A
Anonymous
Guest
Definitely becoming a diverse state(whether thats good or bad :???: )--Democrat Governor numbers way up- while Republican State legislators numbers up...Republican Representative a shoe in- while Republican Senator will likely be out the door (trailing in all polls)...Voters highly approve of building refinerys, but strongly are against coalbed methane development....Verry Interesting....Looks like Montana no longer follows either party line- and now votes the person....
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MSU-B poll shows Tester leading
Burns behind by 11 percent in statewide survey of likely voters
By MARY PICKETT
Of The Gazette Staff
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Jon Tester leads incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns by 11 percentage points in a Montana State University-Billings poll released Wednesday.
Forty-six percent of the 409 Montanans surveyed by the poll said they would vote for Tester and 35 percent for Burns, a Republican. Libertarian Stan Jones was supported by about 5 percent of voters, and nearly 14 percent were undecided.
The statewide, random-sample telephone survey was conducted last week by MSU-Billings sociology and political science students.
Students spent about 20 hours working the phones during the survey, said Jared Sonsteng, a 21-year-old MSU-Billings junior. Only adult Montanans who said they were registered to vote and likely to vote in the upcoming general election were questioned. Poll results have a plus-or-minus margin of error of 5 percent.
During a Wednesday press conference, MSU-Billings sociology professor Joe Floyd said the purpose of the survey is to give students experience in conducting an actual political poll.
This is the only class in Montana in which students do political science polling, said Craig Wilson, a political science professor who, along with Floyd, directed the survey.
Only part of the poll's results were released Wednesday. The rest of the poll results, which include the U.S. House race, will be announced today.
The survey covered several questions about the Burns-Tester campaign, including which candidate was running the most negative race. About 38 percent said Burns, nearly 18 percent said Tester and about 29 percent said both candidates.
Voters said Burns was less likely to raise taxes, would be better at getting federal funds for Montana and do better at dealing with international terrorism than Tester, yet Tester was favored overall by more voters.
"Something else is going on that makes them want to vote for Tester," Floyd said.
Campaigns usually start off with "warm and fuzzy" messages about a candidate before addressing difficult political issues, Wilson said.
"Burns had to start out blasting (indicted lobbyist Jack) Abramoff and didn't get off on a positive step that candidates like to get," Wilson said.
In the MSU-Billings poll, about 38 percent of voters surveyed said Burns' relationship with Abramoff was related to personal ethics, and about 35 percent said it was the result of a political mistake instead of a character issue.
Although not as adept at staging publicity stunts as Gov. Brian Schweitzer was during his campaign for governor in 2004, Tester has benefited from Burns' "misspeaks," Wilson said.
Burns' chewing out of firefighters at the Billings airport may have been the last straw, Floyd said.
Compared with a poll taken last year, Burns' support among Republicans has eroded some.
The MSU-Billings poll found that nearly 13 percent of all of Tester's supporters were Republican. Burns voters included only about 6 percent Democrats.
Voter turnout on Election Day will be extremely important in deciding this Senate race, Wilson said.
Asked if Montana was more predominately Democratic or Republican, Wilson said the MSU-Billings poll still found more Republicans than Democrats, although there is movement toward the Democratic Party.
That said, state residents remain hard to pin down politically.
"Montanans are notorious ticket splitters," Wilson said. "A moderate Democrat like Schweitzer can do well."
The poll also tracked a continuing decline in President George Bush's popularity among Montanans.
Since an MSU-Billings poll taken in 2001 showed 87 percent of Montanans approved of the job Bush was doing, the president's job performance has slipped each year. The latest poll found that only about 45 percent of state residents thought he was doing a good job.
When asked if they had supported the U.S. decision to go to war in Iraq, more than 48 percent said they opposed it, and about 45 percent supported it.
One of the student pollsters, David Maldonado, 25, said he particularly was interested in the results of a question about a military draft. Nearly 56 percent of those surveyed opposed a reinstatement of a draft, and nearly 34 percent supported it.
Maldonado wants to break out those surveyed by age to compare how voters living through the Vietnam War responded to that question compared with younger Montanans.
Other poll results included:
When asked if illegal immigrants should be granted amnesty, nearly 68 percent residents said no and nearly 19 percent said yes.
Nearly 43 percent said the Patriot Act was a necessary component in the war on terror. Thirty-five percent said it should be repealed.
