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Must Be a Democrat Pre-election Conspiracy?

A

Anonymous

Guest
Halloween treat: Record stock market close

By Heather Long @byHeatherLong October 31, 2014: 10:17 AM ET


NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

Who needs candy on Halloween when the stock market is giving out such big treats.

Take a look at the headline numbers: The S&P 500 is now up 9% for the year. No, that's not the 30% gain we saw in 2013, but it's still very solid.

Those who stayed in the market despite the turmoil earlier in the month are having an extra Happy Halloween.

The Nasdaq is up nearly 11% for the year, and the Dow is almost 5% higher.

This October rebound has been so sweet that the Dow and S&P 500 both closed at record highs (17,390 for the Dow and 2,018 for the S&P 500). The Nasdaq didn't set a record today, but it's at its highest point other than the March 2000 Dot-Com peak.

Like the house that gives out the giant candy bars to trick-or-treaters, the Bank of Japan gave the market an extra large boost Friday by announcing additional stimulus measures. The move was unexpected, and markets around the world are surging on the news.

The Dow jumped 195 points Friday, putting an exclamation point on the month.

This year's rally might not be done yet. According to CNNMoney's survey of investment strategists, stocks could end the year around this level or a little higher.


So what drove the big turnaround? It's pretty straightforward: earnings, earnings, earnings.

Investors like when companies beat on earnings, sales and profits, and by and large, that's what the market is getting. Over 75% of companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far have beaten analysts' estimates, according to S&P Capital IQ.

Businesses also give a sense of what they expect in the months ahead. Again, with a couple of notable exceptions such as IBM (IBM, Tech30) and Amazon (AMZN, Tech30), the outlook isn't looking too bad. All 10 sectors of the S&P 500 are predicted to show earnings growth this quarter.

Even some of the riskier "momentum" stocks are delivering. Trader favorite GoPro (GPRO) jumped 13% Friday after the company reported strong growth. and Expedia (EXPE) rose more than 5% after reporting a bump in bookings.

The overall picture is solid, and that is making investors a lot less nervous.

The VIX volatility index -- the market's fear gauge -- is a good reminder of just how much the market panic has subsided. As fears about everything from Ebola to a stalling Europe to a possible early rise interest rates spooked investors, the VIX spiked.

It peaked mid-month -- briefly hitting the 30 mark on its worst day -- and is now back under 15, a very low mark.
stock market volatility


What's next? Going forward, there are still headwinds, but the consensus is that the U.S. economy is growing and companies and stocks will continue to benefit.

A Goldman Sachs research note Thursday predicts 3% GDP growth the next few years. While Europe and other parts of the world remain troubled, Goldman reminds that foreign sales account for about a third of revenue for S&P 500 companies.

That means the vast majority of the revenue is still coming from America. As long as the U.S. economy stays on track, modest optimism will continue.

How can this be- some of you folks have insinuated that in your parts of the country half the population is in the poor house :???: How can they be talking about record highs and positive growth :???:[/u]
 

Mike

Well-known member
You're too stupid to understand, but I'll paste a little something that might help:

Inevitably, seeing numbers like the Dow rise should feel good. Our gross domestic product isn't going up, having barely scraped out 0.1% last quarter. Our personal income isn't going up, as wages are stagnating. Our employment numbers aren't going up, as we're still short three million jobs lost in the recession. Our 401Ks are dispersed through the stock market and it's nice to feel a little rich, or at least better off. When many of the major economic indicators provide only a wheezing malaise, the Dow high provides a little spot of irrational exuberance that is a welcome antidote.

But don't trust the Dow. It doesn't have your best interests at heart. It lies to you. It's that narcissist who's always preening and trying to look powerful when in fact it barely deserves an invitation to the party.

