My thoughts on the re-election of Obama

[Whitewing]

Brent Crude Oil today, $123.55/barrel

Everything's fine. $200 oil is nowhere in sight. You may now return to your regular programming.

:roll:

 

[hypocritexposer]

While oil usage and abundance will come to an end, it is a ways off and there is plenty of time for the free market to evolve towards an economy, where oil is still prevalent, but alternative energy slowly takes over as technology allows.

My argument is that in 1985 oil prices were below $10/barrel. Don't know exactly where they are today because I've not looked, but I'm betting they're significantly higher than that and what have we accomplished to transition or evolve to an economy of alternative energy sources? Not much from where I sit.

Again, my point is once the world's oil production crosses the top of the bell curve, the production numbers will fall much more rapidly than most believe. There will be a lot of folks standing around scratching their asses and asked what happened.

I won't be one of them.

I understand. Your ass doesn't get itchy. got it! :lol:



The curve will shift with new technology, if the free market is allowed to develop it, which will flatten out the curve a little.


profit is the mother of innovation and if government was to get out of the way, the curve would shift a little more.

and yes, I agree, it's going to take some time to get used to, on the part of consumers and the economy is not going to have the same historical growth. But at this point, that is not what is holding back the economy of the US.

"we can't Drill baby Drill" is holding it back. and Steve mentioned the larger oil companies versus the smaller ones.....and not to beat a dead horse, but......Regulatory Capture, is a huge issue.

What are your opinions on Canada's economy being 'built" on cheap oil? So far, we are doing okay and maybe that's because we are milking a "cash cow" at present, but we are also slowly working towards alternative energy as tech. allows.

One thing that has not come up in this discussion is geography and the distances needed to be travelled in North America, compared to Europe. And an option that I have not heard discussed previously is tax credits for industry and business that needs to travel longer distances etc., than say the soccer mom in the city of Calgary or any other city, that has acess to mass transit.

Much like "purple fuel", those that use fuel as a necessity might be treated differently than a person that drives 2km to the corner store to pick up a pack of smokes.

 

[Steve]

Well, as the saying goes, fill one hand with crap and one with wishes (magic fuel) and see which one fills first.

.

how can you ignore all the recent discoveries?

while most are small oil compared to the huge finds of a generation ago,.. all are big natural gas producers..

and with that natural gas prices are actually dropping...

your starting to sound as pessimistic as OT used to be...

 

[Whitewing]

New report reveals vast stores of Alaska shale oil and gas

Using new technology, up to 80 trillion cubic feet of natural gas could be produced from North Slope shale, according to a fact sheet of the U.S. Geological Survey report, which has not yet been released. It's also more than double the conventional natural gas reserves said to exist on the North Slope, the largest such resource in the U.S.

Also, the USGS now estimates the slope holds up to 2 billion barrels of shale oil. That would fill the trans-Alaska-pipeline for about a decade at current flow-rates of about 600,000 barrels a day.

High development costs and limited infrastructure have prevented companies from producing shale resources in Alaska, the report notes. But Great Bear Petroleum and Halliburton are exploring for shale oil this winter, and Royale Energy Inc. plans to begin exploring next winter, thanks in part to the state's generous exploration tax credits.

Sean Parnell is the latest Alaska governor to push for a massive pipeline to move that gas. With shale-gas production up sharply in the Lower 48, he supports a gas-line that would run from the North Slope south to somewhere in Southcentral Alaska, where the natural gas would be liquefied and shipped on tankers, perhaps to Asian markets where gas prices are currently high. Even that project, however, would require billions of dollars and the support of Alaska's three largest oil companies -- Exxon Mobil Corp, BP and ConocoPhillips -- all of which hold leases to develop Alaska's conventional gas reserves.

You can post these stories all day long and NOTHING changes. They're all in hard-to-reach, hostile, environmentally sensitive areas and all of them involve high development costs because of limited infrastructure.

These types of play do virtually NOTHING to reduce the cost of a gallon of fuel at the pump.

Steve, this article talks about ESTIMATES of 2 billion barrels of SHALE OIL. What's the world's daily consumption of oil right now....ie, how long would 2 billion barrels dumped on the market last in the global scheme of things at current consumption rates?

 

[Steve]

Brent Crude Oil today, $123.55/barrel

Everything's fine. $200 oil is nowhere in sight. You may now return to your regular programming.

:roll:

uneasiness will cause price spikes.. and I addressed it in my first post on this thread..

BTW,... didn't Norway have a "HUGE" find recently?


something in the range of thirty years of production... and the infrastructure is already in place..

at $150 you would see Exxon run out of the courtroom and start drilling in the Julia field..

