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Whitewing

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Oil Prices at $200 a Barrel? Some Think It's Coming

Signs that crude futures may hit much higher levels are converging, say oil traders and analysts, some of whom predict that Brent crude could reach $200 a barrel within the next 12 months.

The biggest issue, they say, is that global crude supply remains uncommonly tight — a scenario that’s unlikely to be alleviated any time soon.

Even though Libya’s oil has largely returned online after the political disruptions that took it off the market last year, and Saudi Arabia is generating its highest output in three decades, the available crude is just barely meeting demand. The summer driving season in the U.S., which begins in April, could put further pressure on prices.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/46809606
 

Steve

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Steve said:
Just some quick searches based on WW's opinions......

Quote:
Recession: We Are Hitting an Economic Growth Ceiling Caused by Limited Cheap Oil

if everything stayed the same.. he would be right.. and we would be typing a letter to each other and waiting days for a reply... well weeks if the horse was slow..


technology and investment will come into play at any economic price point for crude..

at $10 the suadis will keep pumping... but few others...

between $65 and $100 oil and gas exploration will continue at a fast pace..

somewhere around $125 congress and the President panic...

at $150. the public demands action...

by $175.. we would be putting a national effort into getting gas.. (aka Alaska pipeline projects).

by $200 several other sources of fuel would be viable..

would it hurt our economy.. yes.. but if the President takes action now or soon .. and puts in the right energy policy that balances the needs of the economy with strategic investment in our own resources.. the world oil price would not hurt our economy in fact.. it would help our economy..

if we exploited our resources and dollar policy,... high world oil prices would actually help our economy..

but we just wasted four years with a clueless community organizer..


I would rather walk then waste four more on the same guy...

so far the president has panicked... and congress is starting to react...

we are right on schedule...
 

Whitewing

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For the record, I am strongly against releasing oil from the SPR for any other than reason than it was intended. Attempting to control or influence world prices is not one of those reasons.
 

Steve

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if you will note the $175 price-point..

by $175.. we would be putting a national effort into getting gas.. (aka Alaska pipeline projects).

combined with the $125 price point..

somewhere around $125 ,.... the President panics...

BOULDER CITY, Nev. — President Barack Obama will direct federal agencies to fast-track an oil pipeline from Oklahoma to Texas,

Obama’s directive, to be announced Thursday, also would apply to other pipelines that alleviate choke points. It will be issued along with an executive order requiring agencies to make faster decisions on other infrastructure projects.

while three years overdue.. Obama is getting the message..


but you have to wonder who is sending that message..

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11378885/1/oil-still-too-strong-to-sell-opinion.html
 

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And this oil would represent what % of the world market--where it would be sold?
 

Steve

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Whitewing said:
For the record, I am strongly against releasing oil from the SPR for any other than reason than it was intended. Attempting to control or influence world prices is not one of those reasons.

I don't agree with releasing it either for political purposes..

but we should only buy to support a price structure (below $65)

limit buying to to stabilize price spikes (above $100-$125)

and sell only in pre-agreed price set points.. (above 9$125-$150)

our current SPR policy of political whim is as bad as printing $ that cause price increase in crude..
 

Steve

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In 1996 the Republican-controlled Congress required two separate sales of reserve oil to raise money to reduce the federal budget deficit.

The reserve is at a historically high level of 727 million barrels.

last years (2011) release ...

The White House points out that the 30 million barrels allotted for release next month make up less than 5 percent of the total reserve.

The current inventory is displayed on the SPR's website. As of February 29, 2012, the inventory was 695.9 million barrels

for some reason we are 31.1 million gallons short in less then a year...



Obama sold 30 million.. bought none and lost 1.1 million gallons?

On August 17, 2005, the SPR reached its goal of 700 million barrels (110,000,000 m3), or about 96% of its now-increased 727-million-barrel (115,600,000 m3) capacity. Approximately 60% of the crude oil in the reserve is the less desirable sour (high sulfur content) variety. The oil delivered to the reserve is "royalty-in-kind" oil—royalties owed to the U.S. government by operators who acquire leases on the federally owned Outer Continental Shelf in the Gulf of Mexico. These royalties were previously collected as cash, but in 1998 the government began testing the effectiveness of collecting royalties "in kind" - or in other words, acquiring the crude oil itself. This mechanism was adopted when refilling the SPR began, and once filling is completed, revenues from the sale of future royalties will be paid into the federal treasury.

