.

The numbers are far worse than economists were forecasting, and they solidify the case that a serious economic downturn is underway.

"This paints a clear picture that we entered a recession in January
," said Dana Johnson, chief economist of Comerica Bank. "This is an economy that is contracting."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/04/AR2008040401345.html?referrer=email

I can only imagine the level of excitement that you get when you read stuff like that! :roll:
 

aplusmnt

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
As GW still trys to learn how to spell R-E-C-E-S-S-I-O-N :roll: :wink: :lol: :( :(

Employers Cut 80,000 Jobs in March
Unemployment Rate Jumps to 5.1 Percent


By Neil Irwin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, April 4, 2008; 12:30 PM

Joblessness soared and employers shed jobs in March, the government said today in a report that offers strong evidence that the nation is in recession.

The unemployment rate rose to 5.1 percent, from 4.8 percent, the Labor Department said. Employers reduced their payrolls by 80,000 jobs in March, the steepest loss in five years and the third straight month of decline. And the department revised the previous two months employment levels down by another 67,000 positions.

The numbers are far worse than economists were forecasting, and they solidify the case that a serious economic downturn is underway.

"This paints a clear picture that we entered a recession in January
," said Dana Johnson, chief economist of Comerica Bank. "This is an economy that is contracting."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/04/AR2008040401345.html?referrer=email

I can only imagine the level of excitement that you get when you read stuff like that! :roll:
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
aplusmnt said:
Oldtimer said:
As GW still trys to learn how to spell R-E-C-E-S-S-I-O-N :roll: :wink: :lol: :( :(

Employers Cut 80,000 Jobs in March
Unemployment Rate Jumps to 5.1 Percent


By Neil Irwin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, April 4, 2008; 12:30 PM

Joblessness soared and employers shed jobs in March, the government said today in a report that offers strong evidence that the nation is in recession.

The unemployment rate rose to 5.1 percent, from 4.8 percent, the Labor Department said. Employers reduced their payrolls by 80,000 jobs in March, the steepest loss in five years and the third straight month of decline. And the department revised the previous two months employment levels down by another 67,000 positions.

The numbers are far worse than economists were forecasting, and they solidify the case that a serious economic downturn is underway.

"This paints a clear picture that we entered a recession in January
," said Dana Johnson, chief economist of Comerica Bank. "This is an economy that is contracting."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/04/04/AR2008040401345.html?referrer=email

I can only imagine the level of excitement that you get when you read stuff like that! :roll:

Actually no A+-- it makes me quite sad that we keep electing these idiots whose policies have put us into this situation.... :( :( :mad:

Soros: U.S. Facing Depression, Bush Clueless

Friday, April 4, 2008 10:08 AM

By: Newsmax Staff Article Font Size




A new book by billionaire investor George Soros warns that the U.S. is suffering the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression — and the Bush administration is in the dark about how to deal with it.

In “The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What It Means,” Soros — a major contributor to liberal causes — observes:

“The United States is facing both a recession and a flight from the dollar. The decline in housing prices, the weight of accumulated household debt, and the losses and uncertainties in the banking system threaten to push the economy into a self-reinforcing decline…

“We are in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.”

Measures to combat the financial decline increase the supply of dollars, while “at the same time, the flight from the dollar has set up inflationary pressures through higher energy, commodity, and food prices,” Soros writes.

Soros also notes that the European Central Bank’s reluctance to lower interest rates is putting upward pressure on the euro, and changes in the economy in China will “increase prices at Wal-Mart and put additional pressure on the already beleaguered U.S. consumer.

“Unfortunately this administration shows no understanding of the predicament in which it finds itself.”

http://www.newsmax.com/insidecover/Soros_Depression_book/2008/04/04/85514.html
 

Texan

Well-known member
Wow, there's a surprise. A big flaming liberal like George Soros releases a book criticizing the Bush Administration and Oldtimer jumps in bed with him. Imagine that.
 

