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El Nino

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Anonymous

Guest
Weather experts say El Niño will affect climate
By MICHAEL BABCOCK • Tribune Outdoor Editor • October 16, 2009

Federal weather watchers said Thursday that winter in Montana and much of the northcentral United States will be warmer and drier this year because an El Niño — a warm current water in the Pacific Ocean that affects weather patterns — will dominate December through February weather.


If that happens, it could be bad news for much of Montana, which for the past year or two has been climbing out of near dust-bowl conditions created by a decade of drought.
"That's not too good of news," said Brady-area farmer Gary Gollehon. "Right now, we are pretty wet but not overly wet.
"I hope it is cold and snowy myself. If they are saying dry and warm, I don't care to see it — not only from a farmer standpoint but for our trees. They are used to going to bed in the winter and waking up in spring. Warmth in winter will get them to growing, and if we get cold weather it will hurt them. We have a yard full of green leaves that fell off our trees. Even Mother Nature got fooled — everybody did."
At a news conference Thursday morning, Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center — a division of the National Weather Service — said:
"We expect El Niño to strengthen and persist through the winter months, providing clues as to what the weather will be like during the period."
He noted that warmer water in the equatorial Pacific shifts the patterns of tropical rainfall, which affects the position and strengths of the jet stream and weather systems over the Pacific and the United States.
"Other climate factors are also likely to play a role in the winter weather at times across the country," Halpert said. "Some of these factors, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, are difficult to predict more than one to two weeks in advance. The NAO adds uncertainty to the forecast in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic portions of the country."
"We have been through El Niño years before, and out of all of them we had one bad ski winter," said George Willett, owner/operator of Showdown Ski Area southeast of Great Falls. "The rest were fine. We get great snow as long as there is moisture in the air. The warmer temperatures — all that does is help pine beetles survive. We have been below zero once or twice already. We have to wait and see how it plays out. They make all of these projections long term and they have a tough time getting tomorrow right."

Willett said the ski area has about 18 inches of snow at the top of Porphyry Peak, and 3 to 4 inches near the lodge. He said it rained Wednesday night and Thursday morning at Showdown. The ski area typically opens in early December.


Officials with Great Divide Ski Area say eager skiers can hit the slopes this weekend — the area's earliest-ever opening date.
Kevin Taylor said the ski area's snow-making machines were put to work during a recent cold snap, creating enough snow to build a miniature terrain park. The ski area will be open to skiers for free this weekend. Taylor said Great Divide will remain open on weekends as long as the snow sticks around.
The ski area's previous earliest opening date was Halloween in 1998.
Gollehon said most wheat farmers probably planted their winter wheat in September, with the hope it will grow to 4 or 5 inches high before getting covered by a foot of snow.
"Some guys, because of recent moisture, are talking about going out and planting more. It is kind of a crap shoot this late in the season," he said.
"I would like to see a winter like we had last winter — it was miserable. We were isolated for six days and we couldn't get out, and we ran out of groceries," Gollehon said. "I would like to see a winter like we used to have — a lot of snow. Everybody would like to see that.
"It is miserable for livestock men but it pays big dividends. It fills the reservoirs and makes for green grass," he added. "Nothing worse than a 70 degree day in December and the wind blowing 60 miles an hour."
Highlights of the U.S. Winter Outlook for December through February include:

Warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across much of the western and central U.S., especially in the northcentral states from Montana to Wisconsin. Though temperatures may average warmer than usual, periodic outbreaks of cold air are still possible.

Drier-than-average conditions are expected in the Pacific Northwest and the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys.

The National Weather Service cautioned that the seasonal outlook does not predict where and when snowstorms may hit, nor does it estimate total seasonal snowfall accumulations. Snow forecasts are dependent upon winter storms, which are generally not predictable more than several days in advance.
 

Faster horses

Well-known member
The best time for a drought is in the winter. :p

Every odd numbered year in this country has been better
precipitation-wise than the even numbered years. That
has been told to us and has proven to be true since we moved here in 1993.

After last/winter spring in Montana, I can't believe anyone
that would be sad about a warmer winter. We have to take what
we get anyway.
It would be great to get a warmer winter and warmer, wetter spring.
Thanks for posting that, OT.
 

Denny

Well-known member
Well it's rained and snowed here nearly every day in the last two weeks so I'd take a bit of a drought now. Oh and it's been cold also.
 

katrina

Well-known member
Denny said:
Well it's rained and snowed here nearly every day in the last two weeks so I'd take a bit of a drought now. Oh and it's been cold also.

Us too denny....... Corn is wet...... Sunflowers are really wet... We did get out silage in....
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
.CLIMATE...
OCTOBER REMAINS ON A RECORD COLD PACE IN GLASGOW. THRU THE 14TH...
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 35.1 DEGREES IS 13.9 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THIS IS 2.0 DEGREES COLDER THAN OCTOBER 1959...WHICH
CURRENTLY IS IN 2ND PLACE AS THE COLDEST OCTOBER THRU THE 14TH.
ALTHOUGH WE REACHED ABOVE 40 DEGREES TODAY THE 15H...THERE WERE 6
CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS BELOW 40. ONLY IN 1959 WAS THERE
ANOTHER SUCH STRETCH OF HIGHS BELOW 40 DEGREES SO EARLY IN THE
SEASON. THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON FELL ON THE
14TH ALSO...ABOUT A WEEK EARLIER THAN NORMAL. THE FIRST TRACE
AMOUNT WAS ON THE 7TH.

I agree that I would much rather see the moisture come as spring rain..... I was looking- and since JAN 1 we have officially received 9.3 inches of rain here at the weather bureau this year...
No wonder the early day explorers called this country the Great American Desert....
 

