Obama Cannot Win In 2012

[Mike]

Pollsters: Modern History Shows Obama Can't Win in 2012
Sunday, 28 Aug 2011 05:51 PM

By David A. Patten

The economy is so dismal that President Barack Obama will have to re-write the political history books if he hopes to win re-election, political strategists say.

The latest bad news for Team Obama: Economic growth for the second quarter was revised downward from 1.3 to a mere 1 percent on Friday -- far below the level of activity required to put a dent in the nation's chronic, high joblessness.

Those slumping GDP numbers followed an economic-outlook report by the Congressional Budget Office that likely touched off alarm bells in Obama's campaign. Despite optimistic assumptions about GDP growth, inflation, and deficit-spending, the CBO projected U.S. unemployment to be at or above 8.5 percent through the fourth quarter of 2012.

That means President Obama will have to earn a return engagement to the White House under virtually unprecedented circumstances. And he'll likely have to alter his campaign strategy to do it.

"It becomes a game changer," says Matt Towery, CEO of the nonpartisan InsiderAdvantage polling company, "in the sense that he and the White House had every expectation two and a half years ago that unemployment would be well under 8 percent, that the stimulus package would work, and that [high unemployment] would not be an issue for him."

The latest indication Obama will have to jettison the post-partisan, hope-and-change mantra that propelled him to the White House in 2008: A Pew Research Center poll showing only 49 percent of U.S. voters now consider him to be a strong leader. That's down sharply from 58 percent in May. Also, Pew reports only 44 percent describe him as a person who can get things done, down from 55 percent.

"I think Barack Obama is in deep trouble," Democratic pollster and Fox News contributor Doug Schoen told Newsmax.TV in an exclusive interview.

To win re-election, Obama will have to win re-election under those circumstances, he will have to re-write the political history books.

Much has been made of the fact that Ronald Reagan won re-election in 1984 with an unemployment rate of 7.2 percent. But that precedent now offers little encouragement for Obama, for two reasons. The obvious consideration is that the economy is expected to be in significantly worse shape in November 2012 than when Reagan won re-election. But equally significant is that unemployment dropped while Reagan was in office and was heading down on Election Day.

When Obama took office, unemployment was 7.8 percent. The CBO report predicts it will still be well above that level when voters pass judgment on Obama.

To better understand why the CBO projections are a game-changer, consider this: The last time voters sent a president back to the White House when unemployment was north of 8 percent was 1940.

That year, Franklin Delano Roosevelt was re-elected despite a Depression-era unemployment rate of 14.6 percent. But that example doesn't provide much succor to Democrats either. After all FDR, like Reagan, earned the voters' patience by substantially lowering the unemployment rate from what it was when he took office.

So is Obama toast before his campaign even begins? Not at all.

"His campaign will have to shift the issue," Towery tells Newsmax. "They're going to have to find a way to make unemployment and the economy not the major issue. Now that's almost going to be impossible -- but it is really their only way."

Towery envisions the following options for Obama:

• Option One: Move hard to the left and really push the class-warfare issue. By talking about taxes on millionaires and corporate-jet loopholes, Obama will energize and solidify his base. But it also risks unnerving the independents that Obama desperately needs to bring back into the fold to win re-election.

• Option Two: Encourage the GOP to make an "unforced error." Towery predicts Obama will prod Republicans in the hope it leads them to make a self-inflicted wound. He says refusing to extend the payroll-tax cut in an election year is one obvious example. Too much talk of slashing Medicare and Social Security is another.

• Option Three: Rough up the GOP nominee and Republicans in Congress by painting them as extremists who would be too risky to trust with the presidency. "President Obama is weak," Schoen says, "and I think what he is counting on is that Republicans will be weaker and less well regarded than he is." Again, the risk is that smearing his GOP rival as a dangerous alternative could turn off independents.

One of these strategies -- or more likely a combination of all three -- could help Obama achieve what no politician since FDR has accomplished: Getting re-elected after unemployment goes from bad to worse.

Towery, who served as a political strategist for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich in the 1980s and 90s, expects Obama to go sharply negative in an effort to redirect attention from the moribund economy to whether the GOP alternative can be trusted.

"There's only one thing in politics you do when you're that low," he says. "You try to bloody the other guy up just as much as you can.

