• If you are having problems logging in please use the Contact Us in the lower right hand corner of the forum page for assistance.

Hackney's Comments

Sandhusker

Well-known member
Hackney Cattle Company / 402.680.4739
Hackney's comments from Monday, May 8, 2006.

*************************************************************************** The views expressed here are those of Walt Hackney and are not necessarily those of DTN, its management or employees. ***************************************************************************

FED CATTLE

Despite a great show of defiance, the Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas feedlots were finally brought to bay by the packers last week, and actually did no better job giving away cattle than the yards in the North, that started the slide at $2 under earlier in the week.

As a packer, making $150 per head or better, the cards are all aces for you and as we all should be aware, the balloons started bursting back in late February, March and through early April, when the massive numbers of formula and contract cattle gave packers the extreme edge in buyer independence. While the minority, the feedlots, sitting with April-May-June cash cattle, suddenly were like that little mouse sitting on a rock, in the last great act of defiance, giving the proverbial finger to an attacking eagle!

There should be no denial that the onslaught of March-April formulas and contracts have led to a large buildup of cattle, of which a large amount are calf-feds, that are contributing to the nearly $18 spread between the choice and selects.

Those low graders, being sacrificed on the grids, are literally taking the hide off the cattle feeders as a result of the spread.

FYI: Walt Hackney's practical insight into the livestock markets, also dictates that he spend much time in the production areas, buying/selling cattle, and periodically he cannot do his daily commentaries in a timely manner.
 

agman

Well-known member
Sandhusker said:
Hackney Cattle Company / 402.680.4739
Hackney's comments from Monday, May 8, 2006.

*************************************************************************** The views expressed here are those of Walt Hackney and are not necessarily those of DTN, its management or employees. ***************************************************************************

FED CATTLE

Despite a great show of defiance, the Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas feedlots were finally brought to bay by the packers last week, and actually did no better job giving away cattle than the yards in the North, that started the slide at $2 under earlier in the week.

As a packer, making $150 per head or better, the cards are all aces for you and as we all should be aware, the balloons started bursting back in late February, March and through early April, when the massive numbers of formula and contract cattle gave packers the extreme edge in buyer independence. While the minority, the feedlots, sitting with April-May-June cash cattle, suddenly were like that little mouse sitting on a rock, in the last great act of defiance, giving the proverbial finger to an attacking eagle!

There should be no denial that the onslaught of March-April formulas and contracts have led to a large buildup of cattle, of which a large amount are calf-feds, that are contributing to the nearly $18 spread between the choice and selects.

Those low graders, being sacrificed on the grids, are literally taking the hide off the cattle feeders as a result of the spread.

FYI: Walt Hackney's practical insight into the livestock markets, also dictates that he spend much time in the production areas, buying/selling cattle, and periodically he cannot do his daily commentaries in a timely manner.

Looks like he is really attuned to what is really going on!!!!! Give the world a break form this nonsense.
 

Sandhusker

Well-known member
agman said:
Sandhusker said:
Hackney Cattle Company / 402.680.4739
Hackney's comments from Monday, May 8, 2006.

*************************************************************************** The views expressed here are those of Walt Hackney and are not necessarily those of DTN, its management or employees. ***************************************************************************

FED CATTLE

Despite a great show of defiance, the Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas feedlots were finally brought to bay by the packers last week, and actually did no better job giving away cattle than the yards in the North, that started the slide at $2 under earlier in the week.

As a packer, making $150 per head or better, the cards are all aces for you and as we all should be aware, the balloons started bursting back in late February, March and through early April, when the massive numbers of formula and contract cattle gave packers the extreme edge in buyer independence. While the minority, the feedlots, sitting with April-May-June cash cattle, suddenly were like that little mouse sitting on a rock, in the last great act of defiance, giving the proverbial finger to an attacking eagle!

There should be no denial that the onslaught of March-April formulas and contracts have led to a large buildup of cattle, of which a large amount are calf-feds, that are contributing to the nearly $18 spread between the choice and selects.

Those low graders, being sacrificed on the grids, are literally taking the hide off the cattle feeders as a result of the spread.

FYI: Walt Hackney's practical insight into the livestock markets, also dictates that he spend much time in the production areas, buying/selling cattle, and periodically he cannot do his daily commentaries in a timely manner.

Looks like he is really attuned to what is really going on!!!!! Give the world a break form this nonsense.

If you don't like Walt, you can always hang with Dittmer, or excuse me, any member of the staff of the AFF. :roll: :lol: :lol: :lol:
 

agman

Well-known member
Sandhusker said:
agman said:
Sandhusker said:
Hackney Cattle Company / 402.680.4739
Hackney's comments from Monday, May 8, 2006.

