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Please Panic Orderly!

Mike

Well-known member
Seven Indonesian Bird Flu Cases Linked to Patients (Update1)

May 23 (Bloomberg) -- All seven people infected with bird flu in a cluster of Indonesian cases can be linked to other patients, according to disease trackers investigating possible human-to-human transmission of the H5N1 virus.

A team of international experts has been unable to find animals that might have infected the people, the World Health Organization said in a statement today. In one case, a 10-year- old boy who caught the virus from his aunt may have passed it to his father, the first time officials have seen evidence of a three-person chain of infection, an agency spokeswoman said. Six of the seven people have died.

Almost all of the 218 cases of H5N1 infections confirmed by the WHO since late 2003 can be traced to direct contact with sick or dead birds. Strong evidence of human-to-human transmission may prompt the global health agency to convene a panel of experts and consider raising the pandemic alert level, said Maria Cheng, an agency spokeswoman.

``Considering the evidence and the size of the cluster, it's a possibility,'' Cheng said in a telephone interview. ``It depends on what we're dealing with in Indonesia. It's an evolving situation.''

The 32-year-old father in the cluster of cases on the island of Sumatra was ``closely involved in caring for his son, and this contact is considered a possible source of infection,'' The WHO said in its statement. Three others, including the sole survivor in the group, spent a night in a ``small'' room with the boy's aunt, who later died and was buried before health officials could conduct tests for the H5N1 virus.

`Directly Linked'

``All confirmed cases in the cluster can be directly linked to close and prolonged exposure to a patient during a phase of severe illness,'' the WHO said.

While investigators have been unable to rule out human-to- human transmission in the Sumatran cluster, they continue to search for other explanations for how the infections arose, the WHO statement said.

Health experts are concerned that if H5N1 gains the ability to spread easily among people, it may set off a lethal global outbreak of flu. While some flu pandemics are relatively mild, the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic killed an estimated 50 million people worldwide.

So far, studies of the Sumatran outbreak and genetic analyses of the virus don't indicate the virus has undergone major changes, Cheng said. Scientists at WHO-affiliated labs in the U.S. and Hong Kong found no evidence that the Indonesian strain of H5N1 has gained genes from pigs or humans that might change its power or spreading ability, WHO said.

Mutations

``These viruses mutate all the time and it's difficult to know what the mutations mean,'' Cheng said.

Health officials earlier found strong evidence of direct human-to-human spread of H5N1 in Thailand in 2004. Scientists reported in the Jan. 27, 2005, issue of the New England Journal of Medicine that the H5N1 virus probably spread from an 11-year- old girl in Thailand to her aunt and mother, killing the mother and daughter. People who had more casual contact with the girl didn't become infected.

In the Sumatran cluster, close, direct contact with a severely ill person was also needed for spread, Cheng said. Preliminary findings from the investigation indicate that the woman who died, considered to be the initial case, was coughing frequently while the three others spent the night in the same room. One of the three, a second brother, is the sole survivor. The other two, her sons, died.

``It looks like the same behavior pattern'' of close contact and caretaking during illness with the bird flu virus, Cheng said. To raise the level of pandemic alert ``it would have to be transmissible from more casual contact.''

General Community

The Indonesian Ministry of Health and international scientists are continuing their investigation to trace the origins of the infections, the WHO said in its statement.

``Priority is now being given to the search for additional cases of influenza-like illness in other family members, close contacts, and the general community,'' the WHO said. ``To date, the investigation has found no evidence of spread within the general community and no evidence that efficient human-to-human transmission has occurred.''
 

bse-tester

Well-known member
Reader 2 wrote:

Whew. My daughter the virologist needs to explain to me what the next step is. It sounds like it has passed from human to human but only in very close contact. When does it mutate to pass under less than close contact? Under what circumstances?

