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Open Canadian border arrives this week

RobertMac

Well-known member
Cattle Market Notes: Near-Record Kills; Atkins Diet?
by John Anderson, MSU

As noted, this week federally inspected cattle slaughter is expected to total 708,000 head. This is the largest weekly federally inspected cattle slaughter since the week ending September 20, 2003. The large supplies of market ready cattle that the market has been anticipating for some time would appear to have arrived.

What this means is that some pretty serious pressure is coming in the wholesale beef market. Where cattle prices go from here depends critically upon how wholesale prices hold up under this pressure. There's not much to do but wait and see. Wouldn't it be nice to be enjoying strong export sales about now? And a revival of the Atkins diet wouldn't hurt anything either. I wonder if anybody still remembers that?

CattleNetwork.com

I wish someone had some money to help revive those high protein diets! CBB????????? Maybe they will fund a NCBA monitored study to see if this is a good idea?!?!?! :roll:
 

Econ101

Well-known member
RobertMac said:
Cattle Market Notes: Near-Record Kills; Atkins Diet?
by John Anderson, MSU

As noted, this week federally inspected cattle slaughter is expected to total 708,000 head. This is the largest weekly federally inspected cattle slaughter since the week ending September 20, 2003. The large supplies of market ready cattle that the market has been anticipating for some time would appear to have arrived.

What this means is that some pretty serious pressure is coming in the wholesale beef market. Where cattle prices go from here depends critically upon how wholesale prices hold up under this pressure. There's not much to do but wait and see. Wouldn't it be nice to be enjoying strong export sales about now? And a revival of the Atkins diet wouldn't hurt anything either. I wonder if anybody still remembers that?

CattleNetwork.com

I wish someone had some money to help revive those high protein diets! CBB????????? Maybe they will fund a NCBA monitored study to see if this is a good idea?!?!?! :roll:

A little inroads to Japan's markets would help right about now. Too bad the USDA has messed that one up.
 

RobertMac

Well-known member
Big Muddy rancher said:
Big Muddy rancher said:
Tell us Robert Mac how many of those 708,000 Are Canadian?


I am still waiting Robert, How many of those Canadian Cattle did it take to depress this market?

Supply/demand is like a balance beam that only takes a feather to become unbalanced...not a brick. According to Canfax, 98% of Canada's exports come south(89% to USA, 9% to Mexico)...in other words, stays in North America adding to supply. Without exports going outside North America, supply increases are out pacing demand and we have a $10-15/cwt. drop in USA live cattle prices. Multiply the roughly $100/head decrease in packer expenditure for live cattle in the USA market and you should understand the effect of the Canadian feather. In the big picture of the beef industry, a reduction in USA live cattle prices has the largest impact on margins and packer profitability. As much as you may dislike admitting it, the USA beef market is the big fish in the world beef marketing bowl!!! :eek: :shock:
 

Big Muddy rancher

Well-known member
Blame it on the FEATHER.

US marketings in Feb. were the lowest since 1996.

US Cattle on feed in 2006 a record large for each months.


US cattle on feed up 9% over 2005.


You guys have done this to yourselves just like every other time the cycle goes up and down. Blame somebody else for what is a natural part of the cycle.
 

Murgen

Well-known member
Don't forget, Canada's 89% only translates to 3.8% for the US. Which has more effect 9%? Or the 30lbs extra carcass weight on that 9%, compared to 3.8%, HMMM?
 
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Anonymous

Guest
Murgen said:
Don't forget, Canada's 89% only translates to 3.8% for the US. Which has more effect 9%? Or the 30lbs extra carcass weight on that 9%, compared to 3.8%, HMMM?

But without the 3.8% Canadian cattle that 30 lbs you are now seeing might not be there- Does that then mean it would equate to 7.6% or more :???:

You can play with figures all you want--all speculation--BUT there is one FACT, when the US border was closed to all Canadian cattle it equated out to be RECORD high US cattle prices across the board......
 

Manitoba_Rancher

Well-known member
OT-

How long do you think the consumer would have continued to buy that high priced beef in the markets when there is specials on chicken right beside the beef. You cant blame this one on Canadian cattle. There is a glut of poultry in North America and its going to hurt the price of beef even worse than it has.
 

Tam

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
Murgen said:
Don't forget, Canada's 89% only translates to 3.8% for the US. Which has more effect 9%? Or the 30lbs extra carcass weight on that 9%, compared to 3.8%, HMMM?

