• If you are having problems logging in please use the Contact Us in the lower right hand corner of the forum page for assistance.

Noon Market report

Help Support Ranchers.net:

Big Muddy rancher

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 10, 2005
Messages
22,070
Reaction score
291
Location
Big Muddy valley
They were saying that packers were closing some plants in a effort to increase margins. Should ranchers decrease supplys to increase margins?
 

Econ101

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 26, 2005
Messages
7,060
Reaction score
0
Location
TX
Big Muddy rancher said:
They were saying that packers were closing some plants in a effort to increase margins. Should ranchers decrease supplys to increase margins?

That is how free markets work, BMR. That is what lead to the recent run up in beef prices.
 

Jason

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 10, 2005
Messages
1,994
Reaction score
0
Location
Alberta Canada
Explain how prices in the US climbed even after the border with Canada was opened then?

Supplies climbed and so did the price.
 

Econ101

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 26, 2005
Messages
7,060
Reaction score
0
Location
TX
Jason said:
Explain how prices in the US climbed even after the border with Canada was opened then?

Supplies climbed and so did the price.

Jason, you need to do a little more studying before I waste my time on you and your questions.

I am sorry that frustrates you.

Why don't you pm circus chicken and figure it out?
 

Sandhusker

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 10, 2005
Messages
18,486
Reaction score
0
Location
Nebraska
Jason said:
Explain how prices in the US climbed even after the border with Canada was opened then?

Supplies climbed and so did the price.

Maybe there's more than one factor that effects prices?
 

Econ101

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 26, 2005
Messages
7,060
Reaction score
0
Location
TX
Sandhusker said:
Jason said:
Explain how prices in the US climbed even after the border with Canada was opened then?

Supplies climbed and so did the price.

Maybe there's more than one factor that effects prices?

Always. That was in the guts of some of the arguments I had with Agman. Different time periods have different factors and they have to be looked at with that in mind. Some factors overide other factors even though both may be at play and both may be important. This discussion is not one I want to get into with Jason because he just doesn't have the aptitude or willingness and it would be a waste of time.

Sometimes you have to realize you can't teach a dog to read (especially when they want to go around playing and biting) so it is just not worth your time to try.

Dancing with a circus chicken is a lot more fun.
 

Jason

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 10, 2005
Messages
1,994
Reaction score
0
Location
Alberta Canada
Conman says a reduced supply of cattle led to the recent run up of prices.

conman said:
That is how free markets work, BMR. That is what lead to the recent run up in beef prices.

That's when I called him on HIS one factor cause and effect.

Jason said:
Explain how prices in the US climbed even after the border with Canada was opened then?

Supplies climbed and so did the price.

3 and 4 posts later, conman and sandbagger can't recall what was posted by conman.

Talk about reading comprehension.

Conman types it and can't even understand it.
 

Econ101

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 26, 2005
Messages
7,060
Reaction score
0
Location
TX
Jason said:
Conman says a reduced supply of cattle led to the recent run up of prices.

conman said:
That is how free markets work, BMR. That is what lead to the recent run up in beef prices.

That's when I called him on HIS one factor cause and effect.

Jason said:
Explain how prices in the US climbed even after the border with Canada was opened then?

Supplies climbed and so did the price.

3 and 4 posts later, conman and sandbagger can't recall what was posted by conman.

Talk about reading comprehension.

Conman types it and can't even understand it.

Hey little boy. It is frustrating isn't it?

Jason, if you want to argue with Agman on the figures he posted on the board that support my position, then go argue with him. I choose to not argue with you on some things, not because your are right, but because you are just an idiot.

Like I said before, I would rather dance with a circus chicken. I find them much smarter than you.
 

Jason

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 10, 2005
Messages
1,994
Reaction score
0
Location
Alberta Canada
Your the one that proves what an idiot you are every time you twist and say you didn't say something you typed just a post or two before.

You have no credibility except with those that can look at facts and say they aren't there.

I just like to point out your lunacy.
 

Big Muddy rancher

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 10, 2005
Messages
22,070
Reaction score
291
Location
Big Muddy valley
This thread didn't really go the direction I had figured it would. I just posted it because I had heard of what the packers were doing to ensure their survival. But as ranchers when prices are high we retain Hfrs. at a high cost to produce more animals so that the cost will be forced down. Then we complain about it.
 

Mike

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 10, 2005
Messages
28,480
Reaction score
0
Location
Montgomery, Al
Big Muddy rancher said:
This thread didn't really go the direction I had figured it would. I just posted it because I had heard of what the packers were doing to ensure their survival. But as ranchers when prices are high we retain Hfrs. at a high cost to produce more animals so that the cost will be forced down. Then we complain about it.