*************************************************************************** The views expressed here are those of Walt Hackney and are not necessarily those of DTN, its management or employees. ***************************************************************************

FED CATTLE

Despite a great show of defiance, the Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas feedlots were finally brought to bay by the packers last week, and actually did no better job giving away cattle than the yards in the North, that started the slide at $2 under earlier in the week.

As a packer, making $150 per head or better, the cards are all aces for you and as we all should be aware, the balloons started bursting back in late February, March and through early April, when the massive numbers of formula and contract cattle gave packers the extreme edge in buyer independence. While the minority, the feedlots, sitting with April-May-June cash cattle, suddenly were like that little mouse sitting on a rock, in the last great act of defiance, giving the proverbial finger to an attacking eagle!

There should be no denial that the onslaught of March-April formulas and contracts have led to a large buildup of cattle, of which a large amount are calf-feds, that are contributing to the nearly $18 spread between the choice and selects.

Those low graders, being sacrificed on the grids, are literally taking the hide off the cattle feeders as a result of the spread.

FYI: Walt Hackney's practical insight into the livestock markets, also dictates that he spend much time in the production areas, buying/selling cattle, and periodically he cannot do his daily commentaries in a timely manner.

Looks like he is really attuned to what is really going on!!!!! Give the world a break form this nonsense.


If you don't like Walt, you can always hang with Dittmer, or excuse me, any member of the staff of the AFF. :roll: :lol: :lol: :lol:

It is not a quesion of liking him, it is a question of fact versus fiction. You know so very little you obvioulsy cannot determine the problem with his comments and conclusions.
 

agman

Well-known member
HAY MAKER said:
OK,agman your version ?...............good luck

For starters packer margins are not $150 in the black. That is a total joke and anyone who really knows the cost structure would know that. Also, alot to meat is being sold at lower prices outside the three week reporting window. Thus the daily price is overstating derived value. The USDA only reports trade within a 21 day shipping window. Alot of product is being sold through June and into the July 4th period at lower prices. The USDA does not report those sales.

Cattle numbers are the same whether there are no formula or marketing agreements or all cattle are on a formula. It is the total supply that matters. The build up is the result of a large contra-seasonal shift in supplies due to larger than normal fourth quarter placements versus third quarter placements. The abnormal shift in th placements exceed 650,000 head. In addition, lower than required marketings compounded the buildup. By July 1 that buildup will approach 950,000 head. Remember, we do not have record weights because producers are marketing on schedule, some are but many are not.

Record carcass weights which we have now do not just happen, they are a product of the economics of feeding. Cheap grain, high breakevens and a poor fat-feeder replacement swap has always led to over feeding. Carcass weights have already made their seasonal low and they are headed higher. What is happening is a replication of previous patterns when similar conditions were present.

The decline to-date has been 19% from the winter peak of $96/cwt. In years with a severe backlog, such as this year, the break can ultimately lead to a price decline approaching 24%. If you expect anything less given the record supply buildup and level of competing meats you are in for a surprise.

Now what is it that you care to refute Haymaker? You are already indebted to me. I expect a full bottle of the good stuff in restitution and nothing less!!!! Would you care to make another bet on the outcome of SD case on Appeal? Double or nothing is the offer!!!
 

HAY MAKER

Well-known member
agman said:
HAY MAKER said:
OK,agman your version ?...............good luck

For starters packer margins are not $150 in the black. That is a total joke and anyone who really knows the cost structure would know that. Also, alot to meat is being sold at lower prices outside the three week reporting window. Thus the daily price is overstating derived value. The USDA only reports trade within a 21 day shipping window. Alot of product is being sold through June and into the July 4th period at lower prices. The USDA does not report those sales.

Cattle numbers are the same whether there are no formula or marketing agreements or all cattle are on a formula. It is the total supply that matters. The build up is the result of a large contra-seasonal shift in supplies due to larger than normal fourth quarter placements versus third quarter placements. The abnormal shift in th placements exceed 650,000 head. In addition, lower than required marketings compounded the buildup. By July 1 that buildup will approach 950,000 head. Remember, we do not have record weights because producers are marketing on schedule, some are but many are not.

Record carcass weights which we have now do not just happen, they are a product of the economics of feeding. Cheap grain, high breakevens and a poor fat-feeder replacement swap has always led to over feeding. Carcass weights have already made their seasonal low and they are headed higher. What is happening is a replication of previous patterns when similar conditions were present.

The decline to-date has been 19% from the winter peak of $96/cwt. In years with a severe backlog, such as this year, the break can ultimately lead to a price decline approaching 24%. If you expect anything less given the record supply buildup and level of competing meats you are in for a surprise.

Now what is it that you care to refute Haymaker? You are already indebted to me. I expect a full bottle of the good stuff in restitution and nothing less!!!! Would you care to make another bet on the outcome of SD case on Appeal? Double or nothing is the offer!!!

