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Oil Prices Tumble-Are The Speculators On Vacation?

Mike

Well-known member
AP
Oil hits 7-week low on demand worries, dollar gain
Tuesday July 29, 5:13 pm ET
By Stevenson Jacobs, AP Business Writer
Oil prices tumble to 7-week low as demand worries grow, US dollar strengthens


NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil prices tumbled more than $2 a barrel Tuesday, finishing at their lowest level in seven weeks as a stronger dollar and beliefs that record prices are eroding the world's thirst for energy sparked another dramatic sell-off.

The drop -- which surpassed $4 a barrel at one point during the day -- was a throwback to oil's nosedive over the past two weeks and outweighed supply concerns touched off by a militant attack Monday on two Nigerian crude pipelines. It was oil's seventh decline in the last 10 sessions.

Light, sweet crude for September delivery fell $2.54 to settle at $122.19 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was the lowest settlement price for a front-month contract since June 10. Earlier, prices fell to $120.42, also the lowest level since June 10. Oil has now fallen more than $25 from its trading high of $147.27, reached July 11.

More concerns that crude's run-up over the past year has pushed prices to unsustainable levels fed Tuesday's decline. The U.S. Transportation Department said Monday that U.S. drivers logged 9.6 billion fewer vehicle miles in May -- or 3.7 percent -- compared to the same period last year, the biggest drop ever for the historically busy summer driving month.

And demand for oil in the U.S. -- the world's thirstiest consumer -- continues to fall, dropping by 891,000 barrels per day in May compared the same month a year ago, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said Monday.

"We're seeing both statistical and anecdotal evidence of a very rapidly weakening demand picture," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill.

The declines accelerated after oil briefly dipped below $122, a key resistance level that triggered technical selling by computers programmed to dump oil contracts once prices fall under a certain threshold.
 

aplusmnt

Well-known member
To quote a great man :lol:

aplusmnt said:
Perceived supply and demand plays a big part in speculators game. That is why just announcements of something going to be short or long in supply will change the stock market in a mater of hours or days even though the real time affect on Supply and Demand will weeks or months down the line.

Just wait and see if Oil Price per barrel does not start dropping once production is increased if not sooner! And then gas prices will follow slowly.

OPEC is the over all puppet master of the oil and its prices and they will bring it down some to keep demand up instead of dropping as it has been.

40 days ago I started the thread about OPEC going to increase production, Kolan and others said it would not make a difference, well now 40 days later and a decrease in Demand and we finally see the prices falling.

Kind of shows you that Supply and Demand are still the most influential reasons for prices.

http://ranchers.net/forum/viewtopic.php?p=285011&highlight=opec#285011


kolanuraven said:
The increase of oil production wont' matter a diddlers damn in the price.
 

kolanuraven

Well-known member
Why are ya'll crowing and all excited that oil is STILL 2x's what it should be?


That makes no sense whatsoever!

You guys are worse than women to rave about sale when the goods were marked up 30% to start with....then take 10% off that price!!! :roll: :roll: :roll:

Keep getting and stayng all ' giddy' about it and oil will STAY at or about $4.00 per gallon.

The fall in the overall price, what little amt it may be, has not equally changed the cost of gas now has it? NO


Thump your chest all you want....but it makes no difference. You are playing right into their hands.

" Let's drop it a few dollars....let'em get all happy....then come fall we'll start easing it back up and blame wintertime problems this time"
 

Mike

Well-known member
kolanuraven said:
Why are ya'll crowing and all excited that oil is STILL 2x's what it should be?


That makes no sense whatsoever!

You guys are worse than women to rave about sale when the goods were marked up 30% to start with....then take 10% off that price!!! :roll: :roll: :roll:

Keep getting and stayng all ' giddy' about it and oil will STAY at or about $4.00 per gallon.

The fall in the overall price, what little amt it may be, has not equally changed the cost of gas now has it? NO


Thump your chest all you want....but it makes no difference. You are playing right into their hands.

" Let's drop it a few dollars....let'em get all happy....then come fall we'll start easing it back up and blame wintertime problems this time"

You have missed the entire point. :roll:

No one is satisfied with the high oil prices.

I'll give you a clue.............................

The argument is whether Speculators have driven the price to where it is, or does supply and demand dictate prices?

