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HAY MAKER

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Schwieterman Update
The information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services and other sources believed to be reliable. However,
such information has not been verified by us, and we do not make any representations as to the accuracy or completeness. Past results are not
necessarily indicative of future results. All statements contained herein are current opinions which are subject to change. The risk of loss in trading
commodity future contracts can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your
financial condition. Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures
contracts.
Update for the morning of February 3, 2006
Garden City 1-800-272-9131 or 620-275-4100 fax 620-275-1841 e-mail [email protected]
Corn
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Overnight Trade: H +1
Opening Calls: 1-2 Higher
LDP for FI County KS: Corn 1 Milo 23
March corn took out Monday’s high of $2.22 in overnight trade, which indicates that the run higher is not
over. Apparently a 7 cent correction from high to low was enough. Now we have to think about the March corn
reaching the $2.27 level and the new crop December corn making a move over $2.60. For today, the $2.22 level
will be good resistance, but if we make it through there in the day session, we could see more short covering and
new fund buying.
Wheat
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Overnight Trade: Chicago: H +2 3/4 KC: H +2 1/4
Opening Calls: 2-3 Higher
LDP for FI County KS: -94
Wheat had a big day yesterday and got follow through overnight. It looks like wheat in both Kansas City
and Chicago are going to make another leg higher with the March KW moving to $4.30 and the March Chicago
headed for the contract high of $3.65. The EU lowering their export subsidy makes our wheat more competitive on
the world market, so we should expect better sales numbers in the future. This bull market keeps getting fed good
news.
Soybeans
Trends
Short Term: Up
Long Term: Up
Overnight Trade: H + 1/2
Opening Calls: 1-2 Higher
LDP for FI County KS: -45
Soybeans were higher yesterday, but the strength was unimpressive in relation to the wheat and corn and the
same was true overnight. For today, the beans will probably try to follow the corn and wheat higher, but the $5.90
level will be strong resistance for the March contract.
The information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services and other sources believed to be reliable. However,
such information has not been verified by us, and we do not make any representations as to the accuracy or completeness. Past results are not
necessarily indicative of future results. All statements contained herein are current opinions which are subject to change. The risk of loss in trading
commodity future contracts can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your
financial condition. Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures
contracts.
LIVE CATTLE
Trend
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Seasonal: Up
Opening Calls: Mixed
Live cattle futures declined to 14 week lows on Thursday as cash trade developed between $92and $92.50 in the south.
Late day buying brought the futures well off of their lows following the conclusion of most of the cash trade. Part of the
recovery was due to hedges being lifted but some new buying surfaced on anticipation of tighter supplies in the near future.
Cutout values continued their recent decline with choice down 1.70. Technical support for the April contract comes in at
Thursdays’ low which was right at the 50% retracement from contract high to low.
FEEDER CATTLE
Trends
Short Term: Down
Long Term: Down
Seasonal: Down
Opening Calls: Mixed
Feeder cattle traded to their lowest level since October 24th and failed to recover as much as the live trade into the
close. Without the help of hedge lifting there didn’t appear to be very much positive energy in the feeder market. The cash
index closed down .68 to settle the day at 112.04 to maintain a 3.40 premium over the March board. The next support level for
March feeders comes between yesterdays’ low and the low of 107.50 made on October 24th.
2/3/06
Cash Cattle Yesterday Live Average Dressed Average WTD Hogs Slaughter
KS 19093
87.50-
92.50 91.75 144-145 144.77 19093 Yesterday 397
TX/OK 8771 91-92.50 92.25 145.00 8771 Week Ago 404
NE 35847
88.50-
91.50 90.61 140-145 144.50 38686 Year Ago 397
Cattle Fax Live Dressed Volume Slaughter Loins 90
KS 92-92.50 145.00 75000 Yesterday 122 Hams 57
TX/OK 92-92.50 68000 Week Ago 126 Bellies
NE 91.00 145.00 40000 Year Ago 118 Lean Index Change
CO 91.00 144-145 17000 Carcass Equivalent 54.99 -.03
Cutouts Choice Select Choice Select Hide/Offal Loads 71.25
150.46 138.13 143.65 131.13 8.14 Trim 6
Change -1.70 -1.06 -1.10 -.78 +.01
Volume L 229 T 118
CME Feeder Index Change Live Index Change
112.04 -.68 94.26 -.06
Showlist KS TX/OK NE
95 95 95
Weekly Stocks Report for Week Ending 01/27/06
DOE API
Change 01/27/06 01/20/06 01/27/05 01/27/06 Change
Crude + 1.90 321.00 319.10 287.50 324.22 + 5.89
Distillates - 200K 136.30 136.50 123.30 137.47 - 883K
Unleaded + 4.20 219.00 214.80 218.40 216.21 + 3.65
Rates + .80 87.00 86.20
Imports + 339K 9.60 9.26
5 Yr Avg % Change
Nat Gas - 88 2.406 2.494 2.11 1.877 + 28.20
Commitment of Traders - Futures Only 01/24/06
Non-Commercial Commercial Non-Reportable
Crude 5541 7217 -6,685 -9172 1144 1955
Distillates 9944 4188 -12661 -5893 2717 1705
Unleaded 33430 -301 -40756 -2010 7326 2311
Nat Gas -47932 2745 6947 -1667 40985 -1078
Analysts Estimates for Week Ending 01/27/06
Crude + 500K
Distillates + 500K
Unleaded + 1.30
Rates
Crude Oil Unleaded Heating Oil Natural Gas
Short Term Trend DOWN DOWN DOWN DOWN
Long Term Trend UP DOWN DOWN DOWN
O/N Trade @ 7:15 am + .22 + .0044 + .0132 + .052
Commentary:
As we suspected yesterday the bears were encouraged by the weak action after Wednesday's weekly inventory data
and today was encouraged even more by the back pedaling of the US ambassador to IAEA on the course of UN
action towards Iran. He stated reporting Iran to the UN would increase a diplomatic solution rather than sanctions.
This should signal that the Bush administration is serious about curbing out of control energy prices while still standing
firm on terrorism. Don't be surprised to see some sort of end of the week short covering at some point today but keep
the 50 % retracement of this years rally of 63.55 as the first downside target. Resistance is 65.45 and 66.20 with
support at 64.30 and 63.55. The short term trend in Crude and long term trend in products have turned down.
The information contained herein is based on data obtained from recognized statistical services and other sources believed to be reliable. However,
such information has not been verified by ;us, and we do not make any representations as to the accuracy or completeness. Past results are not
necessarily indicative of future results. All statements contained herein are current opinions which are subject to change. The risk of loss in trading
commodity future contracts can be substantial. You should therefore carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial
condition. Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed shall be construed as an offer to buy or sell any futures or options on futures contracts.
SPECIAL NOTE : Nymex now offers 1/2 size mini contracts of Unleaded and Heating Oil ( 21,000 gal )
and 1/4 size mini contracts of Natural Gas ( 2500 MMBtu)
 

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