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McCain leads in Montana

Texan

Well-known member
MT Poll: McCain Leads Dems
Posted by TOM BEVAN

Mason-Dixon is out with new general election numbers in Montana (May 19-21) showing John McCain beating Obama by 8 points and Clinton by 11:

McCain 51
Clinton 40
Undecided 9

McCain 47
Obama 39
Undecided 14

The candidate's favorable/unfavorable ratings explain why Clinton runs worse than Obama:

McCain 46/35 (+11)
Obama 41/38 (+3)
Clinton 29/50 (-21)

Lastly, a bit of Montana presidential history from the Missoulan article:

In 15 presidential elections since 1948, the Democratic candidate have [sic] carried Montana only three times. Harry Truman won in 1948. Montanans backed Lyndon Johnson as part of his landslide win over Barry Goldwater in 1964. The state backed Bill Clinton over sitting President George H.W. Bush in 1992, thanks to third party candidate Ross Perot pulling in 26 percent of the vote.


http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/2008/05/mt_poll_mccain_leads_dems.html
 

Texan

Well-known member
Lee Newspapers poll: McCain favored over both Democrats in Montana

By CHARLES S. JOHNSON of the Missoulian State Bureau


HELENA - Republican John McCain would defeat either Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton if the Montana election were held today, a Lee Newspapers poll shows.

The poll showed McCain ahead of Obama by 47 percent to 39 percent, with 14 percent undecided.

McCain would defeat Clinton by 51 percent to 40 percent, with 9 percent undecided, if the election were held today, the poll showed.
The general election matchups have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

The Lee poll, taken May 19 to 21, was done by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C. Pollsters interviewed, by telephone, 625 registered Montana voters who all said they regularly vote in Montana elections.

Looking at the poll details, McCain not only leads Obama 47 percent to 39 percent overall, but is ahead among men by 50 percent to 37 percent. Among women, it's McCain 44 percent to Obama's 41 percent, which is within the poll's margin of error.

McCain wins 85 percent of Republicans' vote to Obama's 4 percent. Obama would get 77 percent of Democrats' vote, while 12 percent of Democrats say they would back McCain. Independents are narrowly divided, with 41 percent backing Obama and 39 percent for McCain.

When matched up against Clinton, McCain not only leads overall by 51 percent to 40 percent, but is ahead in every subcategory except Democratic voters.

Among men, McCain leads 48 percent to 38 percent, poll results showed. McCain gets 48 percent of women's vote to Clinton's 42 percent.

McCain leads Clinton among Republicans by 91 percent to 3 percent and among independents by 50 percent to 33 percent.

Clinton leads only among Democrats by 88 percent to 7 percent, the poll showed.

“I don't know that there's anything too surprising,” Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon said. “It leans to McCain either way, but it's less than 10 points versus Obama and a little more than 10 versus Clinton.

“I don't know that you totally bank on it for McCain, but it seems to be leaning Republican, which is would I would expect to find in Montana in a presidential matchup this far out.”

In 15 presidential elections since 1948, the Democratic candidate have carried Montana only three times. Harry Truman won in 1948. Montanans backed Lyndon Johnson as part of his landslide win over Barry Goldwater in 1964. The state backed Bill Clinton over sitting President George H.W. Bush in 1992, thanks to third party candidate Ross Perot pulling in 26 percent of the vote.

The poll showed McCain has better name recognition scores than either Democrat, with Clinton having the highest negatives. When voters were asked if they recognized each of the three and did so favorably, unfavorably or neutral, results showed:

McCain: 46 percent favorable to 35 percent unfavorable, with 19 percent neutral.

Obama: 41 percent favorable to 38 percent unfavorable, with 21 percent neutral.

Clinton: 29 percent favorable to 50 percent unfavorable, with 21 percent neutral.



Montana voters speak their minds on candidates

Missoulian State Bureau

Editor's note: When the Lee Newspapers poll was conducted last week, those called were asked if they would be willing to discuss their opinions later with a reporter later. Here is a sampling of the voices of Montana voters.

HELENA - Montana voters have strong feelings about Democratic presidential candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton and the presumptive Republican nominee, John McCain.

Here are some of their views, organized by which candidate they support:



Barack Obama

Pamela Schlecht, a Corvallis woman who works at the family's excavating business: “I'm not a real political person usually. That's my husband's job. This particular race, I have three college kids, and they're very interested in this race also. This is a more critical race than most.

“We all have discussed the candidates. We're all for Obama for many reasons. We feel he's pretty much one that's not bought and paid for already. Going in, he doesn't owe as much to big business and lobbyists. We feel he's a very strong personality, one that has strong leadership traits. He seems a breath of fresh air. He seems very intelligent, a quick thinker.”

Ken Horner, a disabled Libby resident: “We've had eight years of failure. I want Obama. I think he's got new ideas. I think it's time that we make a change. We've got to get it back on the right track. It's been going haywire a long time, even before Bush got in there.”

Mildred Miller, a retired Corvallis woman: “I have already done the absentee ballot and I voted for Obama. The reason I did is because of his statement about American jobs going overseas. I believe it's time for America to start producing jobs, etc., again, instead of relying on imported goods. I believe it's a shame that the American people are being unemployed to provide jobs overseas.”