On April 25, 2006, President Bush announced a temporary halt to petroleum deposits to the SPR as part of a four point program to alleviate high fuel prices.[citation needed]

On January 23, 2007, President Bush suggested in his State of the Union speech that Congress should approve expansion of the current reserve capacity to twice its current level.[10]

In April 2008, Speaker Pelosi called on President Bush to suspend purchases of oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) temporarily.

On May 12, 2008, Rep. Peter Welch (D, Vermont) and 63 co-sponsors introduced the Strategic Petroleum Reserve Fill Suspension and Consumer Protection Act bill (H.R.6022), to suspend the acquisition of petroleum for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.[11]

On May 16, 2008, the U.S. Department of Energy said it would halt all deliveries to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve sometime in July. This announcement came days after Congress voted to direct the Bush administration to do the same. The U.S. Department of Energy did not state when the shipments would resume.[12]

On May 19, 2008, President Bush signed the Act passed by the Congress, which he previously opposed.[13]

On January 2, 2009, the U.S. Energy Department said that it would begin buying approximately 12,000,000 barrels (1,900,000 m3) of crude oil to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, replenishing supplies that were sold after hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. The purchase will be funded by the roughly $600 million received in 2005 from the emergency sales.
 

Whitewing

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Steve said:
Whitewing said:
For the record, I am strongly against releasing oil from the SPR for any other than reason than it was intended. Attempting to control or influence world prices is not one of those reasons.

I don't agree with releasing it either for political purposes..

but we should only buy to support a price structure (below $65)

limit buying to to stabilize price spikes (above $100-$125)

and sell only in pre-agreed price set points.. (above 9$125-$150)

our current SPR policy of political whim is as bad as printing $ that cause price increase in crude..

At this point in the history of the SPR, I would recommend something of a dollar cost averaging strategy. I say at this point in its history because I do not recall the total capacity of the reserve.

Anyway, with a dollar cost averaging strategy, the gubmint would buy X$ per month or whatever timeframe. That way, when prices were high we would be buying fewer barrels.....when low, more barrels.

My company did a lot of work over the years at the SPR....Big Hill, Bryan Mound, St. James, etc. At first I considered it a total gubmint boondoggle but later came to appreciate its value in times of national emergency.

The reelection of the Messiah is not such a national emergency.
 

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Whitewing said:
Steve said:
Whitewing said:
For the record, I am strongly against releasing oil from the SPR for any other than reason than it was intended. Attempting to control or influence world prices is not one of those reasons.

I don't agree with releasing it either for political purposes..

but we should only buy to support a price structure (below $65)

limit buying to to stabilize price spikes (above $100-$125)

and sell only in pre-agreed price set points.. (above 9$125-$150)

our current SPR policy of political whim is as bad as printing $ that cause price increase in crude..

At this point in the history of the SPR, I would recommend something of a dollar cost averaging strategy. I say at this point in its history because I do not recall the total capacity of the reserve.

Anyway, with a dollar cost averaging strategy, the gubmint would buy X$ per month or whatever timeframe. That way, when prices were high we would be buying fewer barrels.....when low, more barrels.

My company did a lot of work over the years at the SPR....Big Hill, Bryan Mound, St. James, etc. At first I considered it a total gubmint boondoggle but later came to appreciate its value in times of national emergency.

The reelection of the Messiah is not such a national emergency.

current capacity is about 730 million barrel,.. it was handed to Obama full... and the Democrats in congress had stopped purchasing more oil to refill it..

it appears the $600 million set aside from Bush's SPR sales have been squandered.. and the 12 million barrels Obama was allocated to be purchased to replace the 30 million barrels he sold hasn't happened..

leaving it 31.1 million barrels short
 

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Back in the early 1990s my company was hired to evaluate vapor pressures of the oil that was being stored in the various salt dome caverns.

When we came back with our results, there was PANIC. Based on what we told them, they would violate all sorts of vapor release rules if they tried to pump the oil to the surface for storage in floating roof tanks. Some of the stored oil would probably blow the roofs off!

Anyway, I recall going to a DOE meeting in New Orleans where an EXPERT they had hired gave a presentation on our results. In a nutshell, he blamed sampling and analytical errors for the scary numbers. Now, this expert had never so much as phoned and spoken to me, much less visited my laboratory. I was livid.

The DOE rep told me to relax....this is how the gubmint does things he explained.....they get two experts (my lab and the assclown giving the presentation) to give 180 degree opposing viewpoints and then they can claim the experts were at odds so they were not sure who to believe.

To make a long story short, the assclown was wrong and we were right. :D

In the end we analyzed oil from every cavern and every storage tank in the SPR inventory on a multiyear contract.
 

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