Reader, you might want to consider a number of things that may well have an affect on how Bird Flu spreads. One that immediately comes to mind is the fact that we are seeing the blooming of this event in more countries that have high mean temperatures and high humidity levels. The level of the ambiant temperature plays an enormous role in the survivability of virus/microbial borne diseases. Here in Northern Alberta, we generally only see flu (typical) outbreaks at certain times of the year. These events usually occur at times when the weather is a little more bearable and warmer. If we are faced with the onslaught of global warming and higher ambient temperatures and higher humidity levels due to the elevated amounts of airborne water molecules and/or higher levels of rainfall and humidity levels that simply will not quit, it is my humble opinion that we shall see the perfect breeding ground form for Bird Flu and similar diseases. The contagion can easily attach itself to warm water vapor/droplets and float endlessly (hours or even days under the right conditions) until it finds its way into our wide open and totally unprotected little lungs. I recently (last week) was in Heathrow Airport in london, UK where only a few days prior, a person arrived there from Africa with the disturbing symptoms of a flu like condition - vomiting, shortness of breath, convulsions and high temperature. THis was all manifested while still on the aircraft prior to landing at London Airport. The authorities simply asked the passengers to report to their local GP to be checked should they begin to display any symptoms at all. Too scary for me to even think about. The cabin crew and flight crew were ordered to get an immediate checkup.

It turned out to be Ebola!!

The very fact that this person made it from Africa to England carrying one of the most hideous and deadly diseases known, is reason enough to bring me serious concern as to what the so-called authorities are doing to contain people who complain - or who don't complain - of having a runny nose and a few aches? But then, what if the disease mutates within the host in that mucous membrane that lines the lungs and upper wind-pipe and their breath is then shared in an elevator, an airplane, at a party or simply by talking with someone? Consider the potential for the transmission of this virus via insects such as the mosquito?? How weird can that get???

Can it be that we are simply never going to be prepared and that the governments who are there to protect us simply have no idea as to how to do that??
 

bse-tester

Well-known member
Reader 2 Wrote:

The only thing is that the flu seems to spread in the winter here -- maybe we get it in closed, heated places?

It is entirely possible that it can also linger in HVAC as does Legionaires Disease. They display similar symptoms. I guess the entire study on how these particular diseases spread, survive or simply propogate outside of the perfect medium - us - is something of a crap-shoot inthat we humans tend to think that we are the masters of our world and that is not true. These little buggars have been around for many millions of years and have a way of surviving that we can only admire.

Winter conditions can allow anthrax to linger safely for years in soil only to become just as deadly once the soil warms to the summer heat. Bird Flu and other contagens are able to survive being transported in the atmosphere or through heating systems, closed or open environments and will most certainly find a host at the end of the day. All we can do is guess or offer up potential safe measures that may well assist us in preventing these pesky little killers from finding us as their next host.

What if the Bird Flu virus were to propogate in the droppings that birds leave all over the place and I recall one study that was done in the UK that dealt with birds carrying Botulism from one pond to another simply through their being subjected to the droppings of other infected birds being deposited in the waters of the pond(s) and then carried in the feathers - in water droplets - to other ponds or bird collection areas such as trees, rooftops or the local garden bird-bath. The potential for possible transmission means is endless but most of the ones suggested may well be somewhat fanciful and not something to worry about - but one really never knows.

I suspect that the Indonesian family that lost six members may well have been sharing small confined spaces such as bedrooms or kitchens but again, in a warm climate with high humidity. I am of the opinion that heat and humidity are major factors. One last thing I do recall is that HIV tainted blood or other liquids, will, when left to dry out naturally on a glass sheet, for a period of well in excess of 2 months until it looked like dried paint all cracked and curled up, will not degenerate from their original danger level at all. If one were to ingest or absorb that material in any way the chance of infection remains as high as it would have if that item was still warm from the host body. How long can Ebola, Bird Flu or any other deadly disease linger outside of the perfect growth medium - us?? Science is such fun!!!
 