Mike

Well-known member
Texan said:
Wow, there's a surprise. A big flaming liberal like George Soros releases a book criticizing the Bush Administration and Oldtimer jumps in bed with him. Imagine that.

Those libs have been stroking OT for a while. His butthole is so big from all the stroking he would probably have trouble crapping in a 55 gallon trashcan. :shock:
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Mike said:
Texan said:
Wow, there's a surprise. A big flaming liberal like George Soros releases a book criticizing the Bush Administration and Oldtimer jumps in bed with him. Imagine that.

Those libs have been stroking OT for a while. His butthole is so big from all the stroking he would probably have trouble crapping in a 55 gallon trashcan. :shock:

Yep- If someone even questions old GW's economic policy (which has centered around the sell out of America for short term profiteering of his rich and elitist buddies) they are immediately a Lib or a Communist or Luddie, or some other name...You GW Cheerleaders apparently swallowed the Kool-Aid all in one gulp..

If you have been watching the Congressional Hearings on the economy- and the Bear Stearns/Wallstreet taxpayer bailout hearing- you would have seen and known that there are just as many Senators with (R) behind their name that are not only scared of whats happening with the economy, and how volatile the taxpayers debt to bail out wallstreet is, but are also madder than Hell at GW, his Administration, and the Fed for getting into the situation its in....Many (R's) were questioning if the Fed and the Treasury were asleep at the wheel...


Apparently all you GW cheerleaders who think the economy is doing just hunkdory - haven't tried to contract or sell any calves lately :???:


Breaking News from MoneyNews.com

Gross: Government Must Act Quickly to
Save U.S. Economy


According to Bill Gross, the decline in home prices must stop if the U.S. economy is to revive, and Washington must act immediately — even though supporting home prices flies in the face of traditional Republican thinking.

"President Bush and Treasury Secretary Paulson argue that markets must ‘clear’ in order to avoid similar mistakes made by Japanese authorities in the 1990s,” Pimco’s Gross says. "Yet we may have passed the point of no return for ‘clearing’ markets.”

Gross observes that the debts behind the crisis remain un-liquidated — now primarily in another private portfolio since the Fed absorbed only 10 percent of the collateral — and must be validated by increased cash flows.

He points out that the current 20 percent decline in home prices is a much bigger shock to the American economy than the Internet bubble burst or the NASDAQ 5000 simply because the amount of homeowner leverage is so much greater.

"A 20 percent negative adjustment not only wipes out all ownership equity for millions of Americans, it turns their homes ‘upside down’ — incentivizing them to let their gardens grow weeds instead of lettuce,” Gross observes. "The decline needs to be stopped quickly in order to avert additional crises” that may well lead to economic collapse.

As for Wall Street, Gross says that the Bear Stearns crisis, emblematic of the difficulties a shadow banking system creates, shows it's high time Wall Street got a good dose of regulation.

Private credit markets, Gross argues, gave up their right to operate relatively control-free because of the incompetence and excessive greed they fostered and should now be controlled even though controls increase the chances of inflation.

Investment banks — which currently have only 50 percent of the capital base of commercial banks — will simply have to meet the same requirements that commercial banks do, which will reduce the profitability of investment firms like Goldman, Lehman, and Merrill Lynch.

Narrowing the differences between commercial and investment banks means the latter will almost certainly have to raise expensive capital as well as reduce their bottom lines — costly moves, but ones that will help both stock prices and bond spreads.

Though politicians remain adamantly opposed to Main Street bailing out Wall Street speculators, they keep overlooking the fact that the average 5 percent yield on money market funds so common only a year ago has been reduced to a mere 2 percent.

"It looks like (the taxpayer’s) contribution to the bailout ... can at least be quantified,” Gross notes. "Three percent foregone interest per year on whatever you own — and your contribution to the bailout will be even greater since you’ll likely wind up paying higher prices for many of the things you’ll buy.”
 

