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New Ice Age?

Cal

Well-known member
Earth on the Brink of an Ice Age

11.01.2009 Source: Pravda.Ru URL: http://english.pravda.ru/science/earth/106922-earth_ice_age-0

The earth is now on the brink of entering another Ice Age, according to a large and compelling body of evidence from within the field of climate science. Many sources of data which provide our knowledge base of long-term climate change indicate that the warm, twelve thousand year-long Holocene period will rather soon be coming to an end, and then the earth will return to Ice Age conditions for the next 100,000 years.

Ice cores, ocean sediment cores, the geologic record, and studies of ancient plant and animal populations all demonstrate a regular cyclic pattern of Ice Age glacial maximums which each last about 100,000 years, separated by intervening warm interglacials, each lasting about 12,000 years.

Most of the long-term climate data collected from various sources also shows a strong correlation with the three astronomical cycles which are together known as the Milankovich cycles. The three Milankovich cycles include the tilt of the earth, which varies over a 41,000 year period; the shape of the earth’s orbit, which changes over a period of 100,000 years; and the Precession of the Equinoxes, also known as the earth’s ‘wobble’, which gradually rotates the direction of the earth’s axis over a period of 26,000 years. According to the Milankovich theory of Ice Age causation, these three astronomical cycles, each of which effects the amount of solar radiation which reaches the earth, act together to produce the cycle of cold Ice Age maximums and warm interglacials.
Elements of the astronomical theory of Ice Age causation were first presented by the French mathematician Joseph Adhemar in 1842, it was developed further by the English prodigy Joseph Croll in 1875, and the theory was established in its present form by the Serbian mathematician Milutin Milankovich in the 1920s and 30s. In 1976 the prestigious journal “Science” published a landmark paper by John Imbrie, James Hays, and Nicholas Shackleton entitled “Variations in the Earth's orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages,” which described the correlation which the trio of scientist/authors had found between the climate data obtained from ocean sediment cores and the patterns of the astronomical Milankovich cycles. Since the late 1970s, the Milankovich theory has remained the predominant theory to account for Ice Age causation among climate scientists, and hence the Milankovich theory is always described in textbooks of climatology and in encyclopaedia articles about the Ice Ages.

In their 1976 paper Imbrie, Hays, and Shackleton wrote that their own climate forecasts, which were based on sea-sediment cores and the Milankovich cycles, "… must be qualified in two ways. First, they apply only to the natural component of future climatic trends - and not to anthropogenic effects such as those due to the burning of fossil fuels. Second, they describe only the long-term trends, because they are linked to orbital variations with periods of 20,000 years and longer. Climatic oscillations at higher frequencies are not predicted... the results indicate that the long-term trend over the next 20,000 years is towards extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation and cooler climate."

During the 1970s the famous American astronomer Carl Sagan and other scientists began promoting the theory that ‘greenhouse gasses’ such as carbon dioxide, or CO2, produced by human industries could lead to catastrophic global warming. Since the 1970s the theory of ‘anthropogenic global warming’ (AGW) has gradually become accepted as fact by most of the academic establishment, and their acceptance of AGW has inspired a global movement to encourage governments to make pivotal changes to prevent the worsening of AGW.

The central piece of evidence that is cited in support of the AGW theory is the famous ‘hockey stick’ graph which was presented by Al Gore in his 2006 film “An Inconvenient Truth.” The ‘hockey stick’ graph shows an acute upward spike in global temperatures which began during the 1970s and continued through the winter of 2006/07. However, this warming trend was interrupted when the winter of 2007/8 delivered the deepest snow cover to the Northern Hemisphere since 1966 and the coldest temperatures since 2001. It now appears that the current Northern Hemisphere winter of 2008/09 will probably equal or surpass the winter of 2007/08 for both snow depth and cold temperatures.

The main flaw in the AGW theory is that its proponents focus on evidence from only the past one thousand years at most, while ignoring the evidence from the past million years -- evidence which is essential for a true understanding of climatology. The data from paleoclimatology provides us with an alternative and more credible explanation for the recent global temperature spike, based on the natural cycle of Ice Age maximums and interglacials.

In 1999 the British journal “Nature” published the results of data derived from glacial ice cores collected at the Russia ’s Vostok station in Antarctica during the 1990s. The Vostok ice core data includes a record of global atmospheric temperatures, atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases, and airborne particulates starting from 420,000 years ago and continuing through history up to our present time.

