• If you are having problems logging in please use the Contact Us in the lower right hand corner of the forum page for assistance.

Montana- Definitely Going "Purple"

A

Anonymous

Guest
Definitely becoming a diverse state(whether thats good or bad :???: )--Democrat Governor numbers way up- while Republican State legislators numbers up...Republican Representative a shoe in- while Republican Senator will likely be out the door (trailing in all polls)...Voters highly approve of building refinerys, but strongly are against coalbed methane development....Verry Interesting....Looks like Montana no longer follows either party line- and now votes the person....

----------------------------------

MSU-B poll shows Tester leading
Burns behind by 11 percent in statewide survey of likely voters

By MARY PICKETT
Of The Gazette Staff

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Jon Tester leads incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns by 11 percentage points in a Montana State University-Billings poll released Wednesday.

Forty-six percent of the 409 Montanans surveyed by the poll said they would vote for Tester and 35 percent for Burns, a Republican. Libertarian Stan Jones was supported by about 5 percent of voters, and nearly 14 percent were undecided.


The statewide, random-sample telephone survey was conducted last week by MSU-Billings sociology and political science students.

Students spent about 20 hours working the phones during the survey, said Jared Sonsteng, a 21-year-old MSU-Billings junior. Only adult Montanans who said they were registered to vote and likely to vote in the upcoming general election were questioned. Poll results have a plus-or-minus margin of error of 5 percent.

During a Wednesday press conference, MSU-Billings sociology professor Joe Floyd said the purpose of the survey is to give students experience in conducting an actual political poll.

This is the only class in Montana in which students do political science polling, said Craig Wilson, a political science professor who, along with Floyd, directed the survey.

Only part of the poll's results were released Wednesday. The rest of the poll results, which include the U.S. House race, will be announced today.

The survey covered several questions about the Burns-Tester campaign, including which candidate was running the most negative race. About 38 percent said Burns, nearly 18 percent said Tester and about 29 percent said both candidates.

Voters said Burns was less likely to raise taxes, would be better at getting federal funds for Montana and do better at dealing with international terrorism than Tester, yet Tester was favored overall by more voters.

"Something else is going on that makes them want to vote for Tester," Floyd said.

Campaigns usually start off with "warm and fuzzy" messages about a candidate before addressing difficult political issues, Wilson said.

"Burns had to start out blasting (indicted lobbyist Jack) Abramoff and didn't get off on a positive step that candidates like to get," Wilson said.

In the MSU-Billings poll, about 38 percent of voters surveyed said Burns' relationship with Abramoff was related to personal ethics, and about 35 percent said it was the result of a political mistake instead of a character issue.

Although not as adept at staging publicity stunts as Gov. Brian Schweitzer was during his campaign for governor in 2004, Tester has benefited from Burns' "misspeaks," Wilson said.

Burns' chewing out of firefighters at the Billings airport may have been the last straw, Floyd said.

Compared with a poll taken last year, Burns' support among Republicans has eroded some.

The MSU-Billings poll found that nearly 13 percent of all of Tester's supporters were Republican. Burns voters included only about 6 percent Democrats.

Voter turnout on Election Day will be extremely important in deciding this Senate race, Wilson said.

Asked if Montana was more predominately Democratic or Republican, Wilson said the MSU-Billings poll still found more Republicans than Democrats, although there is movement toward the Democratic Party.

That said, state residents remain hard to pin down politically.

"Montanans are notorious ticket splitters," Wilson said. "A moderate Democrat like Schweitzer can do well."


The poll also tracked a continuing decline in President George Bush's popularity among Montanans.

Since an MSU-Billings poll taken in 2001 showed 87 percent of Montanans approved of the job Bush was doing, the president's job performance has slipped each year. The latest poll found that only about 45 percent of state residents thought he was doing a good job.

When asked if they had supported the U.S. decision to go to war in Iraq, more than 48 percent said they opposed it, and about 45 percent supported it.

One of the student pollsters, David Maldonado, 25, said he particularly was interested in the results of a question about a military draft. Nearly 56 percent of those surveyed opposed a reinstatement of a draft, and nearly 34 percent supported it.

Maldonado wants to break out those surveyed by age to compare how voters living through the Vietnam War responded to that question compared with younger Montanans.

Other poll results included:

When asked if illegal immigrants should be granted amnesty, nearly 68 percent residents said no and nearly 19 percent said yes.

Nearly 43 percent said the Patriot Act was a necessary component in the war on terror. Thirty-five percent said it should be repealed.

----------------------------------------------------

Governor's approval rating growing, Rehberg holds big lead
By The Associated Press

HELENA - A large majority of voters approve of the job Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer has done, but the biggest share still plans to vote for a Republican in their local state House races next month, results of a poll released Thursday show.

