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IRAQ: What Hillary and Barack Don’t Want You To Know

hypocritexposer

Well-known member
http://tceconomist.blogspot.com/2008/03/iraq-what-hillary-and-barack-dont-want.html

And John will not discuss.

Does Iraq have anything to do with the price of gasoline? Diesel fuel? Heating oil? Propane? Let’s examine what Hillary and Barack don’t want you to know and John is reluctant to reveal.

Let’s start with a statistic. At least 42 percent of the accessible conventional oil we humans need is located in one relatively small region on our planet. The Middle East. And the people who run this region do not seem to be in any hurry to send it our way. Get used to it. These people will produce their oil on their schedule. They are not going to produce their oil on our schedule. Existing drilling programs guarantee demand will exceed supply. Sometime between 2010 and 2017. Perhaps sooner.

Most of the nations that own the world’s remaining oil really don’t care what you think about the price of gasoline. Nor do they particularly care how you feel about the price of diesel, propane or heating oil fuels. They will just keep raising the price until you can’t afford to buy all they can produce.

Get the picture?

Let’s digress for a moment.
Natural gas. Heat in winter. Fertilizers to grow food. Electricity. Do you think heat and food and electricity are important?

Approximately 40 percent of the world’s known accessible natural gas is in the Middle East. The big players are Iran (38% of identified Middle Eastern natural gas) and Qatar (34% of identified Middle Eastern natural gas). The other big player in the world market is Russia with over 70 percent of the accessible EurAsian natural gas. In fact, between them, Russia and Iran control over 41% of the world’s known reserves of accessible natural gas. These people have made it very clear. They will produce their natural gas on their schedule. They are not going to produce their natural gas on our schedule. If we do not like the price we have to pay for natural gas – too bad!

Do you believe Putin really cares how cold it gets in European homes?

Reality check
Every nation needs a stable supply of oil and natural gas. Most nations want to increase their consumption of these fuels in order to grow their economies. Germany. France. England. America. Australia. Japan. China. India. We are competing for the same barrel of oil or cubic foot of natural gas. That is reality. As a result, we are in the midst of a brutal international competition for commodities that can not be easily replaced from available resources. That means higher prices for every fuel you purchase: gasoline, diesel, propane, kerosene, heating oil, propane, and natural gas. Ever higher prices will drive weaker buyers out of the market. Low income consumers will drive less or not at all. They will be cold in the winter. This is not some dreary prediction of the future. It is already happening!

Has Barack Obama been willing to discuss these issues? Why not?

Motivation.
Putin – the guy who runs Russia – wants to restore Russia’s position as a world military and economic power. He is using Russia’s oil and natural gas reserves as a tool to achieve his goals. He has already told the European Union – we have natural gas - and you don’t. So. If you want our natural gas, then support the Russian political agenda. That little reality is altering the international geopolitical balance of power. Putin is also courting Iran. Being very nice. Why? Because between them, Russia and Iran control a big chunk of the world’s oil and natural gas production.

Should we be concerned about Iran? Shia Iran. Muslim theology. The church is the state. And vice versa. Spiritual and political power are inseparable. Iran’s leaders have a vision. Shia Iraq marching in lockstep with Shia Iran. Backed by guns and money. Iran would like to control the Middle East. And its oil. And its natural gas.

Will you hear this from Hillary Clinton? No. She doesn’t want you to know.

China is being nice to Iran and Iraq. Why? China needs copious quantities of oil and natural gas to support its economic growth. China envisions itself as a world power. That adds to China’s thirst for fossil fuels. If China’s growth falters, there will be internal rebellion. So China is – and has to be - a very assertive consumer in world oil and natural gas markets. The Middle East is an obvious target for China’s aggressive diplomatic and military agenda. China has already signed agreements to acquire large quantities of Iranian oil. China is squabbling with Japan over access to Russian natural gas.

The European Union does not have enough oil or natural gas. It must acquire a growing percentage of its oil from the Middle East. Russia, Iran and Qatar are resources for natural gas. Iran, Iraq, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia are primary resources for oil. The EU can not survive unless it has strong consumer relationships with Russia and the nations of the Middle East. That reality is having a seminal impact on the EU’s diplomatic options.

The United States does not have enough oil or natural gas. Imports account for a growing percentage of the fuels we use each year. Although the United States has diversified its oil imports away from the Middle East, a growing percentage of future imports will have to come from this region. Like the European Union, the United States needs closer ties with Russia and the Middle East. That little reality has been ignored by all three candidates for President.