The graph of the Vostok ice core data shows that the Ice Age maximums and the warm interglacials occur within a regular cyclic pattern, the graph-line of which is similar to the rhythm of a heartbeat on an electrocardiogram tracing. The Vostok data graph also shows that changes in global CO2 levels lag behind global temperature changes by about eight hundred years. What that indicates is that global temperatures precede or cause global CO2 changes, and not the reverse. In other words, increasing atmospheric CO2 is not causing global temperature to rise; instead the natural cyclic increase in global temperature is causing global CO2 to rise.

The reason that global CO2 levels rise and fall in response to the global temperature is because cold water is capable of retaining more CO2 than warm water. That is why carbonated beverages loose their carbonation, or CO2, when stored in a warm environment. We store our carbonated soft drinks, wine, and beer in a cool place to prevent them from loosing their ‘fizz’, which is a feature of their carbonation, or CO2 content. The earth is currently warming as a result of the natural Ice Age cycle, and as the oceans get warmer, they release increasing amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.
Because the release of CO2 by the warming oceans lags behind the changes in the earth’s temperature, we should expect to see global CO2 levels continue to rise for another eight hundred years after the end of the earth’s current Interglacial warm period. We should already be eight hundred years into the coming Ice Age before global CO2 levels begin to drop in response to the increased chilling of the world’s oceans.

The Vostok ice core data graph reveals that global CO2 levels regularly rose and fell in a direct response to the natural cycle of Ice Age minimums and maximums during the past four hundred and twenty thousand years. Within that natural cycle, about every 110,000 years global temperatures, followed by global CO2 levels, have peaked at approximately the same levels which they are at today.

About 325,000 years ago, at the peak of a warm interglacial, global temperature and CO2 levels were higher than they are today. Today we are again at the peak, and near to the end, of a warm interglacial, and the earth is now due to enter the next Ice Age. If we are lucky, we may have a few years to prepare for it. The Ice Age will return, as it always has, in its regular and natural cycle, with or without any influence from the effects of AGW.

The AGW theory is based on data that is drawn from a ridiculously narrow span of time and it demonstrates a wanton disregard for the ‘big picture’ of long-term climate change. The data from paleoclimatology, including ice cores, sea sediments, geology, paleobotany and zoology, indicate that we are on the verge of entering another Ice Age, and the data also shows that severe and lasting climate change can occur within only a few years. While concern over the dubious threat of Anthropogenic Global Warming continues to distract the attention of people throughout the world, the very real threat of the approaching and inevitable Ice Age, which will render large parts of the Northern Hemisphere uninhabitable, is being foolishly ignored.

Gregory F. Fegel


© 1999-2006. «PRAVDA.Ru». When reproducing our materials in whole or in part, hyperlink to PRAVDA.Ru should be made. The opinions and views of the authors do not always coincide with the point of view of PRAVDA.Ru's editors.
 
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Anonymous

Guest
Global warming is quite debatable- but I think almost all scientists agree there has been historically and is ongoing climate change- altho to how much man plays a role is also debatable....
 

Big Muddy rancher

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
Global warming is quite debatable- but I think almost all scientists agree there has been historically and is ongoing climate change- altho to how much man plays a role is also debatable....


Whoa OT did you burn up a few brain cells thinking up that answer? :roll:
 

hopalong

Well-known member
Big Muddy rancher said:
Oldtimer said:
Global warming is quite debatable- but I think almost all scientists agree there has been historically and is ongoing climate change- altho to how much man plays a role is also debatable....


Whoa OT did you burn up a few brain cells thinking up that answer? :roll:

Couldn't burn up too many he does not have that many left
Uses too many trying to prove he is really something worth anything :D :D
 
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Anonymous

Guest
Big Muddy rancher said:
Oldtimer said:
Global warming is quite debatable- but I think almost all scientists agree there has been historically and is ongoing climate change- altho to how much man plays a role is also debatable....


Whoa OT did you burn up a few brain cells thinking up that answer? :roll:

Probably didn't word that right-- meant ongoing LONGTERM climate change... I think they claim the last mini ice age was about back during the time of the Pilgrims-- and that not only hot and cold spells go in cycles but also droughts and storm periods....
Lot of work been done on that in the US by researching tree rings....
 