Agman, are you saying SD case gets thrown out on appeal ? careful boy,there were shades of grey in the Pickett trial,the SD case is just a matter of records and math.
I wont refute your assessment of this years market,but I would add two wild cards, exports & weather,the rains have been timely in most of TX & the southwest,this may temper the back log,exports are anybodys guess,also the bird flu rumors may slow consumer spending of competing meats................good luck
 

agman

Well-known member
HAY MAKER said:
agman said:
HAY MAKER said:
OK,agman your version ?...............good luck

For starters packer margins are not $150 in the black. That is a total joke and anyone who really knows the cost structure would know that. Also, alot to meat is being sold at lower prices outside the three week reporting window. Thus the daily price is overstating derived value. The USDA only reports trade within a 21 day shipping window. Alot of product is being sold through June and into the July 4th period at lower prices. The USDA does not report those sales.

Cattle numbers are the same whether there are no formula or marketing agreements or all cattle are on a formula. It is the total supply that matters. The build up is the result of a large contra-seasonal shift in supplies due to larger than normal fourth quarter placements versus third quarter placements. The abnormal shift in th placements exceed 650,000 head. In addition, lower than required marketings compounded the buildup. By July 1 that buildup will approach 950,000 head. Remember, we do not have record weights because producers are marketing on schedule, some are but many are not.

Record carcass weights which we have now do not just happen, they are a product of the economics of feeding. Cheap grain, high breakevens and a poor fat-feeder replacement swap has always led to over feeding. Carcass weights have already made their seasonal low and they are headed higher. What is happening is a replication of previous patterns when similar conditions were present.

The decline to-date has been 19% from the winter peak of $96/cwt. In years with a severe backlog, such as this year, the break can ultimately lead to a price decline approaching 24%. If you expect anything less given the record supply buildup and level of competing meats you are in for a surprise.

Now what is it that you care to refute Haymaker? You are already indebted to me. I expect a full bottle of the good stuff in restitution and nothing less!!!! Would you care to make another bet on the outcome of SD case on Appeal? Double or nothing is the offer!!!

Agman, are you saying SD case gets thrown out on appeal ? careful boy,there were shades of grey in the Pickett trial,the SD case is just a matter of records and math.
I wont refute your assessment of this years market,but I would add two wild cards, exports & weather,the rains have been timely in most of TX & the southwest,this may temper the back log,exports are anybodys guess,also the bird flu rumors may slow consumer spending of competing meats................good luck

The only way was those colored glasses you looked through when you echoed others views on the Pickett case.

The SD case is alot more complicated than records and simple math. If the SD case gets to the Appellate Court it is a slam dunk based on case law, as in the Pickett case, and the lack of evidence presented at trial that the jury verdict will be dismissed. Double or nothing; your call!!!!

It was the lack of moisture in the wheat grazing areas that forced the larger than normal placements.
 

Econ101

Well-known member
agman said:
HAY MAKER said:
agman said:
For starters packer margins are not $150 in the black. That is a total joke and anyone who really knows the cost structure would know that. Also, alot to meat is being sold at lower prices outside the three week reporting window. Thus the daily price is overstating derived value. The USDA only reports trade within a 21 day shipping window. Alot of product is being sold through June and into the July 4th period at lower prices. The USDA does not report those sales.

Cattle numbers are the same whether there are no formula or marketing agreements or all cattle are on a formula. It is the total supply that matters. The build up is the result of a large contra-seasonal shift in supplies due to larger than normal fourth quarter placements versus third quarter placements. The abnormal shift in th placements exceed 650,000 head. In addition, lower than required marketings compounded the buildup. By July 1 that buildup will approach 950,000 head. Remember, we do not have record weights because producers are marketing on schedule, some are but many are not.

Record carcass weights which we have now do not just happen, they are a product of the economics of feeding. Cheap grain, high breakevens and a poor fat-feeder replacement swap has always led to over feeding. Carcass weights have already made their seasonal low and they are headed higher. What is happening is a replication of previous patterns when similar conditions were present.

The decline to-date has been 19% from the winter peak of $96/cwt. In years with a severe backlog, such as this year, the break can ultimately lead to a price decline approaching 24%. If you expect anything less given the record supply buildup and level of competing meats you are in for a surprise.

Now what is it that you care to refute Haymaker? You are already indebted to me. I expect a full bottle of the good stuff in restitution and nothing less!!!! Would you care to make another bet on the outcome of SD case on Appeal? Double or nothing is the offer!!!

Agman, are you saying SD case gets thrown out on appeal ? careful boy,there were shades of grey in the Pickett trial,the SD case is just a matter of records and math.
I wont refute your assessment of this years market,but I would add two wild cards, exports & weather,the rains have been timely in most of TX & the southwest,this may temper the back log,exports are anybodys guess,also the bird flu rumors may slow consumer spending of competing meats................good luck

The only ray was those colored glasses you throgh when you echoed others views on the Pickett case.