Francies Poulos, 89, of Billings: “I'm for Obama. I know that he doesn't have as much experience as some of them. but maybe that's a good idea. We need somebody in Washington who can try some new ideas, not the same old stuff. I think that he has a personality that can put things together and get people to go along with him in Washington. Everyone says we need education and health care. We can't get education and health care until we get an economy with good-paying jobs.”



Hillary Clinton

Lois Edgerton, a retired Missoula woman: “I think she has more experience. I think she's been in the mess before. I like Obama. I think he's very intelligent, but I just don't feel he has quite the experience Hillary has. I really think that Hillary has a better chance of beating McCain than Obama does.”

Lucy Dayton, a Helena veterinarian: “I support Hillary mostly because I think we have serious problems in this country with recession - if it's not here, it may be coming - a difficult war and foreign affairs that need to be handled. I think she's the more experienced of the two in those areas. I think Obama seems as though he has an incredible amount of charisma. I really appreciate how he's energized young voters. I just don't think he's the right person at the right time.”

Joseph Lee of Butte: “I support Hillary Clinton. Why? Her experience more than anything else. I think she's for the working people, working class. I have nothing against Obama, either.”

John McRae, a retired Billings ironworker: “I'm for Hillary Clinton. She's probably not any more qualified than McCain, but I feel we'd have another four more years of Bush if we had McCain. Obama? I don't think he's got the experience. Whoever goes in there is going into a hell of a mess. I would probably vote for McCain in the general against Obama, especially if he picks Romney.”



John McCain

Phyllis Myhre, a retired teacher from Cut Bank: “I favor John McCain because I think he's older, much wiser and through his experience, he's well able to carry foreign policy. I wish he were a little more conservative. I think he is a good one to hold the office of president.”

Jared Albus, a farmer-rancher from Hinsdale: “I'll vote for John McCain right now the way things stand. He's just more conservative.”

Jerry Keith, a rancher from Ekalaka: ” I guess McCain right now because I don't trust the Democrats and what they promise.”



http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2008/05/25/news/local/news03.txt
 

Texan

Well-known member
Lee Newspapers poll: Obama holds big edge over Clinton in Montana

By CHARLES S. JOHNSON of the Missoulian State Bureau


HELENA - Barack Obama has grabbed a big lead over Hillary Clinton in Montana's June 3 Democratic presidential primary, a Lee Newspapers poll shows.

Obama leads Clinton by 52 percent to 35 percent among likely Democratic voters, with 13 percent undecided in the poll, which was taken May 19-21. The Democratic primary portion of the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Montana and South Dakota have the nation's last Democratic presidential primaries on June 3. With the prolonged battle continuing for the Democratic nomination, Montana's usually ignored late primary has attracted unprecedented interest from Obama and Clinton.
Obama spoke in Missoula and Butte last month, and he returned to Montana last week to campaign in Billings, Bozeman and on the Crow Indian Reservation.

Clinton has addressed crowds in Butte and Missoula in April and is set to campaign in Billings on Tuesday. Her husband, former President Bill Clinton, has stumped on her behalf in Havre, Great Falls, Helena, Butte, Billings, Missoula and Kalispell and was set to campaign in Bozeman, Lewistown and Miles City on Saturday.

The Lee Newspaper poll, taken May 19 to 21, was done by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C. Pollsters interviewed, by telephone, 625 registered Montana voters who all said they regularly vote in Montana elections.

Those interviewed were chosen by the random variation of the last four digits of telephones. A cross-section of exchanges was used to ensure an accurate reflection of the state, with quotas assigned to reflect turnout by county.

The survey includes an over-sampling of 400 likely Democratic voters for the presidential primary question.

Although Montana Republicans are holding a presidential primary, the Lee poll didn't include that race because the state GOP already decided to throw its votes to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in a Feb. 5 winner-take-all caucus.

Looking closer at the Democratic poll primary results, Obama leads Clinton among every subgroup except in eastern Montana.

Obama is ahead Clinton among men by 58 percent to 33 percent, and among women by 48 percent to 36 percent, the poll showed.

Voters younger than age 50 favor Obama by 56 percent to 30 percent, while those 50 and older back Obama 49 percent to 39 percent, it showed. The rest are undecided.

In the 18 counties in western Montana, Obama holds a commanding 62 percent-to-25 percent lead over Clinton, the poll showed. These counties include Gallatin, Flathead, Lewis and Clark, Missoula, Ravalli and Silver Bow.

Clinton leads Obama 47 percent to 40 percent in the 38 counties designated as eastern Montana in the poll. These counties include Cascade and Yellowstone.

“Obviously, Obama is the favorite,” said Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research. “We're seeing the same patterns (in Montana) we're seeing elsewhere. His strength is with male voters and voters under 50. Clinton does better but still trails with voters over 50 and with women.”

Obama has done well in Western states such as Idaho, North Dakota and Wyoming, Coker said.

As for Obama's strength in western Montana, Coker said Obama does very well in university towns with college students and highly educated people.

