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Jim's Thinking

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V_Key

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Location
Gilroy/San Martin, Ca.
101 LiveStock Market Inc.
http://www.101livedtock.com

101 Livestock Market Review -

One of the key issues I wanted to talk about this week is the cow market. I think we have seen the biggest spread between fat cattle and butcher cows and bulls I can remember. Butcher cows are about 1/2 the value of a fat steer is hard to take. While there are several factors affecting that market we can look for a big improvement after the first of the year. I personally look for $60.00 cows in March.

I thought we would get the export market open before December however, while we should have been shipping meat to the Pacific Rim all year, it was a welcome addition to our market and certainly has had a very positive influence on cattle prices. Fat cattle over $95.00 again was good news for all cattle feeders. Last year we exported 640 million pounds of beef. In 2006 we expect to nearly double our exports of beef to nearly 1.2 billion pounds. Look for this increases in exports to have a positive influence on our markets. However, keep an eye on weights. Heavier fat cattle can increase tonnage drastically. We also look to get exports open to the Economic Union sometime with in the next year. Depending on when it happens that market could have a tremendous positive impact on our market. It could be more rewarding financially than the Pacific Rim. The National Cattleman's Beef Association (NCBA) has been putting a lot of effort into getting those markets opened to US Beef and their efforts should not go unnoticed.

Finally we are near the top of our economic beef cycle, where production starts to increase and prices flatten out or start to move lower. While we don't see any particular big move in either direction for next year. You can start to make management decisions based on increased inventory and lower prices between now and the end of this decade. If the cycle runs true to form 2009-2010 could see our greatest numbers and lowest prices. That is usually the best time to increase inventories and get ready to ride the market up again.

High priced cattle in the future will revolve around source verified cattle that are QSA approved. In order for customers to take advantage of these additional premiums we realized 101 Livestock Market would need to become QSA approved. We started work on that project in August and should get final approval shortly after the first of February. Because it is too expensive for each producer to get QSA approval we will be listing our customers ranches under our umbrella so they can take advantage of these new programs and the price premiums they offer. Because the demand for these cattle continues to out pace the supply we will be helping both old and new customers get their cattle registered under our umbrella for 2006.

The requirements for approval is

1: Age Verification of Cattle
2: Premise Number
3: Vaccination records
We must have a copy of these and you must keep one for yourself.

If you have any questions don't hesitate to call us, we will be glad to help.
Have a great Christmas and Happy New Year. Our next sale will January 10th 2006.

Jim Warren
[email protected]

Posted By Independant - V_Key
==========================================
The USDA *Quality System Assessment* Program

http://www.ams.usda.gov/lsg/arc/qsap.htm
 

OldDog/NewTricks

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Joined
May 24, 2005
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The Dam End of Silicon Valley
V_Key said:
101 LiveStock Market Inc.
http://www.101livestock.com

101 Livestock Market Review -

One of the key issues I wanted to talk about this week is the cow market. I think we have seen the biggest spread between fat cattle and butcher cows and bulls I can remember. Butcher cows are about 1/2 the value of a fat steer is hard to take. While there are several factors affecting that market we can look for a big improvement after the first of the year. I personally look for $60.00 cows in March.

I thought we would get the export market open before December however, while we should have been shipping meat to the Pacific Rim all year, it was a welcome addition to our market and certainly has had a very positive influence on cattle prices. Fat cattle over $95.00 again was good news for all cattle feeders. Last year we exported 640 million pounds of beef. In 2006 we expect to nearly double our exports of beef to nearly 1.2 billion pounds. Look for this increases in exports to have a positive influence on our markets. However, keep an eye on weights. Heavier fat cattle can increase tonnage drastically. We also look to get exports open to the Economic Union sometime with in the next year. Depending on when it happens that market could have a tremendous positive impact on our market. It could be more rewarding financially than the Pacific Rim. The National Cattleman's Beef Association (NCBA) has been putting a lot of effort into getting those markets opened to US Beef and their efforts should not go unnoticed.

Finally we are near the top of our economic beef cycle, where production starts to increase and prices flatten out or start to move lower. While we don't see any particular big move in either direction for next year. You can start to make management decisions based on increased inventory and lower prices between now and the end of this decade. If the cycle runs true to form 2009-2010 could see our greatest numbers and lowest prices. That is usually the best time to increase inventories and get ready to ride the market up again.

High priced cattle in the future will revolve around source verified cattle that are QSA approved. In order for customers to take advantage of these additional premiums we realized 101 Livestock Market would need to become QSA approved. We started work on that project in August and should get final approval shortly after the first of February. Because it is too expensive for each producer to get QSA approval we will be listing our customers ranches under our umbrella so they can take advantage of these new programs and the price premiums they offer. Because the demand for these cattle continues to out pace the supply we will be helping both old and new customers get their cattle registered under our umbrella for 2006.

The requirements for approval is

1: Age Verification of Cattle
2: Premise Number
3: Vaccination records
We must have a copy of these and you must keep one for yourself.

If you have any questions don't hesitate to call us, we will be glad to help.
Have a great Christmas and Happy New Year. Our next sale will January 10th 2006.

Jim Warren
[email protected]

Posted By Independant - V_Key
==========================================
The USDA *Quality System Assessment* Program

http://www.ams.usda.gov/lsg/arc/qsap.htm
 

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