Consumer nations are in a precarious position. We are competing for the same reserves of oil and natural gas.

Shouldn’t we be hearing this news from John McCain? Why is he silent?

Iraq
Now. What happens if the United States fails to control the outcome in Iraq? We seem all too anxious to ignore the consequences. When we invaded Iraq, we took on a moral obligation to keep the peace as best we can while the people of Iraq develop the institutions they needs for self-governance. The military personnel who went into Iraq from multiple nations recognized that challenge from the start. Fashioning a working government out of the ashes of a fallen dictatorship would take courage, willpower and patience.

Both Hillary and Barack have suggested America walk away from Iraq. Bring the troops home. Give up. But - what happens next? Chaos. Civil war that leaves many thousands dead. As we have already witnessed, it will be Shia against Shia. Shia against Sunni. Shia Iran will link up with Iraq’s Shia population. Iran has enough military power to dominate Iraq and its vast reserves of conventional oil. It is only a matter of time before an Iran led coalition sweeps into the oil fields of Kuwait. Between them, Russia and Iran will then control over 41% of the world’s known accessible natural gas and over 29% of the world’s known accessible conventional oil. Can you guess what would happen to the price and availability of oil and natural gas? Would Iran be tempted to sweep on through the oil and natural gas fields of the Persian Gulf? The Russian Iranian coalition would then control 55% of our planet’s identified natural gas and 40% of its identified accessible conventional oil.

Will China send an army of 500,000 men into the Middle East to defend its interests? Neither NATO nor the United States have the military resources, or the fuel, to block the resulting military chaos and carnage. And we can expect Russia to warn the EU: don’t mess with the Middle East or we will shut off your natural gas.

Brutal. Isn’t it. Reality.

Fuel shortages are highly likely if war disrupts Middle Eastern production. That means long lines at the gas pump. You can expect to pay a lot more for natural gas, gasoline, diesel, propane, kerosene and heating oil fuels. And you will pay more for electricity. Expect to be colder in the winter and hotter in the summer. The price of everything you buy will go up. And you may be unemployed.

Yes. I know. This is a terribly pessimistic scenario. And none of the alternatives are much good either. And we can whine forever about how we got into this mess. But here we are. What do we do next? We need truth. A reality check. A frank discussion of our situation.


And that brings us back to Hillary, Barack and John.
I challenge them to answer one critical question:
What are the consequences of getting out of Iraq?


Will they evade these issues?

Probably. This is bad news and politicians do not like to talk about bad news. It makes voters nervous. Then they ask questions like: Why did you let this happen to us?

Our intellectual leaders are terribly misguided, be they from Europe, Australia, New Zealand, the United States or elsewhere on our planet. Members of the international elitist political clique are especially clueless. They worship the theology of misguided beliefs. Truth does not matter. Facts do not matter. Rational thought is rejected. Smug insider conviction rules.

Get out of Iraq. Ignore the consequences. Blame the Bush Administration, Republicans, Conservatives, America, corporations, and the rich (which pretty much means anyone who actually works for a living). Ignore oil depletion. It does not exist. Stop building coal power plants (except in China). Our reserves of natural gas will last forever. Shortages are a greedy corporate conspiracy. Ignore the reality of a resurgent Russia and a bellicose Iran. Placate Islamic extremists. Ignore the cultural changes now happening within the Muslim world. The list of obtuse intellectual reasoning goes on and on.

Hillary is singing the hymns of this philosophy because it is politically correct to do so. Barack has decided it is politically expedient to dodge these issues. And John dare not tell us the truth, least he be castrated by the media.

If you have read this far, you are probably very upset. These are unpopular concepts. But our political leaders appear to be reluctant to even discuss the consequences of our actions in the Middle East. That failure is incredibly irresponsible. We must work together. We must control the outcome. Because if we fail, we risk economic destitution and human carnage on a scale greater than we humans have ever experienced.

Let’s all ask Hillary, Barack and John to tell us how they plan to deal with the issues raised by this little essay.



Ron


PS: What would I do? My recommendations are outlined in two books – “Oil, Jihad and Destiny” which provides a detailed discussion of oil and energy, and “Detensive Nation”, a book that describes the kind of government we will need to deal with the challenges that lie ahead. Both books are available at Amazon. I place an emphasis on a realistic assessment of our options and a robust program of international cooperation.

Isn’t that better than killing each other to control our planet’s remaining oil and natural gas?
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