Texan

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
Apparently all you GW cheerleaders who think the economy is doing just hunkdory - haven't tried to contract or sell any calves lately :???:
Yeah, I'm sure you and the guys at the watering hole - and you and the guys that sit around watching C-Span all day - probably run a lot more cattle than anybody else does. How do you guys decide which day to bitch about the cattle market and which day to gloat about the grain markets? :lol:
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Texan said:
Oldtimer said:
Apparently all you GW cheerleaders who think the economy is doing just hunkdory - haven't tried to contract or sell any calves lately :???:
Yeah, I'm sure you and the guys at the watering hole - and you and the guys that sit around watching C-Span all day - probably run a lot more cattle than anybody else does. How do you guys decide which day to bitch about the cattle market and which day to gloat about the grain markets? :lol:

The Ag diversification of old is coming back to be worthwhile :) .....For your info Texan- C-SPAN replays all those hearings at night (minus all the vote recess's)- and they are much more informative than watching replays of sleepy time Fred on Law and Order or Big Brother... Altho I must admit that Looney Toons is more educational than GW's economic policy....

Maybe this is whats putting all you neocons into such dither- can't get your normal caffeine fix...... :wink: :lol:


Weak Dollar Driving Coffee Drinkers Crazy

The price of coffee, the other black gold and the second most-traded commodity after oil, is on the way up, up, up.

Blame the weak dollar (like oil, coffee beans are traded in dollars) and rising demand in formerly tea-crazy countries in Asia.

That’s because wholesale prices of coffee are reaching the highest levels in the past decade. Coffee companies and chains have boosted prices to combat costs — and they’re passing that cost along.
 

Faster horses

Well-known member
OT, I don't know about you, but we never contract calves this early. Usually it's foolish to do so.

So, maybe it's just a matter of poor timing. Patience, my friend, patience...
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Faster horses said:
OT, I don't know about you, but we never contract calves this early. Usually it's foolish to do so.

So, maybe it's just a matter of poor timing. Patience, my friend, patience...

Ain't me-- Its some of those guys that are deep into the bankers- who are wanting them to lock into a price they can get their money back....Some years, most the "higher" priced calves from our area were being contracted in April/May- many on Superior using the previous years videos....

One of those guys that sold last year early at 590 for $1.30+ (Nov 1 Delivery) tried last Superior video and couldn't even get a dollar bid....Said he couldn't even break even with the raising costs at that....

Funny how those Wall Street bankers/investors can play loose and wild with our money- and government under GW bails them out with taxpayer bucks- believing you can borrow forever without paying it back- but these local bankers have some little fixation on wanting guarantees they're going to get paid :shock: :wink: :lol:
 

backhoeboogie

Well-known member
You come to this forum and all the libs try to make you believe Americans are starving to death. They want welfare funding.

You go turn on the lib news and hear that obesity is an epidemic. They want funding for that too.

Which one of you two are telling the truth? You need to get together on your stories. Recruit Al Gore. He's got most of the free world listening to his "sky if falling" hoopla. He could be a convincing spoke person for all you sqeaky wheels begging for grease.

One more thing. On this college funding catastrophe. What is wrong with people going to night school and paying as they go, just like the way we did? There's no shame in them getting a day job. It might also ward off part of that obesity issue the media was whining about in the story just before.
 

aplusmnt

Well-known member
backhoeboogie said:
What is wrong with people going to night school and paying as they go, just like the way we did? There's no shame in them getting a day job. It might also ward off part of that obesity issue the media was whining about in the story just before.


Goes back to personal responsibility! Libs do not like those two words. They think everything should be easy and from the government.

To put myself through college I worked M-W-F nights grave yard shift cleaning toilets after going M-W-F school classes. Then I could sleep all day T-Th-Sat. Then get up on Saturday night and run a rural paper route that took 8 hours all night for the Sunday paper.

Libs would rather the Government pay their way, any person who wants an education can get one.
 

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