Speculators can't drive the price up if demand is not there. :roll:

Read the article again.........SLOWLY!!!!!!!!!!!!! :lol:
 

backhoeboogie

Well-known member
kolanuraven said:
Why are ya'll crowing and all excited that oil is STILL 2x's what it should be?

Whoa! I thought you were on board with OT's "Recession/Depression" guise. Did you jump off of that bandwagon?

Frankie and OT should be jumping all over this price decline and attributing it to Dubya and the recession they've been wanting.

You all should be starting a new poll for the umpteenth time and citing this price decline as additional evidence.

Cry "Wolf". Are you all slipping?
 

TSR

Well-known member
Mike said:
kolanuraven said:
Why are ya'll crowing and all excited that oil is STILL 2x's what it should be?


That makes no sense whatsoever!

You guys are worse than women to rave about sale when the goods were marked up 30% to start with....then take 10% off that price!!! :roll: :roll: :roll:

Keep getting and stayng all ' giddy' about it and oil will STAY at or about $4.00 per gallon.

The fall in the overall price, what little amt it may be, has not equally changed the cost of gas now has it? NO


Thump your chest all you want....but it makes no difference. You are playing right into their hands.

" Let's drop it a few dollars....let'em get all happy....then come fall we'll start easing it back up and blame wintertime problems this time"

You have missed the entire point. :roll:

No one is satisfied with the high oil prices.

I'll give you a clue.............................

The argument is whether Speculators have driven the price to where it is, or does supply and demand dictate prices?

Speculators can't drive the price up if demand is not there. :roll:

Read the article again.........SLOWLY!!!!!!!!!!!!! :lol:

Mike, are you saying Speculators still aren't speculating????? Could it be as Kola says with the recent debates in Congress where the republicans blocked a bill aimed at curbing speculation, the speculators are feeling a little "heat" and want to keep everyone happy, so they can keep their profits going, at least until the end of this administrations term.
 

RobertMac

Well-known member
TSR said:
Mike said:
kolanuraven said:
Why are ya'll crowing and all excited that oil is STILL 2x's what it should be?


That makes no sense whatsoever!

You guys are worse than women to rave about sale when the goods were marked up 30% to start with....then take 10% off that price!!! :roll: :roll: :roll:

Keep getting and stayng all ' giddy' about it and oil will STAY at or about $4.00 per gallon.

The fall in the overall price, what little amt it may be, has not equally changed the cost of gas now has it? NO


Thump your chest all you want....but it makes no difference. You are playing right into their hands.

" Let's drop it a few dollars....let'em get all happy....then come fall we'll start easing it back up and blame wintertime problems this time"

You have missed the entire point. :roll:

No one is satisfied with the high oil prices.

I'll give you a clue.............................

The argument is whether Speculators have driven the price to where it is, or does supply and demand dictate prices?

Speculators can't drive the price up if demand is not there. :roll:

Read the article again.........SLOWLY!!!!!!!!!!!!! :lol:

Mike, are you saying Speculators still aren't speculating????? Could it be as Kola says with the recent debates in Congress where the republicans blocked a bill aimed at curbing speculation, the speculators are feeling a little "heat" and want to keep everyone happy, so they can keep their profits going, at least until the end of this administrations term.
Speculators can make money whether the price goes up or down...they just have to take the right position. :eek:
 

aplusmnt

Well-known member
kolanuraven said:
Why are ya'll crowing and all excited that oil is STILL 2x's what it should be?


That makes no sense whatsoever!

You guys are worse than women to rave about sale when the goods were marked up 30% to start with....then take 10% off that price!!! :roll: :roll: :roll:

Keep getting and stayng all ' giddy' about it and oil will STAY at or about $4.00 per gallon.

The fall in the overall price, what little amt it may be, has not equally changed the cost of gas now has it? NO


Thump your chest all you want....but it makes no difference. You are playing right into their hands.

" Let's drop it a few dollars....let'em get all happy....then come fall we'll start easing it back up and blame wintertime problems this time"

No one is happy, just hoping! Hoping that America will wake up and realize that we can not allow production of oil to decrease in the United States while also watching demand increase.

Hoping that people will wake up to the serious Supply and Demand problem we have now and in the future for oil. That even if more drilling does not bring down prices, it will surely help in keeping them from rising at the rates they have over the past two Presidents.