Tam

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
Big Muddy rancher said:
Oldtimer said:
Global warming is quite debatable- but I think almost all scientists agree there has been historically and is ongoing climate change- altho to how much man plays a role is also debatable....


Whoa OT did you burn up a few brain cells thinking up that answer? :roll:

Probably didn't word that right-- meant ongoing LONGTERM climate change... I think they claim the last mini ice age was about back during the time of the Pilgrims-- and that not only hot and cold spells go in cycles but also droughts and storm periods....
Lot of work been done on that in the US by researching tree rings....

Oldtimer I don't think you have to look at tree rings to know hot and cold spells go in cycles as do drought and storm periods. :lol: :lol: sorry :lol: :lol: just can help but wonder how many tax dollars have been spent on this earth shaking research the US is doing. :lol:
 

burnt

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
Big Muddy rancher said:
Oldtimer said:
Global warming is quite debatable- but I think almost all scientists agree there has been historically and is ongoing climate change- altho to how much man plays a role is also debatable....


Whoa OT did you burn up a few brain cells thinking up that answer? :roll:

Probably didn't word that right-- meant ongoing LONGTERM climate change... I think they claim the last mini ice age was about back during the time of the Pilgrims-- and that not only hot and cold spells go in cycles but also droughts and storm periods....
Lot of work been done on that in the US by researching tree rings....

Any more definitions or conditions you would like to add to help your statement develop a bit of credibility? Or maybe the profundity of it made it go right over my head? Yeah, that's prolly what it is . . . .

Oh, I see - LONGTERM! Those darned Indians, pardon me, aboriginals, prolly gave off too much methane swinging those tomahawks . . . major CO2 contributors! :lol: :lol: :lol: Literally, man made . . . :lol: :lol: :lol:
 
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Anonymous

Guest
burnt said:
Oldtimer said:
Big Muddy rancher said:
Whoa OT did you burn up a few brain cells thinking up that answer? :roll:

Probably didn't word that right-- meant ongoing LONGTERM climate change... I think they claim the last mini ice age was about back during the time of the Pilgrims-- and that not only hot and cold spells go in cycles but also droughts and storm periods....
Lot of work been done on that in the US by researching tree rings....

Any more definitions or conditions you would like to add to help your statement develop a bit of credibility? Or maybe the profundity of it made it go right over my head? Yeah, that's prolly what it is . . . .

Oh, I see - LONGTERM! Those darned Indians, pardon me, aboriginals, prolly gave off too much methane swinging those tomahawks . . . major CO2 contributors! :lol: :lol: :lol: Literally, man made . . . :lol: :lol: :lol:

I don't buy into the global warming theory-or that its caused entirely by methane or CO2-but like I said- I do believe in long term changes and cycles in climate that scientist have proven have been going on since the world started...
One of the articles I read the other day say the major climate periods go in 10,000 year cycles--with mini cycles in that time occuring in cycles of 20- 500 years......

As far as how much input man has into it- is questionable -still unproven...
 

per

Well-known member
Dang, I was good with a bit of a warm up. The focus of all these so called scientists should be good environmental stewardship. No more no less. If we all did that (I assume most here do) climate change would be just what it has been over the millenia, Climate Change.
 
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Anonymous

Guest
The Lou Dobbs show had a discussion on this with 3 experts commenting...A lot of it goes with the position of the sun in the long term spin of the galaxy-- and they said we are looking at a period of 2-3 decades of colder temperatures :( - and differing weather patterns caused by this....

While they all agreed we should work on long term goals for alternative fuels, and preserving the earth as pristine as possible-- they hoped the evidence they are coming up with should slow down some of the carbon issues so we can keep using fossil fuels now available to help us work thru the economy issue.....
 

Cal

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
The Lou Dobbs show had a discussion on this with 3 experts commenting...A lot of it goes with the position of the sun in the long term spin of the galaxy-- and they said we are looking at a period of 2-3 decades of colder temperatures :( - and differing weather patterns caused by this....

While they all agreed we should work on long term goals for alternative fuels, and preserving the earth as pristine as possible-- they hoped the evidence they are coming up with should slow down some of the carbon issues so we can keep using fossil fuels now available to help us work thru the economy issue.....
algore must be devastated.
 
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