The SD case is alot more complicated than records and simple math. If the SD case gets to the Appellate Court it is a slam dunk based on case law, as in the Pickett case, and the lack of evidence presented at trial that the jury verdict will be dismissed. Double or nothing; your call!!!!

It was the lack of moisture in the wheat grazing areas that forced the larger than normal placements.

The way these federal judges are reinterpreting the law for the benefit of the bribe paying corporations is just a shame, Agman. You don't need to be so confident that we have a complete Mexicanization of our court system too.

What do you mean if the SD case gets to the Appellate Court, has the fix already been put in?
 

HAY MAKER

Well-known member
Agman......The SD case is alot more complicated than records and simple math. If the SD case gets to the Appellate Court it is a slam dunk based on case law, as in the Pickett case, and the lack of evidence presented at trial that the jury verdict will be dismissed. Double or nothing; your call!!!!

First, my bet to you on the pickett trial was............good whiskey,Alamo plaza,Theodore Roosevelt saloon,all you can drink,I lost that bet and stand willing to pay up when you fly that corvette down here.
Now on your gracious offer of the S Dakota case,after some thought ,no I decline,sadly I believe you may be right,they could very well find another "strom" agman you chip away at your credibility backing these people that use bought off officials to under mine the judicial system......................good luck

PS You must have quite an imagination to conclude,The operating margin index for cattle packers was at a plus $55.50 per head.
plus what $200 ?
 

Brad S

Well-known member
The decline to-date has been 19% from the winter peak of $96/cwt. In years with a severe backlog, such as this year, the break can ultimately lead to a price decline approaching 24%. If you expect anything less given the record supply buildup and level of competing meats you are in for a surprise.




"thankyou sir may I have another"
(animal house referance from when the pledges are getting struck with the cricket paddle)
 

agman

Well-known member
Econ101 said:
agman said:
HAY MAKER said:
Agman, are you saying SD case gets thrown out on appeal ? careful boy,there were shades of grey in the Pickett trial,the SD case is just a matter of records and math.
I wont refute your assessment of this years market,but I would add two wild cards, exports & weather,the rains have been timely in most of TX & the southwest,this may temper the back log,exports are anybodys guess,also the bird flu rumors may slow consumer spending of competing meats................good luck

The only ray was those colored glasses you throgh when you echoed others views on the Pickett case.

The SD case is alot more complicated than records and simple math. If the SD case gets to the Appellate Court it is a slam dunk based on case law, as in the Pickett case, and the lack of evidence presented at trial that the jury verdict will be dismissed. Double or nothing; your call!!!!

It was the lack of moisture in the wheat grazing areas that forced the larger than normal placements.

The way these federal judges are reinterpreting the law for the benefit of the bribe paying corporations is just a shame, Agman. You don't need to be so confident that we have a complete Mexicanization of our court system too.

What do you mean if the SD case gets to the Appellate Court, has the fix already been put in?

There is no fix, just facts which are beyond your comprehension. The 8Th circuit has already ruled previously on two cases which make this case a slam dunk on appeal. Given your limited legal knowledge I would not exepect you to know that. If you ever actaully went to law school you should ask for a refund. You learned nothing of value to anyone. I bet you aced the "False and Unsupported Accusations Test" though.
 

Econ101

Well-known member
agman said:
Econ101 said:
agman said:
The only ray was those colored glasses you throgh when you echoed others views on the Pickett case.

The SD case is alot more complicated than records and simple math. If the SD case gets to the Appellate Court it is a slam dunk based on case law, as in the Pickett case, and the lack of evidence presented at trial that the jury verdict will be dismissed. Double or nothing; your call!!!!

It was the lack of moisture in the wheat grazing areas that forced the larger than normal placements.

The way these federal judges are reinterpreting the law for the benefit of the bribe paying corporations is just a shame, Agman. You don't need to be so confident that we have a complete Mexicanization of our court system too.

What do you mean if the SD case gets to the Appellate Court, has the fix already been put in?

There is no fix, just facts which are beyond your comprehension. The 8Th circuit has already ruled previously on two cases which make this case a slam dunk on appeal. Given your limited legal knowledge I would not exepect you to know that. If you ever actaully went to law school you should ask for a refund. You learned nothing of value to anyone. I bet you aced the "False and Unsupported Accusations Test" though.

With the number of appointments to the federal courts by the last two bribe taking administrations, I wouldn't doubt that you are right, Agman. It is part of the problem that the abuse of power brings.

As I said before, the crassness of the London and Pickett decisions and the inability of the judicial system to stand up to this type of fascism is very concerning.

As the Mrs. Johanns once told me, we don't have to worry about the terrorism in the world, we will end up doing it to ourselves.
 
Top