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agman

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Corn crop at 10.162 billion bushels, avg yield 136.6 bu per acre. This production estimate taken during the past week compares to the August 1, USDA estimate of 10.3 billion bushels. Crop conditions continued to deteriorate due to heat through the first ten days of August. The USDA will pick up any deterioration after August 1, on their September 1 report which will be made public September 12.

Soybean crop at 2.783 billion bushels, avg yield 38.5 bu per acre.

A corn crop size of 10.162 billion bushels will leave a carryout at the end of the new marketing year of 1.737 billion bushels. That is more than enough corn to keep prices in check for cattle feeders.

What is your crop estimate from your survey CattleCo?
 

agman

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CattleCo said:
'bout the same! beans maybe a little lower
:roll:

My own data is showing a yield of 136 bu per acre. Abandonment is likely to be a bit higher so final production, even if yields are better than 136 bu per acre, would still yield a 10.1 billion bushel crop. A 10.1 billion bushel corn crop would rank as the third or fourth largest on record. This would leave the carryout at 1.7 billion bushels, certainly not a crisis.
 

CattleCo

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Agman,
I really think the corn will be a tick under 10B, but we will not get that number till after the first of the year. The less than 10 B , if that happens, won't be enough to make much of a difference. As you brokers know,"Perception is Reality" in Agriculture. As for the beans, last year the early varieties were lucky to make 30 bu in this part of the world.
When was the last time we had 2 years of drought in the Midwest? I am asking you, Agman. My biggest concerns for 2006 are weather, we do not have an overabundance of water in the Corn Belt, the heavy rains from last Jan and Feb are gone....field tiles quit running about 10 - 15 days ago. That was pretty remarkable they ran that long around here.
My other concern is cost of production as oil does not appear to be getting any cheaper.
I hear Iowa has old corn going for 1.50 @ bu???? What happened to all the resurregence of the cattle feeding i the Midwest????
Any ideas Agman on the new farm bill????
I hear cash rents of over [email protected] acre?? If that is true, and you get all your money up front (which is the ONLY way to CR) I would CR.
TO say the least it will be an interesting fall......and YES I see the wreck in the cattle market coming....................and a lot of folks I talk with do to!
The mental arrogrance of the industry will continue to think they are bullet proof! Oh, yes I forgot..... NCBA is going to save us all!
:roll:
 
A

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CattleCo said:
Agman
The mental arrogrance of the industry will continue to think they are bullet proof! Oh, yes I forgot..... NCBA is going to save us all!
:roll:

OH NO! We've just went thru 20 years of that :!: :cry: :( :mad: And the last 2 years were the best we had- when R-CALF proved what they said....
 

jigs

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crop estimates, and carryover are not what is killing the grain farmer.

the fact is that a few thousand a-holes in Chicago wearing jackets and ties are the ones who dictates the price, plus a bunch more jerks in Washington who use food as a weapon of trade . What if the auto industry had thier prices set by a board of trade? if the japs dumped a bunch of cars on us, and the bottom fell out, what would Iacoca do?

board of trade should be set up to only allow producers or those who can back up the paper with a commodity to trade. these "profit taking" trades are rediculous. Some prick billionair buys and sells millions of bushels and gets wealthy while never having a clue how to raise the crop ! he retires off of my sweat and toil.....what to I get? the same price for corn my grandfather got in 1952!

someone tell Bin Laden the true power of the USA is the CBOT and the USDA.....
 

CattleCo

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Oldtimer,
R-Calf has not proved one damm thing! I was a member early on.....when they went off the deep end I got out!
Jigs,
Yep, the suits in Chicago have us by the nuts! But, the commodity brokers, R-CAlf, NCBA, economist, and Farm Bureau is goin gto save us all!!!!!!!!!!!!! Unfortunately, you cannot eat charts and graphs! I am glad I am on the back side of my working years. :)
 

agman

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jigs said:
crop estimates, and carryover are not what is killing the grain farmer.

the fact is that a few thousand a-holes in Chicago wearing jackets and ties are the ones who dictates the price, plus a bunch more jerks in Washington who use food as a weapon of trade . What if the auto industry had thier prices set by a board of trade? if the japs dumped a bunch of cars on us, and the bottom fell out, what would Iacoca do?

board of trade should be set up to only allow producers or those who can back up the paper with a commodity to trade. these "profit taking" trades are rediculous. Some prick billionair buys and sells millions of bushels and gets wealthy while never having a clue how to raise the crop ! he retires off of my sweat and toil.....what to I get? the same price for corn my grandfather got in 1952!

someone tell Bin Laden the true power of the USA is the CBOT and the USDA.....