We will never get all (or most) of the producers to stick together and hold or sell cattle to influence prices one way or the other. There are simply too many with debts to pay and living expenses that have to be paid when due.

But take the 4-5 big players on the next level who are gambling with stockholders money would have more of a chance.

I agree with you though, cycles are usually caused on the producer end. The result of an unorganized market. If we were to plan against it I would expect the term "Collusion" to be thrown out there too.
 

Soapweed

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 11, 2005
Messages
16,260
Reaction score
47
Location
northern Nebraska Sandhills
Mike said:
Big Muddy rancher said:
This thread didn't really go the direction I had figured it would. I just posted it because I had heard of what the packers were doing to ensure their survival. But as ranchers when prices are high we retain Hfrs. at a high cost to produce more animals so that the cost will be forced down. Then we complain about it.

We will never get all (or most) of the producers to stick together and hold or sell cattle to influence prices one way or the other. There are simply too many with debts to pay and living expenses that have to be paid when due.

But take the 4-5 big players on the next level who are gambling with stockholders money would have more of a chance.

I agree with you though, cycles are usually caused on the producer end. The result of an unorganized market. If we were to plan against it I would expect the term "Collusion" to be thrown out there too.

Weather is another big factor in the whole process. Drought causes massive herd liquidations, and a little timely rain causes excessive optimism. Ranching morale ebbs and flows like the tides, but it is more unpredictable. Those in the cattle business are independent as hogs on ice, and will never see eye-to-eye enough to unite on much of anything. Thus, cattle cycles will always be. :? :???:
 

Jason

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 10, 2005
Messages
1,994
Reaction score
0
Location
Alberta Canada
Soap, I think you really hit the nail on the head.

I am amazed at how stubborn most rancher types are. They can look at business models and dismiss them before even understanding them.

How many really even know their costs involved in their operations?

Especially among purebred breeders, and yes I am a purebred breeder, how many can even tell you what fat prices are doing (in general), what inventory levels are, or even what the cost of gain is on their bulls?

I have had the opportunity to start several new herds for business people with little or no cattle background. They are a refreshing change in that they have no preconceived ideas about the industry. They analyse things from a business perspective. If something is done they like to know why.
 

cowzilla

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 27, 2005
Messages
363
Reaction score
0
Location
east of kato
Big Muddy rancher said:
This thread didn't really go the direction I had figured it would. I just posted it because I had heard of what the packers were doing to ensure their survival. But as ranchers when prices are high we retain Hfrs. at a high cost to produce more animals so that the cost will be forced down. Then we complain about it.
Do you think a gutsy farm manager ( or smart business manager) would be selling all his bred cows and heifers at these high prices? When is the bubble going to burst and how do you prepare for it :???:
 

Soapweed

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 11, 2005
Messages
16,260
Reaction score
47
Location
northern Nebraska Sandhills
cowzilla said:
Big Muddy rancher said:
This thread didn't really go the direction I had figured it would. I just posted it because I had heard of what the packers were doing to ensure their survival. But as ranchers when prices are high we retain Hfrs. at a high cost to produce more animals so that the cost will be forced down. Then we complain about it.
Do you think a gutsy farm manager ( or smart business manager) would be selling all his bred cows and heifers at these high prices? When is the bubble going to burst and how do you prepare for it :???:

The cattle business is just as hard to get out of, as it is to get into. Sure, it is tempting to cash in on today's high bred cow prices, but then taxes take away a large percent of the proceeds. If a person is in the business for the long haul, it is probably not good business to sell "the geese that lay the golden eggs." :? :???: :wink: At least, this is my excuse and my story, and I'm sticking to it. :)
 

Jason

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 10, 2005
Messages
1,994
Reaction score
0
Location
Alberta Canada
Gosh dang it Soap, your bang on again :wink:

The tax issue is the major reason for not selling cowherds off at the prices US producers are seeing.

If a person had the tax ability to sell off and buy back cows in maybe 2-3 years, it could be a great business decision. Could be because, what if cows don't drop that far? What will you do for the 2-3 years for income? Will the cows you buy back be good enough to start up at full speed again?

The slightly easier but equally as "gutsy" move would be to sell off heifers while others are buying or holding them back. Then holding heifers while others are selling them at lower prices.

Things like drought and old cows kinda mess with making the best business decisions.
 

agman

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 10, 2005
Messages
1,664
Reaction score
0
Location
Denver, CO
Econ101 said:
Sandhusker said:
Jason said:
Explain how prices in the US climbed even after the border with Canada was opened then?