Most Americans know that the Dow is composed of a basket of 30 industrial stocks that are largely impervious to the struggles of ordinary Americans. If you separated these stocks, their rise would not be exciting.[/b It's hard to picture a family driving back from the food bank – poverty is also at all-time highs in America, by the way – chanting "three cheers for Alcoa! Let's hear it for Caterpillar!" Americans, no matter how patriotic, don't pull out the pom-poms when it's a good quarter for Cisco. We just wait quietly for the riches to trickle down, for the companies to start hiring and for the rest of us to feel rich.[/b]

That trickle-down is not happening, and we know it's not happening. Companies are sitting on $1.4tn of cash, according to the Federal Reserve. "That number, a record high, equates to almost 9% of US GDP," wrote JP Morgan strategist Michael Hood in December. "The cash stockpile has not risen enormously over the past year but it is roughly double the amount from 10 years earlier."


Hood explains: it's not that companies are hoarding money; it's that they are making so much money there aren't enough places to spend it. American companies are in a golden age of profitability, even as the unemployment crisis continues and many ordinary Americans find it difficult to either save or borrow money. That hasn't changed for three years, and there's no reason to believe it will.

There are other reasons not to get too excited about the Dow. The most important is that the Dow is not "the market", no matter what you may read. The Dow is composed of 30 stocks; they're not the biggest or most significant 30, so you won't see Google or Apple or Amazon there. They're also picked to give a sickly-sweet picture of health. The Dow stocks are not representative of both good and bad; when they start to stumble or go through big corporate changes, like Kraft, AIG and Citigroup did, they get kicked out of the index.


There's another reason to take the Dow's move upward with a grain of salt: what goes up, must come down. Historically, just when the Dow looks to have hit its most enthusiastic highs, a crash is around the corner.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Mike said:
You're too stupid to understand, but I'll paste a little something that might help:

Inevitably, seeing numbers like the Dow rise should feel good. Our gross domestic product isn't going up, having barely scraped out 0.1% last quarter. Our personal income isn't going up, as wages are stagnating. Our employment numbers aren't going up, as we're still short three million jobs lost in the recession. Our 401Ks are dispersed through the stock market and it's nice to feel a little rich, or at least better off. When many of the major economic indicators provide only a wheezing malaise, the Dow high provides a little spot of irrational exuberance that is a welcome antidote.

But don't trust the Dow. It doesn't have your best interests at heart. It lies to you. It's that narcissist who's always preening and trying to look powerful when in fact it barely deserves an invitation to the party.

Most Americans know that the Dow is composed of a basket of 30 industrial stocks that are largely impervious to the struggles of ordinary Americans. If you separated these stocks, their rise would not be exciting.[/b It's hard to picture a family driving back from the food bank – poverty is also at all-time highs in America, by the way – chanting "three cheers for Alcoa! Let's hear it for Caterpillar!" Americans, no matter how patriotic, don't pull out the pom-poms when it's a good quarter for Cisco. We just wait quietly for the riches to trickle down, for the companies to start hiring and for the rest of us to feel rich.[/b]

That trickle-down is not happening, and we know it's not happening. Companies are sitting on $1.4tn of cash, according to the Federal Reserve. "That number, a record high, equates to almost 9% of US GDP," wrote JP Morgan strategist Michael Hood in December. "The cash stockpile has not risen enormously over the past year but it is roughly double the amount from 10 years earlier."


Hood explains: it's not that companies are hoarding money; it's that they are making so much money there aren't enough places to spend it. American companies are in a golden age of profitability, even as the unemployment crisis continues and many ordinary Americans find it difficult to either save or borrow money. That hasn't changed for three years, and there's no reason to believe it will.

There are other reasons not to get too excited about the Dow. The most important is that the Dow is not "the market", no matter what you may read. The Dow is composed of 30 stocks; they're not the biggest or most significant 30, so you won't see Google or Apple or Amazon there. They're also picked to give a sickly-sweet picture of health. The Dow stocks are not representative of both good and bad; when they start to stumble or go through big corporate changes, like Kraft, AIG and Citigroup did, they get kicked out of the index.


