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Investment Opportunity

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Anonymous

Guest
Romney Cratering on Intrade


Participants on the betting site intrade.com are dumping stock in Romney-2012 with no end in sight. During most of August, Romney's chances fluctuated in a narrow band from 38% to 44%. In the past week it has dropped to 27%. If you are convinced Romney is going to win, here is a chance to quadruple your money in the space of 6 weeks. Not even Bain Capital could come up with an investment that good.

Heres a chance for the loyal cult followers and true believers to make some bucks fast...
 

hypocritexposer

Well-known member
Here are the CBS/New York Times internals. And here's the con the CBS/NYTs is attempting to pull:

Florida:

In 2004 the vote was R+4.

In 2008 the vote was D+3

CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9.



Ohio:

In 2004 the vote was R+5

In 2008 the vote was D+8

CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9



Pennsylvania:

In 2010 the vote was D+3

In 2008 the vote was D+7

CBS/NYTs is reporting that in 2012 we will see D+9.

-

Again, why won't the media report the dramatic news that Democrats are expected to turnout in record numbers against Republicans?

Because the media doesn't believe it.

And yet, that's exactly what media polls claim will happen.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/09/26/BREAKING-Democrat-Voters-Turnout-Advantage-Over-Republicans-Will-Break-All-Time-Records
 

Mike

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
Romney Cratering on Intrade


Participants on the betting site intrade.com are dumping stock in Romney-2012 with no end in sight. During most of August, Romney's chances fluctuated in a narrow band from 38% to 44%. In the past week it has dropped to 27%. If you are convinced Romney is going to win, here is a chance to quadruple your money in the space of 6 weeks. Not even Bain Capital could come up with an investment that good.

Heres a chance for the loyal cult followers and true believers to make some bucks fast...

There are suckers born everyday. You're a prime example.............
 

Steve

Well-known member
UNSKEWED-POLLS-Sept-24-2012.jpg


The website says there is Democratic bias in polling because of over-sampling Democrats based on voter exit polls in the 2008 presidential election, when enthusiasm for a then relatively unknown but charismatic presidential candidate boosted Democratic Party voter registration and turnout to historic levels.

polls oversampled by using Historic 2008 exit polls....

sounds like the "fix is in"...
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Conservatives Set Up Their Own Polling Website

The late senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan once told an opponent that he was entitled to his own opinion but not to his own facts. It is doubtful he would have approved of people generating their own data. Still, Republicans unhappy with the national and state polls showing Obama leading Romney by an increasing margin have created a website with polls that weight the demographic distribution of voters differently, supposedly to reduce skew. Democrats counter that there is no reason to think that blacks or Latinos will turn out in lower numbers than in 2008 so there is no reason to reweight the polls with fewer of them.

In addition, while some pollsters use a demographic model to make sure that Democrats and Republicans are weighted according to their numbers in the electorate, other pollsters, such as Quinnipiac University, don't do that. If their sample has 37% Democrats and 35% Republicans, for example, they just assume that is the correct distribution and do not apply any corrections. So for these pollsters, accusations that the 2008 turnout model will not apply to 2012 are irrelevant; they aren't using it. Here is a good article on partisan identification and its impact on polling.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/09/19/how-party-id-became-partisan-and-why-it-shouldnt-be/


The unskewed polls site has been getting a lot of play on right-wing blogs but its numbers are more imaginary than the square root of -1. The average of all the national polls there has Romney leading Obama 52% to 44%. Unless the voter ID laws prevent massive numbers of minorities and students from voting, there is no way that will come close to being true. While individual pollsters may have bias, our technique of averaging all the nonpartisan ones should get rid of most of any residual bias. For example, in our current map, Colorado is an average of four polls by four different pollsters. Florida and Virginia are an average of six polls each, with six different pollsters per state. The map and numbers above include every poll Scott Rasmussen has published this year, even though earlier studies have shown he has a bias of about 4 points towards the Republicans.

Nevertheless, as a thought experiment, suppose all the pollsters had a bias of +3 for the Democrats, what would the map look like? It is easy to run this experiment. All that is necessary is to add 3 to every Republican score in every poll in the database and subtract 3 from every Democratic score. Here is the resulting map.
http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Sep26-special.html
The electoral vote score is 237 for Obama and 273 for Romney, with Wisconsin and Ohio ties. If we redo the experiment assuming only a 2% bias, Obama leads 284 to 248 with Iowa tied.

What does this experiment show us? Roughly, that Obama is about 2.5% ahead. While this is a completely different way of measuring public opinion than a national poll, in a way it is probably better since it uses data from more than a dozen state pollsters and has a vastly larger sample size than any national poll does. The conclusion is that if Romney does well enough in the first debate to shift public opinion in his direction by 3%, he will have a lead in the electoral college.

So Steve- how many $1000's are you investing in shares of Romney 2012 ?
 

Steve

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
So Steve- how many $1000's are you investing in shares of Romney 2012 ?

when I checked earlier only 30 shares were for sale.. so about $80

right now there are 10* ...

where as for Obama there are 635* for sale...





(*note these totals change as it is updated so will be different when checked.. )
 
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