Supplies climbed and so did the price.

Maybe there's more than one factor that effects prices?

Always. That was in the guts of some of the arguments I had with Agman. Different time periods have different factors and they have to be looked at with that in mind. Some factors overide other factors even though both may be at play and both may be important. This discussion is not one I want to get into with Jason because he just doesn't have the aptitude or willingness and it would be a waste of time.

Sometimes you have to realize you can't teach a dog to read (especially when they want to go around playing and biting) so it is just not worth your time to try.

Dancing with a circus chicken is a lot more fun.

As if you know what all those factors are!!! Who are you kidding? You had to be told what per capita supplies of beef were doing Conman. Have you forgotten that important revelation about your limited knowledge? Do you still believe prices only go up when supplies go down?!!!!
 

cowzilla

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 27, 2005
Messages
363
Reaction score
0
Location
east of kato
Jason said:
Gosh dang it Soap, your bang on again :wink:

The tax issue is the major reason for not selling cowherds off at the prices US producers are seeing.

If a person had the tax ability to sell off and buy back cows in maybe 2-3 years, it could be a great business decision. Could be because, what if cows don't drop that far? What will you do for the 2-3 years for income? Will the cows you buy back be good enough to start up at full speed again?

The slightly easier but equally as "gutsy" move would be to sell off heifers while others are buying or holding them back. Then holding heifers while others are selling them at lower prices.

Things like drought and old cows kinda mess with making the best business decisions.
What if you sell all the cows and keep your best heifers and buy a few. Go COLD TURKEY no calfing for 1 maybe 2 years just background . You avoided the taxman but still have inventory to get back in . I read a story written by Allan Nation in The Stockman Grassfarmer and he said to survive a sliding market you have to have the LIGHTEST animal so that you lose the least :!: just wondering what you guys think about this.A guy might have to rollover (background) 2 or 3 times?
 

agman

Well-known member
Joined
Feb 10, 2005
Messages
1,664
Reaction score
0
Location
Denver, CO
cowzilla said:
Jason said:
Gosh dang it Soap, your bang on again :wink:

The tax issue is the major reason for not selling cowherds off at the prices US producers are seeing.

If a person had the tax ability to sell off and buy back cows in maybe 2-3 years, it could be a great business decision. Could be because, what if cows don't drop that far? What will you do for the 2-3 years for income? Will the cows you buy back be good enough to start up at full speed again?

The slightly easier but equally as "gutsy" move would be to sell off heifers while others are buying or holding them back. Then holding heifers while others are selling them at lower prices.

Things like drought and old cows kinda mess with making the best business decisions.
What if you sell all the cows and keep your best heifers and buy a few. Go COLD TURKEY no calfing for 1 maybe 2 years just background . You avoided the taxman but still have inventory to get back in . I read a story written by Allan Nation in The Stockman Grassfarmer and he said to survive a sliding market you have to have the LIGHTEST animal so that you lose the least :!: just wondering what you guys think about this.A guy might have to rollover (background) 2 or 3 times?

Generally, there is alot of truth to his statement. The other advantage is that the lighter cattle give you more time. I learned the only time you lose money on cattle is if you have to sell. Light cattle buy you time that heavy cattle do not. Time can be your enemy or your friend. Make 'time" your friend.
 

Econ101

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 26, 2005
Messages
7,060
Reaction score
0
Location
TX
agman said:
Econ101 said:
Sandhusker said:
Maybe there's more than one factor that effects prices?

Always. That was in the guts of some of the arguments I had with Agman. Different time periods have different factors and they have to be looked at with that in mind. Some factors overide other factors even though both may be at play and both may be important. This discussion is not one I want to get into with Jason because he just doesn't have the aptitude or willingness and it would be a waste of time.

Sometimes you have to realize you can't teach a dog to read (especially when they want to go around playing and biting) so it is just not worth your time to try.

Dancing with a circus chicken is a lot more fun.

As if you know what all those factors are!!! Who are you kidding? You had to be told what per capita supplies of beef were doing Conman. Have you forgotten that important revelation about your limited knowledge? Do you still believe prices only go up when supplies go down?!!!!

I didn't have to be told anything, Agman. You just offered that information on your own. Its relevance to the discussion we were having at the time was of little value to the points you were either making or arguing against. You and SH think that saying something irrelevant somehow brings credence to your point, I do not.

I see you have been taking lessons from the circus chicken. Can't you get your own act?
 

Latest posts

Top