 

[hypocritexposer]

You can post these stories all day long and NOTHING changes. They're all in hard-to-reach, hostile, environmentally sensitive areas and all of them involve high development costs because of limited infrastructure.

These types of play do virtually NOTHING to reduce the cost of a gallon of fuel at the pump.

Steve, this article talks about ESTIMATES of 2 billion barrels of SHALE OIL. What's the world's daily consumption of oil right now....ie, how long would 2 billion barrels dumped on the market last in the global scheme of things at current consumption rates?

Damn Venezuelan elitist hay growers with all their new fangled equipment using up all the oil...... :evil: :wink: :lol:

PM sent

 

[Whitewing]

Well, as the saying goes, fill one hand with crap and one with wishes (magic fuel) and see which one fills first.

.

how can you ignore all the recent discoveries?

while most are small oil compared to the huge finds of a generation ago,.. all are big natural gas producers..

and with that natural gas prices are actually dropping...

your starting to sound as pessimistic as OT used to be...

Who's ignoring recent discoveries? I'm saying those discoveries are not enough to provide the juice that the economies of the US, China, India, Japan and countless other industrialized countries will need once daily world oil production numbers begin an irreversible decline.

Pick ANY US oil field you wish Steve and every single one of them has a life span. Production starts slowly, climbs rapidly, peaks, and then declines rapidly.

Again, a field, a state, a country, the world. There is no difference. Production starts slowly, climbs rapidly, peaks, and then begins its decline.

Accept this truth and you'll begin to see things more clearly.

 

[Steve]

New report reveals vast stores of Alaska shale oil and gas

Using new technology, up to 80 trillion cubic feet of natural gas could be produced from North Slope shale, according to a fact sheet of the U.S. Geological Survey report, which has not yet been released. It's also more than double the conventional natural gas reserves said to exist on the North Slope, the largest such resource in the U.S.

Also, the USGS now estimates the slope holds up to 2 billion barrels of shale oil. That would fill the trans-Alaska-pipeline for about a decade at current flow-rates of about 600,000 barrels a day.

High development costs and limited infrastructure have prevented companies from producing shale resources in Alaska, the report notes. But Great Bear Petroleum and Halliburton are exploring for shale oil this winter, and Royale Energy Inc. plans to begin exploring next winter, thanks in part to the state's generous exploration tax credits.

Sean Parnell is the latest Alaska governor to push for a massive pipeline to move that gas. With shale-gas production up sharply in the Lower 48, he supports a gas-line that would run from the North Slope south to somewhere in Southcentral Alaska, where the natural gas would be liquefied and shipped on tankers, perhaps to Asian markets where gas prices are currently high. Even that project, however, would require billions of dollars and the support of Alaska's three largest oil companies -- Exxon Mobil Corp, BP and ConocoPhillips -- all of which hold leases to develop Alaska's conventional gas reserves.

You can post these stories all day long and NOTHING changes. They're all in hard-to-reach, hostile, environmentally sensitive areas and all of them involve high development costs because of limited infrastructure.

These types of play do virtually NOTHING to reduce the cost of a gallon of fuel at the pump.

Steve, this article talks about ESTIMATES of 2 billion barrels of SHALE OIL. What's the world's daily consumption of oil right now....ie, how long would 2 billion barrels dumped on the market last in the global scheme of things at current consumption rates?

did OT hijack your account?

demand isn't the problem.. neither is supply.. right now.. we idled three refineries locally... in fact in some areas there is a glut.. and as of last year we started exporting refined product..

oil production isn't the problem.. Obama is..

 

[Steve]

Well, as the saying goes, fill one hand with crap and one with wishes (magic fuel) and see which one fills first.

.

how can you ignore all the recent discoveries?

while most are small oil compared to the huge finds of a generation ago,.. all are big natural gas producers..

and with that natural gas prices are actually dropping...

your starting to sound as pessimistic as OT used to be...

Who's ignoring recent discoveries? I'm saying those discoveries are not enough to provide the juice that the economies of the US, China, India, Japan and countless other industrialized countries will need once daily world oil production numbers begin an irreversible decline.

Pick ANY US oil field you wish Steve and every single one of them has a life span. Production starts slowly, climbs rapidly, peaks, and then declines rapidly.

Again, a field, a state, a country, the world. There is no difference. Production starts slowly, climbs rapidly, peaks, and then begins its decline.

Accept this truth and you'll begin to see things more clearly.

and even by conservative estimates.. thirty years of oil,.. and several hundred for natural gas.. coal.. who knows.. lots.. 50 to a hundred?

and doesn't even count nuclear and new tech in the next thirty years...

we have plenty of resources..

 

[Whitewing]

I can't explain today's price of a barrel of oil. But I do suspect that more folks are beginning to examine the reserves numbers reported by most OPEC countries and have noticed that most have not changed for a decade or more.

