Analysis: Obama's fast OK of town-hall debates with McCain a politically savvy move
Carolyn Lochhead, Chronicle Washington Bureau
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
(06-04) 17:31 PDT Washington - -- Sen. Barack Obama's quick acceptance of Sen. John McCain's offer today to debate in town hall meetings across the country might seem puzzling, playing into the Republican's strength and exposing an Obama weakness.
Even in top form on a victory night, Sen. John McCain delivers an indifferent set speech, often turning the most graceful prose to lead. McCain' facial expressions are forced, and he runs over punch lines with an odd sing-song delivery. In town halls, by contrast, he is at his best, roving with a microphone, engaging spontaneously with voters and showcasing his sardonic wit.
For Obama the reverse may be true. Obama is possibly the best public speaker of any politician today. A polished writer, his speeches launched his career, setting the 2004 Democratic convention ablaze and setting him on course to win an Illinois Senate seat and in short order seize the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination. Obama seems to make the teleprompter disappear, delivering his words with a force and cadence that dazzles audiences.
His debate performances, however, have been uneven, and his town hall discussions pedestrian. Sen. Hillary Clinton often outdebated him, and although he improved over time, he sometimes appeared hesitant, pausing to search for words. He was often unsmiling and at times even rattled. After a poor showing in their last debate, Obama spurned Clinton's offer in Indiana to engage in a series of free-ranging encounters modeled on the Abraham Lincoln and Stephen Douglass debates in 1858 and they never got on stage together again.
Yet when McCain made the town hall offer today, campaign manager David Plouffe not only leapt at the idea, but actually suggested a format modeled on the Lincoln-Douglas encounters.
Political analysts see Machiavellian calculations on both sides.
The simple appearance of the 46-year-old Obama next to 71-year-old McCain will carry more weight than anything either of them says, predicted Gary South, a California Democratic consultant who advised former California governor Gray Davis and former Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore.
Being on stage together will visually contrast their quarter-century age difference, the largest ever between two major party presidential candidates, South noted.
"This election is clearly going to be about the past versus the future," South said, arguing that Obama and McCain side-by-side could produce an effect similar to the 1980 debates between Democratic President Jimmy Carter and Republican challenger Ronald Reagan.
Even though Reagan was the older man, "just the physical contrast between the two made that debate over with before it even began," South said. "You have this little, pinched-looking Jimmy Carter looking worn and drawn and old, and then you had the six-foot-two Ronald Reagan with his shock of chestnut brown hair, his ruddy cheeks, his football shoulders and his cockeyed grin. And you looked at the two candidates and you said, 'Come on, who do I want representing the United States of America?' And it wasn't Jimmy Carter."
McCain, for his part will seek to use the town hall format to highlight what may be Obama's greatest weakness, his inexperience. McCain has had years of practice in town halls, staging his comeback this year by directly engaging just about every Republican in New Hampshire by traipsing from one town hall to another and staying until every question was answered. It's a format that doesn't feel particularly comfortable with.
McCain clearly hopes to demolish Obama on substance.
"The choice between my candidacy and Sen. Obama's could not be more clear," McCain said in a letter to supporters today. "This is a change election. But the choice is between the right change and the wrong change, between going forward and going backward."
"If you put John McCain side by side with Barack Obama, Obama's youth will be highlighted very much, just as McCain's experience will be highlighted," said Benjamin Bates, an election advertising expert at Ohio University. "They both want that comparison for different reasons."
Obama will be unable to rely on what Bates calls "God-terms of hope and change," which he said "inspire Americans to fill in whatever they think hope means and whatever change means. People want to know, what does Obama mean by hope and change."
A town hall format that excludes media questions and moderators, as McCain has suggested, may suit both candidates. Neither can avoid formal debates, which have been expected of presidential candidates since John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon squared off in 1960. These are run by the Commission on Presidential Debates.
The town hall format offers a much less formal alternative. "Obama runs into more problems when he's questioned by the media than when he's questioned by the public," Bates said, "because the media is likely to be more informed and more critical of generalities than the average Joe."
McCain, delivering the proposal in a letter to Obama, said the town hall format would permit greater respect and civility between the candidates to discuss "the great issues of the day, without the empty sound bites and media-filtered exchanges that dominated our elections" and that the format should be "as free from the regimented trappings, rules and spectacle of formal debates as possible."
McCain drew heavily on symbolism, calling forth the agreement between Republican Sen. Barry Goldwater and Democratic Sen. Jack Kennedy to do a similar forum in 1963, before Kennedy's assassination. He suggested the first encounter be held at Federal Hall in lower Manhattan, the original town hall, were President George Washington took the oath of office and the first capitol of the young government.
McCain suggested an audience of 200 to 400 citizens chosen by an independent polling agency, and sessions of 60 to 90 minutes, with blind questions from the audience and "very limited" moderating by an independent person. He called for 10 debates, starting next Wednesday or Thursday.
Plouffe said Obama finds the idea "appealing and one that would allow a great conversation to take place about the need to change the direction of this country." But he recommended a "format that is less structured and lengthier than the McCain campaign suggests."
The idea of long town hall meetings, Bates said, could be aimed at making the older McCain look more exhausted than Obama after a very long session. The seven Lincoln-Douglas debates, he said, lasted for several hours and even all day.
McCain, who faces a tremendous fundraising disadvantage, the town halls provide free media exposure.
Both candidates are almost certain to pivot toward the center, aiming to win over the estimated 25 to 30 percent of voters who are not devoted partisans. Research shows that debates change the minds of five to seven percent of voters, more than enough to determine an election.