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Obituaries For The Republican Party

hypocritexposer

Well-known member
It's Alive!
Obituaries For The Republican Party In The Northeast Appear To Have Been Premature

Wednesday, May 6, 2009
by John Mercurio

Voters can be sneaky people. While political insiders are busy embracing a story line in Washington and packaging it as fact, folks outside the Beltway often have a way of quietly proving us wrong.

Take, for example, the Beltway proclamation that Arlen Specter's decision to switch parties is the final nail in the coffin of Republicans throughout the Northeast. Almost as quickly as that claim gathered steam, a fresh round of polls showed solid signs of life for the GOP -- in almost every Senate and gubernatorial race in that region.

Democrats in 2010 could be victims of their own success in 2008.

Let's start with the Specter race in Pennsylvania, where, we were frequently reminded last week, Democrats dramatically expanded their voter files last year. That much is true -- thanks to a contested presidential primary. But Republicans also have reason to be sanguine. A new Susquehanna Polling & Research poll shows that Republican Tom Ridge, the former governor and Homeland Security secretary under President Bush, narrowly leads Specter in a two-way race. Ridge, who's seriously eyeing the race and will announce his plans later this month, may struggle to distance himself from Bush. But Specter, who proudly displayed Bush's support in his 2004 re-election race and was a loyal foot soldier for much of Bush's agenda, may not be the most effective messenger for those attacks.

If Democrats are quietly concerned about Pennsylvania, they're openly terrified about Connecticut, where President Obama took 61 percent last fall. Perhaps no Senate Democrat is more vulnerable in 2010 than the Nutmeg State's Christopher Dodd, a 29-year incumbent who has never been re-elected with less than 59 percent. Through a series of missteps, Dodd now trails his likely GOP challenger, former Rep. Rob Simmons, by double digits, according to some recent polls. How vulnerable is Dodd? So much so that he's frequently mentioned these days in the same breath as former Sens. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., and John Sununu, R-N.H., two Northeast Republicans who were trounced in re-election bids earlier this decade.

But one of those Republicans may have reason to consider a comeback. In New Hampshire, a new Granite State Poll shows Sununu leading Rep. Paul Hodes, the likely Democratic nominee in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Judd Gregg (R). If he decided not to retire, the poll shows, Gregg could win that race in a cakewalk.

Even in Massachusetts, one of the country's most solidly blue states, Democrats are increasingly nervous about Gov. Deval Patrick (D), who recently drew a wealthy GOP challenger and has seen his approval ratings plummet since February.

Patrick's counterpart in New York, Gov. David Paterson (D), is widely dismissed these days as a dead man walking and, according to polls, would lose to either Republican eyeing the race, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani or former Rep. Rick Lazio. A survey this week showed that voters, so dissatisfied with Paterson, wish his disgraced predecessor, Eliot Spitzer, had never resigned. The silver lining for New York Democrats: Paterson will likely lose a Democratic primary to state Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, who then looks strong next fall against both Republicans. But Paterson's legacy could linger until November, when his Senate appointee, Kirsten Gillibrand (D), could face a tough race.

As Gillibrand's case illustrates, Democrats in 2010 could be victims of their own success in 2008. While Gillibrand struggles in a race that Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton likely would have won with ease, Democrats also could be fighting uphill battles to hold Senate seats vacated by Obama and Vice President Joe Biden. In Delaware, a new Susquehanna survey showed Beau Biden, the vice president's son and likely Democratic Senate nominee in 2010, trailing Rep. Mike Castle (R) -- by 21 points. Castle, a moderate, enjoys a 2-1 edge among independent voters. The fourth Senate vacancy caused by the election is in Colorado, where polls show appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) is also struggling.

We might not have to wait until 2010 to see signs of a Republican revival in the Northeast. A Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey survey released last week shows Gov. Jon Corzine (D) continues to trail his Republican challenger, former U.S. attorney Chris Christie, in an election less than six months away. Corzine's biggest problem: High unfavorable ratings, most notably among independent voters.

There is, however, another piece of conventional wisdom that does ring true: The 2010 midterms, still roughly 540 days away, will be largely determined by Obama's popularity next fall and the success or failure of his first two years in office. Polls conducted these days say little about the eventual winners of these races. But they clearly indicate one thing: Voters appear more than willing to give the GOP another chance.

And that alone should be reason for Republicans to celebrate.
 
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