Faster horses

Well-known member
We have only recieved a little over 11 inches of moisture for the year
to date, but it's amazing how well everything did this year. Perhaps because it was cooler than normal, or perhaps because the rain came at the right time.

This country doesn't need much rain, but it does need some. :p
 
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Anonymous

Guest
El Nino must have hit...Just came in and the thermometer shows 74 :shock: :) Beautiful day- What a change from earlier in the week... Wednesday the country was solid white....

But the weather boys are predicting temps back in the 40's and 50's next week- with more rain/snow Monday....
 

Blkbuckaroo

Well-known member
We had a pretty good pour here last week,real heavy clouds here but only had a small drizzle of rain outta' the expected storm they were predicting for today.Just talk to a client in the bay area,said it was raining good down there.
 

Yanuck

Well-known member
Blkbuckaroo said:
We had a pretty good pour here last week,real heavy clouds here but only had a small drizzle of rain outta' the expected storm they were predicting for today.Just talk to a client in the bay area,said it was raining good down there.

so you're saying my Mom is getting wet today? she's on a tour there for the next few days
 

Blkbuckaroo

Well-known member
Yanuck said:
Blkbuckaroo said:
We had a pretty good pour here last week,real heavy clouds here but only had a small drizzle of rain outta' the expected storm they were predicting for today.Just talk to a client in the bay area,said it was raining good down there.

so you're saying my Mom is getting wet today? she's on a tour there for the next few days
I imagine your mom is ina nice warm cafe' or eatery overlooking the bay watching the rain come down and enjoying good company :) ,or getting soaked :shock: :lol: :wink:
 

Yanuck

Well-known member
Blkbuckaroo said:
Yanuck said:
Blkbuckaroo said:
We had a pretty good pour here last week,real heavy clouds here but only had a small drizzle of rain outta' the expected storm they were predicting for today.Just talk to a client in the bay area,said it was raining good down there.

so you're saying my Mom is getting wet today? she's on a tour there for the next few days
I imagine your mom is ina nice warm cafe' or eatery overlooking the bay watching the rain come down and enjoying good company :) ,or getting soaked :shock: :lol: :wink:

they're staying by Fisherman's wharf....if there's a casino within 10 miles I'm sure she's find it :lol: :lol:
 

Blkbuckaroo

Well-known member
I don't think there's any slot machines at pier 39,which is the big fishermen's wharf tourist trap.I kind of wish i was being a tourist in Frisco today.Sky is starting to open up to the west,still cloudy east toward Reno though.
 

Hereford76

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
.CLIMATE...
OCTOBER REMAINS ON A RECORD COLD PACE IN GLASGOW. THRU THE 14TH...
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 35.1 DEGREES IS 13.9 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THIS IS 2.0 DEGREES COLDER THAN OCTOBER 1959...WHICH
CURRENTLY IS IN 2ND PLACE AS THE COLDEST OCTOBER THRU THE 14TH.
ALTHOUGH WE REACHED ABOVE 40 DEGREES TODAY THE 15H...THERE WERE 6
CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS BELOW 40. ONLY IN 1959 WAS THERE
ANOTHER SUCH STRETCH OF HIGHS BELOW 40 DEGREES SO EARLY IN THE
SEASON. THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON FELL ON THE
14TH ALSO...ABOUT A WEEK EARLIER THAN NORMAL. THE FIRST TRACE
AMOUNT WAS ON THE 7TH.

I agree that I would much rather see the moisture come as spring rain..... I was looking- and since JAN 1 we have officially received 9.3 inches of rain here at the weather bureau this year...
No wonder the early day explorers called this country the Great American Desert....

come one over and i'll show you why they called it the Great North American Desert... we have had 2.06 inches of measurable rain this year. OT did you see the steam engine go by the other day
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Hereford76 said:
Oldtimer said:
.CLIMATE...
OCTOBER REMAINS ON A RECORD COLD PACE IN GLASGOW. THRU THE 14TH...
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 35.1 DEGREES IS 13.9 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. THIS IS 2.0 DEGREES COLDER THAN OCTOBER 1959...WHICH
CURRENTLY IS IN 2ND PLACE AS THE COLDEST OCTOBER THRU THE 14TH.
ALTHOUGH WE REACHED ABOVE 40 DEGREES TODAY THE 15H...THERE WERE 6
CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH HIGHS BELOW 40. ONLY IN 1959 WAS THERE
ANOTHER SUCH STRETCH OF HIGHS BELOW 40 DEGREES SO EARLY IN THE
SEASON. THE FIRST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON FELL ON THE
14TH ALSO...ABOUT A WEEK EARLIER THAN NORMAL. THE FIRST TRACE
AMOUNT WAS ON THE 7TH.

I agree that I would much rather see the moisture come as spring rain..... I was looking- and since JAN 1 we have officially received 9.3 inches of rain here at the weather bureau this year...
No wonder the early day explorers called this country the Great American Desert....

come one over and i'll show you why they called it the Great North American Desert... we have had 2.06 inches of measurable rain this year. OT did you see the steam engine go by the other day

I missed it- tied up with a fellow looking at some heifers...But my son got to see it come into Williston in the early morning hours- with steam trailing out behind it for what looked like miles- and said it was pretty impressive....
You not getting any rain this morning :???: ...Looks like 1/2 the state is getting some...We had a couple showers- and fog- but no real rain yet... So far most has stayed south of the Missouri again--but the weather boys still say we could pick up a 1/2 an inch or more tonight...

Temp today is 42- quite a change from the 70's we had over the weekend...
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Looks like our rain is about thru...Misted all day-Drizzled all night and we picked up another .3 - which on top of last weeks .3 has made things a little sloppy around here..
 
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