Just to show how far out of touch you are Lee Iaccoca retired at least a decade ago. If you are no better informed about your business than that no wonder you want to blame others and legislate them out of existence.

Just a reminder, average corn yields in the mid-50's were less than 50 bushels per acre. If you think the traders at the CBOT make so much money why don't you buy a membership and trade for yourself- it is so easy per your comments. Question, why don't you complain when prices go up or do you just mistakenly believe speculators take prices down?
 

agman

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Oldtimer said:
CattleCo said:
Agman
The mental arrogrance of the industry will continue to think they are bullet proof! Oh, yes I forgot..... NCBA is going to save us all!
:roll:

OH NO! We've just went thru 20 years of that :!: :cry: :( :mad: And the last 2 years were the best we had- when R-CALF proved what they said....

What did R-CAlf exactly prove other than they have been wrong on virtually every issue. Are you still so foolish as to believe the market went up because of R-Calf? You probably do since you have proven quite clearly you know very little about the actual market and when presented with the facts you conveniently make some other excuse.
 
A

Anonymous

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agman said:
Oldtimer said:
CattleCo said:
Agman
The mental arrogrance of the industry will continue to think they are bullet proof! Oh, yes I forgot..... NCBA is going to save us all!
:roll:

OH NO! We've just went thru 20 years of that :!: :cry: :( :mad: And the last 2 years were the best we had- when R-CALF proved what they said....

What did R-CAlf exactly prove other than they have been wrong on virtually every issue. Are you still so foolish as to believe the market went up because of R-Calf? You probably do since you have proven quite clearly you know very little about the actual market and when presented with the facts you conveniently make some other excuse.

No- much of the market rise was because of BSE and the closed border- which showed the effect that imported beef and live cattle have on the US market and US producers income- especially on cull cattle...Something that R-CALF has said for years- and now people have a tangible proof of what that effect is ...
 

agman

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Oldtimer said:
agman said:
Oldtimer said:
OH NO! We've just went thru 20 years of that :!: :cry: :( :mad: And the last 2 years were the best we had- when R-CALF proved what they said....

What did R-CAlf exactly prove other than they have been wrong on virtually every issue. Are you still so foolish as to believe the market went up because of R-Calf? You probably do since you have proven quite clearly you know very little about the actual market and when presented with the facts you conveniently make some other excuse.

No- much of the market rise was because of BSE and the closed border- which showed the effect that imported beef and live cattle have on the US market and US producers income- especially on cull cattle...Something that R-CALF has said for years- and now people have a tangible proof of what that effect is ...

How many cows do we slaughter annually in the U.S; a five year average will do? What was the annual level of Canadian cow imports pre-BSE?
What is the change in domestic cow slaughter since the peak in 1996?

I don't expect you to know the answers to the aforementioned questions. If you did know the answer you would not have made the meaningless post which you made. I am sorry, you are a certified member of the facts-be-damned group. Misinformation is your forte, facts are irrelevant to you.
 
A

Anonymous

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agman said:
Oldtimer said:
agman said:
What did R-CAlf exactly prove other than they have been wrong on virtually every issue. Are you still so foolish as to believe the market went up because of R-Calf? You probably do since you have proven quite clearly you know very little about the actual market and when presented with the facts you conveniently make some other excuse.

No- much of the market rise was because of BSE and the closed border- which showed the effect that imported beef and live cattle have on the US market and US producers income- especially on cull cattle...Something that R-CALF has said for years- and now people have a tangible proof of what that effect is ...

How many cows do we slaughter annually in the U.S; a five year average will do? What was the annual level of Canadian cow imports pre-BSE?
What is the change in domestic cow slaughter since the peak in 1996?

I don't expect you to know the answers to the aforementioned questions. If you did know the answer you would not have made the meaningless post which you made. I am sorry, you are a certified member of the facts-be-damned group. Misinformation is your forte, facts are irrelevant to you.