There's another reason to take the Dow's move upward with a grain of salt: what goes up, must come down. Historically, just when the Dow looks to have hit its most enthusiastic highs, a crash is around the corner.


This October rebound has been so sweet that the Dow and S&P 500 both closed at record highs (17,390 for the Dow and 2,018 for the S&P 500 ). The Nasdaq didn't set a record today, but it's at its highest point other than the March 2000 Dot-Com peak.

Looks to me its not just the Dow- its pretty strong across the boards- especially in the S&P...
 

Mike

Well-known member
So.............throw a pile of money in it if you feel froggish. I did notice a "Health" insurance company in the Dow made extraordinary gains... :lol:
Just as planned in ObamaCare. :lol:
 

Brad S

Well-known member
OT what's the difference between the Russell and Dow indexes?

Btw, I too live in a red state as do most on here, and the economies on most red states are doing pretty well despite Obama socialism. OT, there are over 300 million people in the US so sound republican states can't compensate for all the socialist enclaves.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Brad S said:
OT what's the difference between the Russell and Dow indexes?

Btw, I too live in a red state as do most on here, and the economies on most red states are doing pretty well despite Obama socialism. OT, there are over 300 million people in the US so sound republican states can't compensate for all the socialist enclaves.

Essentially the Russell 3000 looks at a lot more companies and the way they play out amongst themselves globally...

And its sounding like they are pretty upbeat on the recovery from the Bush Bust and the future of the US economy too.... :)

Raging -- or Aging -- Bull? U.S. Equities Led Global Markets in the Five Years Since Emerging From Recession

Published: Oct 31, 2014 10:35 a.m. ET

0
SEATTLE, WA, Oct 31, 2014 (Marketwired via COMTEX) -- Since the U.S. emerged from recession five years ago, U.S. equities have led the extended bull run in global equities. October 29, 2014 marked the 5th anniversary of the U.S. emerging from recession, when U.S. Treasury U.S. GDP data showed an annual growth rate of 3.5% for the third quarter of 2009.

In the five years ending October 28, 2014, the Russell 3000(R) Index returned nearly 150%, while broad global developed markets returned 104.8% (the Russell Developed Markets Index
). The U.S. led other global regions during this period, with the Russell Developed Europe Index returning 66.8% and the Russell Asia-Pacific Index returning 63.3%. Although generating positive returns in this same time period, emerging and frontier equity markets also lagged the U.S., with the Russell Frontier(R) Index and the Russell Emerging Markets Index returning 59.1% and 51%, respectively.

Despite the strong rally in global equity markets over the last five years, Russell's team of global strategists recently reaffirmed its belief that the global equity bull market, while aging, is not over yet.
 

Steve

Well-known member
I guess you are ok with the huge wealth transfer from the Federal reserve to wall-street then?

and when inflation erodes your savings you will come back and praise the billionaires who reaped the lion's share of that hidden tax..






besides who needs to help the working class... they can just go on welfare... (sarcasm)
 

Brad S

Well-known member
Very well illustrated OT. You've illustrated you haven't the understanding to draw a link between inflated stocks and a recessive economy. Neither can you understand how macroeconomic inputs are responsible for results. In short, your stupidity explains your voting habits. I don't need the great oracle Borowitz to tell me that an Obama voter is someone that doesn't understand economics.
 

hypocritexposer

Well-known member
Voters aren't buying all the "happy talk", like OT is...

Voters are deeply frustrated with the economy as they head to the polls Tuesday for a midterm election Republicans hope will yield them control of the Senate.

While the unemployment rate is dropping, the economy is expanding and gas prices are below $3 per gallon, polls show that most voters feel the recovery has passed them by.

“We find that most people say they’re falling behind or at best staying even,” said Alec Tyson, a senior researcher at the Pew Research Center. “Even as the overall employment picture may be improving, people aren’t feeling it in their own wages and day-to-day lives.”