This poll was completed about two weeks before the June 3 election.

“That's a lot of times for numbers to change,” Coker said. “I'd be surprised if Obama didn't win Montana. The margin might tighten up.”



Slumping economy No. 1 issue on minds of Montana voters

HELENA - A slumping economy and skittish job market weighs heaviest on Montana voters' minds as they ponder the presidential election, a new Lee Newspapers poll shows.

Asked to identify the single most important issue in deciding their presidential vote, 28 percent of Montanans listed the economy and jobs.

Such economic concerns were far and away the most important issue identified. National security and terrorism came in a distant second, with just 14 percent claiming those as their No. 1 concern.

The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc., of Washington, D.C., for Lee Newspapers of Montana.

Some 13 percent of those polled said Iraq was their top issue, while 12 percent cited energy policy and gas prices. Health care claimed 11 percent and 10 percent said moral issues and family values were their top concern.

Just 5 percent cited immigration as their top concern; 3 percent cited the environment and climate change.



How the Lee Newspapers poll was conducted

HELENA - The Lee Newspapers poll was conducted May 19-21 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C., for the Billings Gazette, Montana Standard of Butte, Helena Independent Record, Missoulian and Ravalli Republic.

A total of 625 registered Montana voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. All said they regularly vote in state elections.

Pollsters interviewed 317 women for 51 percent of the sample and 308 men for 49 percent.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for any subgroup such as a gender sampling.

There was an oversampling of 400 likely Democratic primary voters just for the presidential primary race between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. The margin of error for this primary sub-sample is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

The Lee poll didn't cover the Republican presidential primary because Montana Republicans decided on their presidential choice through party caucuses in February.

Those interviewed were selected by random variation of the last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of telephone exchanges was used to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the turnout by county.

Here is the breakdown of the 625 telephone calls for the survey:

Eastern Montana area, 55 interviews in these 15 counties: Carter, Custer, Daniels, Dawson, Fallon, Garfield, McCone, Powder River, Prairie, Richland, Roosevelt, Rosebud, Sheridan, Valley and Wibaux.

Billings and southeastern Montana area, 125 interviews in these 11 counties: Big Horn, Carbon, Fergus, Golden Valley, Musselshell, Petroleum, Stillwater, Sweet Grass, Treasure, Wheatland and Yellowstone.

Great Falls and northcentral Montana area, 105 interviews in these 12 counties: Blaine, Cascade, Chouteau, Glacier, Hill, Judith Basin, Liberty, Meagher, Phillips, Pondera, Teton and Toole.

Butte, Helena and Bozeman areas, 160 interviews in these 10 counties: Beaverhead, Broadwater, Deer Lodge, Gallatin, Jefferson, Lewis and Clark, Madison, Park, Powell and Silver Bow.

Missoula and Kalispell areas, 180 interviews in these eight counties: Flathead, Granite, Lake, Lincoln, Mineral, Missoula, Ravalli and Sanders.

When the newspapers finish publishing the stories based on the poll results, copies of the poll results may be purchased from the polling company's Web site: www.mason-dixon.com.



http://www.missoulian.com/articles/2008/05/25/news/local/news03.txt
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
But old McBush keeps beating the same old 4 more years drumbeat... :roll: :( :mad:


U.S. on wrong track; Montana on right track
By JENNIFER McKEE
Gazette State Bureau

HELENA - Montanans are uniformly pessimistic about the direction in which the country is heading, a new Gazette State Poll shows, but their mood lightens considerably when asked about Montana.

An overwhelming 73 percent of registered Montana voters recently surveyed said they thought the country was on the wrong track. The feeling was deepest among self-identified Democrats and independent voters, with 92 percent of Democrats and 78 percent of independents saying they felt the country was headed in the wrong direction.

Nonetheless, a majority of Republicans - 52 percent - said they likewise through the country was on the wrong track.

Just 17 percent of those queried said they thought the country was moving in the right direction. Ten percent said they weren't sure. The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. of Washington, D.C. Pollsters contacted 625 registered Montana voters by telephone from May 19 to May 21. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.

Montanans reported a strikingly sunnier attitude about their own state.

Sixty percent of those surveyed said they felt the state was headed in the right direction. The optimism spread across all boundaries: a strong majority of Democrats, Republican, independent voters, men and women all said they felt Montana was on the right track.

Some 25 percent said they felt the state was headed in the wrong direction, while 15 percent said they weren't sure.

Democrats were most likely to report positive feelings about the state, with 66 percent saying Montana was on the right track. Fifty-three percent of Republicans reported a similar sentiment, along with 62 percent of independents.

The results are a striking contrast to just six months ago, when the Gazette State Poll asked voters an identical question. Back then, in December of 2007, 56 percent of those surveyed said they thought the country was headed in the wrong direction. Sixty-four percent said then they felt the state was on the right track.

Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon, said the sputtering U.S. economy is beginning to affect the way Montanans feel about the nation.

"The whole national economy is starting to pull the states' economy down," he said.

http://www.billingsgazette.net/articles/2008/05/26/news/state/24-statepoll_s.txt
 

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