I personally am not happy, but I do hold out hope for our Country!
 

kolanuraven

Well-known member
aplusmnt said:
kolanuraven said:
Why are ya'll crowing and all excited that oil is STILL 2x's what it should be?


That makes no sense whatsoever!

You guys are worse than women to rave about sale when the goods were marked up 30% to start with....then take 10% off that price!!! :roll: :roll: :roll:

Keep getting and stayng all ' giddy' about it and oil will STAY at or about $4.00 per gallon.

The fall in the overall price, what little amt it may be, has not equally changed the cost of gas now has it? NO


Thump your chest all you want....but it makes no difference. You are playing right into their hands.

" Let's drop it a few dollars....let'em get all happy....then come fall we'll start easing it back up and blame wintertime problems this time"

No one is happy, just hoping! Hoping that America will wake up and realize that we can not allow production of oil to decrease in the United States while also watching demand increase.

Hoping that people will wake up to the serious Supply and Demand problem we have now and in the future for oil. That even if more drilling does not bring down prices, it will surely help in keeping them from rising at the rates they have over the past two Presidents.

I personally am not happy, but I do hold out hope for our Country!


This DOES pertain to Ahole:



Why a few posts back you were slappin' yourself on your back...quoting yourself, calling yourself a ' great man' ....just about pizzin' on the floor you were so giddy... :roll: :roll: :roll:
 

backhoeboogie

Well-known member
aplusmnt said:
No one is happy,

Wrong aplus. The independant small potato oil production folks who have been scratching by in domestic fields, are very happy. They are laughing all the way to the bank. They haven't had it this good since Carter's blunders. If you are producing 50 barrels per day on old played out fields, you are doing great rgiht now, even after production cost.

There are a lot of hard working folks around here that were earning just meager livings since the early 80's. Now they are doing great.
 

aplusmnt

Well-known member
backhoeboogie said:
aplusmnt said:
No one is happy,

Wrong aplus. The independant small potato oil production folks who have been scratching by in domestic fields, are very happy. They are laughing all the way to the bank. They haven't had it this good since Carter's blunders. If you are producing 50 barrels per day on old played out fields, you are doing great rgiht now, even after production cost.

There are a lot of hard working folks around here that were earning just meager livings since the early 80's. Now they are doing great.

I stand corrected! Here in Kansas we have some of them same situations, wells that were not producing enough when oil was cheap, but now they are back online.

I just wish they would come a little farther southeast :wink:
 

CRS

New member
Check out this theory on what caused the runup to almost $150 and now the decline back into the $125 range.

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1217265595.php

SemGroup (speculator) was betting oil would go down and lost $3.2 billion when they were forced to cover.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
CRS said:
Check out this theory on what caused the runup to almost $150 and now the decline back into the $125 range.

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1217265595.php

SemGroup (speculator) was betting oil would go down and lost $3.2 billion when they were forced to cover.

Verrrrry Interesting--This almost mirrors exactly what the former CFTC Commissioners and others testified to Congress that was happening- and the fact that they had been told by other commissioners still serving that they had been told in 2001 by the Administration to not enforce any laws regarding this trading :???: ....

So, how do you lose $3.2 billion dollars in crude oil trading and how did that affect the price? The answer is with an obscene number of contracts on the wrong side of a rising market on the short side. That’s smack-dab where SemGroup was positioned, with more (and perhaps much more) than 100,000 short futures and options contracts.

The exact number of contracts that SemGroup actually held short has not been revealed. However, by dividing the total loss listed in bankruptcy filings and published reports, by a reasonable loss per barrel, it’s not hard to deduce the total number of short contracts held. To appreciate what a 100,000 contract position represents, it is the equivalent to 100 million barrels of oil, or more than every barrel produced and consumed in the entire world for a day.

In terms of dollar amounts, it appears that SemGroup held short positions on more than $15 billion worth of crude oil and perhaps much more. In practical terms, it would take a position of that size going against you in order to generate a loss of $3 billion. You should be asking yourself, how did the NYMEX and the CFTC allow SemGroup, or anyone, to amass such a large position that it, obviously, couldn’t stand behind? What do these regulators do all day?

I’m certain that when the details emerge, we will read of a story that has recurred in previous market debacles, namely, an initial market miscalculation compounded by repeated attempts to get whole by doubling up. As those increased bets don’t pan out, and margin calls can’t be met, the game is over in an instant and the loss is recorded.

