Oldtimer said:Several of the articles I read said it was all because of the dysfunctional Congress not being able to come to agreement- leaving the fears of going over the cliff and back into the (worldwide) recession many folks think will come about if Congress can't get their sh*t together and do their job....
Some were even calling the Congressmen the "Grinchs" that stole this years Christmas...
People are taking the advice of some of the economists- and hanging onto their money...
Oldtimer said:Several of the articles I read said it was all because of the dysfunctional Congress not being able to come to agreement- leaving the fears of going over the cliff and back into the (worldwide) recession many folks think will come about if Congress can't get their sh*t together and do their job....
Some were even calling the Congressmen the "Grinchs" that stole this years Christmas...
People are taking the advice of some of the economists- and hanging onto their money...
Whitewing said:Oldtimer said:Several of the articles I read said it was all because of the dysfunctional Congress not being able to come to agreement- leaving the fears of going over the cliff and back into the (worldwide) recession many folks think will come about if Congress can't get their sh*t together and do their job....
Some were even calling the Congressmen the "Grinchs" that stole this years Christmas...
People are taking the advice of some of the economists- and hanging onto their money...
:lol: People aren't spending money they don't have because of a dysfunctional Congress. :lol: God that's rich.
Do you actually write such crap with a straight face? And just so I can enjoy the musings of an assclown who would write such a thing, could you please link to ONE of the several articles you've read? Just one.
Mike said:Whitewing said:Oldtimer said:Several of the articles I read said it was all because of the dysfunctional Congress not being able to come to agreement- leaving the fears of going over the cliff and back into the (worldwide) recession many folks think will come about if Congress can't get their sh*t together and do their job....
Some were even calling the Congressmen the "Grinchs" that stole this years Christmas...
People are taking the advice of some of the economists- and hanging onto their money...
:lol: People aren't spending money they don't have because of a dysfunctional Congress. :lol: God that's rich.
Do you actually write such crap with a straight face? And just so I can enjoy the musings of an assclown who would write such a thing, could you please link to ONE of the several articles you've read? Just one.
Buckwheat's budget(s) get a grand total of 3 votes yet it's the fault of Congress we don't have one? :lol: :lol:
What a tool!
Whitewing said:Mike said:Whitewing said::lol: People aren't spending money they don't have because of a dysfunctional Congress. :lol: God that's rich.
Do you actually write such crap with a straight face? And just so I can enjoy the musings of an assclown who would write such a thing, could you please link to ONE of the several articles you've read? Just one.
Buckwheat's budget(s) get a grand total of 3 votes yet it's the fault of Congress we don't have one? :lol: :lol:
What a tool!
Well, he's Top Dawg ya know, true government leadership. :lol:
Fiscal cliff fears jolt consumer confidence
By Jose Pagliery @CNNMoney December 27, 2012: 10:46 AM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Consumer confidence took a dive in December, dragged down by fears that the country will indeed fall over the fiscal cliff.
The closely watched Consumer Confidence Index, which measures the American public's sentiments every month, sank six points to 65.1. That signals a major turnaround since October, when the index reached a four-year high of 73.1.
The drop in consumer confidence is also the largest since the nation's credit rating was lowered in August of last year.
The business research firm behind the index, The Conference Board, blamed the continuing failure by the nation's leaders to reach a deal and avert tax hikes and spending cuts from kicking in automatically next week.
"The sudden turnaround in expectations was most likely caused by uncertainty surrounding the oncoming fiscal cliff," said Lynn Franco, the firm's director of economic indicators.
It's no surprise that the fiscal cliff could impact consumers. The White House issued a report last month warning that uncertainty about taxes could hurt holiday sales this year and consumer spending in 2013.
The top U.S. economist at the bank Barclays Capital, Dean Maki, said the report showed consumers "recognize that they face a large potential drop in income if no agreement on the fiscal cliff is reached soon."
Thursday's index report also showed the nation's outlook on the job market is grim, with a greater portion of people are expecting fewer jobs in the months ahead.
The White House issued a report last month warning that uncertainty about taxes could hurt holiday sales this year and consumer spending in 2013.
Sixty-seven percent of Americans polled in the online survey said the impending "fiscal cliff" was not affecting their holiday spending.
Oldtimer said:Several of the articles I read said it was all because of the dysfunctional Congress not being able to come to agreement- leaving the fears of going over the cliff and back into the (worldwide) recession many folks think will come about if Congress can't get their sh*t together and do their job....
Some were even calling the Congressmen the "Grinchs" that stole this years Christmas...
People are taking the advice of some of the economists- and hanging onto their money...
hypocritexposer said:Sixty-seven percent of Americans polled in the online survey said the impending "fiscal cliff" was not affecting their holiday spending.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/27/us-usa-fiscal-poll-idUSBRE8BQ0J620121227
Oldtimer said:Several of the articles I read said it was all because of the dysfunctional Congress not being able to come to agreement- leaving the fears of going over the cliff and back into the (worldwide) recession many folks think will come about if Congress can't get their sh*t together and do their job....
Some were even calling the Congressmen the "Grinchs" that stole this years Christmas...
People are taking the advice of some of the economists- and hanging onto their money...
Holiday Shopping Season Disappoints: Causes And Consequences
Dec 28, 2012 | by Colin Lokey | include: XLY
The media has thus far opted to blame a combination of factors for the slump although, as Lance Roberts of StreeTalkLive recently observed,
The excuses for the weakness... [are] just as much off the mark as the original analysts' [sales growth] estimates.
The mainstream media's culprits include superstorm Sandy, the fiscal cliff debate, and the Connecticut school shooting. While these events are tragic, ridiculous, and downright deplorable respectively, their connection to holiday shopping is tenuous at best.
Why not look instead at measures which are directly related to consumers' ability to spend money? Real disposable personal income growth for instance has been flat since mid-2010 and has recently begun to trend downward. Consider also that according to Bloomberg and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, private industry wage growth which had run at well above 2% for decades, fell below 2% in early 2009 and hasn't been back above 2% since:
![]()
Source: Bloomberg, BLS
Similarly, in the above-cited piece by Lance Roberts, the following graph appears which shows the annual change in retail sales plotted against the annual change in wages and salaries. Not surprisingly, the two look to be correlated:
![]()
Source: StreetTalkLive
Consider also that as of September, a record 47.7 million Americans were living in poverty. As Zerohedge noted,
...in August and September, over three times as many foodstamp recipients were added to the economy as jobs.
Given the above, it should come as no surprise that the holiday shopping season is shaping up to be a disappointment -- Americans simply don't have much disposable income. Target (TGT) and Macy's (M) report same-store sales next week, and while the numbers could surprise to the upside, it is my contention that investors should bet against the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) going forward. Dismal holiday sales should lead to weaker than expected topline growth for the quarter. Additionally, deep discounting should pinch margins, cutting into any profits retailers do manage to squeeze out. Lastly, note that the XLY recently hit an all-time high so it may be due for a pullback regardless.