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Governor's approval rating growing, Rehberg holds big lead
By The Associated Press
HELENA - A large majority of voters approve of the job Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer has done, but the biggest share still plans to vote for a Republican in their local state House races next month, results of a poll released Thursday show.
The poll, conducted by the Montana State University-Billings political science department, sampled 409 registered voters who said they were very likely to cast ballots in the November election. The telephone survey was conducted Oct. 10-12 and Oct. 14-15 and has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.
Seventy-seven percent of those surveyed said they approved of the job Schweitzer has done, while only 12 percent disapproved and 11 percent said they were undecided.
The same poll a year ago showed Schweitzer with a 69 percent approval rating. In the race for U.S. House, Republican incumbent Rep. Denny Rehberg leads Democratic challenger Monica Lindeen 53 percent to 30 percent, with Libertarian Mike Fellows garnering 2 percent, and 15 percent of respondents undecided.
Respondents were asked whether they planned to vote for a Republican or Democrat in their Montana state House race. Forty-three percent said they intended to vote for the Republican candidate, while 38 percent said they would vote for the Democrat, 14 percent were undecided, 3 percent said they would choose neither party and 3 percent said "other."
Respondents were also asked their opinions on several initiatives on the Nov. 7 ballot. Initiative 151, which would raise the state minimum wage to $6.15 an hour and include annual cost-of-living increases, appeared to garner the most support, with 76 percent of respondents saying they would vote for the measure, 14 percent opposed it and 9 percent were undecided.
Initiative 153, which would prevent state government officials from becoming lobbyists for two years after leaving office, also appeared to win strong support. Seventy-one percent said they favored it, while 18 percent were against and 11 percent were undecided.
Constitutional Amendment 43, which changes title of the state auditor to state insurance commissioner was opposed by 44 percent, supported by 26 percent and 30 percent were undecided.
Pollsters also asked voters their views on several issues recently making headlines. Most, 74 percent, support the building of new oil refineries in the state, while 14 percent opposed any such development and 12 percent were undecided, the poll found.
Only 20 percent said they support increased coal-bed methane development, 61 percent said more environmental study is needed, 11 percent opposed development and 8 percent were undecided.
Most, 58 percent, said public school curriculum isn't good enough, but they were split on whether public schools are adequately funded. Forty-eight percent said there are not and 45 percent said they are. Seven percent said they were overfunded.
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MSU-B poll shows Tester leading
Burns behind by 11 percent in statewide survey of likely voters
By MARY PICKETT
Of The Gazette Staff
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Jon Tester leads incumbent Sen. Conrad Burns by 11 percentage points in a Montana State University-Billings poll released Wednesday.
Forty-six percent of the 409 Montanans surveyed by the poll said they would vote for Tester and 35 percent for Burns, a Republican. Libertarian Stan Jones was supported by about 5 percent of voters, and nearly 14 percent were undecided.
The statewide, random-sample telephone survey was conducted last week by MSU-Billings sociology and political science students.
Students spent about 20 hours working the phones during the survey, said Jared Sonsteng, a 21-year-old MSU-Billings junior. Only adult Montanans who said they were registered to vote and likely to vote in the upcoming general election were questioned. Poll results have a plus-or-minus margin of error of 5 percent.
During a Wednesday press conference, MSU-Billings sociology professor Joe Floyd said the purpose of the survey is to give students experience in conducting an actual political poll.
This is the only class in Montana in which students do political science polling, said Craig Wilson, a political science professor who, along with Floyd, directed the survey.
Only part of the poll's results were released Wednesday. The rest of the poll results, which include the U.S. House race, will be announced today.
The survey covered several questions about the Burns-Tester campaign, including which candidate was running the most negative race. About 38 percent said Burns, nearly 18 percent said Tester and about 29 percent said both candidates.
Voters said Burns was less likely to raise taxes, would be better at getting federal funds for Montana and do better at dealing with international terrorism than Tester, yet Tester was favored overall by more voters.
"Something else is going on that makes them want to vote for Tester," Floyd said.
Campaigns usually start off with "warm and fuzzy" messages about a candidate before addressing difficult political issues, Wilson said.
"Burns had to start out blasting (indicted lobbyist Jack) Abramoff and didn't get off on a positive step that candidates like to get," Wilson said.
In the MSU-Billings poll, about 38 percent of voters surveyed said Burns' relationship with Abramoff was related to personal ethics, and about 35 percent said it was the result of a political mistake instead of a character issue.
