We will see substantial swings in Oil $, from now on. Used to be the US had the market control, that ended in 1970's, when they past "peak".
At that point, OPEC began to manipulate price. Saudia Arabia has more or less reached "peak' now also. Proven by the lack of increase in Production a year ago. OPEC did not want the price of oil to go to $147, they have an equilbrium price set, and they were ramping up production, they were worried that they were going to damage the world demand and economy. They are smart enough to know it does no good to bancrupt your customers. If they would have had extra production capacity, they put have turned on the taps. I don't believe it was only the banking/housing deal that got us to where we are now! Oil played a part in damaged growth and maxed out National credit cards, around the world also. Countries like Iran are starving for sales now, they pre-spent their riches too, I think. $147 cut into their longer term earning potential.
Now that the world has reached "peak", or very close to it. There will be fluctuations depending on outside forces such as: nature, civil unrest, war, etc. And not so much by supply manipulations. The only way they can manipulate supply now, is to lower it. But demand is continuing to grow, so there is no need to manipulate supply lower, to raise prices.
There are tankers sitting full in the Gulf of Mex. And the price has not decreased at all.
The only reason oil is at $40+, is because of the world economy. (Domestic Demand has not decreased that much, yet) We're probably at an equilbrium price again. If the US economy ( followed by China/India no doubt) were to take off again in the next couple of years, oil will take away the gains in an awful hurry. Don't forget China is in Recession, meaning 6% GDP growth, instead of 11%.
We can use those 2 or more years to decrease our dependency on foreign oil, but the lack of exploration at present, due to low prices/higher taxes, is only going to hurt us in the long run. Explore now, while costs are down (and you need to produce jobs)
I truly think the Obama administration is making a huge mistake right now. They should be lowering taxes on the oil/NG companies and letting them explore and build stocks like crazy.
Fill up the SOR, and find another one if possible. Alternative energy might make up the additional growth in energy needs, but it will be quite awhile before alternative energy will even dent existing demand.
Just some thoughts and observations, interested in hearing what others think!