The persistent dissatisfaction in year six of President Obama’s term is an ominous sign for Democrats, and could foreshadow major losses for the party on Election Day.

While Obama has increasingly tried to trumpet positive news about the economy, polling shows the message hasn’t resonated with voters.

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/222471-voters-disgruntled-with-obama-economy


That’s party because wages aren’t outpacing inflation, according to Josh Bivens, research and policy director at the Economic Policy Institute.

“Six years really should be enough time to get people’s economic lives back on track after a recession and we really have not. We obviously have stopped the downward spiral, stabilized things, we even got some growth, but we still are really far from a full economic recovery,” he said.

A full economic recovery would feature an unemployment rate near 4 percent — it’s now at 5.9 percent — and wage growth at about double the rate that’s being seen now, Bivens said.

Some experts noted that, historically, there has been a time lag between gains in the economy and improvement in peoples’ bank accounts.

“We’ve seen this before. You get close to the election, you’ve had a long period of anxiety, things start to pick up and it doesn’t happen in time to benefit the party in power,” said Kathleen Hall Jamieson, director of the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania.

Jamieson said the economy started to pick up at the end of the 1992 presidential campaign, but voters weren’t feeling the benefits and didn’t give credit to President George H.W. Bush.

And while leading economic indicators might on the surface show progress, Jamieson said there are other factors fueling voter unhappiness, including wild swings in the stock market.

“In light of the recent volatility in the market and the fact that the employment rate is not as high as many people think it needs to be, you can understand why people still feel economically anxious and don’t think they ought to reward incumbents with a hurrah.”


Obama, after taking heat for declaring a “recovery summer” ahead of the 2010 election that never materialized, has walked a fine line of touting gains in the economy while acknowledging that many people aren’t feeling the effects.

With growth picking up, the president has taken a more bullish approach in recent weeks, declaring that the recovery is “real.”

“There's almost no economic measure by which we haven't made substantial progress over this period of time,” Obama said Friday during a roundtable event in Rhode Island. “We're better off than we were. So, look. The progress has been hard … but it's been steady and it's been real.”

Still, the president acknowledged that, “millions of Americans don't yet feel the benefits of a growing economy where it matters most, and that's in their own lives.”

Jamieson said Obama should have made the case for an improving economy more forcefully earlier in the year.

“To the extent that those who are in power are not featuring positive things, they’re minimizing the likelihood that we remember them when we make our evaluation of the economy,” she said.

Democrats have in past election years benefitted from the fact that voters blamed President George W. Bush for the crash of the economy, but that effect has faded now that Obama is well into his second term, Jamieson said.

A series of pre-election surveys have found most voters across the country still identify the economy and jobs as their top concern, with the rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and the Ebola epidemic ranking lower or not at all.

Lara Brown, director of the Political Management Program at The George Washington University, said Democrats should have spent less time in the midterm campaign discussing social issues and more time on the economy.

“The truth of the matter is that, had I been a Democrat, starting this summer, I would have said, ‘Look the American people say they care about the economy, we should make all of our messaging about the economy. Our message should be, ‘It took a long time for us to start recovering. We’re finally starting to recover. Don’t go back to what got us in the whole thing.’ ”

At the same time, Brown said she’s unsure how much that message would have benefitted Democrats. If voters aren’t feeling the economic changes, candidates could have appeared out-of-touch by making the case too strongly.

Angst about the economy has clearly helped tilt Tuesday’s election in the GOP’s favor.

A CBS News poll in the last week found likely voters prefer Republicans on the economy to Democrats by 7 percentage points.

If Republicans win the majority in the Senate and the economy improves even further, both parties will be battling to ensure they get the credit in the all-important presidential year of 2016.

“Who is given credit for that when we have a divided government is going to be very interesting,” Brown said. “I will honestly tell you that I think it’s going to make the 2016 presidential campaign very competitive. I can easily see both sides attempting to claim credit for it.”
 

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