Lee Newspapers poll: Obama holds big edge over Clinton in Montana
By CHARLES S. JOHNSON of the Missoulian State Bureau
HELENA - Barack Obama has grabbed a big lead over Hillary Clinton in Montana's June 3 Democratic presidential primary, a Lee Newspapers poll shows.
Obama leads Clinton by 52 percent to 35 percent among likely Democratic voters, with 13 percent undecided in the poll, which was taken May 19-21. The Democratic primary portion of the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
Montana and South Dakota have the nation's last Democratic presidential primaries on June 3. With the prolonged battle continuing for the Democratic nomination, Montana's usually ignored late primary has attracted unprecedented interest from Obama and Clinton.
Obama spoke in Missoula and Butte last month, and he returned to Montana last week to campaign in Billings, Bozeman and on the Crow Indian Reservation.
Clinton has addressed crowds in Butte and Missoula in April and is set to campaign in Billings on Tuesday. Her husband, former President Bill Clinton, has stumped on her behalf in Havre, Great Falls, Helena, Butte, Billings, Missoula and Kalispell and was set to campaign in Bozeman, Lewistown and Miles City on Saturday.
The Lee Newspaper poll, taken May 19 to 21, was done by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C. Pollsters interviewed, by telephone, 625 registered Montana voters who all said they regularly vote in Montana elections.
Those interviewed were chosen by the random variation of the last four digits of telephones. A cross-section of exchanges was used to ensure an accurate reflection of the state, with quotas assigned to reflect turnout by county.
The survey includes an over-sampling of 400 likely Democratic voters for the presidential primary question.
Although Montana Republicans are holding a presidential primary, the Lee poll didn't include that race because the state GOP already decided to throw its votes to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in a Feb. 5 winner-take-all caucus.
Looking closer at the Democratic poll primary results, Obama leads Clinton among every subgroup except in eastern Montana.
Obama is ahead Clinton among men by 58 percent to 33 percent, and among women by 48 percent to 36 percent, the poll showed.
Voters younger than age 50 favor Obama by 56 percent to 30 percent, while those 50 and older back Obama 49 percent to 39 percent, it showed. The rest are undecided.
In the 18 counties in western Montana, Obama holds a commanding 62 percent-to-25 percent lead over Clinton, the poll showed. These counties include Gallatin, Flathead, Lewis and Clark, Missoula, Ravalli and Silver Bow.
Clinton leads Obama 47 percent to 40 percent in the 38 counties designated as eastern Montana in the poll. These counties include Cascade and Yellowstone.
“Obviously, Obama is the favorite,” said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. “We're seeing the same patterns (in Montana) we're seeing elsewhere. His strength is with male voters and voters under 50. Clinton does better but still trails with voters over 50 and with women.”
Obama has done well in Western states such as Idaho, North Dakota and Wyoming, Coker said.
As for Obama's strength in western Montana, Coker said Obama does very well in university towns with college students and highly educated people.
This poll was completed about two weeks before the June 3 election.
“That's a lot of times for numbers to change,” Coker said. “I'd be surprised if Obama didn't win Montana. The margin might tighten up.”
Slumping economy No. 1 issue on minds of Montana voters
HELENA - A slumping economy and skittish job market weighs heaviest on Montana voters' minds as they ponder the presidential election, a new Lee Newspapers poll shows.
Asked to identify the single most important issue in deciding their presidential vote, 28 percent of Montanans listed the economy and jobs.
Such economic concerns were far and away the most important issue identified. National security and terrorism came in a distant second, with just 14 percent claiming those as their No. 1 concern.
The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., of Washington, D.C., for Lee Newspapers of Montana.
Some 13 percent of those polled said Iraq was their top issue, while 12 percent cited energy policy and gas prices. Health care claimed 11 percent and 10 percent said moral issues and family values were their top concern.
Just 5 percent cited immigration as their top concern; 3 percent cited the environment and climate change.
How the Lee Newspapers poll was conducted
HELENA - The Lee Newspapers poll was conducted May 19-21 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., for the Billings Gazette, Montana Standard of Butte, Helena Independent Record, Missoulian and Ravalli Republic.
A total of 625 registered Montana voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All said they regularly vote in state elections.
Pollsters interviewed 317 women for 51 percent of the sample and 308 men for 49 percent.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for any subgroup such as a gender sampling.
There was an oversampling of 400 likely Democratic primary voters just for the presidential primary race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. The margin of error for this primary sub-sample is plus or minus 5 percentage points.
The Lee poll didn't cover the Republican presidential primary because Montana Republicans decided on their presidential choice through party caucuses in February.
Those interviewed were selected by random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of telephone exchanges was used to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the turnout by county.
Here is the breakdown of the 625 telephone calls for the survey:
Eastern Montana area, 55 interviews in these 15 counties: Carter, Custer, Daniels, Dawson, Fallon, Garfield, McCone, Powder River, Prairie, Richland, Roosevelt, Rosebud, Sheridan, Valley and Wibaux.
Billings and southeastern Montana area, 125 interviews in these 11 counties: Big Horn, Carbon, Fergus, Golden Valley, Musselshell, Petroleum, Stillwater, Sweet Grass, Treasure, Wheatland and Yellowstone.
Great Falls and northcentral Montana area, 105 interviews in these 12 counties: Blaine, Cascade, Chouteau, Glacier, Hill, Judith Basin, Liberty, Meagher, Phillips, Pondera, Teton and Toole.
Butte, Helena and Bozeman areas, 160 interviews in these 10 counties: Beaverhead, Broadwater, Deer Lodge, Gallatin, Jefferson, Lewis and Clark, Madison, Park, Powell and Silver Bow.
Missoula and Kalispell areas, 180 interviews in these eight counties: Flathead, Granite, Lake, Lincoln, Mineral, Missoula, Ravalli and Sanders.
When the newspapers finish publishing the stories based on the poll results, copies of the poll results may be purchased from the polling company's Web site: www.mason-dixon.com.
http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2008/05/25/news/local/news03.txt