The poll, conducted by the Montana State University-Billings political science department, sampled 409 registered voters who said they were very likely to cast ballots in the November election. The telephone survey was conducted Oct. 10-12 and Oct. 14-15 and has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.

Seventy-seven percent of those surveyed said they approved of the job Schweitzer has done, while only 12 percent disapproved and 11 percent said they were undecided.

The same poll a year ago showed Schweitzer with a 69 percent approval rating. In the race for U.S. House, Republican incumbent Rep. Denny Rehberg leads Democratic challenger Monica Lindeen 53 percent to 30 percent, with Libertarian Mike Fellows garnering 2 percent, and 15 percent of respondents undecided.

Respondents were asked whether they planned to vote for a Republican or Democrat in their Montana state House race. Forty-three percent said they intended to vote for the Republican candidate, while 38 percent said they would vote for the Democrat, 14 percent were undecided, 3 percent said they would choose neither party and 3 percent said "other."

Respondents were also asked their opinions on several initiatives on the Nov. 7 ballot. Initiative 151, which would raise the state minimum wage to $6.15 an hour and include annual cost-of-living increases, appeared to garner the most support, with 76 percent of respondents saying they would vote for the measure, 14 percent opposed it and 9 percent were undecided.

Initiative 153, which would prevent state government officials from becoming lobbyists for two years after leaving office, also appeared to win strong support. Seventy-one percent said they favored it, while 18 percent were against and 11 percent were undecided.

Constitutional Amendment 43, which changes title of the state auditor to state insurance commissioner was opposed by 44 percent, supported by 26 percent and 30 percent were undecided.

Pollsters also asked voters their views on several issues recently making headlines. Most, 74 percent, support the building of new oil refineries in the state, while 14 percent opposed any such development and 12 percent were undecided, the poll found.

Only 20 percent said they support increased coal-bed methane development, 61 percent said more environmental study is needed, 11 percent opposed development and 8 percent were undecided.

Most, 58 percent, said public school curriculum isn't good enough, but they were split on whether public schools are adequately funded. Forty-eight percent said there are not and 45 percent said they are. Seven percent said they were overfunded.
 

Faster horses

Well-known member
Focus on the Family did a recent mailing about the candidates.
Before you vote for Tester you would want to look into their
findings. Even with his black eye, they support Conrad over Tester.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Faster horses said:
Focus on the Family did a recent mailing about the candidates.
Before you vote for Tester you would want to look into their
findings. Even with his black eye, they support Conrad over Tester.

To me even Stan Jones (Libertarian) would get my vote before Conrad...The only way we will ever clean out that cesspool in D.C. is to start kicking out these guys that get caught involved in illegal, unethical, or questionable activities.....And to me changing or selling your vote or position for money is unethical....
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
I know the Libertarian don't stand a chance, but I think there are quite a few Republicans that are voting for him because they can't put up with Conrads shenanigans anymore...And this is the reason I don't think Conrad stands a chance anymore--But like Cowpuncher said in the other post- there is nobody to blame except the National Republican Party and the State Party, that didn't go in there and clean their house up- and run and support a viable candidate...Rehberg would have been a shoo-in if they'd have convinced Conrad to quietly retire....

Few days ago there were about 20 of us discussing this election at the coffee shop- actually came about because several (me included) had received a supposed phone Poll about the election- but once you said you weren't voting for Burns, it started going into things against Tester- then would ask you again if you were still not going to vote for Burns- went on like this until I hung up...Poll hell- It was just a snidely way to campaign....And on top of it the gal could hardly speak English :roll: Probably Conrads Quatemalan gardners wife :lol: Phone # was 406-000-0000- but I can't get a listing from 411- only that its an 800 number.....

Anyway in our coffee shop discussion it sounded like a few of the Republicans were voting Jones-- with several voting Tester and only the old dyed in the wool always vote straight Republicans voting Burns...But the worst comment of the bunch came from a dyed in the wool Democrat- who said he was voting for Burns- said "Conrad had proven he was crook enough to operate in D.C., so with his senority he should be able to steal us lots of funding for the state" :roll: And he was flat serious......
 

IL Rancher

Well-known member
I voted Libertarian in the last senate election in Illinois... It was kind of a protest vote against the republican party in this state, Obama was going to win so my vote was basically meaningless.. I actually liked The Libs platform except for his legalization of pot.. We had 4 guys running in that election.. can't remeber what the fourth party was.. It might have been Populist but I don't think so.

I think I was the only one in my township who voted for the Lib... Lol..Oh well.
 

Red Robin

Well-known member
IL Rancher said:
I voted Libertarian in the last senate election in Illinois... It was kind of a protest vote against the republican party in this state, Obama was going to win so my vote was basically meaningless.. I actually liked The Libs platform except for his legalization of pot.. We had 4 guys running in that election.. can't remeber what the fourth party was.. It might have been Populist but I don't think so.

