Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Monday, November 03, 2008
On Monday, the final full day of campaigning for Election 2008, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows Barack Obama with 52% of the vote while John McCain is six points back at 46%. That’s up a single point for Obama from his 51% to 46% advantage yesterday. There is just one more night of tracking and our final results for Election 2008 will be published here tomorrow morning at 9:30 Eastern.
When the Election behind us, daily tracking will shift to coverage of the President-elect and the transition to a new Administration (a FREE daily e-mail update is available).
In the Electoral College projections, Rasmussen Reports now shows Obama leading 260 to 160. When states that are leaning in one way or the other are included, Obama leads 313 to 160. A total of 270 Electoral College votes are needed for victory.
Six states with 65 Electoral College votes remain in the Toss-Up category—Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Nevada, and Ohio. All six of those states voted Republican four years ago.
Four states are only leaning in Obama’s direction at this time—Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, and Virginia. Four years ago, New Hampshire voted Democratic while the other three voted Republican.
For McCain to get the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the White House, he would need to win just about all of the Toss-Up states and those that are leaning to the Democrats. Polling from all ten states show potentially competitive races, but Obama is ahead in many and none show a clear lead for McCain.
Tonight, Rasmussen Reports will issue our final wave of Battleground State polls for Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members.
Unless McCain pulls off a stunning comeback, history will note the final two weeks of September as the decisive and defining moment of this campaign. On September 14, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll showed McCain up by three points. Then, Lehman Brothers collapsed and the Wall Street debacle began. McCain’s lead disappeared almost immediately. By September 26, Obama reached the 50% level of support and was ahead by five percentage points.
The Democratic nominee never let go of that lead. Today is the 39th straight day that Obama’s support has stayed between 50% and 52%. Only once during that entire time did his lead fall below four points and it occasionally expanded to eight .