Mike

Well-known member
I have a good friend who is in D.C. this week at a hearing/conference with Homeland Security about all sorts of crap the CIA buried at Ft. Dietrick in the 1940's and 50's. He was head of the analysis crew that dug up and tested vials, cans, and jars of "potato blight", "brucellosis", "smallpox", "cowpox", "anthrax", "BVD", and a whole lot of others that I have never heard of.

The way they found about the dump was some cows grazing the adjoining place came down with an Epizootic Hemorragic Disease that was different from any that had been seen.

What's scary is the diggers would bring in a vial, etc. of something they didn't know what it was and it would take up to six months to identify the virus or bacteria in their state-of-the art lab.

Bad part about a prion in this situation is you can't see it even through the electron microscopes..
 

bse-tester

Well-known member
Mike, in the south of England, where I am from, there is an area about the size of Central Park (NYC) that is completely fenced off. WIthin that area, there are pipes coming out of the ground and cameras on the top of the fences. It is NOT a Nuke site or missle silos, but a chemical dump used by the armed forces roughly since 1948. I can only hazard a guess as to what is in that ground but I am sure it is not made by Kelloggs Cornflakes.

Also, here is Alberta, a number of miles from an oil town called Drayton Valley, there is a site that is approximately 40 clicks into the bush that has 12 foot high fences around it and these fences are drapped with razor wire. I drove in there once only to be faced with a large contingent of guys in Blue Suits and faced masks (Full masks with filter packs on them) and they literally forced me to turn around before I could get too much further. The sign on the fence say that it is a site for the disposal of oil field contaminants and yet with the amount of security there, it is doubtfull that contaminated soil or water from oil wells or well sites is being dumped there. The excuse for the razor wire was "....to keep young kids out in the event they came out here to party!" Like the local kids would drive 40 klms on muddy roads through the forest to go to a place with razor wire fences just to have a drink and a little fun!!!!

Something stinks here in Alberta.

I have watched trucks covered completely with tarps and displaying some rather unusual shapes under them drive into that place and it appears that they are unloaded under cover of darkness. Strange places are out there and hey Mike, where the heck is Scully and Molder when we need them???? I think we still have some "X-Files" that are still operational. We have seen Moose and Deer within a mile or so of this plant that have stunted growth and elk and moose calves with extremely short hind legs - I mean half the length of what they should be and that is too weird to explain. Oh my, my watch stopped again!!! Ron.
 

Mike

Well-known member
reader (the Second) said:
Mike said:
I have a good friend who is in D.C. this week at a hearing/conference with Homeland Security about all sorts of crap the CIA buried at Ft. Dietrick in the 1940's and 50's. He was head of the analysis crew that dug up and tested vials, cans, and jars of "potato blight", "brucellosis", "smallpox", "cowpox", "anthrax", "BVD", and a whole lot of others that I have never heard of.

The way they found about the dump was some cows grazing the adjoining place came down with an Epizootic Hemorragic Disease that was different from any that had been seen.

What's scary is the diggers would bring in a vial, etc. of something they didn't know what it was and it would take up to six months to identify the virus or bacteria in their state-of-the art lab.

Bad part about a prion in this situation is you can't see it even through the electron microscopes..

Gee thanks, Mike, this is my neighborhood you're talking about (well 60 miles away). I have had customers at Ft. Deterick and been up there a couple of times myself for business. Yuck. Are our governments getting smarter? Don't think so.

Dave, (my friend at Deitrick) (sp?) Was telling me about a General who came to visit one day unannounced. Him being a general he just walked right on the compound and no one asked him any questions.

Only catch was when he got ready to leave. He had to strip down, leave his clothes at the compound for a thorough cleaning, take a shower in 2 or 3 different solutions and go home wearing coveralls.

Dave said those procedures kept the visitors down to a minimum.

There is no telling what is buried underground in various places worldwide.

What gets me is the "Superfund" sites that are contaminated with corporate sloppiness and the guvment winds up footing the bill.
 

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