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Election Trend Update

Faster horses

Well-known member
AFF Sentinel
For Immediate Release

Election Trends Update


Colorado Springs, CO Nov. 2, 2012

Don't forget our industry blog, Freemarketcarnivore. Our blog posts are not sent to you direct like the newsletter. But you can sign up on the blog to get an e-mail message sent to you when something new is posted.


Warning: this column goes deep into election year politics. The election is just days away. This column contains insights from two political analysts we respect: Dick Morris and the author of the book we're drawing from in our "Keynesianomics vs. Reaganomics" series, Michael Reagan. We will finish the Reaganomics series over the next couple days.



Most of our columns regarding the election have been designed to provide you with information regarding the federal government's effect on food production in general and meat animal agriculture in particular. This is information and opinions you can draw from in running your business, as well as discussing the great political issues of the day with your colleagues, family, friends and community. Interestingly, Dick Morris said Friday during an "Insider Briefing," "word of mouth is increasingly the game."

We think what Morris was getting at is that in this age where general media is fragmented among many sources and is heavily biased in a liberal direction, where regular people can communicate with each other by phone, text, e-mail and Facebook in addition to face-to-face and where the economy has gotten so bad it is second only to the weather when folks meet and chit-chat in line, word of mouth may be more important than at any time in history. Go figure.

Another reason for our election focus has been to convince animal agriculture that this election was winnable -- presidential and Congress -- and that your attention and effort was not just important but justified, not just for your business climate but for your freedoms and liberties as a citizen.

With this election bearing down quickly and polls as thick as hair on a dog's back, we listened with interest today when Dick Morris and Michael Reagan held a telephone "Insider Briefing," hosted by Newmax today and connected with Reagan's Superpac for America. Here are some highlights.

Morris began by noting that while the overall trends were in Mitt Romney's favor, President Obama had gotten a small bounce from his tours of the disaster areas suffering from the storm Sandy. Rassmussen's poll had gone from Romney up two points back to a dead heat (48/48). But Morris reiterated his long-time position that Romney wins ties for two reasons: 1) Republican voters are more enthusiastic and committed. If the polls say 48 percent for Republicans, 48 percent will get out and vote. The Democrats, on the other hand, will turn out probably 43-46 percent. 2) The incumbent loses most of the undecided vote because if he has not convinced voters by now, they will end up voting for the challenger.

Michael Reagan concurred, recalling the frenetic pace of campaigning the last weekend of 1980. Both agreed that major shifts can occur in the last weekend that won't be picked up in the polls at all.

Reagan attributed Obama's small bounce from Hurricane Sandy as the benefit of being on television a lot, looking presidential doing what presidents do, without having to pay for the airtime. What will be key is when the backlash will kick in. After the initial visits and sympathy, when days go by and it proves impossible to get fuel, electricity and transportation back for everyone quickly and the enormity of deaths and damage really sinks in to those initially just thankful to be alive, that polling bounce could disappear. In addition, some folks in the Northeast without a home, power, gas or transportation may not flat be able to vote, in a region that is mostly Democratic.

How do the swing states stack up now, late in the game? Morris and Reagan agree that, if trends continue, Romney should win Florida and Virginia. They think Ohio is winnable and Iowa should squeak into the Romney column. As for Wisconsin, Morris explains that the state has undergone a fundamental shift. Wisconsin has elected a Republican governor and both houses of the legislature, two Republican Congressmen, returned the Republican governor in a recall and more. He believes Wisconsin will go for Romney. Nevada, New Mexico and Oregon will go for Obama.

But the real surprises could come in states like Pennsylvania, partially because of Obama's War on Coal. Obama's coal policy has already made Romney a lock in Kentucky and West Virginia and is affecting Ohio. Morris also notes sharp change in Pennsylvania, having elected a Republican governor and both houses of the legislature and five new Republican Congressmen out of 18. Morris knows the state well, having managed three gubernatorial campaigns there, and terms it the "soft underbelly" of the Democratic party. He noted that Obama lost the primary to Hillary 55/45 in the last election cycle.

Reagan feels the Reagan Democrats are ripe in Pennsylvania again -- many coal miners and blue collar workers -- just as they were in 1980. As Morris put it, coal used to be an industry, until this administration made it Public Enemy #1. In addition, Reagan predicted that if reelected, Obama would outlaw fracking by Executive Order and coal would be phased out entirely.

Reagan explained that Superpac for America has used its funding to go into states Obama has not been concentrating on, figuring he had them won: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan. Overall media buys for Romney are 5 to 1 in Pennsylvania and also high compared to Obama in Wisconsin (superpacforamerica.com).

Morris also explained two other trends: early voting and absentee ballots. In past elections, early voting has gotten more Democratic votes, as it gives unions and other groups time to bus people from nursing homes, union rallies and factories right to the polls. Republicans have tended to use absentee ballots more, as they travel on business more and want to make sure their vote gets counted. What gives optimism is that usually Democratic early voting has been favoring Romney this time by seven points, as tracked by Gallup. Republicans have been requesting more absentee ballots, Democrats fewer.

Incidentally, we've also seen Karl Rove break out Ohio on early voting and absentee ballots. Early voting trending to Romney and Republican absentee requests increasing over last time appear to have wiped out the entire margin of victory for Obama last time in Ohio.

Both men agree this election is primarily about the economy. So Reagan urged people when they talk to family, friends and colleagues to make sure they vote, to bring the conversation around to the economy and Benghazi.

We agree. Many voters are going to go with their gut on the economy and don't like the way its going. The Romney campaign is treading around Benghazi rather than using it. We haven't discussed Benghazi much, as other subjects are more closely related to our charter. But we see it nevertheless as an issue extremely troubling to anyone who has heard very much about it. It could have been a major Romney weapon, rather than a background factor. After the election, win or lose, the Obama will have an extremely difficult time explaining and extricating himself from a tragedy that should never have happened.
 
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