As an investor that would make me feel a bit uneasy and suspicious of what those reserves really might be.

As a realist, I'd probably believe someone was blowing blue smoke up my ass.

 

[hypocritexposer]

Who's ignoring recent discoveries? I'm saying those discoveries are not enough to provide the juice that the economies of the US, China, India, Japan and countless other industrialized countries will need once daily world oil production numbers begin an irreversible decline.

Pick ANY US oil field you wish Steve and every single one of them has a life span. Production starts slowly, climbs rapidly, peaks, and then declines rapidly.

Again, a field, a state, a country, the world. There is no difference. Production starts slowly, climbs rapidly, peaks, and then begins its decline.

Accept this truth and you'll begin to see things more clearly.

My rose colored glasses might have lost their color back in 2008. Some of the past discussions on peak oil are pretty interesting.

I think most of us confuse profits in oil vs. profits on gas. I realize they are connected, but not exactly the same.

Companies such as Exxon buy a majority of their oil (@ world price), to refine into gas/diesel etc.

Supply of oil may have reached peak, or close to it, so it is demand that is raising price. I think we as North Americans have got to realize that we are now competing with developing nations(china) for oil.

As for ANWAR, estimates I have seen of quantities, would provide about a year's worth. But they won't know what's there for sure, until they start drilling. Better get at it right away, I think it would take quite a few years until it was having any effect on prices of gas.

OPEC is forecasting prices of $200/barrel by 2010 (?),

http://ranchers.net/forum/viewtopic.php?p=278620&highlight=peak+oil#278620

 

[Steve]

even taking you argument we have at least fifty years to try to reach peak coal production. and another fifty to find an alternative..

and that is using your curve.. and only one part of any sound energy policy..

 

[Whitewing]

Well, despite Steve's assurances that $200 oil is nowhere in sight, one minor skirmish in one certain part of the world and we could be there tomorrow morning.

$10/gallon gasoline. Someone here going to try to convince me that the US economy just keeps rolling along at that level?

 

[Whitewing]

Coal's a wonderful alternative to gasoline, that's for sure. And who needs W. Virginia and half of Tenneessee anyway?

Please try to stay focused. This discussion is about CHEAP OIL.

 

[Steve]

South Africa has a way to make oil from coal
Thursday, August 17, 2006
By Patrick Barta, The Wall Street Journal

SECUNDA, South Africa -- Every day, conveyor belts haul about 120,000 metric tons of coal into an industrial complex here two hours east of Johannesburg.

The facility -- resembling a nuclear power plant, with concrete silos looming over nearby potato farms -- superheats the coal to more than 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit. It adds steam and oxygen, cranks up the pressure, and pushes the coal through a series of chemical reactions.

Then it spits out something extraordinary: 160,000 barrels of oil a day.

For decades, scientists have known how to convert coal into a liquid that can be refined into gasoline or diesel fuel. But everyone thought the process was too expensive to be practical.

The lone exception was South Africa, a one-time pariah state that had huge reserves of coal and, thanks to anti-apartheid sanctions, limited access to foreign oil. Sasol Ltd., a partly state-owned company, built several coal-to-liquids plants, including the ones at Secunda, and became the world's leading purveyor of coal-to-liquids technology.

Now, oil prices are above $70 a barrel, and Sasol has emerged as the key player at the center of the world's latest alternative-energy boom.

China is building a coal-to-oil plant costing several billion dollars in Inner Mongolia and may add as many as 27 facilities -- including some with Sasol's help -- over the next several years, according to a recent tally by Credit Suisse

Read more: http://old.post-gazette.com/pg/06229/714268-28.stm#ixzz1pMQ3O2Yr

 

[hypocritexposer]

Well, despite Steve's assurances that $200 oil is nowhere in sight, one minor skirmish in one certain part of the world and we could be there tomorrow morning.

$10/gallon gasoline. Someone here going to try to convince me that the US economy just keeps rolling along at that level?

We've got a couple of companies in Calgary that could build the US a few rigs. :lol:


but I think there was a clause in the stimulus package about buying foreign steel.

 

[Steve]

Well, despite Steve's assurances that $200 oil is nowhere in sight, one minor skirmish in one certain part of the world and we could be there tomorrow morning.

$10/gallon gasoline. Someone here going to try to convince me that the US economy just keeps rolling along at that level?

and the skirmish has nothing to do with whether we have abundant resources..

 

[Whitewing]

South Africa has a way to make oil from coal
Thursday, August 17, 2006
By Patrick Barta, The Wall Street Journal

SECUNDA, South Africa -- Every day, conveyor belts haul about 120,000 metric tons of coal into an industrial complex here two hours east of Johannesburg.

