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Illinois Crops going down hill!

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agman

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Denny said:
agman said:
CattleCo said:
Just reported 55% of Illinois Corn and Soybeans in poor condition.......maybe $3.00+ Corn is coming sooner than we think! :D
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Illinois produces approximately 20% of the nations corn. Conditions in Illinois are similar but not nearly as severe as in 1988 when their corn yields declined 50% and their bean yields declined 30%. Additionally, the balance of the country has experienced conditions much less severe than in 1988.

The market has built in a 10.3 corn crop at current prices. Such a crop would reduce the carryout from 2.14 billion bushels to approximately 1.6 billion bushels.

Some traders are beginning to talk of the possibility of yields as low as 136 bushels per acre which would equate to a 10.0 billion bushel crop. Even a crop of that size would allow ending stocks at the end of the new marketing year to be at 1.3 billion bushels. At that ending stocks level the December corn futures would be hard pressed to exceed $2.83 per bushel.

Question ?How will that affect feeder cattle prices?
 

agman

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Denny said:
agman said:
CattleCo said:
Just reported 55% of Illinois Corn and Soybeans in poor condition.......maybe $3.00+ Corn is coming sooner than we think! :D
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Illinois produces approximately 20% of the nations corn. Conditions in Illinois are similar but not nearly as severe as in 1988 when their corn yields declined 50% and their bean yields declined 30%. Additionally, the balance of the country has experienced conditions much less severe than in 1988.

The market has built in a 10.3 corn crop at current prices. Such a crop would reduce the carryout from 2.14 billion bushels to approximately 1.6 billion bushels.

Some traders are beginning to talk of the possibility of yields as low as 136 bushels per acre which would equate to a 10.0 billion bushel crop. Even a crop of that size would allow ending stocks at the end of the new marketing year to be at 1.3 billion bushels. At that ending stocks level the December corn futures would be hard pressed to exceed $2.83 per bushel.
 

mwj

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CattleCo said:
Private crop estimates. Private crop estimates are starting to roll out ahead of USDA's first survey-based estimate of the U.S. corn and soybean crops for 2005. Of course there are more than just corn and soybean production figures out on Aug. 12 from USDA, but those are the two numbers that will garner most of the attention. Traders will be keying in on what USDA does relative to states like Illinois suffering from drought conditions.

Sandy,
We will know something soon: Rust spores in the soybeans found in Champaign CO Illinois( they do not think they are Asian Spores??).......that is the next county over and the home of the University of IL.

Cattle Co
I am in the next county over (Piatt) , are we nieghbors??????? :shock:
 

katrina

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Well that and we get a letter from Felller and Sons feedyard. Always fun to read and Mr.Feller keeps pretty good tabs on the grain and that is what he is saying too.
Boyd in Fremont has been very good to us, so I guess I would tend to believe him...
 

feeder

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I believe you are right about the bins full. Around here, the local elevaters can't move out enough corn to make room for the new crop. The ethanol plants are full too.
 

agman

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feeder said:
I believe you are right about the bins full. Around here, the local elevaters can't move out enough corn to make room for the new crop. The ethanol plants are full too.

Cash basis values remain weak which is a symptom of large cash grain supplies. When futures rallied the cash basis weakened. In a truely tight supply driven market the cash market will advance faster than the futures, thus cash basis levels will strengthen. That did not occur on the recent advance.
 

CattleCo

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If all this grain in NE and IA is true.....we need a ass killing frost in IA and NE. September 10th! That will take care of this "bins are full" deal! If NE and IA have all this grain.....we apparently are not feeding all these cattle we are told we have on feed. Therefore the Heifer replacement build up may be bigger than 4-5 %???? A lot of these so called "experts" are not adding 1+1 and getting the correct answer. The good news we only have 60 days or so to find out! I am sure all these grain trader/cattle trader experts will say "they" were right all along! :roll:
 

katrina

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From what I understand there is so much corn from last year that there is a shortage of bin room for new corn...Anyone else hear that...The farmers in nebraska refused to sell corn for under $2.00, which makes sense to me because us being dry land farmer can not sell corn for less than two buck and make a profit, so I can't see how they could in eastern Ne, as I'm sure there cost to operate are way more than us small timers..
 