I think I was the only one in my township who voted for the Lib... Lol..Oh well.
...and you are saying that ranger rick and the weekly reader didn't have an effect on you??? :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
 

IL Rancher

Well-known member
LOL, I am just not a big fan of bringing in Alan Keyes 6 weeks before the election to run because the Republican canidate who won the primaries was implicated in divorce papers for being a sexual deviant who wanted his wife to fool around with other gals and guys while he watched... I would have rather have them actually take a resident of the state, like the guy who came in second in the primaries who was running hard against illegal immigration, Jim Oberweiss and let him run... He would have lost too but at least it wouldn't have been an embarrassment to the party.

Oh, I like a lot of what Libertarians stand for... No government regulation of anything... The government that governs least governs best is the old saying.... Of course, this would be a disaster in its own right but in my opinion the republican party screwed up and they didn't deserve my vote but I sure the heck wasn't going to give it a Democrat from Chicago.

The republican party in Illinois will take years to recover from the George Ryan indictment on the curroption charges. Of course, his dem successor is following in his footsteps it looks like so that could help.

Oh, and never had the weekly reader in my school RR.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Cal said:
Just remember that you third party voters gave us eight years of Clinton.

That is true- but I always wonder what direction this country would have taken if old Ross had won....
 

Faster horses

Well-known member
And I have always wondered how our country would be now IF
Barry Goldwater would have won long ago.

He was right on, only folks weren't ready to hear what he had to say.
Now that man was a STATESMAN!!!
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Faster horses said:
And I have always wondered how our country would be now IF
Barry Goldwater would have won long ago.

He was right on, only folks weren't ready to hear what he had to say.
Now that man was a STATESMAN!!!

Goldwater was actually one of the first candidates with many Libertarian views-- and these views on limiting government involvement in sexual matters and abortion helped lose him the election by alienating the Christian right...Many were also afraid that with his "hawkish" views ( Major General in Air Force Reserve) he would use the A Bomb on Russia, China, or in Vietnam...But I'll bet he wouldn't have micromanaged the Vietnam war and let so many die unecessarily like LBJ did....

He was too honest about politics and politicians to make it - calling a spade a spade...Goldwater disliked Lyndon Johnson (who he said "used every dirty trick in the bag"), and Richard "trickie dickie" Nixon , whom he called "the most dishonest individual I have ever met in my life".

But I think he was right on...Just too far ahead of the times.....
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Looks like the Republicans are deserting Conrad--But its kind of late...The National and State Repubs should have done this before he filed for re-election and allowed the Montana voters a viable choice...The way it is now you either vote Libertarian (that don't stand a chance), an unproven Populist Democrat, or a proven Crook that trifles away our tax dollars for frivolous projects in return for personal campaign contributions...What a choice... :roll:

---------------------------------------


Horse Sense: National GOP's dedication to Burns now in question
By Charles S. Johnson
Horse Sense

HELENA - The rumor flying through political circles is that national Republicans have all but given up on Sen. Conrad Burns' re-election chances.

As the rumor goes, these national Republican groups are instead spending their money and resources to help Senate candidates in other states.

Republican officials and Burns' campaign chief insist it is not true.

However, the National Republican Senatorial Commit-tee has not spent a penny on television or radio advertisements on behalf of Burns since Aug. 7. Burns is locked in a tight race against Democrat Jon Tester.


http://www.billingsgazette.net/articles/2006/10/22/news/state/50-horse.txt
 

Faster horses

Well-known member
The race between Burns and Tester made National TV. They (FOX)
was at the NILE reporting on the race between the two. It's their
feeling that how this race turns out will be what happens all over America.
They did say that earlier Tester had a big point lead, but that lead
is narrowing...

Gonna be interesting.

Conrad Burns is one of the founders of the NILE, 39 year ago.

I just can't vote for Tester.
 

RoperAB

Well-known member
FH&OT
Goldwater was that guy from AZ wasnt he? They had a really good show on Biography about him a few months ago.
Post WW2 everybody was scared of war. Public didnt understand the whole Peace through strength <Reagan> concept.
 

Faster horses

Well-known member
Yep, Goldwater was that guy from AZ...

The first time I heard him speak was at the start of the Viet Nam war.
It was on national television and I don't remember how it came
about. I just remember they were denying there was a war in
Viet Nam. He stood up and said, "Ask any mother who has a son
in Viet Nam if there is a war there or not."

Such a simple statement, but it got everyone's attention.
 

IL Rancher

Well-known member
Beleive it or not but someone told me that good old hillary campaigned for Goldwater way back when... my mother in law is friends with some folks who went to school with her back when she was president of the young republicans club in her high school... Had some other things to say about her but that was back in high school and we all know how that is..
 
Top