The facility -- resembling a nuclear power plant, with concrete silos looming over nearby potato farms -- superheats the coal to more than 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit. It adds steam and oxygen, cranks up the pressure, and pushes the coal through a series of chemical reactions.

Then it spits out something extraordinary: 160,000 barrels of oil a day.

For decades, scientists have known how to convert coal into a liquid that can be refined into gasoline or diesel fuel. But everyone thought the process was too expensive to be practical.

The lone exception was South Africa, a one-time pariah state that had huge reserves of coal and, thanks to anti-apartheid sanctions, limited access to foreign oil. Sasol Ltd., a partly state-owned company, built several coal-to-liquids plants, including the ones at Secunda, and became the world's leading purveyor of coal-to-liquids technology.

Now, oil prices are above $70 a barrel, and Sasol has emerged as the key player at the center of the world's latest alternative-energy boom.

China is building a coal-to-oil plant costing several billion dollars in Inner Mongolia and may add as many as 27 facilities -- including some with Sasol's help -- over the next several years, according to a recent tally by Credit Suisse

Read more: http://old.post-gazette.com/pg/06229/714268-28.stm#ixzz1pMQ3O2Yr

I wonder how they superheat that coal to 2000 degrees? Anyone ask? Oh, and anyone have several billion dollars lying around? I'd like to build one of those.

Now, wrap your mind around the concept of bringing these things on line while your country's economy is going to hell in a hand basket because its been choked off by high gasoline prices. CHEAP OIL......remember those words.

 

[Steve]

Bacteria Turn Coal and Oil Into Renewable Energy

Something amazing is happening in the Wilcox formation, a coal-bearing stretch of bedrock beneath central Louisiana. Bacteria that naturally feast on carbon dioxide (CO2) and coal in the presence of water are working overtime, producing natural gas (CH4; methane) as a byproduct.

Why is this so special? The CO2 isn't naturally occurring. In the 1980's an oil company working in the area injected it into a deep underground well in an effort to push out more petroleum. The well was later abandoned. But since then microbes have been busy taking our waste CO2, some hydrogen atoms out of the coal beds, and a few other nutrients and turning the lot into a fuel we can burn for energy.

It raises an exciting possibility -- instead of destructively mining coal, burning it, and emitting CO2 as a greenhouse gas, what if we left it in the ground and seeded it with bacteria and CO2? Could we turn the planet's vast coal reserves into a form of renewable energy?

the team's results show what no one in the scientific community has before -- that microbes may convert CO2 to natural gas on fast enough timescales to be a useful source of energy for modern society.

"It's a hot area of research," Warwick said. "It's a lot easier to dig coal up and burn it right now, but we need to start asking,

this is an old article... so I can imagine some progress has been made..

abundant coal.. gasified in-ground and burned in cars... oh how easily the world turns if you just think,..

 

[Steve]

South Africa has a way to make oil from coal
Thursday, August 17, 2006
By Patrick Barta, The Wall Street Journal

SECUNDA, South Africa -- Every day, conveyor belts haul about 120,000 metric tons of coal into an industrial complex here two hours east of Johannesburg.

The facility -- resembling a nuclear power plant, with concrete silos looming over nearby potato farms -- superheats the coal to more than 2,000 degrees Fahrenheit. It adds steam and oxygen, cranks up the pressure, and pushes the coal through a series of chemical reactions.

Then it spits out something extraordinary: 160,000 barrels of oil a day.

For decades, scientists have known how to convert coal into a liquid that can be refined into gasoline or diesel fuel. But everyone thought the process was too expensive to be practical.

The lone exception was South Africa, a one-time pariah state that had huge reserves of coal and, thanks to anti-apartheid sanctions, limited access to foreign oil. Sasol Ltd., a partly state-owned company, built several coal-to-liquids plants, including the ones at Secunda, and became the world's leading purveyor of coal-to-liquids technology.

Now, oil prices are above $70 a barrel, and Sasol has emerged as the key player at the center of the world's latest alternative-energy boom.

China is building a coal-to-oil plant costing several billion dollars in Inner Mongolia and may add as many as 27 facilities -- including some with Sasol's help -- over the next several years, according to a recent tally by Credit Suisse

Read more: http://old.post-gazette.com/pg/06229/714268-28.stm#ixzz1pMQ3O2Yr

I wonder how they superheat that coal to 2000 degrees? Anyone ask? Oh, and anyone have several billion dollars lying around? I'd like to build one of those.

Now, wrap your mind around the concept of bringing these things on line while your country's economy is going to hell in a hand basket because its been choked off by high gasoline prices. CHEAP OIL......remember those words.

maybe they burn coal to heat it up like in the old steam trains?