CattleCo

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I bet a early frost and continued drought will shrink it!! :roll: But, these commodity brokers know it all!! :roll: :roll:


Schwieterman Marketing, L.L.C.

1616 Kansas Avenue

Garden City, KS 67846
Corn Crop No Longer Shrinking
Next Friday is the August crop report. The supply and demand numbers we get next week will be critical. It will be the USDA’s first objective look and the corn and soybeans crops, meaning we should get a decent snapshot of where the crops were at in the first part of August. Early industry guesses are putting corn production at 10.3 bil bu and soybeans at about 2.82 bil bu. The corn production figure is certainly friendly, though not necessarily bullish. It would result in a large cut in ending stocks, but unless demand changes, there will still be plenty of corn. The soybean figure is definitely friendly and very close to being extremely bullish. It would only take a small increase in demand to get ending stocks below 125 mil bu.



Weather is still a factor, but in the midst of all this technical selling pressure I

t is being ignored. Crop conditions will likely decline for both the corn and soybeans. This should be expected because conditions decline seasonally, but also because rain missed the bulk of the Corn Belt this week.
 

Denny

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Every year there is somewhere that has a bad crop ALL my corn froze last year and did'nt yield any gold nuggets.My corn this year is looking the best it ever has but it could freeze again.But a killing frost does'nt really scare me it wont freeze in corn country until harvest.
 

Jason

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katrina said:
We are dried out and will chop our for silage again this year. This is the third year in a row that we have had drought conditions....

I know you would have prefered a grain corn crop, but having the silage is just about as good especially if corn stays cheap. Feed some calves that are starting to cheapen up and make the cash there.

I am cutting a pretty fair barley crop for feed as the wild oats flushed and I have another crop that is clean. Feed is cheap here for a change, but my own feed is still cheaper. Maybe I can start a stockpile of feed to carry over for the next drought.
 

whiteface

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Awesome advice, Jason and I have definatly taken it. Big problem where I live and likely you too is that in Cen. Alta we're all so damn spoiled living in the bread basket and rarely faceing drought or hail or grasshoppers has driven the price of land through the roof and relaxed too many of us to the point that we don't stockpile enough feed for years like we had in 2002. The price of hay damn near wiped me out that year and I swear to all of you it will never happen again that I'll be caught without a little feed reserve...or a little cash reserve from the sale of exess feed that is produced on occassion. So sorry to hear of some of your failing crops, I haven't been there a lot but I assure you we were there once a few years back and I know how not pretty it is. Good luck to you all and have a good day!
 

katrina

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Yes Jason... Will take the silage any day.. We fed silage to the cows till we went to grass last spring...Would like to buy some calves this year to feed. I really like that. But son #1 will be in high school so may not have my good help to feed before school.. Plus calves have to be not as high a price for us to buy which is a double edge sword, because we sell calves too....
 

Jason

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Drought is a funny thing. Your perception of it is affected by where you live.

2002 in Central Alberta made headlines beyond belief, but many got 40 bushel crops and the price hit $4 for barley. 2000 and 2001 then again in 2003 our yield was 0.

I remember reading an article several years back where a guy in Texas was complaining about how a 130 bushel corn crop was going to hurt so bad.

The more a person is used to makes drought seem to be severe if they get less than a bumper crop.

My uncle one year from Vegreville said how short the wheat was. I asked if it made his knee...it did... mid thigh.. it did.. waist .. it did, and he is taller tham I am. A waist high wheat crop is awesome by our standards.

In my books, any crop that can make feed one way or the other is valuable beyond measure. Too many years of having absolutely no feed here has changed my perspective.
 

katrina

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No kidding Jason. When we fed hay the last 3 winters it seemed like it was one spear of grass for you and one spear of grass for you......
Our forst cutting was more this year than all the feed we had last year. And farmers are bitching about 136 bushel corn.... TRY 10......
 

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