But without the 3.8% Canadian cattle that 30 lbs you are now seeing might not be there- Does that then mean it would equate to 7.6% or more :???:

You can play with figures all you want--all speculation--BUT there is one FACT, when the US border was closed to all Canadian cattle it equated out to be RECORD high US cattle prices across the board......

From Canfax May 5
Weekly beef exports to the US have averaged 5265 tonnes/week in 2006 or 2.51% of weekly US beef production. During the same weeks in 2005, the average shipment was 6288 tonnes/week or 3.14% of US beef production. In 2002 the average weekly shipment was 6682 tonnes or 3.03% of US beef production. Roughly 1000 to 1400 fewer tonnes per week have been shipped into the US compared to 2005 and 2002 representing a decline of 16% this year over last.

Meanwhile slaughter cattle exports have been on a roll in 2006. The average weekly shipment so far this year has been 16,394.head or 2.74% of the weekly US slaughter. This compares to 11,651 head for the same time in 2002 which represented 1.81%of US slaughter then. After peeking a few weeks ago at just over 20,000 head and 3.4% of US slaughter, exports have slowed to 14,000 head or 2.26% of US slaughter. The 4700 head difference in 2006 does equate to about 1450 tonnes on a product weight conversion basis. Slaughter cattle exports should be no more than 2% of the US slaughter through the summer of 2006.

According to this we shipped you very little more "beef" as the boxed beef we were shipping in 2005 (while you were enjoying your record high cattle prices) is now in 2006 coming on the hoof. So tell us again how our cattle are affecting your cattle prices in light of the fact we aren't really exporting that much more BEEF. :roll:
 
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Anonymous

Guest
MR-Tam-- I guess we won't know what would happen unless the border closes again- you can speculate and bounce figures around any which way you want-- but when it was shut the record prices were there- that is a fact.....
 

Murgen

Well-known member
And the last time you saw record prices, was the border open or closed?

OT is partly right, he has looked at one factor, discounted others, and made his judgement!

How many slices in a pie OT?
 

Tam

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
MR-Tam-- I guess we won't know what would happen unless the border closes again- you can speculate and bounce figures around any which way you want-- but when it was shut the record prices were there- that is a fact.....

PRICES were there- that is a fact :wink: The fact is that the beef coming from Canada has little to do with the price you recieve. and the was proven by the fact your cattle prices continued to climb after record amounts of Canadian boxed beef were re-introduced to your markets. And the fact is we are not shipping that much more beef now that the border is open to Live cattle than we did when you achieved your record high cattle prices. The fact is You just have to blame someone for your price drop so I suggest you take a look at the real competition which is a glut of cheap chicken like MR said. It may also have something to do with consumer confidence since R-CALF claimed to the media that BSE beef is a health risk to humans, and the US has their own cases and failed investigations into them to boot. Maybe just maybe you should be blaming R-CALF as this drop in price could be a result of all the media attention to Leo's month. :wink:
 

agman

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
Murgen said:
Don't forget, Canada's 89% only translates to 3.8% for the US. Which has more effect 9%? Or the 30lbs extra carcass weight on that 9%, compared to 3.8%, HMMM?

But without the 3.8% Canadian cattle that 30 lbs you are now seeing might not be there- Does that then mean it would equate to 7.6% or more :???:

You can play with figures all you want--all speculation--BUT there is one FACT, when the US border was closed to all Canadian cattle it equated out to be RECORD high US cattle prices across the board......

OT, the record prices in 2003 were more the result of extremely tight domestic supplies during the summer and fall. The polar opposite is true now-record buildup this summer. Also in 2003 the U.S benefited from a sharp upturn in exports when the Canadian BSE incident occurred. So the summation is that extremely tight domestic cattle supplies coincided with a surge in demand, both domestic and export, that caused record prices.
 

RobertMac

Well-known member
Big Muddy rancher said:
Blame it on the FEATHER.

US marketings in Feb. were the lowest since 1996.

US Cattle on feed in 2006 a record large for each months.


US cattle on feed up 9% over 2005.


You guys have done this to yourselves just like every other time the cycle goes up and down. Blame somebody else for what is a natural part of the cycle.

BMr, you are right, it's not Canada's beef because there's no such thing...it's all Tyson's and Cargill's beef. Canadian processors disappeared years ago.
 
