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Election Will Be All About Obama

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Whitewing

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http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/04/14/2012_will_be_all_about_obama_113849.html

The most important indicator of the president’s prospects will be his job-approval rating. That rating will be very close to his share of the vote on Election Day. In 2004, President George W. Bush had a 51 percent job approval rating and won 51 percent of the vote.

Obama’s ratings suggest we are heading for a potentially very close race. For the past 32 months, the full month approval ratings for the president have been remarkably stable, holding to a very narrow range of 44 percent to 49 percent. People seem to have formed an opinion of the president, and nothing can change their minds. Those who oppose the president tend to feel more strongly about it than those who support him.

For most of the past three years, the president’s ratings have stayed in an even narrower band of 46 percent to 48 percent. Those numbers suggest Obama would earn just under 50 percent of the vote on Election Day. If the president can win over a few more voters and move those numbers up a bit in the coming months, he is very likely to keep his job. If the president’s ratings falter, Romney is likely to be moving into the White House next January.

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Personally, I think his job approval ratings are actually lower than the pollsters report. Why? Because I believe a certain percentage of folks in those polls would rather say they approve of his job performance than be thought of as racist for saying they don't.

Just my 2 cents.
 

Steve

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People seem to have formed an opinion of the president, and nothing can change their minds. Those who oppose the president tend to feel more strongly about it than those who support him.

often for those to vote in a poll requires little effort beyond answering the phone.. so with mediocre support and strong opposition, Obama will face a tougher challenge then Carter did..

2/29-3/3/80 Gallup 52 38

5/2-5/80 Gallup 43 47
http://webapps.ropercenter.uconn.edu/CFIDE/roper/presidential/webroot/presidential_rating_detail.cfm?allRate=True&presidentName=Carter#.T4oca2Gamwo

to think Carter started with a 70+ approval rating ..

and it went downhill from there... Just like Obama's...
 

Tam

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According to Rasmussen

Date 04 /14/ 12


Presidential Approval Index -18


Strongly Approve 23%


Strongly Disapprove 41%


Total Approve 45%


Total Disapprove 52%
 

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