Agman- like I've said before- numbers and statistics can be juggled anyway you want to show anything the way you want it to..........Border closed- record high prices- cash in the hand.....now thats a tangible most can recognize...
 

agman

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Oldtimer said:
agman said:
Oldtimer said:
No- much of the market rise was because of BSE and the closed border- which showed the effect that imported beef and live cattle have on the US market and US producers income- especially on cull cattle...Something that R-CALF has said for years- and now people have a tangible proof of what that effect is ...

How many cows do we slaughter annually in the U.S; a five year average will do? What was the annual level of Canadian cow imports pre-BSE?
What is the change in domestic cow slaughter since the peak in 1996?

I don't expect you to know the answers to the aforementioned questions. If you did know the answer you would not have made the meaningless post which you made. I am sorry, you are a certified member of the facts-be-damned group. Misinformation is your forte, facts are irrelevant to you.

Agman- like I've said before- numbers and statistics can be juggled anyway you want to show anything the way you want it to..........Border
closed- record high prices- cash in the hand.....now thats a tangible most can recognize...

What evidence do you have that one caused the other, none a usual?

Do you or do you not know the answers to the questions I posed, yes or no?
 

CattleCo

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"Agman- like I've said before- numbers and statistics can be juggled anyway you want to show anything the way you want it to..........Border
closed- record high prices- cash in the hand.....now thats a tangible most can recognize..."

I am going to ride with Agman on this one........We had more boxed beef coming across the border than prior to the closing. Since Canada could not send them live down here.....they just sent the Beef in a box. According to what I have read the tonnage of available Canadina beef was greater after the border closing than before. So, if this is true......how could the border closing make the great beef market? I will agree with Agman.....demand got good, diet deal got good, supply was perceived to be a little short??? Folks had some money to buy beef
( before gas got higher than hell!)In my opinion the challenge facing the cattle feeding business is.....how in the hell can you pay 120.00 for a600+ calf and need a 95.00 fat price to break even and the board will not let you cover the deal?????? We have a lot of deals to work out and hashing over the damm border deal is wasting time and money. I think we need to get Leo and Terry to smoke the peace pipe and get back to the business of promoting BEEF on both sides of the border. As I have said before, I like going to Canada, I want to go back and see the country, I have been treated very well when I have been there, and I hope all you Canadians get back on your feet and keep producing the good Beef you have always produced.

"
 

PORKER

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With the HIGH Price's, the price of FUEL ,shipping cattle will come to a grinding halt.Feeding will take place everywhere and the big packing plants will become little local and regional plants in order to get some effienency and profits back in the beef industry.
Yup your right CattleCo ,before gas got higher than hell!)In my opinion the challenge facing the cattle feeding business is.....how in the hell can you pay 120.00 for a600+ calf and need a 95.00 fat price to break even and the board will not let you cover the deal??????
 

CattleCo

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Porker,
At least we agree on a few items. We both agree documentation of management practices are essential to add value. We just don't agree on how to do it and the value of certain systems out there. But, we are having a lot of fun dis-agreeing!! What do you think about the real opportunity in AG is for the small scale producer? Farmers Markets are going great guns, specialized markets are gaining enormous popularity. You do not need a $300,000.00 JD combine to play in this arena. You do not need to support Corporate Americas lifestyle!Yes it is WORK and can be a lot of manual work,but the rewards can be pretty good. What do you think? What crops/products do you see as growth markets in this arena?
 

PORKER

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I see the AMISH farmers in 10 years tripling their numbers and the standard farmer losing numbers.It says in the Bible the MEEK shall inherit the earth.
 

Jason

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PORKER said:
I see the AMISH farmers in 10 years tripling their numbers and the standard farmer losing numbers.It says in the Bible the MEEK shall inherit the earth.

Do you know what meek means?

Basically it means teachable. So the meek that inherit the Earth will be teachable people. God teaches us in many ways, and it is He that decides who is meek, but from a totally secular standpoint, those who learn lessons from todays events will be the ones who survive tomorrow.[/quote]
 

CattleCo

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That lets NCBA, FB, and R-Calf members out!!!!!!!!!!!! :lol:
 

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