A

Anonymous

Guest
RobertMac said:
Big Muddy rancher said:
Blame it on the FEATHER.

US marketings in Feb. were the lowest since 1996.

US Cattle on feed in 2006 a record large for each months.


US cattle on feed up 9% over 2005.


You guys have done this to yourselves just like every other time the cycle goes up and down. Blame somebody else for what is a natural part of the cycle.

BMr, you are right, it's not Canada's beef because there's no such thing...it's all Tyson's and Cargill's beef. Canadian processors disappeared years ago.

And this part of Tysons/Cargills beef helps account for the 9% + the 30lb figure......


More Young Canada Cattle To U.S.
Kansas City (Dow Jones) — The number of feeder cattle and slaughter steers and heifers coming into the U.S. from Canada through the first four months of this year is running about 40 percent above the average for the same categories and time frame in 1999 through 2003.
Those years offer the latest comparison since no live cattle were allowed to be imported from there in 2004 or during those months in 2005.
 

Econ101

Well-known member
Oldtimer said:
RobertMac said:
Big Muddy rancher said:
Blame it on the FEATHER.

US marketings in Feb. were the lowest since 1996.

US Cattle on feed in 2006 a record large for each months.


US cattle on feed up 9% over 2005.


You guys have done this to yourselves just like every other time the cycle goes up and down. Blame somebody else for what is a natural part of the cycle.

BMr, you are right, it's not Canada's beef because there's no such thing...it's all Tyson's and Cargill's beef. Canadian processors disappeared years ago.

And this part of Tysons/Cargills beef helps account for the 9% + the 30lb figure......


More Young Canada Cattle To U.S.
Kansas City (Dow Jones) — The number of feeder cattle and slaughter steers and heifers coming into the U.S. from Canada through the first four months of this year is running about 40 percent above the average for the same categories and time frame in 1999 through 2003.
Those years offer the latest comparison since no live cattle were allowed to be imported from there in 2004 or during those months in 2005.

Pretty easy to back 'em up in the yards with captive supplies. Courts gave them a free ride on market manipulation. To expect they will do anything different than before is naive.
 

agman

Well-known member
Econ101 said:
Oldtimer said:
RobertMac said:
Big Muddy rancher said:
Blame it on the FEATHER.

US marketings in Feb. were the lowest since 1996.

US Cattle on feed in 2006 a record large for each months.


US cattle on feed up 9% over 2005.


You guys have done this to yourselves just like every other time the cycle goes up and down. Blame somebody else for what is a natural part of the cycle.

BMr, you are right, it's not Canada's beef because there's no such thing...it's all Tyson's and Cargill's beef. Canadian processors disappeared years ago.

And this part of Tysons/Cargills beef helps account for the 9% + the 30lb figure......


More Young Canada Cattle To U.S.
Kansas City (Dow Jones) — The number of feeder cattle and slaughter steers and heifers coming into the U.S. from Canada through the first four months of this year is running about 40 percent above the average for the same categories and time frame in 1999 through 2003.
Those years offer the latest comparison since no live cattle were allowed to be imported from there in 2004 or during those months in 2005.

Pretty easy to back 'em up in the yards with captive supplies. Courts gave them a free ride on market manipulation. To expect they will do anything different than before is naive.

Do you know what the captive supply total is? Please make the post.
 

RobertMac

Well-known member
Agman, Are these Canadian cattle and beef a burden on our supply?
I remember when you said that if our export markets opened the same time as the Canadian border opened, live cattle prices would remain strong...our export markets aren't open! :? I guess that means Canadian cattle and beef are having a negative impact on USA live cattle prices. Packers are saving...what...about a million dollars a day???
I guess BMr missed that.
 

Big Muddy rancher

Well-known member
RobertMac said:
Agman, Are these Canadian cattle and beef a burden on our supply?
I remember when you said that if our export markets opened the same time as the Canadian border opened, live cattle prices would remain strong...our export markets aren't open! :? I guess that means Canadian cattle and beef are having a negative impact on USA live cattle prices. Packers are saving...what...about a million dollars a day???
I guess BMr missed that.

How do you figure packers are saving a million dollars a day? If they can sell meat at a price they have to lower costs. If they work on a margin they should be making the same. If thet have payed to much for cattle and can't sell the beef they lose money.
 
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