"I mean, it's the only answer. I don't care what anybody says: He can't put enough commercials on about how hard he works or whatever. It isn't even working in the African-American community. When Maxine Waters is out there giving you trouble, you know you've got problems."
With unemployment so high, Towery says, the bottom line for Obama and the Democrats is brutally simple: "They've got to just bloody up whoever gets the nomination, or the party as a whole," he says.

But even then, Towery says Obama may need help from Republicans in order to win re-election in 2012.

"If you ask me what the Obama administration is looking for," Towery says, "they're looking for a fumble on behalf of Republicans, a totally unforced error."

 

[backhoeboogie]

Mike,

Explain to me how someone who qualified every debate answer with, "We're looking in to it but....." and got elected in the first place. He had an out for every answer he gave. Weasel words deluxe. He may as well have said, "I don't know but here is my answer" and they voted him in.

I realize we had a choice between a liberal and a liberal, but how did he get elected?

I aint writing him off for the next one just yet. Somehow he hoodwinked America and got elected last time. It is totally unbelieveable. Hence, it could happen again.

 

[Tam]

According the Michelle Obama, Barak was the guy to re-write US history during the 2008 campaign but who knew it would be to get himself re-elected 4 years later. :?

My bet on the campaign strategy, He will be going nasty and going nasty HARD. BLOOD Will be flying and Mr. Civility will be the one turning a blind eye to it if it means he will come out on top the bloody heap.

 

[Mike]

Mike,

Explain to me how someone who qualified every debate answer with, "We're looking in to it but....." and got elected in the first place. He had an out for every answer he gave. Weasel words deluxe. He may as well have said, "I don't know but here is my answer" and they voted him in.

I realize we had a choice between a liberal and a liberal, but how did he get elected?

I aint writing him off for the next one just yet. Somehow he hoodwinked America and got elected last time. It is totally unbelieveable. Hence, it could happen again.

Two words, "Hope" & "Change". The likes of OT were mesmerized by these words.

The media had built Bush into such an ogre that anything different was what they really wanted.

I don't understand them getting duped either, but they did. :roll:

 

[backhoeboogie]

Well I don't have much hope with him behind the wheel. He is just out for a Sunday drive 24/7. It seems we are all ready to change that.

I aint a Perry fan but compared to the current idiot, Perry is a saint.

Here's hoping we get someone we can be proud to vote for. Gawd I don't want to vote Perry as the lessor of all evil liberals!

 

[backhoeboogie]

Years ago we sat down to supper at our house. The television was on. Roseann. She was teaching her kids how to lie to their teachers and school administration. I couldn't believe what I was seeing. I got the remote, change channels, and told my daughters we weren't watching that stuff in our house.

I tried to sit through Oprah once and just couldn't do it.

How do shows like that get all the following of Americans? These are the people who don't really care about the quality of their lives? These are likely the same folks who voted for Obama. Think about it. Roseann was a show on television for a decade teaching kids how to lie, cheat, and steal and people tuned in.

 

[Steve]

Years ago we sat down to supper at our house. The television was on. Roseann. She was teaching her kids how to lie to their teachers and school administration. I couldn't believe what I was seeing. I got the remote, change channels, and told my daughters we weren't watching that stuff in our house.

I tried to sit through Oprah once and just couldn't do it.

How do shows like that get all the following of Americans? These are the people who don't really care about the quality of their lives? These are likely the same folks who voted for Obama. Think about it. Roseann was a show on television for a decade teaching kids how to lie, cheat, and steal and people tuned in.

Liberals have often used TV and movies to push their agenda.. and values.

 

[Steve]

I don't want to vote Perry as the lessor of all evil liberals!

I had never noticed how the media pushes its conservative front runner until McCain became the comeback kid..

he was niether coming back nor a kid.. but the media sold the idea... until McCain was a new youthful GOP primary hopeful..


then they told the truth about McCain relentlessly in the general..

the same has been happening with Romney and Perry..

Romney was home taking a nap while his campaign surged across the screens.. one might ask how? or more importantly why?

now just in case the media is hyping Perry... cause they want Romney. could settle for Perry, but couldn't tolerate any of the rest..

(other then Huntsman who seems to be getting alot of liberal airtime now.. )

they want a potential loser.. they want a more liberal conservative..

they want to shape the race.. not report on the race.. the free press died long ago...