Although not as adept at staging publicity stunts as Gov. Brian Schweitzer was during his campaign for governor in 2004, Tester has benefited from Burns' "misspeaks," Wilson said.
Burns' chewing out of firefighters at the Billings airport may have been the last straw, Floyd said.
Compared with a poll taken last year, Burns' support among Republicans has eroded some.
The MSU-Billings poll found that nearly 13 percent of all of Tester's supporters were Republican. Burns voters included only about 6 percent Democrats.
Voter turnout on Election Day will be extremely important in deciding this Senate race, Wilson said.
Asked if Montana was more predominately Democratic or Republican, Wilson said the MSU-Billings poll still found more Republicans than Democrats, although there is movement toward the Democratic Party.
That said, state residents remain hard to pin down politically.
"Montanans are notorious ticket splitters," Wilson said. "A moderate Democrat like Schweitzer can do well."
The poll also tracked a continuing decline in President George Bush's popularity among Montanans.
Since an MSU-Billings poll taken in 2001 showed 87 percent of Montanans approved of the job Bush was doing, the president's job performance has slipped each year. The latest poll found that only about 45 percent of state residents thought he was doing a good job.
When asked if they had supported the U.S. decision to go to war in Iraq, more than 48 percent said they opposed it, and about 45 percent supported it.
One of the student pollsters, David Maldonado, 25, said he particularly was interested in the results of a question about a military draft. Nearly 56 percent of those surveyed opposed a reinstatement of a draft, and nearly 34 percent supported it.
Maldonado wants to break out those surveyed by age to compare how voters living through the Vietnam War responded to that question compared with younger Montanans.
Other poll results included:
When asked if illegal immigrants should be granted amnesty, nearly 68 percent residents said no and nearly 19 percent said yes.
Nearly 43 percent said the Patriot Act was a necessary component in the war on terror. Thirty-five percent said it should be repealed.
----------------------------------------------------
Governor's approval rating growing, Rehberg holds big lead
By The Associated Press
HELENA - A large majority of voters approve of the job Democratic Gov. Brian Schweitzer has done, but the biggest share still plans to vote for a Republican in their local state House races next month, results of a poll released Thursday show.
The poll, conducted by the Montana State University-Billings political science department, sampled 409 registered voters who said they were very likely to cast ballots in the November election. The telephone survey was conducted Oct. 10-12 and Oct. 14-15 and has a margin of error of 5 percentage points.
Seventy-seven percent of those surveyed said they approved of the job Schweitzer has done, while only 12 percent disapproved and 11 percent said they were undecided.
The same poll a year ago showed Schweitzer with a 69 percent approval rating. In the race for U.S. House, Republican incumbent Rep. Denny Rehberg leads Democratic challenger Monica Lindeen 53 percent to 30 percent, with Libertarian Mike Fellows garnering 2 percent, and 15 percent of respondents undecided.
Respondents were asked whether they planned to vote for a Republican or Democrat in their Montana state House race. Forty-three percent said they intended to vote for the Republican candidate, while 38 percent said they would vote for the Democrat, 14 percent were undecided, 3 percent said they would choose neither party and 3 percent said "other."
Respondents were also asked their opinions on several initiatives on the Nov. 7 ballot. Initiative 151, which would raise the state minimum wage to $6.15 an hour and include annual cost-of-living increases, appeared to garner the most support, with 76 percent of respondents saying they would vote for the measure, 14 percent opposed it and 9 percent were undecided.
Initiative 153, which would prevent state government officials from becoming lobbyists for two years after leaving office, also appeared to win strong support. Seventy-one percent said they favored it, while 18 percent were against and 11 percent were undecided.
Constitutional Amendment 43, which changes title of the state auditor to state insurance commissioner was opposed by 44 percent, supported by 26 percent and 30 percent were undecided.
Pollsters also asked voters their views on several issues recently making headlines. Most, 74 percent, support the building of new oil refineries in the state, while 14 percent opposed any such development and 12 percent were undecided, the poll found.
Only 20 percent said they support increased coal-bed methane development, 61 percent said more environmental study is needed, 11 percent opposed development and 8 percent were undecided.
Most, 58 percent, said public school curriculum isn't good enough, but they were split on whether public schools are adequately funded. Forty-eight percent said there are not and 45 percent said they are. Seven percent said they were overfunded.