In this case, it’s easy to see, based upon the timeline, how SemGroup’s trading debacle influenced oil prices, first up, then down. As the end came near for SemGroup’s large, increasing short position, that position was forcibly bought back (probably by SemGroup’s lead broker, said to be Barclays). This accounted, by my calculations, for the last $15 to $20 increase in the price of oil, up to the $147 price high. When the forced buyback of the short position was concluded, a buying void was suddenly created and prices then fell $20+ to date. So, not only did SemGroup manage to lose over $3 billion and go bankrupt in the process, it also dramatically influenced the price of oil and fuel for the rest of the world.
 

Mike

Well-known member
"Let me be clear here. I am not suggesting that the price of crude oil doubled in less than a year solely because of SemGroup or any other short speculators, pretending to be legitimate hedgers, bought back those losing short positions, driving prices higher. Obviously, oil is the biggest commodity market by far, and it takes real fundamentals to move the price by that magnitude."
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
Mike said:
"Let me be clear here. I am not suggesting that the price of crude oil doubled in less than a year solely because of SemGroup or any other short speculators, pretending to be legitimate hedgers, bought back those losing short positions, driving prices higher. Obviously, oil is the biggest commodity market by far, and it takes real fundamentals to move the price by that magnitude."

Yep- and I don't think anyone ever suggested it was just speculation-- its a combination of numerous factors- all of which need fixing...

This does raise one question- if this group is this involved- how many other groups could be just as much or more involved (1-100-1000's) and how far does this influence really reach... :???:
Thats the reasons the markets need transparency-- and be required to be traded in the open...

But right now the Repubs won't allow the speculation bill -- and the Dems won't allow the drill more bill...And both are all over the place on the alternative energy bills....

So they sit and play games speachifying all day and blaming each other while the oilmen make money and the guy on the street suffers.....


I received this e-mail from the House Ag committee on the status of H.R. 6604, the Commodity Markets Transparency and Accountability Act of 2008......

House Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin C. Peterson of Minnesota released the following statement today regarding the floor vote
on H.R. 6604, the Commodity Markets Transparency and Accountability Act of 2008:

"With the support of more than 290 Members of Congress, including more than 75 Republicans, H.R. 6604 was well on its way to being
passed over the two-thirds vote requirement, sending a clear signal that transparency and enforcement would return to the
commodities and futures markets. Then Republican leadership demanded that Members change their votes in order to protect President
Bush
.


H.R. 6604 is a bipartisan bill that passed the Agriculture Committee by voice vote. It is the product of a comprehensive series of
hearings to examine the issues surrounding futures trading from all sides. And it clearly has enough support to pass this House.
We will continue to pursue meaningful steps to address the conditions that have thrown some futures markets into disorder and hope
that Members will have the courage of their convictions to join us."


The U.S. House Committee on Agriculture web site http://agriculture.house.gov has additional information on this and other subjects.

Here is the bill:
http://www.washingtonwatch.com/bills/show/110_HR_6604.html
 

RobertMac

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
House Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin C. Peterson of Minnesota released the following statement today regarding the floor vote
on H.R. 6604, the Commodity Markets Transparency and Accountability Act of 2008:

"With the support of more than 290 Members of Congress, including more than 75 Republicans, H.R. 6604 was well on its way to being
passed over the two-thirds vote requirement, sending a clear signal that transparency and enforcement would return to the
commodities and futures markets. Then Republican leadership demanded that Members change their votes in order to protect President
Bush
.


H.R. 6604 is a bipartisan bill that passed the Agriculture Committee by voice vote. It is the product of a comprehensive series of
hearings to examine the issues surrounding futures trading from all sides. And it clearly has enough support to pass this House.
We will continue to pursue meaningful steps to address the conditions that have thrown some futures markets into disorder and hope
that Members will have the courage of their convictions to join us."


The U.S. House Committee on Agriculture web site http://agriculture.house.gov has additional information on this and other subjects.
Here is a learning moment on bias for you, OT...wait, I take that back, you're not going to learn anything. You know how Congress works...you are just adding your Hate Bush bias!!!

You do a good job of illustrating the bias with your bold and underlining. The lie comes with "in order to protect President Bush". The fact is that the Rep. leadership knows that if they let this bill through (one I'm sure many support and I believe is needed), they will lose any leverage to get a drilling bill brought up for a vote. This is the way Congress has always worked and is the only way the minority party has any ability to have their concerns addressed. This one little phrase is put there to feed you Bush Haters and to be a sound bite for the drive-by media. Bias is subtle, but when you know what to look for, it's all over the place. The drive-by media isn't even subtle about it any more as exhibited by the Obama overseas 'rock star' tour. The mainstream media uses the First Amendment not as freedom of speech, but freedom to influence a Presidential election!!!!! Everyone, including liberals, should be outraged by this!!! :mad: :mad:

And, if you had an ounce of fairness about you, you would also extend the titles of King and Queen to Reid and Pelosi!!!!!!!!!!! :p :mad: :p :mad:
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
RobertMac said:
Bias is subtle, but when you know what to look for, it's all over the place. The drive-by media isn't even subtle about it any more as exhibited by the Obama overseas 'rock star' tour. The mainstream media uses the First Amendment not as freedom of speech, but freedom to influence a Presidential election!!!!! Everyone, including liberals, should be outraged by this!!!

And, if you had an ounce of fairness about you, you would also extend the titles of King and Queen to Reid and Pelosi!!!!!!!!!!! :p :mad: :p :mad:
This use of the media kind of reminds me of how the then new President, who the people were unaware of was a liar and a cheat, then crowned himself King and used the media to put out false and purposely altered and censored false material to build the public into a warmongering emotional state- and he falsely led them into war....

Since the media has discovered thru the testimony of many witness's how they were used for such a crime- thats why they are much more vocal about expressing worry for being overly biased...


I don't rate them as high as your chosen Champion does...I can't heap them with praise like he can-- Maybe Duke and Duchess...If they and the others in the congress had been doing their jobs- we wouldn't have any King..
 

olderroper

Well-known member
kolanuraven said:
Why are ya'll crowing and all excited that oil is STILL 2x's what it should be?


That makes no sense whatsoever!

You guys are worse than women to rave about sale when the goods were marked up 30% to start with....then take 10% off that price!!! :roll: :roll: :roll:

Keep getting and stayng all ' giddy' about it and oil will STAY at or about $4.00 per gallon.

The fall in the overall price, what little amt it may be, has not equally changed the cost of gas now has it? NO


Thump your chest all you want....but it makes no difference. You are playing right into their hands.

" Let's drop it a few dollars....let'em get all happy....then come fall we'll start easing it back up and blame wintertime problems this time"
The communists had a method. One step backward, two steps forward. I see that method being used in the oil market. I keep running across people who know 's someone who works at a refinery and they are saying there is so much oil on storage they dont know what to do with it.

The govt taxes and regulations prevent many wells from even pumping oil
Somebody is taking a big profit off of the rest of us.

Demand is slowing, maybe because some of us learned how to turn water into gas and cut our useage or started limiting our extra trips.
 

RobertMac

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
RobertMac said:
Bias is subtle, but when you know what to look for, it's all over the place. The drive-by media isn't even subtle about it any more as exhibited by the Obama overseas 'rock star' tour. The mainstream media uses the First Amendment not as freedom of speech, but freedom to influence a Presidential election!!!!! Everyone, including liberals, should be outraged by this!!!

And, if you had an ounce of fairness about you, you would also extend the titles of King and Queen to Reid and Pelosi!!!!!!!!!!! :p :mad: :p :mad:
This use of the media kind of reminds me of how the then new President, who the people were unaware of was a liar and a cheat, then crowned himself King and used the media to put out false and purposely altered and censored false material to build the public into a warmongering emotional state- and he falsely led them into war....

Since the media has discovered thru the testimony of many witness's how they were used for such a crime- thats why they are much more vocal about expressing worry for being overly biased...


I don't rate them as high as your chosen Champion does...I can't heap them with praise like he can-- Maybe Duke and Duchess...If they and the others in the congress had been doing their jobs- we wouldn't have any King..
Your brilliance never fails to amaze me!!! :lol2: :lol2: :lol2:
The mainstream media, that has been openly bias for Democrats since Nixon or before, was so dumb as to be mislead by, as you libs describe, "an idiot of a President"!!!! Come on, Liberal Old Timer, which way is it...is he a brilliant deceiver or an idiot????? You can have it both ways...just shows the emptiness of your argument!!!! :lol2: :lol2: :lol2:
 
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